Brian P. McKeon
Analyst · William Blair and Company
Thanks, Richard. Slide 3 highlights the key messages from today's review. Our business delivered solid operating performance in Q3 keeping us on track for our full-year goals. Results were supported by solid storage revenue growth and continued profit improvement in our international business. Revenue growth for the quarter was 6%, with trends consistent with those discussed the last few quarters. Storage revenues increased 6%, or 4% on a constant currency basis. And service revenues grew 5% in the quarter or 2% on a constant currency basis, as strong gains in Hybrid services and benefits from higher commodity pricing offset soft core service activity levels. Profit and cash flow performance was in line with our expectations, supported by strong gains in our international segment. Adjusted OIBDA for the quarter was $252 million as expected. Adjusted EPS was $0.37 for the quarter and free cash flow was $305 million on a year-to-date basis. We've made significant progress against our initial $1.2 billion shareholder payout commitment, highlighted by $537 million of share repurchases and $51 million of cash dividends paid in the quarter. Our successful $400 million debt offering in September has us well-positioned from a liquidity perspective to fund our operations and continue payouts to shareholders. While our operating outlook has not changed, we are revising our full year 2011 guidance to reflect the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and about $10 million of projected restructuring cost in Western Europe. Recent movements in foreign currency exchange rates have narrowed the expected full year FX growth benefit this year by about 1%. In Q4 we also expect to incur about $10 million in restructuring costs in our Western European businesses in support of future margin expansion goals. These costs were not factored into our previous full-year guidance, as more specific plans related to our international portfolio review were still being developed. Looking ahead to 2012, we're targeting continued solid storage growth and strong free cash flow performance. We're planning for consistent revenue growth trends, adjusted for recent changes in foreign exchange rates and a sharp decline in recycled paper prices over the last 2 months. Free cash flow performance is expected to remain strong, as increased operating profits and flat capital spending offset increased interest expense due to higher leverage. Let's now turn to Slide 4 and begin the review of our financial results. Slide 4 compares our results from this quarter to the third quarter of 2010. Overall, Q3 was a solid quarter with performance as expected, keeping us on track towards achieving our full-year financial goals. Enterprise revenue growth was 6% supported by constant currency growth of 3% and benefits from favorable FX changes. Enterprise revenue gains reflected sustained storage revenue internal growth of 3%, and global expansion of Hybrid services. Year-end recycled paper prices and higher fuel surcharges also supported overall revenue growth. These gains offset continued softness in core service activities. From a segment perspective, North American Physical posted 3% constant currency revenue growth, supported by consistent 2% storage internal revenue growth. Service revenues were up 3% in Q3 in North America. Service growth continues to be constrained by softness in retrieval and refile, transportation and data protection handling activity. These impacts offset strong gains in Hybrid revenues and benefits from higher commodity prices. Our International Physical segment posted 5% revenue growth on a constant currency basis, including 3 points of growth from the Polish acquisition completed earlier this year. Storage internal growth remains strong at 6%, supported by solid gains in Europe and sustained double-digit gains in Latin America and Asia-Pacific. These gains were augmented by expansion in Hybrid service revenues. Total service revenue growth was constrained by lower complementary service revenues due primarily to the winding down of a large European contract. Gross profits grew 7% in Q3, yielding a gross margin of 59.9%, up 90 basis points from Q3 of last year. Storage gross margins were flat compared to last year, while service gross margins benefited from higher recycled paper revenues. Adjusted OIBDA was $252 million, in line with our expectations. Gross profit gains were offset by a 17% increase in overhead expenses. This increase was due primarily to higher incentive compensation accruals, compared to very low prior year levels, and planned increases in North American sales and marketing expenses. Excluding these items, SG&A costs were up 4% below the rate of reported revenue growth. Below the adjusted OIBDA line, depreciation was $71 million and amortization was $7 million. Other expense for the quarter was $17 million, due primarily to FX losses. Due to changes in our internal reporting structure within our international segment, we accelerated our annual goodwill impairment review in the third quarter. As a result of that review, we've recorded an estimated impairment charge of $59 million. This impairment related specifically to our Western European reporting unit, and represented less than 5% of the approximately $1.4 billion of capital we have invested in our international business. We'll finalize the amount in the fourth quarter, and record any adjustment, if necessary at that time. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.37 per share. Reported EPS per share of $0.17 includes impairment charges in the Western European reporting unit and increased Other Expense net, which was partially offset by the net benefit of other discrete tax items. Our structural tax rate for the quarter was 39% as expected. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 33%, and included benefits related to the completion of tax audits, the resolution of certain tax matters and expiration of statutes of limitation, partially offset by the impacts of the international charges in foreign currency losses. Let's now take a look -- a closer look at our revenue growth on Slide 5. Slide 5 breaks down our overall revenue growth. It shows internal growth by major service line as well as the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign exchange for Q3 and the year to date. Also presented is our original full-year guidance we stated earlier this year to exclude discontinued operations. As you can see, all of our year-to-date amounts are within our expected full-year ranges, with year-to-date core and overall internal revenue growth at 2%. The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar will likely constraint our full year reported revenue to the low end of our 4% to 6% guidance range. As I'll discuss in more detail, recent FX rate movements will narrow the full-year growth benefit by about 1% from our earlier 2% estimate. In terms of our Q3 results, overall revenue growth was 6%. Storage internal growth was solid at 3%, reflecting consistent underlying trends. North America reported 3% internal storage growth and international growth remained strong at 6%. Net global Records Management volume growth was about 2% again, on a year-to-year basis in Q3, reflecting continued strong gains in international and modest year-on-year growth in North America. Pricing trends remain consistent. Total service internal growth was 2%. Core service internal growth was down 1% in the quarter. We continue to see pressure on core service activity, particularly in North America related to soft economic conditions. Strong growth in Hybrid services are partially offsetting these impacts, but we expect that overall core service growth will be constrained in coming quarters, as we continue to build scale in the Hybrid business. Complementary service revenues, which represent about 12% of total revenues, increased 9% internally in the quarter. Results reflected benefits from higher recycled paper pricing, which offset lower revenues from international projects and other miscellaneous complementary services. Let's now turn to Slide 6 to review our year-to-date results. Slide 6 looks at our year-to-date operating performance compared to the first 9 months of 2010. As noted, our Q3 results are keeping us on track to reach our full-year financial targets. For the year-to-date, revenue increased 5% to $2.3 billion. Gross profit increased 5% to $1.3 billion, yielding a modest improvement in gross margin. Adjusted OIBDA grew 2% year-over-year, excluding the $15 million of cost associated with the proxy contest. As expected, adjusted OIBDA growth has been constrained by higher levels of incentive compensation compared to last year, and planned investments in North America sales and marketing. Adjusted EPS was $0.93 per share, including a $0.05 per share impact from the $15 million of cost related to the proxy contest. Excluding these impacts, adjusted EPS is up about 3% year to date. Capital spending was $119 million, excluding $15 million from real estate. In terms of project timing, we're planning for higher capital spending levels in the fourth quarter, consistent with our full-year plans. Our full-year outlook for capital spending has been refined to $225 million. Excluding real estate spending, this will be about 6.8% of revenues, down about 110 basis points from 2010 levels. Free cash flow for 2011 is $305 million year to date, 15% from last year's level, primarily due to higher income from continuing operations and lower capital spending. We remain solidly on track for strong performance in free cash flow this year, with our full-year outlook in the range of $380 million to $400 million. Let's now turn to Slide 7 to review our results by segment. Slide 7 shows key year to date metrics for each of our 3 key segments compared to the first 9 months of 2010. Consistent with our plans, we're sustaining high returns in our North American segment, as we build momentum in our international segment as a driver of profit and cash flow gains. North America continues to deliver high profits and strong cash flows. Reported revenues year-to-date increased 2%, supported by 2% storage [ph] growth. Adjusted OIBDA margins in our largest segment was strong at 43% [ph] gross margin gains and controlled support overhead spending, which supported planned investments in sales and marketing. These investments are key to sustaining the high return storage annuity, which drives North America returns. Capital efficiency continue to improve with CapEx as a percentage of sales at 4%. Our international segment continues to post solid revenue growth and strong adjusted OIBDA and cash flow gains. Revenues grew 6% on a constant currency basis, driven by continued strong storage internal growth of 6%. Year-to-date adjusted OIBDA exceeded revenue gains, growing 23% on reported basis or 14% excluding FX effects. Through Q3, international adjusted OIBDA margins have increased 150 basis points, compared to prior year levels. These gains were driven primarily by realized benefits of operational excellence initiatives in our U.K. business. We continue to target strong improvement in international margins in 2011, supported by operational improvements in the U.K. and profit gains in the expansion markets. The increase in corporate expenses primarily reflects $15 million of onetime costs associated with the proxy contest. Overall, we continue to deliver strong operating performance across our business, which is driving sustained strong cash flow. This performance is supporting significant shareholder payouts. Let's turn to Slide 8 to review our shareholder payout program. Slide 8 shows the substantial progress we've made in returning funds to shareholders over the past 2 years. As contacts, we initiated our first dividend and share repurchase authorization in early 2010, and tripled our annual dividend level late last year. As part of our midterm business plan presented in April, we committed to $2.2 billion of payouts through 2013, including $1.2 billion by May 2012. As part of this commitment, we increased our quarterly dividend against $0.25 per share in June. To date, we've made significant progress against our business plan goals. Through last [indiscernible] returns $726 million of our initial $1.2 billion commitment. In Q3, we acquired 16.8 million shares for $537 million, $7.5 million of these shares were acquired in early August at the completion of our $250 million prepaid variable share repurchase agreements, which we funded in May. The balance was acquired in the open market following the completion of the PVSR. Between October 1 and October 21, we acquired an additional 3 million shares for $91 million. As of October 21, we had $449 million remaining on our existing $1.2 billion share repurchase authorization. Since first announcing our plans to return cash to shareholders in February 2010, we've returned nearly $1 billion through over $200 million of dividend payments and the repurchase of 25 million shares for about $750 million. The 25 million shares represents more than 12% of the shares we had outstanding at the end of 2009. Our strong cash flow and financing capacity has us well-positioned to deliver our payout commitments. Let's now turn to Slide 9 to review how we're managing our balance sheet to fund our business and support these payouts. Our balance sheet remains strong, reflecting improvements in our cash generating capacity and debt portfolio. Our debt portfolio remains long and fixed. Our weighted average interest rate was just under 7%, and we were 85% fixed at quarter end. Maturities is nearly 7 years with no bond payments due until 2014. During the third quarter, we issued 400 million of 7 3/4% senior subordinated notes. This transaction is consistent with our plans to increase our leverage ratio to the -- within the 3% to 4% target leverage range. Currently, our consolidated leverage ratio was about 3% -- I am sorry 3.0x. We expect our leverage ratio to increase moderately within our target range as planned as we continue to execute it against our shareholder payout program. We're well positioned in terms of cash and financing capacity. At quarter end, liquidity was approximately $1.2 billion, with $481 million in cash and $671 million in additional borrowing capacity under our revolver. The strength of our balance sheet will enable us to continue to fund value creating growth in our business and continued payouts to shareholders. That concludes our review of the quarterly results. Overall, our business performance was solid as expected, and we remain on track towards our full-year goals. Let's now turn to Slide 10 to review our 2011 outlook. Slide 10 summarizes our full-year 2011 financial guidance. For 2011, our business [indiscernible] performing as expected, and within our previous guidance ranges. As noted earlier, we're revising our full-year guidance to reflect current foreign currency exchange rates and about $10 million of projected restructuring costs, we expect to incur in Q4 related to our Western European operations. We expect our full-year revenues to be in the range of $3,020,000,000 to $3,045,000,000, up about 4% over 2010. This reflects expectations for internal growth of about 2%, consistent with year-to-date trends, and about 2% of benefit from foreign exchange and acquisitions combined. Since we've last updated, the dollar has strengthened against all other [ph] foreign currencies. At recent trading ranges, we estimate this will reduce our full-year growth benefit that we expected from FX by about 1%. Our adjusted OIBDA outlook is now $905 million to $925 million. At midpoint this is down $15 million, compared to our prior guidance reflecting the projected $10 million of restructuring cost we expect to incur in Q4, as well as some impacts from the FX changes. The restructuring cost as a result of the finalization of improvement plans in certain Western European markets. They're onetime in nature, are primarily headcount related, and support our future international margin expansion goals. Our current outlook is for adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.18 to $1.24 per share. This outlook includes a $0.05 negative impact from proxy related costs and $0.03 impact related to the international restructuring cost. Our adjusted EPS forecast assumes 197 million shares outstanding. This assumption includes the benefit of shares that we've repurchased through October 21. Our CapEx outlook of $225 million includes about $18 million for real estate spending. As noted, our free cash flow outlook remains strong with projections in the range of $380 million to $400 million. Now let's turn to Slide 11 and discuss the key drivers of our preliminary 2012 outlook. Slide 11 highlights key factors supporting our preliminary outlook for our 2012 financial performance. We're currently targeting 0% to 2% internal revenue growth in 2012, supported by a continued solid storage internal growth. This growth outlook is consistent with our current trends, adjusting for an expected 1% negative impact from lower recycled paper prices. Recycled paper prices are down nearly $80 a ton, or more than 25% since August. At current levels, we estimate this change will lower revenue and profits by about $25 million in 2012. Assuming foreign-exchange levels remain at recent levels, FX impacts with lower reported year-end revenue growth by about 1%. We're targeting solid underlying gains in adjusted OIBDA, supported by an additional 150 to 200 basis points of margin expansion in our international segment. The favorable lapping of onetime costs associated with our proxy cost and projected international restructuring costs in 2011 will be offset by lower recycled paper pricing impacts in 2012. We also expect to drive a continued solid free cash flow and adjusted EPS growth. Our free cash flow outlook is supported by projections for higher operating profits and slightly lower capital spending, which will offset the higher interest expense related to our planned increase in leverage. Adjusted EPS will benefit from lower shares outstanding, reflecting benefits for our accelerated share repurchases in 2011. Let's turn to Slide 12 to summarize our 2012 outlook. On a constant dollar basis, we're targeting 0% to 2% revenue growth, and 1% to 5% adjusted OIBDA growth. Please note that these growth rates don't include any benefit from future core acquisitions, as contacts acquisitions added about 1% to our growth rates since 2001. As noted, we're planning for similar revenue growth trends, and for moderate margin gains supported by continued improvements in international, consistent with our business plan. On a reported basis, this outlook supports our preliminary revenue guidance of between $2,990,000,000 and $3,070,000,000 and adjusted OIBDA of $915 million to $955 million. These estimates include a negative 1% impact from FX using recent trading ranges for the dollar. Our outlook is for continued strong free cash flow performance in the range of $360 million to $400 million reflecting solid operating performance and mostly lower capital expenditures of about $220 million for the year. Our CapEx outlooks include increased expenditures on operational efficiency investments to drive future margin gains, and about $16 million for real estate. Our outlook is for adjusted EPS to grow between 1% and 10% to a range of $1.22 to $1.33, reflecting benefits from profit gains and lower shares outstanding, partially offset by higher interest costs. Our adjusted EPS set calculation assumes 185 million shares outstanding. This reflects shares repurchased through October 21, 2011, and does not incorporate any future potential repurchases. This outlook for 2012 is preliminary, it's based on current FX rates, paper prices and shares outstanding. Any and all of which can change material in short periods of time. We'll update our outlook again in our Q4 earnings call to reflect changes, if any, in these variables. Thank you and we'd now be happy take your questions.