Allison Dukes
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open
Thank you, Marty, and good morning, everyone. If you'll turn to slide 4, our investment performance was strong in the second quarter with 72% of actively managed funds in the top half of peers or beating benchmark on a five-year and a 10-year basis. This reflected continued strength in fixed income, global equities, including emerging market equities and Asian equities, all areas where we continue to see demand from clients globally. Moving to slide 5, we ended the quarter with $1.525 trillion in AUM. Of the $121 billion in AUM growth approximately $66 billion is a function of increased market values. Our diversified platform generated gross inflows in the second quarter of $114.4 billion. This is an 82% improvement from one year ago. Net long-term inflows in the second quarter were $31.1 billion representing 10.6% annualized organic growth. Active AUM net long-term inflows were $2.1 billion and passive AUM net long-term inflows were $29 billion. The retail channel generated net long-term inflows of $9.5 billion in the quarter, driven by positive ETF flows. This represents a $24.1 billion improvement in net long-term inflows from one year ago driven by significant improvement in equities in the Americas. The institutional channel generated net long-term inflows of $21.6 billion in the quarter augmented by the funding of a nearly $18 billion Australian passive mandate. Looking at retail net inflows our ETFs, excluding the QQQs generated net long-term inflows of $12.1 billion. Our global ETF platform again, excluding QQQs, again captured flows in excess of its market share of AUM in the second quarter and for the first half of 2021. Net ETF inflows in the United States included a continued high level of interest in our S&P 500 equal weight ETF, which generated $2.6 billion in net inflows in the second quarter, following $4 billion of net inflows in the first quarter. Looking at flows by geography on slide 6, you'll note that the Americas had net long-term inflows of $5 billion in the quarter, driven by net inflows in the ETF various fixed income strategies, private market CLOs and the direct real estate net long-term inflows that Marty mentioned. Asia Pacific again delivered another strong quarter with net long-term inflows of $28.3 billion. Net inflows were diversified across the region. Nearly $18 billion was from the large passive Australian mandate that funded from our institutional pipeline in May. The balance reflects $4.8 billion of net long-term inflows from Japan, $3 billion in inflows from Greater China of which the majority was from our China JV, $1.8 billion from Singapore and the remainder arising from other areas across the region. Long-term inflows for EMEA, excluding the UK, were $1 billion driven by retail flows, including net inflows into alternative, particularly our US and European senior loan funds. ETF net inflows in EMEA were $2.2 billion in the quarter. And finally, the UK experienced net long-term outflows of $3.2 billion in the second quarter, driven largely by net institutional outflows in multi-asset and investment-grade capabilities. $2.4 billion of these net long-term outflows relate to our global targeted return capability, which has $10.2 billion globally in AUM at the end of June. The overall UK net long-term outflows in the second quarter were an improvement of $2.7 billion as compared to the first quarter net long-term outflows of $5.9 billion. This improvement was driven by UK retail primarily inflows into the European equity fund and lower net outflows during the quarter across a number of fixed income and UK equity capabilities. Turning to flows across asset classes. Equity net long-term inflows of $15 billion reflect a good portion of the Australian mandate and ETFs including our S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF that I mentioned. We continue to see broad strength in fix income in the first quarter with long-term inflows of $13.6 billion. Drivers of fixed income flows include institutional net flows into investment-grade strategy and retail net long-term inflows into various municipal funds and fixed maturity products in Asia. It's worth noting that although we did have fund launches in China in the second quarter, they were not at the pace of what we experienced in the first quarter. You see this largely reflected in the $9.1 billion decrease in the net flows in the balanced asset class during the quarter to net outflows of $1.8 billion. Our alternative asset class holds many different capabilities and this is reflected in the flows we saw in the second quarter. Net long-term flows and alternatives improved by $4.5 billion over the first quarter, driven primarily by our private markets business through a combination of inflows from the newly launched CLO, direct real estate, senior loan and commodities capabilities. Included in these alternative flow results is also the GTR net outflow that I just noted. If you do exclude the global GTR net outflows alternative net long-term inflows were $7.2 billion quite significant in the quarter. Moving to Slide 7. Our institutional pipeline was $33.3 billion at June 30 reflecting the funding of the large passive indexing mandate in Asia Pacific assisted by our custom solution advisory team. Excluding the impact of the $18 billion passive mandate in the first quarter, the pipeline has increased in size and remains relatively consistent to prior quarter levels in terms of asset and fee composition. Overall, the pipeline is diversified across asset classes and geographies and our solutions capability, enabled 35% of the global institutional pipeline and created wins and customized mandates. This has contributed to meaningful growth across our institutional network warranting our continuing investment and focus. Turning to Slide 11. You'll note that our net revenues increased $52 million or 4.1% from the first quarter as a result of higher average AUM in the second quarter. The net revenue yield excluding performance fees was 34.8 basis points a decrease of 0.9 basis points from the first quarter yield level. The decrease was driven mainly by asset mix shift including higher QQQ and money market average balances as well as the impact of the large passive Australian mandate that funded in May. This decrease was partially offset by the improvement in markets in the quarter. The incremental impact relative to Q1 of higher discretionary money market fee waivers was minimal in the second quarter, but the full impact on the net revenue yield for the second quarter was 0.7 of a basis point. We do expect fee waivers to remain in place for the foreseeable future until rates begin to recover to more normalized levels. Total adjusted operating expenses increased 1.9% in the second quarter, a $14.4 million increase in operating expenses was mainly driven by variable compensation and marketing. Higher variable compensation as a result of higher revenue, offset by the reduction in payroll taxes and certain benefits from the seasonally higher levels that we experienced in the first quarter. We also recognized -- we also further recognized savings in the quarter resulting from our strategic evaluation. Marketing expenses increased $9.8 million in the second quarter mainly due to seasonally higher levels relative to the first quarter which is typically the low point for marketing spend annually. We also reevaluated the timing of various branding campaigns and launched targeted initiatives in the quarter across the globe. Operating expenses remained at lower-than-historic activity levels due to pandemic-driven impact to discretionary spending, travel and other business operations. However, we did resume some client activity in business travel late in the second quarter which is reflected in both marketing and G&A expense. As we look ahead to the third quarter our expectations are for third quarter operating expenses to be modestly higher compared to the second quarter assuming no change in market and FX levels from June 30. We expect that the higher AUM levels driven by net inflows and market improvement in the second quarter will have a modest carryover impact on both revenues and associated variable expenses in the third quarter. We also expect a modest seasonal increase in marketing-related expenses as spend typically increases in the third and fourth quarters. One area that's still more difficult to forecast at this point is, when COVID impacted travel and entertainment expense levels will begin to normalize. We are engaging in more domestic travel and in-person engagement. And we do expect to see continued modest resumption of these activities across the third quarter. Additionally, our U.S. mutual funds board has approved certain changes to the pricing of transfer agency services that we provide to our funds. As a result, we anticipate that our outsourced administration costs which we reflect in property office and technology expenses will increase by approximately $25 million on an annual basis. Offsetting this, will be a corresponding increase in service and distribution revenues, resulting in a minimal impact to operating income. We expect this new pricing structure to go into effect in the third quarter, and to be fully in place by the fourth quarter. Moving to slide 9, we update you on the progress we have made with our strategic evaluation. As we've noted before, we are looking across four key areas of our expense base. Our organizational model, our real estate footprint, management of third-party spend and technology and operations efficiency. Through this evaluation, we will continue to invest in key areas of growth, including ETFs, fixed income, China solutions, alternatives and global equities. In the second quarter, we realized $7.5 million in cost savings. $2 million of the savings was related to compensation expense and $5 million related to property, office and technology expenses. The $7.5 million in cost savings were $30 million annualized, combined with the $95 million in annualized savings realized through the first quarter of 2021, brings us to $125 million in total, or 63% of our $200 million net savings expectations. As it relates to timing, we still expect approximately $150 million or 75% of the run rate savings to be achieved by the end of this year with the remainder realized, by the end of 2022. Of the $150 million in net savings by the end of this year, we anticipate, we will realize roughly 70% of the savings through compensation expense. The remaining 30%, would be spread across occupancy tech spend and G&A. We expect the total program savings to be 65% in compensation of about 35% spread across the other categories. For the $125 million of the expected $150 million in net savings by the end of this year, already in the quarterly run rate, the degree of net savings per quarter will continue to moderate going forward. In the second quarter, we incurred $20 million of restructuring costs. In total, we recognized nearly $170 million of our estimated $250 million to $275 million in restructuring costs that were associated with this program. We expect the remaining transaction costs for the realization of this program to be in a range of $85 million to $105 million, through the end of 2022. As a reminder, the costs associated with the strategic evaluation are not reflected in our non-GAAP results. Moving to slide 10, adjusted operating income improved $38 million to $541 million for the quarter, driven by the factors we just reviewed. Adjusted operating and margin improved 130 basis points to 41.5% as compared to the first quarter. Most importantly, our degree of positive operating leverage reflected in our non-GAAP results was 1.8 times for the quarter, underscoring our focus on driving scale and profitability across our diversified platform. I'll also point out, that our adjusted operating margin back in the third quarter of 2019, which was our first full quarter following the Oppenheimer acquisition was 40.9%. At that time we reported a net revenue yield, excluding performance fees of 40.7 basis points. At the end of the second quarter of 2021 our net revenue yield ex-performance fees was 34.8 basis points, yet our adjusted operating margin was 41.5%. We have been building out our product suite to meet client demand, and client demand has been in lower fee products. We're focused on aligning our expense base with changes in our business mix, enabling the firm to generate positive operating leverage and operating margin improvement. Non-operating income, included $42 million in net gains for the quarter, compared to $26 million in net gains last quarter, primarily from increased unrealized gains on seed money and co-investment portfolios. The effective tax rate for the second quarter was 22.8%, as compared to 24% in the first quarter. The effective tax rate on net income was lower in the second quarter, primarily due to a change in the mix of income across taxing jurisdictions. We estimate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be between 23% and 24% for the third quarter. The actual effective rate may vary from this estimate due to the impact of nonrecurring items on pre-tax income and discrete tax items. Few comments on slide 11, Our balance sheet cash position was $1.3 billion at June 30th, and approximately $750 million of this cash is held for regulatory requirements. Our cash position has improved considerably over the past year increasing by nearly $350 million, largely driven by the improvement in our operating income. Our debt profile has improved considerably as well with no draws on our revolver at quarter end. As a result we've substantially improved our net leverage position. During the quarter we repaid the remaining $177 million forward share repurchase liability in April and there are no remaining share repurchase contract liabilities. In terms of future cash requirements in the second quarter, we recorded an adjustment to the MLP liability associated with the Oppenheimer purchase reducing this liability from our original estimate of nearly $385 million, down to $300 million. We anticipate funding this liability in the fourth quarter of 2021. While we do anticipate a degree of insurance recovery related to the matter, the insurance claims process is inherently complex and we do not have an update at this stage of the timing or size of that recovery. Overall, we believe we're making solid progress in our efforts to improve liquidity and build financial flexibility. In summary, we continue to see growth in our key capabilities. We remain focused on executing the strategy that aligns with these areas while completing our strategic evaluation and reallocating our resources to position us for growth. And finally we remain prudent in our approach to capital management. We're in a strong position to meet client needs run a disciplined business and to continue to invest in and grow our franchise over the long-term. And with that, I'll ask the operator to open up the line to Q&A.