Earnings Labs

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 8, 2018

$69.86

-1.34%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.14%

1 Week

-2.31%

1 Month

-4.18%

vs S&P

-5.10%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the International Flavors & Fragrances' Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode until the formal question-and-answer portion of the call. Participants will be announced by their name and company. In order to give all participants an opportunity to ask their questions, we request a limit of one question per person. I would now like to introduce Michael DeVeau, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin. Michael DeVeau - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Thank you. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, everyone. Welcome to IFF's second quarter 2018 conference call. Yesterday evening, we distributed a press release announcing our financial results. A copy of the release can be found on our IR website at ir.iff.com. Please note that this call is being recorded live and will be available for replay on our website. Please take a moment to review our forward-looking statements. During the call, we'll be making forward-looking statements about the company's performance, particularly with regards to the outlook for the third quarter and full year 2018. These statements are based on how we see things today and contain elements of uncertainty. For additional information concerning the factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, please refer to our cautionary statement and risk factors contained in our 10-K filed on February 22, 2018 and our press release that we filed yesterday. Today's presentation will include non-GAAP financial measures, which excludes those items that we believe affect comparability. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their respective GAAP measures is set forth in our press release that we issued yesterday and is available on our website. I would like to also remind everyone that all statements relate…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel, Nicolaus. Mark S. Astrachan - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yeah, thanks and good morning, everybody. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Good morning, Mark. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Hi, Mark. Mark S. Astrachan - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hey. So, wanted to ask first just on a logistic standpoint. So sales growth expectations for the back half of the year, so there's a pretty large implied range from guidance. There's obviously a much tougher comparison. So I guess any sort of broader strokes you can give on how to think about that including how much pricing should we expect given the commentary about incremental input cost pressures and the underlying volumes as well as new wins? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Sure, Mark. I think couple things from me as I think about it. We've been talking since the end of last year certainly in the first two quarters that a big component of the higher growth in the first half of this year was the volume on existing business, so – and we've expressed and I certainly have expressed an expectation that that will soften. I think overall on a two-year basis, the numbers are fairly consistent first half, second half. But I do think the mix is going to change where I think our win performance is pretty consistent. There are good rates. Our commercial performance are good. But I think in the second half of the year, we're expecting a decrease in the impact associated with volume and existing business, and an increase in the pricing impact. As I said in the second quarter, we're about 1.5 points of pricing impact in…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

Lauren R. Lieberman - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Thanks. Good morning. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Good morning. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Good morning, Lauren.

Lauren R. Lieberman - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

First thing I would ask about was just the commentary on the incremental inflation. So, it sounded like both there's incremental inflation versus the outlook six months ago for the second half of the year and also very much heading into 2019. And so, I just wanted to be clear on expectations for the back half, is there incremental pricing going in? Do you have visibility? I mean it sounds that way from – you've said you're reiterating – but how you're going to be covering that incremental inflation that's kind of close in. And then also as you're looking into 2019, just to maybe try to help us square the kind of rate of inflation we're talking about, because if you're discussing needing to work with customers on solutions outside of pricing it suggests that it's a pretty severe rate. Thanks. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Hi. Good morning, Lauren. It's Rich. Yeah. I think – look, as I indicated in my comments, I think, we started the year, we ended last year, started this year, we expected inclusive of citral and the BASF issue to be mid-single digits. It's now above that given the other dynamics. I think what we feel good about is that the vast majority of our discussions and pricing negotiations with our customers have been completed. And so, it's a matter of phasing those in; we've talked about that in the past. These things don't happen overnight, but we're confident in our ability to recover those increases over time. As I think about next year, I – what our current view of what we're seeing today, I mean obviously we expect this – the BASF situation to normalize in the second half of this year, so that will relieve some of the pressure. I think that as we see it today, input costs next year are probably going to be in the low to mid-single-digit level.

Lauren R. Lieberman - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Okay. Great. And then I'm not sure if you'll be able to comment on this yet, but the Frutarom outlook, I think sort of implies that they are baking in some incremental M&A before year-end. I mean, to what degree do you have visibility on that because that's one piece that's where the forward look that's left me a little bit less comfortable, assuming M&A for something that's about to be bought, sort of a – a bit of a funny dynamic – so, anything you can offer there would be great. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Look, in general, what we said when we announced the deal is that we certainly want to go ahead with a model of good acquisitions on this business and particularly on the adjacent businesses. Probably not at the same rate as Frutarom is doing it because some of them were just geographic expansions where we probably don't need it because we are, as a combined company, are very well covering the globe. We know and we have visibility of their pipeline in terms of deals. I can't give you any details, but there's certainly a good pipeline, and there are deals to be happen over time. And that's what I can say for now. Yeah, and we are planning our business model for money to be spent on M&A on this side as well. So, that's what I probably can announce today.

Lauren R. Lieberman - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Heidi Vesterinen with Exane BNP Paribas.

Heidi Vesterinen - Exane BNP Paribas

Management

Hi. Good morning. So a question on the pro forma business as well. I think in the past year, you had talked about increasing profitability through the combination. As you know, there's a debate on the market about how high margins can go. Some people are saying there's a cap. So, where – do you still see significant margin potential for yourself and more broadly in the industry, please? Thank you. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yes, Heidi. And in particular, when you look at the change in product portfolio and customer portfolio going forward, what we certainly see is that in some of the adjacent businesses, you have good margins and probably better margins than in the core F&F business. And now, it's up for us actually to manage our portfolio in a way that we see a margin increase over time for the total corporation. I'd give you just one example. You might remember when we moved three years ago into the active cosmetics, that's a very high margin business, at least the piece or part where we are playing in. And we see now some of these businesses coming to us as well with Frutarom. And now, we are right now in the middle of the discussion in terms of strategy, what are the product categories we really want to push to move ahead on that time. Certainly, it's true on the core F&F business. It's not easy to push the margin up and up, but we'll see, let's say, the acceleration of the different portfolios, I think. And then don't forget that we have the cost synergies for us as well, and they will help us on the margin side, and particularly when you look at procurement and at the manufacturing footprint, because that's another driver for us for margin. So, it was probably a little bit of a long-winded answer, but I wanted to give you some details, but the answer is, yes, we can move it up.

Heidi Vesterinen - Exane BNP Paribas

Management

Thanks. And if I could squeeze in a very quick short one. On the citral issue, is there any scope to get compensated after this disruption perhaps from the supplier? Thank you. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. I mean, Heidi, we're looking at every possibility there in terms of obviously working with our customers. Our priority, number one priority, has been to maintain surety of supply with our customers and figure out the best way to work with them. From there, we'll look at any other option out there.

Heidi Vesterinen - Exane BNP Paribas

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Michael J. Sison - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Hey, guys. Nice quarter. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Hey, Mike. Thank you. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Good morning, Mike.

Michael J. Sison - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

When you think about the slide 20 and 21, appreciate the update on integration approach and such. And so I understand you're keeping Frutarom separate, makes a lot of sense. Can you give us a little bit of color how you plan to change the culture within Frutarom? A lot of different businesses that have been bought over the years, what's sort of the plan inside that box to integrate that and make that more efficient? Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Mike, that's certainly something where we're looking to it right now to look what really makes sense to change or what makes sense to keep. We have to say that there's certainly some elements like the nimbleness and the customer focus we like a lot. We certainly will not change that. So, there are a couple of elements actually within the culture where we have to take to consideration whether we make them even bigger within the combined company. But we are in the middle of the assessment to do it. We will also, in day one, integrate some business already as I've said we lift and shift. But it has to make sense and we can't jeopardize the top line growth, because that's so important for both businesses. That's the reason, why we have also kept our business people really focused on our core business and doing the integration basically in the back office work. Okay. And we can give you certainly more details over the next couple of months, when we are coming closer to closing and after closing certainly as well.

Michael J. Sison - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Sure. And then in terms of revenues synergies, you have three buckets that you talked about. Is there any particular – is it going to be quicker to see the synergies in either of the three buckets, all three buckets that just sort of, want to see also where and how soon some of these little areas can come in? Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Look, it's actually an easy answer, but maybe not always as easy done. It's basically – we give them access to our technology and what we have seen so far when we disclose some of the technology to them there's a lot of excitement around that. What they can do with it with their own customer base. Usually, they have small and mid-sized customers. So, I expect actually a pretty quick uptake of this kind of business or top line synergy on this side. On the other hand, they have all the adjacent businesses which we can sell into our bigger customers as well. And there's actually a lot of excitement on our bigger customers side as well, what they can do there. For example, an interesting company, it's called Taura. They have a technology, which is very complementary to our PowderPure technology, which goes into natural solutions. And we are right now talking how we can bring this together and make sure that this gives a great offering to our customers. So, there are a lot of discussions, but it means basically our technology into their customer base and it means their adjacency into our customer base. And that's what we are working on it. And we haven't put too much of these revenue synergies already into our plan, because we said we want to be really diligent to go over it and then make really good plans. How to do it in the best way and when we have our, let's say, first, let's say, investor conference after the closure, we certainly will disclose some of it. Okay?

Michael J. Sison - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Thanks very much. When you calculate currency neutral operating profit growth, is the base what you actually reported last year or is it a different base that's currency neutral that's not immediately visible? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. I mean, Mike, what we do is – no, Jeff. Sorry. Sorry.

Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

It's all right. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: You see Rich still has a little bit of the summer cold, which I – but he will give the answer. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Perfect – perfect timing for this. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. We take the prior year and then we're adjusting prior year results to current year exchange rates. Keep in mind, though, keep in mind that when you're looking at last year's reported numbers, the pension accounting change which may – which is a pretty significant number where the pension income is no longer reflected in operating profits now and other income and expense.

Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

I just say that since your analysis of your own results rely so much on currency neutral values, you might simply supply those values so that your financial statements are somewhat more transparent. And since it's simply a translation or currency neutral, I don't think it would give away anything competitive. And just secondly, can you describe what the tangible common equity units are in a little bit more detail and what's the timing of your equity financing? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Sure. In terms of the – in terms of the financing, we expect to go – to do the debt and equity raise – equity first, debt second in the middle of September. The exact dates, we're still working through that. In terms of the tangible equity units, they're issued at a premium and they have both a debt – they both have a – they convert from a tangible equity unit into common shares. At the future, they have an interest component to that. And the premium allows the company to benefit up to a cap on growth in our share price over the three-year period that gets the upside in terms of as our – as we deliver upon the plan, the shares reflects that we'll have a lower dilution effect.

Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Good. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gunther Zechmann with Bernstein.

Gunther Zechmann - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Management

Hi. Good morning, everyone. From what you said about pricing versus raw material costs, I found that very interesting. Do you expect higher gross margins in the second half this year compared to last? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Compared to last year?

Gunther Zechmann - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Management

Second half last year. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: No. No. I mean, I think what we expect to see is that if you look at the pressure – year-over-year pressure that we saw in the second quarter, I would expect the second half of the year be better than that or less year-over-year pressure.

Gunther Zechmann - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Management

Pressure from raw materials, but also – less pressure, but also better pricing from what you said, so higher... Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yes. So...

Gunther Zechmann - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Management

...gross margins in the second half 2018 versus 2017? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. So, I mean, if you look at the second quarter numbers, we were down about 200 basis points year-over-year in Q2. As we get the pricing in the second half of this year, I would expect that decline to decrease in the second half of the year.

Gunther Zechmann - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Management

Okay. That's very clear. Thanks. And then just on the second quarter itself, on the gross margin. Can you help me split out what – how big the effects were between the ongoing raw material cost inflation and the citral impacts? And I think, you already mentioned the 1.5% price in Q2, if I have that right? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yes, so pricing was about 1.5%.

Gunther Zechmann - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Management

Because you don't provide that bridge anymore that you used to. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yes. So, let me give you the background. So, yeah, as I said, 1.5% of price increases. When you – as I just mentioned, we were down about 200 basis points year-over-year on gross margins. All of that can be attributed actually slightly more than that. But all of that can be attributed to net price to input cost, the dynamic. And as best as I can – we can estimate it, it's split roughly 50/50 between the citral issue and the other price increases. And as I said, it's a timing issue that we expected to normalize over the balance of the year and into early next year.

Gunther Zechmann - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Management

That's great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Thank you. Your mysterious largest shareholder, Winder, increased their position in your stock again recently. That surprised me a little bit given they'll be able to buy all they want on the secondary offering in a month or so. Have you talked to them about participating in the secondary? Michael DeVeau - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Hey, John. It's Mike. From a largest shareholder perspective, look, we've had pretty lengthy conversation with them with respect to every ongoing institutional investor we have. They remain passive evident with their filing of their 13-G, so there's no change there. With respect to secondary offering, unfortunately, we don't disclose the process. But what I can say is that there's technical rules that they have to abide by given their size. So, it's ongoing conversations as we move forward, more to come.

John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then, secondly, are you concerned at all about the persistent low growth in the Greater Asian flavors business? You had an easy comp this quarter as against minus 2% a year ago, and you haven't had a comp above 2% in over a year. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: No, actually not because we are happy that finally we were turning or we are turning around the situation in China. We have good growth in China in the Flavors business. What is in, let's say, an issue for us was Indonesia because we have a big business in Indonesia and the market is pretty soft that what's taking the growth rate down. But eventually that will come back. The rest of the Asian business is performing very well, and as I said, in particular, John, China, we are happy to be back. Interesting enough, as you might recall, the whole thing goes back to our factory issue we had in 2015. So, it took us longer to recover. We have now a second manufacturing plant actually in place and we will open it in the fourth quarter of this year. So, we have a backup plan and we believe that China will be for us a good growth country going forward. And now even, we see the consolidation of Frutarom even better because we will get some of their volume basically into our factories as well.

John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just a clarification on the guidance, a lot of ground covered today. There is a pretty sharp deceleration implied in second half currency neutral sales growth and understanding the comps get considerably tougher, especially in Fragrance, but you've got better pricing expected to flow through. Is it such that you think volumes are actually down year-on-year in the back half either company-wide or at least in the Fragrance? And if so, is it just – is it just comp or is there anything on win rates or customer order patterns that would make you think that? I just want to make sure I understand some of the moving pieces in there. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: No. Again, I think as I said, as I mentioned earlier, overall, when we look at on a two-year basis, it's – there's not any significant change. What I do believe – what we do see happening is that the first half of this year, lower comps but a big bigger chunk of the improvement was volume on existing business. The growth – the volume on existing business were above, let's call it, five-year norms. Our win rates and impact of new wins was consistent with the five long-term trends. So, we were not seeing anything slowing or increasing there. And so, we expect to see a slowdown in the volume on existing business that'll be offset by pricing. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Okay. And then just below the line, tax rate has come in, I think, below kind of the expectations at the beginning of the year. Is there an expectation that you see a notable pickup in tax in the back half or what's the full-year expected rate? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. So, for the first half of the year, we're – between 2018 and 2019, I would expect we're going to end the year between 19% and 20%. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Okay. And then there's no – the financing for Frutarom is not embedded in the EPS outlook for the year, is that correct? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: No, no. Everything related to that is excluded at this point. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Fintan Ryan with Berenberg. Fintan Ryan - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom): Good morning, gentlemen. Two questions from me, please. Firstly, in terms of the integration with the Frutarom deal on the Frutarom side, given that we are a few months further down the line, have you thought about or have you seen any impact so far in terms of some Frutarom employee turnover? And would you be confident that most of the core management team there will remain with IFF and help that integration process post-acquisition, particularly given that I felt that the Frutarom shareholders rejected the bonus, the $20 million bonus proposed for the CEO of Frutarom. How does IFF intend to keep him compensated or interested in the business? And then in terms of the regulatory approvals, would you anticipate any issues in terms of some of the larger markets where Frutarom operates like Russia and Europe and the European Union? Is there a potential for any divestments that you can see at this stage or do you think it's just merely marketing exercise to get the regulatory approvals? Thank you. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Well, thank you, Fintan. Let me start with the last one first. On the regulatory side, we don't see any issues and we don't expect to have to divest any business before we get the regulatory approval which is positive. And that made us actually believe that the fourth quarter is good for closing, which is ahead of the initial timeline we have given to ourselves. We are very happy about that. On the talent side for the integration, we haven't seen any significant departures, and we believe that many of the senior leaders will have a good position within IFF and will stay. And we are very happy with many of the talented people who will join the new IFF in the new makeup of the company and help us driving growth. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: From my standpoint, Fin, I mean, I think, we're also – obviously, we have a completely separate work stream around talent management and the people. As Andreas' previous comments in his prepared remarks, very strong talent base. Part of that work stream is identifying who those key people are and reaching out to them and having discussions before closing in terms of what the vision is for the future.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Hi. Good morning. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Good morning, Faiza.

Faiza Alwy - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Hi. I just wanted to go back first to pricing in the quarter. If you could just update us on – or give us more color around where the pricing is coming from? Like is it more – my sense is that it's coming maybe more from the smaller customers – and then you expect in the back half to get more pricing from your more global customers? And then maybe if you could disaggregate sort of how much of it is coming from Fragrances versus Flavors? And within Fragrances, how much is Fragrance Ingredients versus the other components? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Sure, Faiza. I mean, in general, I would say that the pricing is skewed towards Fragrances versus Flavors. And then within that, it's a balance between Compounds and the Ingredients business was, you know, we've talked in the past, Fragrance Ingredients business generally works off a six-month contract. So, they generally – the impact is seen sooner on the Ingredients side. On the Fragrance Compounds side, the timing is often driven by one, the process to identify where and when the choices are made about the adjustments. And in some cases, can be driven by the indices or the contract on when the windows open up. The details on global versus local and regional, it's hard to say. So, I think it's more around those three businesses. More Fragrances than Flavors and more of what we see today is on Ingredients versus Compounds.

Faiza Alwy - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Understood. And then, unless I missed it, I don't think you reiterated your previous outlook around double-digit EPS cash accretion in year two post the deal. So, I was just wondering if that still stands, and if it does, maybe you could walk through some of the components of that? We understand the synergy phasing, but maybe if you could just update us on what type of underlying growth you're expecting? And maybe if you've baked in anything for incremental acquisitions there? Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Mike, I'm sorry, I can't control this. So it still stands. Let's put that clear, and Rich can explain. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. I mean, we haven't – we reiterated the guidance today around our core business. We were not talking about the Frutarom deal that we will cover, as Mike said earlier and Andreas talked about, we'll cover that after the deal closes. But, overall, the big part of the year-over-year on a cash basis accretion is driven by the synergies. When we go from 25% to 70%, the cash flow generation of the business is quite significant. We expected to pay down the debt quite significantly, very quickly. So we get both the operating profit gain as well as the interest expense reductions that are driving it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Lambert with Raymond James.

Patrick Lambert - Raymond James Financial International Ltd.

Management

Hi. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking a few questions. A brief one, just going back on citral, I mean, every company has a different timing of impact apparently. And do you think that actually for you guys, the bulk of the impact – I think it was last year about $45 million for the year – total without any mitigation. Is it more in Q2 versus the rest of the year or there's still more to come just for citral impact? That's question number one. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. I think for that first part, I mean as we talked about on the last call, I mean, the impact was small in Q1. As I talked about at the time, most of the higher costs were sitting in inventory. So I think when you think about the overall impact, Q2, Q3 are the pressure points. And then on the input cost side, we expect the purchasing cost to come down as the citral line stabilizes. And then on the other side, we start to fully recover the – we get the pricing takes hold and that will further mitigate the impacts.

Patrick Lambert - Raymond James Financial International Ltd.

Management

And you still believe you can – out of the 7%, recover about 5% of impact – the percentage points of your bridge? Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. We still believe that currently the impact in the year this year will be about a 2% headwind, so somewhere between $10 million and $15 million on operating profit.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge.

Jonathan Feeney - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Management

Good morning. Thanks very much. I wanted to – when you think about your sales forecast, maybe this is a question more for Rich or maybe Andreas. Do you have implicit in that an assumption about acceleration or deceleration in your end customer markets? How much visibility do you have into that? And finally, could you characterize the growth in your portfolio, in your customers right now between small or local – either small, local, or both kinds of customers versus global customers? And I asked because it seems like, persistently your growth rate is so much better than if I put together just a – sloppily put an index together of what appear to be all your major CPG customers, you've been growing a lot faster for a long time on an organic basis. So, just trying to get my hands around that and how you think about that as your forecast? Thank you. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Sure, Jon. So, first of all, what we see certainly is that the smaller and mid-sized customers are providing us with better growth than the big ones. And now, with some of the moves we have done in our own core business like Tastepoint, for example, we are covering better these smaller and mid-sized customers which give us some good growth here. So, that's good. And actually, this is one of the reasons for the Frutarom deal because it will give us even more exposure towards these customers. And we feel very excited about this. In general, if you look at the volume trends, they are pretty robust, I would say also with our end customers since, I would say, probably third quarter last year, and we see still pretty robust volume trends. We saw it in our first quarter, for example, where we were circling through our inventory much faster than we saw and particularly on the Fragrance side. We don't see a deceleration of these trends, but you never know. So, that's certainly for something we have to see, and we are in constant dialogue with our customers all the time to figure out where they stand and how much growth they see going forward. But so far, the volume trend is intact for our customers which is actually good news for us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Hundley with Vertical Group.

Brett Hundley - The Vertical Trading Group LLC

Management

Hey. Thanks for fitting me in, guys. I just have one question. I'm trying to think more about your – the ability of your Fragrance segment margins to rebound in 2019. And, Rich, I thought you had an interesting comment on pricing when you talked about raw material inflation continuing into fiscal 2019. And, I don't know, I'm just reading your comment as a very public and signaling and talking about how it's imperative that you get pricing through or look at other actions. If I'm not reading too much into that comment, as you guys have pricing discussions, ongoing pricing discussions with customers, do you feel like you're getting to any type of price ceiling on the synthetic side or do you feel like you're running into any challenges on taking pricing higher? And maybe related to that, if it's not pricing, do you guys believe that you can deliver another round of cost savings following what you've done over 2017 and 2018. Are you feeling better about maybe walking your synergy number from Frutarom higher or maybe walking it faster? Can you just talk about the other ways, that if you don't go out and get pricing that you might be able to offset further oncoming inflation? Thank you. Richard A. O’Leary - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Sure. Thanks. Look, I'm never going to sit here in my role and tell you that getting the price increase is easy. It's not. It's a long process. I think we have better tools available to us today to help our teams have fact-based conversations with our customers at a very detailed level that we hadn't had six or seven years ago. And that's imperative to our ability to get those price increases. Would I like them to come sooner?…

Operator

Operator

And we have reached the allotted time for Q&A. I would now like to turn the call back over to Andreas for closing remarks. Andreas Fibig - International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.: Yeah. Thank you for all the great questions. It was a good session. I hope you got the answers you needed. And as usually, we follow-up with one-on-one calls for more detailed information. Thank you very much guys. Have a good day. Bye-bye. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect.