N. S. Kannan
Analyst · Standard Chartered
Thank you. Good evening to all of you. Welcome to the conference call on the financial results of ICICI Bank for the quarter ended September 30, 2013, which is the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2014. As always, my remarks this evening would revolve around 4 key themes: First, on the macroeconomic and monetary environment; followed by our performance during the quarter, including performance on our 5Cs strategy; then, our consolidated results; and finally, we'll talk about the outlook for the full financial year 2014. Let me start with the first part on the macroeconomic and monetary environment during the second quarter. The operating environment in the second quarter was challenging, marked by significant volatility in the financial markets, several policy changes, and also continued weakness in economic growth. During July-August 2013, concerns on tapering of quantitative easing in the U.S., as well as India's high current account deficit resulted in significant capital outflows from India, particularly in the debt segment, resulting in sharp depreciation of the rupee vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar. With a view to managing this volatility in the exchange rate, RBI announced certain measures in mid-July including an increase in the Marginal Standing Facility rate of 8.25% to 10.25%, limiting bank borrowing under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility, or LAF, to 0.5% of the net demand and time liabilities of banks and increasing the minimum daily cash reserve ratio balance required to be maintained by banks to 99% from 70% earlier. These measures led to a sharp increase in the short-term market rates by about 200 basis points. In view of the impact of the above developments on bank's treasury positions, in August 2013, RBI announced certain dispensations, including increase in the held-to-maturity, or HTM, holding limit for government securities to 24.5% of the net demand and time liabilities, onetime transfer of government securities from available for sale, or AFS category, and from HFT category to HTM category up to 24.5% at July 15, 2013, prices, and also the amortization of mark-to-market losses on the fixed income AFS and HFT book in equal installments over the remaining part of the year. The RBI also announced to open market operations of INR 80 billion of long-dated government securities in order to ease the pressure on long-term yields. In September 2013, positive developments such as the deferral of quantitative easing in the U.S., as well as RBI measures to attract foreign currency inflows, the measures on FCNR (B) deposits and increasing bank's foreign currency borrowing limits resulted in stability and appreciation of the exchange rate. Consequently, in its mid-quarter monetary policy statement on September 20, 2013, RBI reversed some of the exceptional measures by reducing MSF rate to 9.5% and the minimum daily cash reserve ratio requirement to 95% of the fortnightly requirement. The MSF was further reduced to 9% on October 7, 2013. However, with the emergence of upside risk to inflation, in its monetary policy statement, RBI increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5%. RBI also indicated its intent of normalizing monetary policy, operations with a repo rate resuming at the effective policy rate. So overall, financial markets remained volatile during the quarter. The rupee depreciated from INR 59.7 per U.S. dollar on June 30, 2013, to a low of INR 68.36 per U.S. dollar on August 28, 2013, and thereafter appreciated to INR 62.8 per U.S. dollar by end-September. Similar swings were seen in equity and bond markets. The Sensex declined by 4% till end-August 2013 before recovering in September 2013. Yields on 10-year government securities reached 9.2% as on August 19, 2013, compared to 7.5% in end-June 2013 before subsequently easing to 8.8% by end-September. So the policy focus has been on managing the volatility in exchange rate, and this resulted in volatility across all the markets, specifically the money markets. Looking at real economic activity, growth continued to remain subdued during the quarter. The Index of Industrial Production remained weak recording a growth of 0.6% in August 2013. Growth during April to August 2013 was 0.1%, even on a low base of 0.2% increase year-on-year in April to August of 2012. At the same, inflationary concerns reemerged during Q2 of 2014, with the wholesale price index increasing from 5.2% in June 2013 to 6.5% in September '13. The increase was largely due to rise in food prices, which went up 18% year-on-year in August and September 2013. Retail inflation measured by consumer price index was also high at 9.8% in September 2013. Having said this, there were positive developments during the second quarter on the external front. Exports revived, recording an increase of 11.2% during the quarter, compared to a decline of 1.6% in Q1 of 2014. Imports declined by 8.6% during the second quarter, primarily due to a decline in gold imports. As a result, India's trade deficit reduced from around USD 50 billion during Q1 of 2014 to USD 30 billion during Q2, easing concerns on the current account deficit. With respect to trends in the banking sector, non-food credited [ph] growth actually improved over 18% by end September 2013 from 13.9% at June 2013 and 15.4% at September 2012. Some of this growth is likely to have been driven by a shift of borrowing from non-bank funding market to bank borrowing, following the sharp increase in short-term market industries during the quarter. Deposit growth continued to remain muted, with total deposits recording a growth of around 14%, with some marginal improvement towards the end of the quarter. Demand deposit's growth increased to about 18% during the quarter before reverting to 11% growth levels. With this background, I now move to part 2 on the performance of the bank during the quarter. Let me begin with the progress on our 5Cs strategy. First, with respect to credit growth. Total advances on the bank increased by 15.5% on a year-on-year basis from INR 2.75 trillion at September 30, 2012, to INR 3.15 trillion at September 30, 2013. The growth in the domestic loan portfolio was 14.4% on a year-on-year basis. The domestic loan growth was driven by retail loans, with the rate of corporate loan growth declining substantially. The retail loan portfolio grew by 19.6% year-on-year as of September 30, 2013, compared to 12.6% at June end 2013. The organic retail loan portfolio, that is excluding the bought-out portfolios, grew by 27.8% at September 30, 2013, compared to 26.6% at June 30, 2013. We continue to see strong traction in this business, with mortgages and auto loan disbursements increasing year-on-year by 35% and 45%, respectively, during the quarter. The outstanding mortgage and auto loan portfolios grew by 23% and 27%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis at September 30, 2013. Commercial business loans declined by 16% on a year-on-year basis at September 30, 2013, reflecting both a slowdown in the segment as well as a rundown of the bought-out portfolio in the segment. The unsecured credit card and personal loan portfolio at INR 54.45 billion at September 30, 2013, continue to remain a small portion, about 1.7% of the overall loan book, though the growth rate is high due to the low base. We have calibrated growth in the domestic corporate portfolio to 11% year-on-year at September 30, 2013, given the operating environment. Net advances of the overseas branches increased by 18.9% on a year-on-year basis in rupee terms, primarily due to the movement in the exchange rate. In dollar terms, the net advances of the overseas branches remained stable on a sequential, as well as on a year-on-year basis at September 30, 2013. Moving on now to the second C on CASA deposits. Reflecting our strong retail franchise, we saw an additional INR 46.82 billion to our savings deposits in the second quarter. Current account deposits also increased by INR 33.91 billion during the second quarter. As a result, we maintained our period in CASA ratio at 43.3% at September 30, 2013, similar to the level at June 30, 2013. The average CASA ratio of the bank improved from 39% in Q1 to 40.3% in the second quarter. Now on the third C on cost. For the second quarter, operating cost, including DMA expenses, were higher by 4.5% on a year-on-year basis. The bank's cost-to-income ratio declined to 37.3% in the second quarter of fiscal 2014, compared to 39.4% in the first quarter. This moderation in operating expenses was primarily due to a year-on-year decline in the variable employee expenses, such as the positive impact of the movement of government securities yields on the retiral benefits. Let me now move onto the fourth C on credit quality. During the second quarter, the bank saw a gross NPA additions of INR 11.45 billion, primarily driven by slippages in the SME and midsized corporate loan portfolios. Deletions in the second quarter were INR 5.66 billion. The bank had also written off INR 5.58 billion of NPAs. The net NPA ratios, as a result, was 73 basis points at September 30, 2013, compared to 69 basis points at June 30, 2013. During the quarter, we restructured INR 10.76 billion of loans. After taking into account deletions and the required specific provisioning, the net restructured loans for the bank increased to INR 68.26 billion at September 30, compared to INR 59.15 billion at June 2013. Provision for the second quarter were at INR 6.25 billion as compared to INR 5.08 billion in Q2 of 2013 and INR 5.93 billion in Q1 of 2014. As a result, credit cost as a percentage of average advances were at 81 basis points on an annualized basis for Q2 of 2014. The provisioning coverage ratio on nonperforming loans continues to remain healthy at 73.1% at September 30, 2013. Now to the fifth C on customer centricity. The bank continues to focus on enhancing its customer service capability and leveraging on its increased branch network to cater to its customer base. During the quarter, we added 157 branches and 196 ATMs to the network. With this, we have a branch network of 3,507 branches and 11,098 ATMs at September 30, 2013. We also continue to strengthen our technology channels for increasing customer convenience. During the quarter, we launched Pockets by ICICI Bank, a first of its kind app on Facebook which offers the bank customers the convenience of banking while they are on Facebook. Pockets by ICICI Bank offers a variety of unique features such as split n' share, which allows the customers to split and track group expenses and share that with friends on Facebook, and Pay a friend facility, which allows customers to transfer funds to their friends without knowing their bank account details. Pockets by ICICI Bank has been developed with robust security features. The bank's Facebook page continues to be appreciated by the customers with about 2.5 million fan base. ICICI Bank continues to be the largest fan base on Facebook among the Indian banks. Having talked about the progress on 5Cs, let me move on to the key financial performance highlights for the quarter. The net interest income increased by 20% on a year-on-year basis from INR 33.71 billion in Q2 of 2013 to INR 40.44 billion in Q2 of 2014. The net interest margin increased from 3% in Q2 of 2013 and 3.27% in Q1 of 2014 to 3.31% in the second quarter. On a sequential basis, the international margins increased from 1.6% in the previous quarter to 1.8% in the second quarter on account of higher yields on incremental lending and a reduction in cost of funds. The domestic net interest margin was stable at 3.65% in the second quarter compared to 3.63% in the first quarter, reflecting the bank's relatively lower reliance on wholesale deposits, as well as the 25 basis-point increase in the base rate. Moving to the noninterest income, it increased by 6% from INR 20.43 billion in Q2 of 2013 to INR 21.66 billion in Q2 of 2014. We have seen an improvement in fee income growth from over 3% for the full financial year 2013, and 8.9% in the previous quarter, that is, the first quarter of the current fiscal year, to 16.7% on a year-on-year basis in that second quarter. This improvement in the fee income growth was primarily driven by growth in the retail banking fees, commercial banking fees and ForEx and derivatives income. The bank's retail fees, including remittances, contributed about 55% of the overall fees. Moving on to other income. It was INR 2.51 billion in Q2 of 2014 compared to INR 1.62 billion in Q2 of 2013 and INR 2.88 billion in the previous quarter. During the second quarter, treasury recorded a loss of INR 0.79 billion compared to a profit of INR 1.73 billion in Q2 of 2013 and a profit of INR 4.03 billion in the first quarter. As you are aware, this quarter saw significant volatility in market rates following the policy measures announced on curbing the volatility in the exchange rate. The bank has fully recognized the mark-to-market provisions of INR 2.79 billion, primarily on its investment portfolio and has not availed of the option permitted by RBI of recognizing it over the 3 quarters. Had the bank amortized the same over the 3 quarters, the treasury income for the second quarter would have been higher by INR 1.86 billion. During Q2 of 2014, the bank also transferred SLR securities with a face value of INR 23.11 billion from AFS and HFT categories to HTM category and has recognized a loss of INR 0.1 billion, resulting from the said transfer on account of the movement of yields till July 15, 2013. If the transfer had not been affected, the treasury income during the second quarter would have been lower by INR 0.71 billion. Going forward, the treasury performance would depend on market developments, including the impact of the policy measures. I have already spoken about the trends in operating expenses and provisions while speaking about the 5Cs strategy. As a result of the above metrics, the bank's operating profit, excluding treasury, increased by 31.3% from INR 30.22 billion in Q2 of 2013 to INR 39.67 billion in Q2 of 2014. The bank's standalone profit before tax increased by 21.5% from INR 26.86 billion in Q2 of 2013 to INR 32.63 billion in Q2 of 2014. The bank's standalone profit after tax increased by 20.2% from INR 19.56 billion in Q2 of 2013 to INR 23.52 billion in Q2 of 2014. This translates into an annualized return on average assets of 1.7% for Q2 of 2014, compared to 1.54% for Q2 of 2013. The bank's capital adequacy as per RBI's guidelines on Basel III norms continues to remain strong at 16.5% overall capital adequacy ratio and 11.33% Tier 1 ratio at September 30, 2013, giving us the ability to grow our business further. In line with the applicable guidelines, the Basel III capital ratios reported by the bank for the quarter ended September 30 do not include the profits for the half-year ended September 30. Including the profits for H1, the capital adequacy ratio for the bank, as per Basel III norms, would have been 17.21% and the Tier 1 ratio would have been 12.04%. I now move on to the consolidated results. The profit after tax for the life insurance company in the second quarter was INR 3.87 billion as compared to INR 3.96 billion in Q2 of 2013. This level of net profits reflects an annualized rate of about 30% on the bank's invested capital. The year-on-year decrease in profits was due to a decline in renewal premiums, coupled with higher new business strain in Q2 of 2014 compared to Q2 of 2013. The decline in total premium was mainly on account of de-growth in the renewal premiums given the slowdown in business growth following September 2010. However, the company had seen a healthy growth in new business premiums on a year-on-year basis. The new business annualized premium equivalent for ICICI Life was INR 9.54 billion in Q2 of this year compared to INR 7.81 billion in Q2 of last year. The new business margin for Q2 2014 was 14.1%. During the quarter, the company has made changes to its products with the intent of smoothening the transition to the new product regime. Accordingly, this led to higher sales of ULIP products, which have relatively lower margins, with the proportion of ULIPs in the business mix increasing to about 60% levels in Q2 compared to about 53% levels previously. The retail weighted received premium for ICICI Life increased by 10.9% on a year-on-year basis during April to September 2013. While IRDA numbers for the industry are not available, we understand that the company has retained its market leadership among the private players. The profit after tax for the general insurance company in Q2 2014 was INR 1.56 billion as compared to INR 1.01 billion in Q2 of 2013 and INR 2.03 billion in Q1 of 2014. The profits were lower on a sequential basis primarily on account of lower investment income following the volatility in the markets during the quarter. The company maintained its leadership position in the private sector with overall market share of 9.5% during April to August 2013. Let me now move on to the performance of our overseas banking subsidiaries. As per IFRS financial, ICICI Bank Canada's profit after tax for the second quarter was CAD 12.9 million as compared to CAD 12.2 million for Q2 of 2013. The total assets for ICICI Bank Canada were CAD 5.27 billion at September 30, 2013, compared to CAD 5.23 billion at June 30, 2013. ICICI Bank Canada will continue to work towards further optimization of capital and selective portfolio growth in order to improve its profitability and return ratios. The capital adequacy ratio was healthy at 31.2% at September 30, 2013, compared to 31% at June 30, 2013. ICICI Bank U.K.'s total assets was USD 4.21 billion at September 30, 2013, compared to USD 3.75 billion at June 30, 2013. ICICI Bank U.K. is focusing selectively on lending opportunities to highly rated entities, including trade and transaction banking products and short-term loans to multinational corporations and subsidiaries of Indian companies in U.K. and Europe. The profit after tax for ICICI Bank U.K. for Q2 2014 was USD 6.1 million compared to USD 4.3 million for Q2 2013. The capital adequacy ratio was comfortable at 26.1% at September 30, 2013, compared to 26.6% at June 30, 2013. Let me now talk about the overall consolidated profits. The consolidated profits for the second quarter for this year increased by 12.9% to INR 26.98 billion compared to INR 23.9 billion in Q2 of 2013. The consolidated profit growth was lower on account of the impact of market volatility, primarily on the banks primary dealership subsidiary. The annualized consolidated return -- return on average equity was 14.6% for Q2 of 2014. Let me now come to our outlook for the full financial year 2014. Given that half the year has elapsed, we thought it appropriate to take stock of actual trends vis-a-vis our expectations and targets at the beginning of the year. Looking at the environment, while the turbulence in financial markets that we saw in July-August has substantially abated, overall, the economic outlook is more challenging than envisaged at the beginning of the year. Full year GDP growth is likely to be lower as compared to the expectations of a pickup. And the anticipated easing of monetary policy and consequent reduction in market rates has been impacted by inflationary concerns. Coming to ICICI Bank. On the loan growth front, retail loan growth trends are very robust, and we have achieved a 20% year-on-year loan growth at the end of the first half, which was our full year target. We have calibrated corporate loan growth substantially, reflecting the environment and our cautious approach to incremental lending. We expect sustainable credit growth for the banking system to be around 15% and would target to grow 2% to 3% higher than that level for us. Growth will continue to be driven by retail at around 22% to 23%. Growth in the loan portfolio of overseas branches will continue to be calibrated to conditions in the overseas funding markets. On the deposit side, the trends have been very strong, and we would target an increase in average CASA ratio of 39% to 40% as against 38% to 39% estimated earlier. So we are very hopeful of getting to 39% to 40% on an average level basis on CASA. Trends in margins have also been better than our original expectations. Aided by better margins in the overseas branches book and stability in domestic margins given the retail deposit franchise. Against our initial target of 10 basis-point improvement in the full year NIM over 3.11% level in financial year 2013, we believe that we can target around 20 basis-point expansion in NIM on a full year basis compared to last year. Fee income growth trends have also been better than our original expectation, with a growth for the first half at 12.8%. We would target a fee growth of around 14% to 15% for the full year. Treasury income has been volatile, reflecting market conditions, contrary to the general initial expectations of profit opportunities in treasury from declining yields. However, based on the current market conditions, we expect to recoup a significant part of the mark-to-market provisions taken in Q2. Other noninterest income trends have been strong, aided by continuing dividends streams from the subsidiaries. We expect this trend to sustain. The trend in the cost-to-income ratio has also been positive with the ratio at 38.4% in the first half. We would continue to target to contain this ratio at a level below 40%. Thus, we expect to improve on the core trends seen in the first half in the operating profit, and subject to mark-to-market -- sorry, subject to market conditions, improve the treasury performance relative to the second quarter. Given the economic scenario I mentioned earlier and issues of profitability challenges, longer working capital cycles and liquidity constraints faced by companies, corporate asset quality continues to be impacted across the system, particularly among medium and smaller companies. We had estimated provisions as a percentage of average loans of about 75 to 80 basis points for the full year. The first half experience has been around 82 basis points. During the first half, we have gross additions to NPL of about INR 23 billion. We currently expect a similar trend in the second half. With respect to restructured assets, we have seen gross additions to restructured loans of about INR 20 billion, and also currently have loans aggregating to about INR 20 billion, referred to CDR mechanism. Given the environment, the CDR pipeline is expected to increase, and we would also see some restructuring outside CDR, resulting in a higher amount of restructuring in the second half. While given the operating environment and the provisioning cost for this year may be higher than our initial estimates, we do not expect them to exceed 90 to 100 basis points of the average loans. In summary, we are seeing strong core operating trends: Loan growth driven by retail, healthy deposit growth, improved CASA average -- average CASA ratio, improving fee income growth and sustained cost efficiency. These healthy core operating trends would give us the ability to absorb the higher level of provisioning arising out of the credit cycle. Our growth continues to be supported by a capital position that is well above the regulatory norms. Before I end, I'm happy to say that, as you would have seen in the press release, my colleague, Rakesh Jha, has been designated as Chief Financial Officer. I'm sure all of you know him well and will join me in wishing him all the best. Rakesh has been the Deputy CFO since 2007 and has played a critical role in finance, planning and strategy for much longer. He's well qualified and deserving of this position. Rakesh will continue to report to me, and I'll also continue with my other existing responsibilities for risk management, corporate communications and branding, markets and commercial banking and day-to-day oversight of the compliance and internal audit functions, which report to the CEO and the audit committee. With this opening comments, my team and I will be happy to take your questions. Thank you.