Allison Dukes
Analyst · Jefferies. You may go ahead
Thank you, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Moving to Slide 4, our investment performance improved in the first quarter, with 70% and 76% of actively managed funds in the top half of peers on a 5-year and a 10-year basis, respectively. This reflected continued strengths in fixed income, global equities, including emerging markets equities and Asian equities, all areas where we continue to see demand from clients globally. I’ll also note that our published investment performance now reflects Morningstar peer rankings for composites, where U.S. domiciled mutual fund is the most representative AUM in the composite, whereas previously, we had relied on Lipper data. This transition more closely aligned our data to the investment performance data reviewed by our U.S. clients and is more consistent with how our peers reflect investment performance. Additionally, we’ve expanded the population of AUM included in performance disclosures by about $150 billion for each period presented through the addition of benchmark relative performance data for institutional AUM, where peer rankings do not exist. This approach is used by certain of our peers and we believe it more meaningfully represents the contribution of our institutional AUM to our performance metrics. Moving to Slide 5, you’ll notice we reorganized our ending AUM and net long-term flow slides to group the ending AUM, and net long-term flows together for each cut of our data, by total investment approach, channel, geography, and asset class. We believe this will better illustrate our flows and the context of our overall AUM for each category. We ended the quarter with just over $1.4 trillion in AUM. Of the $54 billion in AUM growth, approximately $25 billion is a function of increased market values. Our diversified platform generated net long-term inflows in the first quarter of $24.5 billion, representing 8.8% annualized organic growth. Active AUM of net long-term inflows were $7.5 billion or a 3.4% annualized organic growth rate, and passive AUM of net long-term inflows were $17 billion or a 31.3% annualized organic growth rate. The retail channel generated net long-term inflows of $21.2 billion in the quarter, an improvement from roughly flat performance in the fourth quarter, driven by the positive ETF flows. Institutional channel generated net long-term inflows of $3.3 billion in the quarter. Regarding retail net inflows, our ETF, excluding the QQQs, generated net long-term inflows of $16.8 billion including meaningful net inflows into our higher fee ETF. Net ETF inflows in the U.S., were a focus on equities in the first quarter, including a high level of interest in our S&P 500 equal weight ETF, which had $4 billion in net inflows in the quarter. In addition to the S&P 500 equal weight ETF, we had five other ETFs that reported net inflows of over $1 billion each. These six ETFs represented $10 billion in net inflows for the quarter. It’s also worth noting that our Invesco NASDAQ next-gen 100 ETFs, the QQQJ surpass the $1 billion AUM mark in the quarter following its inception in October of 2020. This is on the heels of our successful QQQ marketing campaign and sponsorship of the NCAA championship in the first quarter. Looking inflows by geography on Slide 6, you’ll note that the Americans had net long-term inflows of $10 billion in the quarter, an improvement of $7.8 billion from the fourth quarter. The improvement was driven by net inflows in ETFs, institutional net inflows, various fixed income strategies and importantly, focused sales efforts. Asia Pacific delivered one of its strongest quarters ever with net long-term inflows of $16.7 billion. Net inflows were diversified across the region. $9.4 billion of these net inflows were from greater China, including $8.5 billion in our China JV. The balances of the flows in Asia Pacific were comprised of $3 billion from Japan, $1.9 billion from Singapore and the remaining $2.3 billion was generated from several other countries in the region. Net long-term inflows for EMEA, excluding the UK, were $3.7 billion driven by retail flows, including particularly strong net inflows of $1.2 billion into our global consumer trends fund, the growth equities capability, which saw demand from across the EMEA region. ETF net inflows in EMEA were $1.6 billion in the quarter, including interest in a wide variety of U.S. and EMEA-based ETFs. Notably, we saw net inflows of $0.5 billion into our blockchain ETF and $400 million into one of our newly launched ESG ETFs in the quarter. The Invesco MSCI USA ESG Universal Screened ETF. And finally, the UK experienced net long-term outflows of $5.9 billion in the quarter driven by net outflows in multi-asset institutional quantitative equities and UK equities. Turning to flows across asset class, equity net long-term inflows of $9.8 billion saw similar capabilities I’ve mentioned, including the developing markets fund, the global consumer trends fund and ETF, including our S&P 500 equal weight ETF. We continue to see strength in fixed income across all channels and markets in the first quarter with net long-term inflows of $7.6 billion. This following net inflows of $8.2 billion in fixed income in the fourth quarter. It’s worth noting that the net inflows and the balanced asset class is $7.3 billion arose largely from China and alternative net long-term inflows improved by $4.1 billion due to a combination of inflows in senior loans, commodities and newly launched CLOs during the quarter. Moving to Slide 7. Our institutional pipeline grew to $45.5 billion at March 31 from $30.5 billion at year end. The growth of the pipeline this quarter includes a large lower fee passive indexing mandate in Asia Pacific assisted by our custom solutions advisory team. This is an opportunity for us to offer a solutions-based differentiated passive investment to meet the needs of a key strategic client with the potential to expand the relationship over time with access to higher fee opportunities. We are also able to leverage our in-house indexing capabilities with this mandate. Excluding this large mandate in Asia Pacific, the pipeline remains relatively consistent to prior quarter levels in terms of size, asset mix and fee composition. While there’s always some uncertainty with large client funding, we’re currently estimating that between 50% and 65% of the pipeline will fund in the second quarter, including the large indexing mandate. The funding of this mandate will also have a slight downward impact on our net revenue yields next quarter. Overall, the pipeline is diversified across asset classes and geographies, and our solutions capability enabled 61% of the global institutional pipeline and created wins and customized mandate. This has contributed to meaningful growth across our institutional network warranting our continuing investment and focus on this key capability. Turning to Slide 8. You’ll notice that our net revenues increased $23 million or 1.8% from the fourth quarter as higher average AUM in the first quarter was partially offset by $71 million decrease in performance fees from the prior quarter. The net revenue yield excluding performance fees was 35.7 basis points, a decrease of three tenths of a basis point from the fourth quarter yield level. This decrease was driven by lower day count in the first quarter that negatively impacted the yield by eight tenths of a basis point and higher discretionary money market fee waivers that negatively impacted the yield by three tenths of a basis point. These negative impacts were partially offset by the positive impact of rising markets and net long-term inflows during the quarter. Going forward, we do expect money market fee waivers to remain in place for the foreseeable future until rates begin to recover to more normalized levels. Total adjusted operating expenses increased 0.7% in the first quarter. The $5 million increase in operating expenses was driven by higher variable compensation as a result of higher revenue, as well as the seasonal increase in payroll taxes and certain benefits offset by the reduction in compensation related to performance fees recognized last quarter and savings that we realized in the quarter resulting from our strategic evaluation. Operating expenses remained at lower than historic activity levels due to pandemic impact the discretionary spending, travel and other business operations that have persisted in the quarter. Moving to Slide 9. We update you on the progress we’ve made with our strategic evaluation. As we’ve noted previously, we’re looking across four key areas of our expense base. Our organizational model, our real estate footprint, management of third-party spend and technology and operations efficiency. Through this evaluation, we will invest in key areas of growth, including ETFs, fixed income, China, solutions, alternatives and global equities, while creating permanent net improvements of $200 million in our normalized operating expense base. A large element of the savings will be generated from compensation, which includes realigning our non-client facing workforce to support key areas of growth and repositioning to lower cost locations. The remainder of the savings will come through property office and technology and G&A expenses. In the first quarter we realized $16 million in cost savings, $15 million of the savings was related to compensation expense. The remaining $1 million in savings was related to facilities, which has shown in the property office and technology category. $16 million in cost savings or $65 million annualized combined with the $30 million in annualized savings realized in 2020 brings us to $95 million or 48% of our $200 million net savings expectation. As it relates to timing, we still expect approximately $150 million or 75% of the run rate savings to be achieved by the end of this year, with the remainder realized by the end of 2022. Of the $150 million in net savings by the end of this year, we anticipate, we will realize roughly 65% of the savings through compensation expense, the remaining 35% would be spread across the occupancy, tech spend and G&A. The breakdown for the remaining $50 million and net cost save in 2022 will be similar. With $95 million of the expected $150 million in net savings by the end of this year already in the quarterly run rate, the degree of net savings per quarter will moderate going forward. In the first quarter we incurred $30 million of restructuring costs. In total, we’ve recognized nearly $150 million of our estimated $250 million to $275 million in restructuring costs that were associated with this program. We expect the remaining transaction costs for the realization of this program to be in the range of a $100 million to $125 million over the next two years with roughly one half of this amount occurring in the remainder of 2021. As a reminder, the costs associated with the strategic evaluation are not reflected in our non-GAAP results. Our expectations of our first second quarter operating expenses to be relatively flat to the first quarter, assuming no change in markets and FX levels from March 31. We entered the second quarter with $1.4 trillion in AUM driven by net inflows and market tailwinds from the first quarter. These tailwinds will have a modest impact on both revenues and associated variable expenses. The impact on expenses will be offset by lower compensation expense related to seasonality and payroll taxes and benefits, plus incremental savings related to the strategic evaluation. We also expect a modest increase in marketing related expenses as the first quarter is typically the low point in marketing spend annually. One area that is still more difficult to forecast at this point is when COVID impacted travel and entertainment expense levels will begin to normalize. The rollout of vaccines, we believe we might begin to see a modest resumption of travel activity later in the second quarter, and perhaps more in the third quarter. Moving to Slide 10. Adjusted operating income improved $18 million to $503 million for the quarter driven by the factors we just reviewed. Adjusted operating margin improved 70 basis points to 40.2% as compared to the fourth quarter. Most importantly, our degree of positive operating leverage reflected in our non-GAAP results is 2x for the quarter, underscoring our focus on driving scale and profitability across our diversified platform. Non-operating income included $25.9 million in net gains for the quarter compared to $31.9 million in net gain last quarter as higher equity and earnings, primarily from increased yellow marks were more than offset by lower market gains on our seed portfolio as compared to the prior quarter. The effective tax rate for the first quarter was 24% compared to 21.7% in the fourth quarter. The effective tax rate on net income was higher in the first quarter, primarily due to an increase in income generated and higher taxing jurisdictions relative to total income. We estimate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be between 23% and 24% for the second quarter. The actual effective tax rate may vary from this estimate due to the impact of non-recurring items on pre-tax income and discreet tax items. Turning to Slide 11. Our balance sheet cash position was $1.158 billion at March 31 and approximately $760 million of this cash is held for regulatory requirements. Cash balances are impacted by the typical seasonal increases in cash needs in the first quarter related to our compensation cycle. We also paid $117 million on a forward share repurchase liability in January. In addition to using excess cash to reduce leverage, we seek to improve liquidity and our financial flexibility. Despite the increased cash needs in the quarter, the revolver balance was zero at the end of March, consistent with our commitment to improve our leverage profile. Additionally, the remaining forward share repurchases liability of $177 million was settled in early April. We also renegotiated our $1.5 billion credit facility extending the maturity date to April of 2026 with favorable terms. We believe we’re making solid progress in our efforts to build financial flexibility and as such our Board approved a 10% increase in our quarterly common dividend to $0.17 per share. The share buybacks dating back to last year on Slide 11, which reflects $45 million in the first quarter of this year are related to vesting of employee share awards. We remain committed to a sustainable dividend and to returning capital to shareholders longer term through a combination of modestly increasing dividends and share repurchases. In summary, Marty highlighted the growth we’ve seen in our key capabilities and our continued focus on executing the strategy that aligns with these areas. We’re also executing on our strategic evaluation and reallocating our resources to position us for growth. And finally, we remain prudent in our approach to capital management. Our focus on driving greater efficiency and effectiveness into our platform, combined with the work we’ve done to build a global business with a comprehensive range of capabilities, puts Invesco in a very strong position to meet client needs, run a disciplined business and to continue to invest in and grow our franchise over the long-term. With that, I’ll open it up to the line for questions.