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ICICI Bank Limited (IBN)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 27, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the ICICI Bank Q2 FY18 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. And there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Chanda Kochhar, Managing Director and CEO of ICICI Bank. Thank you, and over to you, ma'am.

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

Thank you and good evening to all of you. So our Board has approved the financial results for the quarter ended 30th September, 2017. We continue to make good progress on the strategic priorities that we had outlined in our 4 by 4 Agenda which basically covers priorities around our Portfolio Quality and around Enhancing Franchise. Coming specifically to this quarter, a few things that I would like to highlight is that first we continue to maintain our focused approach to growth. So our domestic loan portfolio grew by 12.8% year-on-year basis. Within that the retail portfolio grew by 18.6% year-on-year basis and the growth in retail portfolio was strong across all the retail products. During this Q2, 2018, we also saw an uptick in the domestic corporate loan growth. So if we exclude the net NPAs, restructured loans and loans and the drilldown list then the growth on the domestic corporate portfolio was actually 14%. Not just that about 90% of the disbursement from the domestic corporate portfolio in H1, 2018, were to corporate [ph] rated A minus and above. The net growth also came in the SME portfolio, which grew by about 6%. But as we saw the growth of these portfolios we also saw some reduction in some parts of our balance sheet. One is the net NPAs restructured loans and the loans in the drilldown list which declined by 30.9% year-on-year basis. And secondly the loan portfolio on overseas branches declined by 21.6% on year-on-year basis. So therefore the overall loan growth was 6.3% and the overall domestic loan growth was 12.8%. Coming to our funding profile, funding profile remains healthy because the savings account deposits increased 21.5% year-on-year and current account deposits increased 17.2% year-on-year. The outstanding CASA ratio on 30th September, 2017 was 49.5%.…

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Good evening to all of you. I’ll first talk about our performance on growth and credit quality. I’ll then talk about the P&L details, subsidiaries and finally capital. First on growth, the domestic loan growth was 12.8% year-on-year as of September 30, 2017. This has been driven by strong growth in the retail business. Within the retail portfolio the mortgage and auto loan portfolios grew by 17% and 15% year-on-year respectively. Growth in the business banking and rural lending segments was 26% and 16% year-on-year. Commercial vehicles and equipment loans grew by 14% year-on-year, the unsecured credit card and personal loan portfolio grew by 39% year-on-year off of course a relatively small to INR 249.55 billion and constituted about 5.2% of the overall loan book as of September 30th. We continue to grow the unsecured credit card and personal loan portfolio, primarily driven by a focus on cross sell to our existing customers. The SME portfolio constituted 4.3% of the total loans, as of September 30, 2017. The net advances of the overseas branches decreased by 21.6% year-on-year in rupee terms and 20% year-on-year in U.S dollar terms as of September 30, 2017 reflecting our overall approach to corporate lending, as well as the repayment of FCNRB deposit linked loans in fiscal of 2017. The international loan portfolio has now reduced to 14.9% of our total loans. Coming to the funding side, the total deposits grew by 11% year-on-year to INR 4.99 trillion as of September 30, 2017. On a daily average basis, current and savings account deposits grew by 24.2% year-on-year, on a daily average basis the CASA ratio was 45.2% in the second quarter. Moving on to credit quality, gross NPA additions were INR 46.74 billion in Q2 of 2018. The retail portfolio had gross NPA additions of…

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much sir. [Operator Instructions] First question is from the line of Mahrukh Adajania from IDFC Securities. Please go ahead.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

Yes hi. On RBI audit the report of which will come out next quarter, I mean, this quarter, there are lot of names floating around for other banks whose audit is complete. So based on that would there be any guidance on what would be the size of divergence in the next quarter because that’s one key figure that everyone is tracking?

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

Yes Mahrukh, we said earlier also that the final process of RBI supervisory review is not complete so we awaits the final report. And during that period it’s not appropriate for us to talk about any specific cases or any other bank specific issues.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

Okay. And just in term of the watch list, of course you have clarified what slipped outside the watch list and there are details in the -- there are good enough details in the presentation. But over the last two quarters the slippage from the watch list is low. So how do we view the watch list going ahead as in that do you expect -- so this question is not about slippages outside the watch list, this question is focused on the watch list that has the asset quality on the watch list stabilized now? Or do you expect to those slippage ratio from the watch list to be lower now than what your expected say five months ago or six months ago?

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

It's a drilldown list, but I'll tell Kannan to answer.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

So Mahrukh in terms of the drilldown list that we've given across the sectors. One of the things is that indeed some of those loans are under various RBI differentiation schemes that is either an SDR is underway or a change management outside SDR. So those things are there and that is something where a differentiation is there. So in terms of the specific sector like fees for example indeed the performance of the companies has generally been improving over the last couple of years. But other sectors there clearly is stress and we'll have to see how the classification moves over the coming quarters from the drilldown list.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

Okay. And just in terms of margins, the margins have turned out to be better than what most people expected. How do you view margins going ahead? So would you be revising your guidance for the full year now or have do we view it?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

In terms of -- we had said that our margin should be more than 3% for the year. So clearly the first half we have been at 3.27%. So for the year we will definitely end up higher than the initial estimate that we had given. For the second half of the year we would expect the margins to be above 3%. So for the full year it will be average of 3.27% and what we see in the second half of the year. There has been some benefit that we got from the reduction in the savings deposit rates of 50 basis points partly it came in the September quarter part of it will come in the coming quarters. Kannan talked about some of the benefit that we got from the interest on the income tax refunds in Q1 and Q2 as well.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

And as I mentioned we also had decent collection from the non-approval loans during the second quarter.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Thank you. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Kunal Shah from Edelweiss Securities. Please go ahead.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. So particularly with respect to the RBI’s second list and the provisioning which we are covering today so the net sprout [ph] and looking at the assessment of what could be the sustainable debt in say these exposures 18 borrowers, when do we think of say providing extra. So it's like we waiting for the admission and say the final resolutions under NCLT or maybe till December. So how would be the overall provisioning on almost like 10,000 odd crores?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

As I mentioned in my remarks, we do have a provision cover of about 31.5% currently and the time has been given still 13th of December to work out a resolution plan. So we are working on that resolution plan and failing which we'll have to refer to NCLT by December 31st, and the provisions still are to be taken before 31st of March. So we will continue to work on these cases and see how it develops.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Okay. So in terms of this…

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

And also in the meanwhile in some of the cases depending on the budgeting normal 18 provisions also will happen.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

So, if it gets refer to NCLT and given that that would be 180 day deadline so would it get pushed to the next fiscal in terms the further provisioning or it will have to be taken prior to the March this particular period?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

RBI guideline has very clear, that 50% provisioning will have to be taken in this financial year.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Even on the second list.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Even on the second list that is quite clear that the resolution process is a separate one. That will take 180 to 270 days depending on how we progress as an FC under FCFT [ph].

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Okay. And in terms of the expression of interest which are coming for say first 12 cases, what is our assessment in terms of maybe the fair value which we would have estimated for a particular entity and now the expression of interest and the supply of maybe the assets which would be available. Is there a used scope of bid down under the NCLT resume of this and the recoverability could be lower?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

This we have said earlier also that the steel companies in the first list that they have been showing a good EBITDA and the industry prospectors are much better today. So we do believe that there could be good amount of sustainable debt in that portfolio. So if you really remember earlier when we discussed about some of these assets, we said that 50% plus debt would have been sustainable even under the S4A process. So, things have stabilized there so the operating plans we are very confident of getting a decent amount of sustainable debt. So I think that outlook even now continues things have only gotten better from there.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

But apart from steel maybe the others haven’t maybe EPC and also, I think given the underlying assets are not much so that’s…

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Yes, it depends on case-by-case we will have to really look at it. So there as I said we have increased the provisioning covers by taking the entire hit upfront in this quarter itself. So, that will really help us in terms of having a good provision coverage ratio and the set of those effects also.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Okay. And lastly, in terms for the MCL how much has transitioned to MCLR from 56% in the last quarter?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

So it is 62% of domestic floating rate loans and all into MCL.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

62% that’s compared to 56% last quarter. Okay, yes. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Pawan Ahluwalia from Laburnam Capital. Please go ahead.

Pawan Ahluwalia

Analyst

Thanks. I just want to shift gears and talk a little bit about the retail side of sales. So, the progress on CASA is obviously quite impressive, I was just wondering when I look at the asset side of the book it looks like it’s a very conservatively constructed book. I was just wondering given the CASA you’ve gathered given the scale and franchise you have and given the investments you are making in technology. Is there room to do more in terms of the kinds of things some of your peers are doing with deeper penetration on unsecured loans, on credit cards, on really the high yielding portion of book. Because plain vanilla retail is already intensely competitive and may even get more so, depending on how PSUs react to the recapitalization. And in a similar way the fee income growth has been fairly sluggish. So, I was hoping to get your perspective on what the retail strategy is likely to look like over the next few years? Is there a scope of doing at a higher margin better fee generating retail products or is it likely to be very conservatively constructed book and you’re willing to go for margin and fees, you follow a risk.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Yes, so if you look at the retail the growth over the last several quarters it has been extremely robust and even now we have got the number of about 18% growth and we said that for the full year, we will do anything between 18% to 20% growth. So given the kind of improvement we seen we believe that it’s a very good robust growth we have seen. And within that if we look at how the high margin businesses we have indeed seen a much higher growth although as you said the base is a little small there, but as a proportion it is increasing. So, to -- our own strategy is clearly good growth not at a cost of quality that is something which we are very clear about. We have pushed many livers if you really look at the kind of things we have done in the last few quarters the branch base to sourcing has increased a lot. We have also mined our data to look at prequalified offers for our existing customers. And thirdly, we have deployed technology and big data to make sure that we do the analytics and then expand our business in this area. So, from our side we are not really holding back, but we just wanted to make sure that as we grow the portfolio the quality is intact, which is what has happened we will continue to grow this portfolio going forward. Fee income growth, yes it is about 13.5% today in the retail segment, which we think is good and of course as you said as we move along there is an opportunity to further increase the fee income growth in the retail area. So, I clearly want to give a message saying that we are growing and we are growing quite robust manner even the recent indicators of growth are showing a very robust growth in this portfolio within the quality parameters we will be very happy to grow this business further.

Pawan Ahluwalia

Analyst

Given what you said is it reasonable to expect another two, three year horizon your metrics on the retails funds in terms of penetration of the higher margin products the overall retail NIM, etcetera will converge with the best in class private sector peers that you have?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

So I don’t want to make any interbank comparison this best in class or otherwise, but what I feel is that as a proportion clearly like you said that it will go up from here. And we believe that we have looked at the portfolio quality it is growing with a very good quality. So, at a proportion it will definitely increase from here.

Pawan Ahluwalia

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. In order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants, we request the participants to please limit your questions up to one. [Operator Instructions]. We move to the next question that’s from the line of Ravikant Bhatt from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.

Ravikant Bhatt

Analyst

Yes, hi thanks for the opportunity. Just I was referring to your comments post the fourth quarter results where you said that for the year as a whole, that your overall slippages will be significantly lower compared to FY17. So I mean looking at your performance in H1, would you still be reasonably confident that this performance can be repeated in H2 on the slippages part.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Yes, we are absolutely confident that the slippages for this current financial year is going to be significantly lower than last year.

Ravikant Bhatt

Analyst

Okay. And just again rewinding a bit, if it’s possible for you to give some color on what kind of common boxes would the accounts identified earlier has divergent would have checked like for example were this SMA2 accounts or they were delinquent elsewhere, but not delinquent in your books, or belonging to particular NO segments. What kind of common boxes would these have checked?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

There would not give a LEP [ph] such as common element to be identified, I think it’s more of a case specific, borrower specific kind of an issue, which is there. So if you look at our portfolio I think we have in addition to the NP and the restructure loans talked about the drilldown list also and some of the loans which are under RBI expectation schemes, that is the broad overall portfolio which is there.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

And you know endeavor this time has been to give you full sense of the residual portfolio. As I mentioned specifically particular sugar asset, which we believe will get sorted out over the next few months because of the binding agreement, which has been entered into for changing management that’s of the order of about INR 17 billion. And also we thought we should give you a color on the residual portfolio, and we looked at the double BB and below internally rated portfolio the maximum exposure to single borrower was INR 6 billion. So we believe that apart from all the disclosures you have seen from us in terms of NPA restructured and other drilldown, et cetera the residual portfolio on the corporate side, which is below investment grade is quite a granular portfolio that is a sense we wanted to give you.

Ravikant Bhatt

Analyst

Sure, I think this is helpful. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Nitin Agrawal from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Nitin Agrawal

Analyst

Thanks for the opportunity. So my question is over past two quarters we have had downgrades amounting to nearly almost 200,000 odd crores, which has been hampering the reduction in the watch list. So is it possible to get a sense of assets which are under rating watch and thus potentially can get added to the watch list going ahead?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

We did, talk about in the last quarter there was a particular development in a power sector company because of which it got downgraded from investment grade to below investment grade for us. So these are actually based on ongoing developments, which happens so it’s not that there is an immediate list of accounts which can potentially be downgraded which is available. In a large portfolio as you would appreciate there could be some downgrades and upgrades which happen on the overall portfolio. In general as we have said we do not expect any lumpy kind of a thing to come up in terms of the downgrades on the portfolio but beyond that it’s very difficult to say.

Nitin Agrawal

Analyst

Okay. And the other thing is like do you think that is this possible that ICICI bank can report say zero or negligible divergence with the RBI or you think it is very difficult for banks with big corporate portfolio to have that in the current environment?

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

I think we shouldn’t alter it, just wait…

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Yes, we should not comment on it, we will have to wait for the final report to get.

Nitin Agrawal

Analyst

I am not asking just in respect to this year, but say probably in the following year. Can you like assure that we will not have any bigger divergence running into thousands of crores say even for the next fiscal?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

So it’s very difficult to give assurance on a go forward basis, but in general yes when there is a divergence one also looks at internal processes and fees, what the regulator is expecting on some of these accounts but beyond that it’s an evolving thing, which is there. The regulator also has been changing its approach. So we have to see that we can’t give really -- I don’t think any bank can give an assurance on that on a go forward basis. But as we said that for the current year, our assessment is that our NP additions for the year will be significantly lower than the last year.

Nitin Agrawal

Analyst

Right. And one small thing also if I may ask, does the RBI break the entire portfolio or is it some proportion of the portfolio, which gets waited while it analyzes the divergence?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

It's like any supervisory process or any inspection process where is you would look -- you won’t really go account by account across the entire portfolio for banks. You would look at -- you would have your owns criteria to which accounts you would want to review and all. So there would be some kind of a sampling, which would be there across all the banks.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

And it is a risk based supervision which is RBI adopting. So based on that they have -- they will look at files whatever their appropriate system in the bank and at the same time they also have the information with them of system wide contracts of these accounts. With information they choose to pick whatever they want to pick and we always give them all the information required for them to complete the assessment.

Nitin Agrawal

Analyst

Okay, thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Manish Karwa from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Hi, thanks for the opportunity. My question is on SDR now in this quarter the increase in SDR is just because of one sugar account or there are other cases as well?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

The increase in -- that’s the change in management outside…

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Yes, outside SDR. Okay.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

The sugar account and then there is one indeed from the drilldown list which is there.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Okay the two accounts. And in the sugar account, do we expect full recovery or there will be a haircut that we may have to take?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

There is a binding agreement, which is we'll have to see how that kind of still if there would be any sacrifice involved or not. As of now it's very difficult to comment on that.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Okay. And on the mining account wherein we have implemented the change in management, what’s the update there? Because it's been almost three quarters since this has happened. When do we expect that to get concluded?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

It is part of the RBI scheme, which is the change of management outside of SDR. The mine is operating and beyond that we'll continue to dialog for a management say nothing specific further to update during the quarter on that.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Okay. But how long can you keep that as a standard asset?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

There are fixed time frames within RBI. So that timeline has to be followed in respect of this account also.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Okay. And just one data point, what was the oil and gas account that slipped, I mean, what was the quantum of that?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

It could be a very large part of the slippage that you are seeing from outside the identified set of accounts, but we have not given a specific number for that.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Okay. And lastly what was the retail and SME slippage during the quarter?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Retail slippage of about INR 6.6 billion compare to about INR 8.79 billion in the previous quarter.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

SME and corporate we give the combined numbers.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Okay. So 6.6 is SME and retail put together.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

That’s retail only.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Only retail.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Okay.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

It was INR 8.79 billion last quarter only retail.

Manish Karwa

Analyst

Yes, got it. So that's about it. Thanks so much.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Thanks, Manish.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Deepak Sharma from Alliance Bernstein [ph]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hello, good evening to everyone. I just wanted to ask if we have plans to issue offshore bonds during the second half of this fiscal year?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

As of now there are no firm plans around that, but that's an ongoing activity that we do to fund our overseas business. So depending on the loan demand that we see and the funding opportunities we would look at it.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And also with respect to the guidances for the credit cost and the NPA ratios, do you see any major change for the year end of fiscal ‘18 from the current levels?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

As we have said on the credit cost we expected to continue to be elevated and on the NPAs we would expect the additions for the years to be significantly lower than last year. These are the two things that we have said. On the credit cost in the second half of the year of course there would be some impact which could come in from the second list of accounts which RBI has asked banks to resolve before December 13, failing which it has to be referred to NCLT.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

These provisions will end up increasing the provisioning coverage ratio.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And sir for the loan growth and deposit growth will it be similar to what we have achieved in the first half?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

Loan growth, we would expect to see some improvement on both the domestic and the overseas book, domestic because last year if you remember the third and fourth quarters had a relatively lower growth because of demonetization. So, we would expect some improvement because of that on a Y-o-Y basis. On the overseas book as we have said in earlier quarters also because last year there was large repayments, which happened on the loans against FCNRB deposits so the portfolio had come down in the December quarter. So, again on a Y-o-Y basis from December you will see a lesser decline on the overseas books. So, overall the growth will improve, on domestic we would expect the growths to get to around 15% or slightly higher with retail continuing to be 18% to 20%.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, that’s it from me sir. Thank you so much.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Vishal Goyal from UBS Securities. Please go ahead.

Vishal Goyal

Analyst

Hi, thanks for the opportunity. So, I think in the residual slippage, which is around INR 22 billion was that from below investment grade book overall? Like was it -- what was like rated below triple B?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

Yes it would generally be it will almost like value B.

Vishal Goyal

Analyst

Correct that is fair. Second I think on the NCLT 2, the second list. Now what is the stage from like I am sure there is one more month left, but how much of you of this you think would basically go into any resolution scheme like any sense on that? Resolution without like I am saying NCLT?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

It is difficult to call just now because so these cases are construction cases and we’ll have to work with the other banks to complete the resolution. So we’ll have to really wait and see how it develops.

Vishal Goyal

Analyst

Okay. And the last question on the drilldown list, so almost 60% of our drilldown list is part of some RBI scheme now already roughly like 5/25, or FDR or something around that. Now so, if we were to think of mortality from here into let’s say NPL like you think like all these are kind of safe now, and the schemes are already being in place. So there is a very high probability of them staying standard?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

So it would be a mix Vishal in the sense that like the case that we added in the current quarter for change in management outside SDR. There is a binding relevant already which is there. In some of the cases which are there in the drilldown list and within RBI scheme if it’s under SDR the change in management still has to happen on those cases. So it’s not that if it is under an RBI scheme, one can assume that the solution is already kind of done and complete. So, it will be a mix. S, that’s why it’s difficult to kind of say how much could slip and how much will be standard.

Vishal Goyal

Analyst

Okay. And one last question, there is cost being rebooked, IFRS what you think is the status now like is RBI interested in IFRS for this year or because we are hearing that the final rules are not out and there is only like three months, four months left?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

So RBI in September had asked banks to submit their financials for the June quarter under IND AS, and the commission has to be done in the coming days. So to that extent RBI is clearly working on the IND AS migration from April 1, 2018. Of course banks have been expecting that maybe some of the draft guidelines because there will be changes prudential and regulatory guidelines as well those are kind of still awaited. But otherwise the IND AS, the standard itself is quite comprehensive you don’t really require too much of accounting guidelines but some of the regulatory guidelines would require a change and those draft guidelines have not come out. But otherwise from our understanding RBI is working on it and that’s why they have asked banks to submit their financial for the first quarter based on the IND AS numbers.

Vishal Goyal

Analyst

Thanks, very helpful. All the best.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Pawan Mandorra from Edelweiss Securities. Please go ahead.

Pawan Mandorra

Analyst

Thanks for the opportunity. Sir most of the questions are answered just one question, on a case in which may be seeing initial signs of stress and these are obviously not the cases which RBI mandates to be referred to IBC? How comfortable would we be to refer this cases to IBC for say some form of resolution? And like how do we see ICICI Bank or any other bank using IBC tools online. So how would we be approaching the -- with IBC in terms of resolution, wanted to understand that.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Even before this RBI list came we were the first bank to use NCLT where we thought that there is a best way to move forward, you would have -- it is not just this list one cases we also have several other cases which are in NCLT. So our approach to that would be that we will look at in the Bank’s interest, what is the best resolution mechanism possible given the environment given the asset and given our interest. So we will just go by that it has to be a case to case approach and then we will see whenever we think NCLT is an optimal way of arriving at a solution we will not hesitate to go to NCLT.

Pawan Mandorra

Analyst

Okay, thanks a lot.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nilanjan Karfa from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

Hi, Kannan. Could we have the total this interest, cash interest received from basically the NPL accounts in the first half?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Actually we don’t disclose that separately.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

Okay. But is the reported qualitatively the quantum going up on a year-by-year basis.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

The quantum is actually reasonably volatile. So to the extent Q4 if you recollect we had reported that the one reason for higher margin was the increased collection from the nonaccrual accounts. Q1 was clearly a bit lower, Q2 again was higher, because these are non-accruing accounts wherein we get cash collection. So there is no consistency across that, it has been volatile in the last two quarters and we would expect the same to be the case going forward as well.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

Okay and related to this, I mean, probably a stupid question to ask, but how do you distinguish whether it is an interest or principal payment.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

In terms of…

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

I mean it could be very easily be classified under other income.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

In some of the accounts it is indeed principal repayment also that we get in cash on these accounts. In some of them we get it as interest, based on the -- so if you look at for the quarter, if you look at overall recoveries and upgrades that we had of INR 10 billion that would be reflecting collections that we got in cash against the principal. And overall to give you a sense in terms of the interest collection and all the verdicts that I talked about it would not impact the margin by say more than 10 basis points on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So it’s not such a large number as well.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

Okay, okay that’s fair. Second and also in this call so far we are sounding very, very confident on couple of things, which is like margins still good in H2, slippages will still be lower versus last year. So would that mean that your why don’t you qualify it also saying that I don’t know what the divergences will be next quarter or do you believe based on your past experiences, this is probably not going to move the needle so much and therefore you are that much confident.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

See we have said very clearly that we cannot comment on the RBI divergence or otherwise report. What we have clearly said is that the final report is still awaited beyond that we can’t say anything on the RBI process or divergence.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

So should you note while if I saying that subject to that report received next quarter, our guidances might actually change.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

The guidance that we have given for the year is that our gross NPA additions will be significantly lower than last year, we have really not gone ahead and given a much more precise guidance on the NPA ratio number or NPA addition number. And we believe that in our assessment we should be on track to end up the year with a significantly lower NPA addition compared to last year. So that is what we believe, of course the RBI process is not complete as we speak. Similarly on the margins we ended up the first half with 3.27% the thing is that for the second half we expect the margin to be above 3%. So clearly there is some pressure which would be there because as you know that incremental lending strengths are under pressure, there will be some offset because of the full impact of the 50 basis point savings deposited cut that we are factoring in. There will be some negative because in the first half we have got very good amount of interest on the income tax refund, which may not repeat in the second half of the year. So, taking that into account we have said that the margin will be above 3%. It’s not that we are saying that the margin will be maintained or it will improve in the second half, but that will be above 3% we are quite confident given the trends that we are seeing.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

Sure, okay. And the risk of being pushed out, would you want to disclose what the total double B and below A at this stage. I understand you said per account basis it is INR 6 billion, but what is…

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

Per account basis the maximum is INR 6 billion.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

Yes, but what is it in totality or the percentage?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

If you look at in the last couple of quarters we have talked about few of these lumpy accounts on the below investment grade outside drilldown list, those are actually either slip into NPA or got resolved or one of them is in the change in management outside SDR. So, beyond that if you look at the double B and below portfolio outside of drilldown list and the various RBI dispensation schemes that we anyway disclosed separately. The largest exposure is INR 6 billion and overall the kind of addition in terms of absolute numbers that we have seen coming in from outside all of this in the last couple of quarters, given that the larger exposure now is INR 6 billion, we would not expect that to be the case. So, it should not be that much of an issue going forward.

Nilanjan Karfa

Analyst

Okay, alright. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Amey Sathe from TATA Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.

Amey Sathe

Analyst

Hello, two questions from my side. One is on the SME loan book, you talked about around 20% growth, 15% to 20% growth last quarter, but this quarter it seems that it has slowed down little bit. So anything on that side?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

For the year, we still believe that we should end up in that region of around 15% to 20% growth on the SME portfolio. For the quarter you are right on a year-on-year basis the growth was lower than what we were expecting. The market is extremely competitive in terms of pricing as well. Plus GST and all there would have been some impact which could have been there. But for the year even what we are looking at we are relatively confident of getting the growth of 15% to 20% on the SME portfolio. The other smaller business portfolio that we have which is a part of our retail business, which we disclose as the business banking portfolio that has grown at 20% plus for the year.

Amey Sathe

Analyst

Okay. And the second on the margin you talked about it will remain about 3% for FY18, but for the 2018 year as we enter and with PSU banks getting a recap capital, do you think that government might nudge them to lower rates further which can impact our margin?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

That is the possibility one doesn’t know for what reason that could have, but the fact that banks could compete away the current margins that’s something, which could happen especially given the kind of limited credit demand which is there and the surplus liquidity which is there in the system. So that is to some extent we are factoring in that when we say that the second half margin will be above 3%, while we are running at 3.2% plus currently. But you are right that it’s a risk in terms of the competitive in the market which could play out. And second of course there is a working group report from RBI which talks about linking the floating rate loans to market benchmark and other such stage. So, as and when that gets finalized and implemented one will have to see what is the impact of that as well.

Amey Sathe

Analyst

And how much headroom is there for us to improve our cost of deposits from current level?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

If you look at it, in terms of the -- we are already below 5%. So, of course if you look at for example one of the banks still has lower fixed deposit rates compared to our rates. So there is some probability of rates coming down, but I would not be certain of that. So, I think at the current level of cost of deposits it is already pretty low.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

I just want to supplement by saying that is given all our funding strategies over the last few years, we are happy to say that after 2005 it is the first time when our cost of deposits have come down below 5%. So the deposit side we are seeing very good momentum and we are very happy about our cost of funds what we've been able to achieved in that aspect.

Amey Sathe

Analyst

Okay. Got it, thanks a lot, this is especially from my side and best of luck for the next quarter.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Mayank Bukrediwala from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good evening, this is Rahul here. Well most of my questions have answered, but just wanted to get some more color on this resolution pertaining to the second list of NCLT accounts. When RBI says resolution, what exactly does this mean? Does this mean implementation of any RBI differentiation scheme or seeing satisfactory performance from these accounts? And so can you just throw some color as to what does this really imply?

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

RBI has said that a resolution would mean that if banks have residual debt to the borrower that debt should be rated investment grade by two rating agencies. So that is how they have defined the outcome of the resolution.

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

So it's a natural view under any scheme or it will just be a simple restructuring.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And since then have you seen any resolution across the industry within these 28, 30 odd accounts?

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

Some JLFs have taken place, we have discussed but I don’t think so quickly they'll decide on resolution.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it.

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

But it can be any form of resolution provided it meets that caveat what Rakesh said that the residual debt should be investment grade rated by two rating agencies.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it. Thanks. Second thing is, is it possible to get the below investment grade book for the consolidate entity, the number that we share as part of our 20-F filling?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

We disclose it on an annual basis as part of the filling.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. The other question was on so we’ve made some more provisions against the first NCLT list. So I just want to understand what would be the ideal PCR that you would like to hold on these 12 cases?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

Provisions that we are making as you know is essentially based on the RBI guidelines of aging of the loan plus the amount of loan, which is secured or unsecured. In addition of course for those cases that RBI has directed banks to refer to NCLT they have given certain minimum provisions to be made. So these provisions are being made on that basis and not really from any other context.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

So, the current provision that we hold is that sufficient or we might need to make something more?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

We would need to make something more because as the aging happens so depending on when the loan moves from substandard to doubtful one doubtful two, there will be an increase in provisioning some of those cases which would happen over the next couple of quarters itself.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Alright. So sir last question this as far as that we hold security receipts, what would be from the steel sector there and how much provisions or haircut have we taken on those? That's about it from my side. Thank you.

N.S. Kannan

Analyst

We’ve not given a sectorial breakup of the entire services.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. But any particular sec -- I mean, any mix that you can share I mean, like I guess most of it would be…

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

Fairly large number also in the context of the overall loan portfolio.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I just wanted to because we have seen performance improvement in the steel sector so I just wanted to get some sense…

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

We don't have a breakup that we could give.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it, thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'd request the participants to please limit your questions up to two, should you have a follow-up question we request you please rejoin the queue. We take the next question from the line of Adarsh Parasrampuria from Nomura. Please go ahead.

Adarsh Parasrampuria

Analyst

Just a question on power side on the watch list, do you all expect more additions because steel is a well-defined watch list in few companies, so I just wanted to understand that's the place where it looks like there could be further slippages. So I just wanted to understand that part.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

As we said it’s an ongoing internal rating exercise that we have so stands a couple of cases get downgraded, it's a possibility which is there. But as I said there is really nothing lumpy exposure that we have which we think would kind of get downgraded. But it's an ongoing exercise that we do on a regular basis. So it can always happen.

Adarsh Parasrampuria

Analyst

And that INR 6 billion number that you said of single exposure applies to even these five sectors that you have…

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

No, that is for below investment grade outside of the sectors covered in the drilldown list. Outside of these cases which are already under any kind of an RBI dispensation. So we are excluding the SDR, S4A, change in management outside SDR, 5/25 refinancing because that is already disclose separately by the Bank. So, outside of all of this the residual exposure, which is below investments grade the maximum is about INR 6 billion.

Adarsh Parasrampuria

Analyst

Okay, understood. And again getting back to that the other sector below investment grade, I am just saying that you obviously had two, three names or accounts you specified earlier and those have kind of materialized. Now, could there be chances at least the way you all see your portfolio that maybe these individual accounts are like INR 5 billion each, but you have two three of them coming for a long time every quarter or that’s not something that you would expect?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

Very difficult to say that, so we will have to see how it goes of course in the near-term there is general stress, which is there on the corporate portfolio for banks. So, if you say that will it come for a long time, for sure it will not come for a long time. Can it come for next couple of quarters it could.

Adarsh Parasrampuria

Analyst

Understood. Thanks a lot Rakesh.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Vikesh Gandhi from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Vikesh Gandhi your line has been un-muted please go ahead with your question. As there is no response we move to the next question that’s from the line of MB Mahesh from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

Hi good evening. Four simple questions, one is you had some very large transaction on the oil sector the last quarter there doesn’t seem to be a material change in the watch list just trying to understand was there any other place where it was reflected or do we see that this is going to be the running number for the next few quarter? The second question is the rating downgrade exercises -- the rating exercises which you do will include the financials which a company gives you I guess once a year and most of these companies should we giving you the financials for FY17 probably in the first-half of this year or was this exercise already completed? And the third one is the oversight committee actually any relevant any more in the current schemes of things where most of them is moving to the IBC process?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

So, on the first question regarding transaction in the oil sector. So you saw that reduction in the exposure to the promoter entities rated in the drilldown list and if you recollect the exposure in the past was about INR 60 billion or so. And in the past also we have said that some of the money was received earlier as well and that led to the reduction in terms of the exposure. So, this is reflecting the payment that we got during the September quarter, which was the residual payment that came in. On the ratings it’s an ongoing exercise and of course at the time that you get a new set of financials, you do a comprehensive rating exercise. But in addition to that depending on the rating category of the exposure you would also do a kind of a periodic review of the ratings for example if there are interim period accounts that come out statements quarterly or half yearly or is there any specify development for the borrower or for the sector. So it’s just like any rating agency would do that is what the internal risk department for the Bank does. So, it’s continuous kind of a process which is there.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

That actually the reason I am asking you, typically the downgrades in the second half tends to be higher or in the September to December quarter tends to be higher because that’s when the unlisted companies start giving you the financials right. So that’s the key worry out here.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

I am just saying that you any way would also get from our borrowers we do get their quarterly financials and all of that on a regular basis. So, it’s not that it will be a complete surprise which is coming in the financial result and it happen in a few accounts that the financials for the full year are somewhat different from what you were expecting that possible, but it’s not a large (inaudible) should be there.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

No, on the first question if the customer has paid possibly what were the dues to be received at that particular point in time. Why was it not kind of change back to -- is it now fully moved back to a standard what is balanced to be paid or it’s being fully settled and it’s over once and for all?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

No, this is the balance amount which is there.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

So why is it still part of the watch list is the question. Because if either he has paid his outstanding dues so the account gets moved to a standard, right?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

No the drilldown list is a list of all below investment grade exposures across these sectors, so because it would continue to be a below investment grade exposure, while we have got payments on that it is still a below investment grade exposure and it’s included in the drilldown list accordingly.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

No, the question is why it still a below investment grade even after that transaction has been completed?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

This is the balance exposure which is still there which needs to be repaid by the borrower.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

Helpful, I will just take it off and the oversight committee relation.

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

In terms of the oversight committee of course given that RBI is kind of directing banks to take a number of these accounts to NCLT. So to that extend it is not -- those cases will not get referred to OC. But there could still be resolutions for some others borrowers, which happen as per say the S4A scheme or so then it has to get referred to OC.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

Okay. So just one clarification the oil and gas account that was reported this quarter, does it also have any linkage to the engineering account which you reported in the previous quarter?

Rakesh Jha

Analyst

So we don’t talk about that specifically in terms of the borrower accounts.

MB Mahesh

Analyst

Sure, thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and Gentlemen with this I hand over the flow back to the management for their closing comments over to you.

Chanda Kochhar

Analyst

Well, I think as we have said that if you look at during the quarter we have seen NIMs being quite comfortable, we have seen growth in fee income, we have seen asset quality trends improving in terms of additions or level of additions to NPA. So, given all that we will keep of course watching the environment we will keep working with the developments in the ecosystem as far as resolution is concerned. But there are lots of growth opportunities that we are capitalizing on. And given our overall position on capital, on distribution network, on technology leadership and so on I think we are quite poised to participation in the growth opportunities.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much ma’am. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of ICICI Bank that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect you lines.