Andrew K. Silvernail
Analyst · Robert Baird
Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everybody. I appreciate you joining us here for our fourth quarter and full year wrap up. And before I get into the discussion on the details of 2014 or outlook for 2014 and the Q1 recap, I just want to talk a little bit about an overview of our performance, the execution of our strategy, a couple of comments on capital deployment and our view of our markets across the globe. If you look at our strategy and our execution, a year ago we outlined for 2013 that we thought we were going to be faced with pretty slow markets, unevenness across the globe and some challenges. And we got pretty much what we expected in terms of the overall end-market outlook. We were committed to make our own luck and I feel like we really did that. We drove productivity aggressively and we reinvested in our core markets, our core customers and new products across the globe. And the results, I think, showed. Our team delivered 2013. We had record sales, earnings and cash flow. And as we start to enter 2014, we have a pretty solid backlog across the segments. I would say that market conditions are marginally better. I think in the fall, people got a little bit ahead of themselves with the overall conditions in the global markets, but I would say that they are better than they were a year ago. We have a very strong set of businesses that have terrific positioning. And we have a team that's proven its ability to really navigate in whatever environment we're faced with they can really deliver results. As I look at the highlights for 2013, we had a strong growth in orders especially in the back half of the year, operating margins were up 110 basis points year-over-year and free cash flow was 148% of net income, which is really outstanding. At the same time we made significant investments, that we outlined coming into the last year, where we took $30 million out of our cost base in 2012 to reinvest for growth, and we did just that. And the results have started to show. We had improving order trends in the back half the year. We have solid backlog heading into 2014. Again, we've expanded margins, cash flow and our return on capital is something that we have spent a lot of time internally trying to drive and we've seen really nice improvement here this year and, really, over the last couple of years. We're also delivering improvements in some of the businesses that had been underperforming in the past, specifically Water services, our Fire business and Optics. They all had really solid years in terms of improving profitability driving execution and starting to invest in the future. So as I look ahead at 2014, I'd say there are improving organic growth trends, even though we're still going to have what I think is an uneven environment. We expect 2014 to be modestly better than 2013. But there are clouds that are still on the horizon, so we're going to be cautious about how we tackle these things and where we make investments. We're not going to ignore the reality of what's happening in certain places around the world. And we're going to really be -- we're really going to continue to be disciplined in our strategy and the execution of our strategy. So the bottom line is, we're going to continue to make our own luck. Let me take a few second and talk about what we're seeing across the globe. North America, demand continues to be positive overall, but I think we need to keep a pretty tight grip on the end markets. The industrial markets, specifically in North America, have been strong for a number of years. We're certainly starting to see improvement in some of the science and technology markets versus last year. But it's important not to get ahead of ourselves. Europe has clearly stabilized but from a pretty low base. And I think it's going be modestly better in 2014 versus 2013. China, we're a long-term investor in this market, but I think -- and '14 is going to be better than '13, but there's still a lot of volatility in China and we expect that to be, frankly, forever, and we're making long-term investments in that region and we're going to continue to do so. Emerging markets have been a very good story for us for a long time and they continue to be and we expect them to be for the long term. Again, we anticipated a low growth environment in 2013. 2014 I think will be a little bit better, and we're really making the investments to accelerate growth. Again, I talked about the productivity that we've gained to reinvest in growth last year. We put money into new products, into product management. We've expanded our footprint in Asia specifically and in the Middle East. Our sealing business, we've put investments in selling and in the new manufacturing facility in Houston. And I think we're going to see more results from these investments as we go into this year. Overall, an important piece to the value creation story for us is just capital deployment, where we're fortunate to have a great balance sheet and terrific cash flow. And so a differentiator for us is certainly how we use that cash. And as I look at this year, we're in a great position to continue to fund fully our organic growth and drive profitability and performance in that manner. At the same time, we're going to grab those other levers. And as we think about our investments that we've made we've returned $240 million to shareholders in share repurchases in dividends, a record in 2013. We've made one acquisition in 2013. Frankly, we would have done -- liked to have done more and that's something we spent an awful lot of time working that funnel. The valuation environment generally is still a challenging environment, especially for larger properties. But there are absolutely deals to be done in the range and in the markets that we look at, and I think 2014 has the potential to see a few things break our way. All right, with that let me turn to the fourth quarter detail. I'm on Slide 5. So for the year, we had revenue of $2 billion. It was up 4%, up 2% organically, pretty much in line with our expectations. Really good news as we built about $48 million of backlog and orders were up 7% versus the prior year. Again, we had operating margins that expanded 110 basis points, that's up to 19.5%. Excellent performance on productivity, improved share and mix. So I think really nice performance across the board in driving profitability. Results are really highlighted by truly outstanding performance in Fluid & Metering, up 250 basis points. And Health & Science, which is up 150 basis points. And I'll go through some more detail in a moment on both of those. For the full year, EPS came in at $3.09. That was a 15% increase from our adjusted 2012 numbers. We improved working capital by $31 million and this really accounted for the great cash conversion. We produced $379 million of free cash flow. Again that was 148% of net income. As you look at Q4, earnings were $0.82. It was at the high end -- above the high end of our range. It was up 19% from prior year. Sales were up 5% and orders were up 8%, and they're up 7% organically, as I mentioned. These are really solid results and I think they give us decent momentum as we go into the first quarter here. As we look to the future, we made some really targeted investments yet again, specifically in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, we took $6 million of cost. We took hit to our P&L in the fourth quarter, $6 million of cost, to improve our overall cost structure. And as always, we expect those productivity investments to pay off, both in terms of profitability, more importantly in terms of investing for growth. It's really about getting ahead and we're going to continue to make those investments. As we digest that into our P&L, we also did have something that offset that, which was an investment for -- rather a return of $4 million from Matcon, which really those 2 things offset each other largely. So in summary, I'm proud of 2013. We've built a strong foundation for success, and I think we're in a good position to deliver on 2014. All right. Let's move over to the segment discussions. I'm on Slide 6 and as always, we'll start with Fluid & Metering. Bottom line, Brett Finley and his team had a great year and they deserve accolades for what they got done this year, very strong performance. Orders were up 3% organically; sales were up 4% organically; operating margins, as I mentioned, were up 250 basis points; and they're in a really nice position as we go forward into 2014. If you look at the different platforms, energy had a very, very good year. They had strong core markets, they had share gains in developed markets and really good mobile expansion. A big piece of that story has been expanding across the globe and they've done a very nice job there. In our Chemical, Food & Process business, solid improvements in orders, sales and operating margins. Really outstanding performance in terms of improvement coming from our Richter brand in terms of growth across the globe, and certainly our Viking brands as we continue to win our core markets and make investments for growth there. If you look at our Ag business, the Banjo brand, they had another good year. They're capturing share, they're introducing new products and they're capitalizing on OEM demand. Order patterns remains strong in the fourth quarter and we have pretty good visibility here through the first half the year. That said, we're very, very well aware of what's been happening in that market and as we get through this year, we'll revisit that. But so far, we're still seeing some strength here coming out of Banjo. If you put our Water business, the municipal service markets, they've improved modestly. Our win rate has been faster, certainly, than the markets so we've seen some decent pickup there. The team has been very successful at capturing share. And the demand has really been driven by some big projects in the U.S. and in Japan that we've won. And I really give credit to the team there for focusing their commercial strategies and the new product strategies on some poor markets that we think are most attractive in terms of growth and profitability and executing against that. The industrial part of Water, which really focuses on dosing pumps, saw modest growth this year. And frankly, we were very focused on improving the overall operating capability of that business. We saw very, very nice improvement in profitability there. And I think they're going to have modest growth in 2014, and we think they're well positioned for success going forward. All right. Let's move to Slide 7 and we'll talk about Health & Science. Overall, for the year, solid order growth, 3%, and very good backlog going into 2014. Margins were up 150 basis points to 19.1%. Importantly in the quarter, we saw order growth of 10% year-over-year. Margins were actually up 180 basis points if you consider the $3 million of cost that we incurred in the P&L to drive productivity. So it doesn't read as attractive as that in the stated numbers, but the underlying number is certainly better, and I think we're, again, we're well-positioned here as we go into the year. If you look at our Scientific Fluidics business, this was a winner for us all year. And John Arnott and the team there, they delivered order and sales growth in every quarter of the year, even when the markets were softer, we looked at the first part of the year. The team has gained share and they've exceeded market growth, really through excellent customer focus and new product introductions. So nice job there with the team. We're seeing, really, markets pick up modestly in the U.S. We're starting to see some relief in some of the government funding issues. A little bit better end-market spending and Asia continues to be relatively strong for us. In Optics & Photonics, as we talked about, really, throughout the year, we finally anniversary-ed the business that we walked away from in 2012, and we saw some pick up here in orders in the fourth quarter. We expect top line stability continue in 2014. The markets are stabilizing and we have been seeing some improvement in Semiconductor and in life science. And obviously, we're realizing the benefits of the cost-out actions now as we saw sequential margin improvement. So we expect to see continued improvement here through 2014 in the Optics & Photonics business. And the team there has done what we said that they would do and they're starting to really positioned themselves nicely. Our specialty seals business had a strong fourth quarter and full year. The outlook there is positive. We're making some significant investments in that business and in growth in the U.S. and in Asia. And we think that the Houston facility comes online in at the end of this year or start of next year, we're going to be in a nice position to grow that business. So finally, within Health & Science. Our Material Process business is a long-cycle business and that's a little bit unusual within the IDEX portfolio. But they've had 4 consecutive quarters now of orders and sales growth, and pretty solid prospects and profit improvement in 2014. All right. I'm on our final segment, diversified, Slide 8. Overall, orders finished the year strong. It was up 10% year-over-year. Organic sales were only up 1% and obviously that's a difference in a few large orders that we talked about in the past, and obviously we'll get into some detail here. Organic -- excuse me, operating margins, they decreased 80 basis points for the year and this decline is really due to the fact that the replenishment order that we got in 2012 didn't repeat in full in 2013 and, obviously, those are -- there's some pretty high contribution margins in that business. On the Dispensing side, orders continue to be distorted for the business. If you recall, last quarter we discussed the large order that we received. As we enter the year, obviously, we have a pretty strong backlog, and that order is going to ship throughout the first half the year. And the timing of that, we've got to really keep our hands on because, obviously, that's a large order and important to us. The team has done a terrific job globally in terms of customer service, innovation, geographic expansion and cost improvement. If you look at the Fire Suppression group, they closed out the year with 4 consecutive quarters again of order and sales growth. We made significant investments in 2012 and they've really come to fruition, especially in the energy markets with new products and market development that we focused on there. And again, nice job with the overall profit expansion. Our Rescue business, they had a soft fourth quarter, but it's been stable on a sequential basis. We saw, specifically in Asia, some real tightness in government spending in Asia in the back half of the year. And I suspect we're starting to see that improve a little bit. But that did hurt the overall order growth in that business in the back half the year. But a really nice job on profit improvement and all signs that, that capital is going to be released in 2014, and they'll have -- they'll be back to growth here. BAND-IT, another solid year in terms of sales growth and excellent profitability. And they closed out the year with pretty decent order growth in North America. And the investment that we made in our China footprint for BAND-IT got some real momentum in the back half of 2013 and will serve us well as we get into this year. All right. Let's talk about our 2014 guidance, I'm on Slide 9. I going to start at the top of the bridge and just walk through this like we do every year. We anticipate kind of low-mid-single-digit growth across the platforms. And this should give us kind of 20% to 30% -- $0.20 to $0.30 of EPS and that's the typical flow through that you expect from us. If you look at FX and a lower share count, those are each going to give us about $0.03 in the year, so they're going to be a tailwind or a good guide for the full year of 2014. We are going to have some headwind here on higher tax rate and it's going to cost us about $0.07 in the year. My guess is you've kind of been hearing this from a lot of different places, but there are a number of discrete items that happened and Heath and I can go into any detail people want of tax benefits that we got in 2013 that, frankly, just not going to recur. At least, we don't expect to recur. Productivity, I'm very, very happy with this. Productivity is a $0.09 positive for us as we look at this year. And I'm very happy with the overall job the teams did. We're fortunate to be in a low inflation environment and to be able to get ahead here and we're doing so. And this really allows us to continue to fund growth initiatives. So we're going to put about $0.04 a share over and above our normal investment rate, and continue to try to get ahead in the business. All right. I'm on the final slide here, Slide 10. So some guidance for Q1 and then the total guidance here for the full year. So in the first quarter, we expect earnings to be $0.83 to $0.85, operating margins will be right around 20% in the quarter. And so we think that we're in decent shape in that range. Obviously, we've got some strength from the Dispensing order that's going to help that and we expect to have a solid first quarter. So for the full year, we expect EPS to be $3.33 to $3.43. Organic growth, again, is going to be kind of 3% to 5% and we think operating margins are going to be about 20% for the full year. We had said in the past that we thought we have a quarter where we hit operating margins with a 2 in front of it, one time in 2014, very happy that we achieved that in the fourth quarter. And we think we have a legitimate shot of having 20% operating margins for all of 2014. As always, a few other modeling items just for you to consider. The tax rate's probably going to be 29% to 29.5%. Again, I talked about some of the headwinds there, including the R&D tax credit that, so far, has not been renewed. We've got a -- that onetime good guide [ph] this year from the U.K. tax benefit that flowed through our balance sheet in the P&L, that obviously, you're not going to get that onetime benefit. And in the Matcon, the $4 million in Matcon benefit that we got in the fourth quarter had some nice tax implications, and we're not going to see the benefits of that as we go forward. CapEx, we should be somewhere in the $40 million to $45 million range. We are certainly ramping organic investment and we expect see that come through in our CapEx. And we think free cash flow will be between 120% and 125% of net income. As always, this excludes the impact of acquisitions or charges associated with them and we'll deal with those as they come up. So to summarize, very proud of our 2013 results. I am -- I think our team did a really nice job. I'm proud of their focus and execution and dedication to our customers and what that turns into for our results for our shareholders. I still think we're going to have an uneven economy in 2014 and we're preparing for that. But as always, we're going to really control our own destiny. And we're going to focus on delivering for our customers, delivering for our shareholders and, frankly, delivering for our teammates. So with that, I'll pause. Operator, we can open up the line for any questions.