N. S. Kannan
Analyst · Nikhil Rungta from Standard Chartered Securities
Yes, thank you. Good evening, and welcome to the conference call on the financial results of ICICI Bank for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, which is the first quarter of the current fiscal year 2014. As always, my remarks this evening would revolve around 4 key themes. First, on the macroeconomic and monetary environment, followed by our performance during the quarter, including the performance on our 5Cs strategy. Then, we move on to our consolidated results, and finally, the outlook for the full fiscal year 2014. Let me start with the first part on the macroeconomic and monetary environment during the first quarter. On the global front, growth forecasts by the IMF have been revised downwards across countries. While the economic conditions in the U.S. have been showing signs of recovery, indications from the U.S. Fed of possible withdrawal of quantitative easing have affected market sentiments. This resulted in volatility in capital flows, exchange rates, bond yields and equity market returns across several emerging economies including India. In the domestic economy, the government has taken several steps to revive investment activity, which augur well for an improvement in the long-term growth prospects of the country. These include approval for mechanism of coal supply to power producers, increase in gas prices, clearance of several projects by the Cabinet Committee of Investment and increase in the FDI limits in some key sectors. However, current economic activity continues to remain subdued. The growth in the Index of Industrial Production, IIP, remained weak, recording a growth of just 0.1% during April, May of 2013. Exports declined by 1.4%, while imports grew by 6% during the first quarter, resulting in a higher trade deficit of USD 51 billion in the first quarter compared to USD 45 billion in the previous quarter. Headline wholesale price-based inflation continued to remain below 5% at 4.9% in June 2013. There was consistent moderation in manufactured products inflation, which eased from 4.1% in March 2013 to 2.8% in June 2013. However, consumer price inflation remained at over 9% during Q1 of 2014. Given the volatility in global markets and domestic concerns, during Q1 of fiscal 2014, the rupee depreciated by 9.4% from INR 54.3 per U.S. dollar at the end of March 2013 to INR 59.4 per U.S. dollar at end June 2013. The depreciation was sharp in June 2013 when it breached the INR 60 per U.S. dollar mark. FII flows were volatile with net outflows of over $6 billion in June 2013 alone compared to inflows of a similar amount during April, May of 2013. Considering the above trends, the Reserve Bank of India put on hold its reduction and policy rates after the 25 basis point reduction in repo rate announced in May of 2013. On July 15, 2013, with a view to stabilizing the exchange rate, the RBI increased their Marginal Standing Facility rate to 10.25% and fixed the borrowing limit for banks under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility, or LAF, at INR 750 billion. The immediate impact of these measures on the market was a sharp increase in interest rates, particularly the short-term rates. Subsequently, on July 23, 2013, the Reserve Bank of India set the overall limit for LAF access by each individual bank at 0.5% of the bank's net demand and time liabilities effective July 24. In addition, effective July 27, the minimum daily cash reserve ratio balance required to be maintained by banks was increased to 99% of the stipulated fortnightly requirement from 70% earlier. In its monetary policy statement on July 30, RBI kept the policy rates unchanged, and has mentioned that the liquidity tightening measures would be rolled back in a calibrated manner once stability in the foreign exchange market is restored. Since July 15, that is the initiation of the first set of various measures by RBI, there has been over 200 basis points increase in the short-term rates, 100 basis point increase in the Gsec yields and 1% depreciation in the exchange rate. Credit offtake during the first quarter remained moderate. Non-food credit based scheduled commercial banks recorded at 13.9% increased year-on-year at June 28, 2013, compared to a growth of 16.1% at June 29 of 2012. Deposit growth continued to remain muted with the total deposits recording a growth of 13.8% year-on-year at June 28, 2013, compared to a growth of 13.5% at June 29, 2012. Demand deposits grew by 10.9% year-on-year while time deposits grew by 14.1% at June 28 of 2013. With this background, I now move to part 2 on the performance of the bank during the quarter. Let me begin with the progress on our 5Cs strategy. But first, with respect to credit growth, total advances of the bank increased by 12.3% on a year-on-year basis from INR 2.68 trillion at June 30, 2012, to INR 3.01 trillion at June 30, 2013. The growth in the domestic loan portfolio was higher at 14.1% on a year-on-year basis at June 30, 2013. The growth in advances was balanced across various loan segments. As I mentioned on the earlier results call, from March 31, 2013, we have revised the presentation of the domestic loan portfolio mix to better reflect the nature of the underlying loans. The disclosure of loan portfolio at June 30, 2013, is on a similar basis. For your convenience, we have included in the presentation data for June 30 of 2012 on the revised basis so that the figures are comparable. My subsequent discussions on our credit growth for the year is based on this new classification. I'm happy to report that the bank continues to see strong traction in its retail lending business. Mortgage and auto loans disbursements increased year-on-year by 36% and 17%, respectively, and the outstanding mortgage in auto loan portfolios grew by 20% and 21% on a year-on-year basis, respectively at June 30, 2013. Commercial business loans declined by 18.6% on a year-on-year basis at June 30, 2013, reflecting both a slowdown in this segment, as well as continued rundown of the bought-out portfolios in the segment. Coming to the unsecured credit card and personal loan portfolios, there was an increase of about 37% on a year-on-year basis. While the growth rate is high due to the low base, the outstanding unsecured credit card and personal loan portfolio at INR 48.69 billion at June 30, 2013, was only about 1.6% of the overall loan book. Based on the above trends in individual products, we saw a year-on-year growth of 26.6% in the organic retail portfolio excluding buyouts at June 30, 2013. On a total retail portfolio basis, including the impact of rundown of the earlier buyout portfolios, the growth was 12.6% on a year-on-year basis at June 30, 2013. With the rebasing of the buyout portfolio over the course of the year, we expect to see a strong growth in the total retail loan portfolio, including buyouts, on a full year basis. The growth in the corporate and international portfolio was 14.1% on a year-on-year basis. Growth in the domestic corporate portfolio has moderated from about 30% year-on-year at March 31, 2013, to 20% year-on-year at June 30, 2013, in line with the expectations. Net advances of the overseas branches increased by 7.6% on a year-on-year basis in rupee terms, primarily due to the movement on -- in the exchange rate. In dollar terms, the net advances of the overseas branches remained stable on a sequential and year-on-year basis at June 30, 2013. Moving on to the second C, on CASA deposits. Reflecting our strong retail franchise, the bank saw an additional INR 32.02 billion in its savings deposits during the first quarter. The bank was able to maintain the current account deposits at a stable level at June 30, 2013, as compared to March 31, 2013. As a result, the CASA ratio for the bank improved from 41.9% in March to 43.2% at June 30, 2013. The average CASA ratio improved from 38.1% in the previous quarter to 39% in the first quarter. On the third C, on Cost, for the first quarter, operating expenses including DMA expenses were higher by 17.3% on a year-on-year basis. The bank's cost-to-income ratio declined to 39.4% in the first quarter of fiscal 2014 compared to 41.8% in the first quarter of fiscal 2013. Let me move on to the fourth C, on credit quality. The bank's asset quality trends continue to be broadly in line with expectations. During the first quarter, the bank saw gross additional INR 11 billion to its overall gross NPAs, primarily driven by slippages in the SME and the midsized corporate loan portfolio. Recoveries in the first quarter were INR 3.1 billion resulting in a net addition to gross NPA of INR 8 billion. The bank also wrote off INR 3.96 billion of NPAs during Q1. The net NPA ratio was marginally higher at 69 basis points at June 30, 2013, compared to 64 basis points at March 31, 2013. During the quarter, the bank restructured INR 8.32 billion of loans similar to the levels seen in the previous quarter. After taking into account deletions and the required specific provisioning, the net restructured loans for the bank increased to INR 59.15 billion at June 30, 2013, compared to INR 53.15 billion at March 31, 2013. The bank has a pipeline of about INR 10 billion to INR 11 billion of loans referred to CDR mechanism. In addition, the bank may also undertake some bilateral restructurings. Provision for Q1 of 2014 were at INR 5.93 billion as compared to INR 4.66 billion in Q1 of 2013 and INR 4.61 billion in the previous quarter. In Q1 2014, the bank has made specific provisions of about INR 2 billion at rates higher than the minimum percentages prescribed by RBI guidelines against certain NPAs in the corporate and SME portfolios. The provisions also reflect the impact of higher general provisioning requirements on restructured loans, as per RBI guidelines. As a result, credit costs, as a percentage of average advances, was at 82 basis points on an annualized basis for Q1 of 2014. The provisioning coverage ratio on nonperforming loans continues to remain healthy at 75.4% at June 30, 2013. Now to the fifth C on customer centricity. The bank continues to focus on enhancing its customer service capability and leveraging on its increased branch network to cater to the customer base. During the quarter, we added 250 branches and 421 ATMs to the network. With this, we have a branch network of 3,350 branches and 10,902 ATMs at June 30, 2013. The bank also continues to strengthen its technology channels for increasing customer convenience. During the quarter, the bank launched Money2India mobile app to help nonresident Indians track their money transfers to India. Money2India.com currently has over 1 million registered users and is a popular online money transfer tracking service offered to nonresident Indians by the bank for over a decade. The bank's Facebook initiative continues to be appreciated by customers with about 2.3 million fans. ICICI Bank continues to have the largest fan base on Facebook among the Indian banks. Having talked about the progress on 5Cs, let me move on to the key financial performance highlights for the quarter. Net interest income increased by 19.6% year-on-year from INR 31.93 billion in Q1 of 2013 to INR 38.2 billion in Q1 of 2014. The bank saw a year-on-year improvement of 26 basis points in the net interest margin from 3.01% in Q1 2013 to 3.27% in Q1 2014. The domestic net interest margin was 3.63% in Q1 2014 as compared to 3.51% for the full fiscal year 2013. In line with our expectations, we've seen an improvement in the international business margins from 1.34% for the full fiscal 2013 to 1.6% in Q1 of 2014. Total non-interest income increased by 32.1% from INR 18.8 [ph] billion in Q1 2013 to INR 24.84 billion in Q1 2014. During the quarter, treasury recorded a profit of INR 4.03 billion compared to a loss of INR 0.21 billion in the corresponding quarter last year. The profit -- the treasury made in the previous quarter was INR 0.93 billion. The profit in Q1 2014 in the treasury business was primarily on account of realized gains in the fixed income portfolio. Going forward, the treasury performance would depend on market developments, including impact of these policy measures we've talked about earlier. Other income was INR 2.89 billion in Q1 2014 compared to INR 2.54 billion in Q1 2013, primarily driven by the dividends on the subsidiary companies. We have seen an improvement in fee income growth from about 3% for the full year financial year 2013 to 8.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q1 2014. This improvement in fee income growth was primarily driven by growth in the retail banking fees. I've already spoken about trends in operating expenses and provisions while speaking about the 5Cs strategy. The bank's standalone profit after tax increased by 25.3% from INR 18.15 billion in Q1 2013 to INR 22.74 billion in Q1 2014. This translates into an annualized return on average assets of 1.75% for Q1 2014 compared to 1.51% for Q1 2013. The bank's capital adequacy at June 30, 2013, as per Reserve Bank of India guidelines on Basel III norms, continued to remain strong at overall capital adequacy ratio of 17.04% and Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.72%, giving us the ability to grow our business further. In line with the applicable guidelines, the Basel III capital ratios reported by the bank for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, do not include the profits for the quarter. On a comparable basis, the total capital adequacy ratio as per Basel III norms would have been 18.35% and Tier 1 capital adequacy would have been 12.48%. Including the profits for the first quarter, the capital adequacy ratio for the bank as per Basel III norms would have been 17.39% and the Tier 1 ratio would have been 12.07%. On a consolidated basis, the Basel III Tier 1 ratio would be higher by about 25 basis points and the overall capital adequacy ratio would be higher by about 90 basis points since on a consolidated basis, only the equity investment and insurance subsidiaries is deducted from the capital. I will now move on to the consolidated numbers. The profit after tax for the life insurance company in Q1 2014 was INR 3.64 billion as compared to INR 3.49 billion in Q1 2013. The Q4 2013 level of net profits reflects an annualized return of about 30% on the bank's invested capital in the subsidiaries. The new business annualized premium equivalent, APE, for ICICI Life was INR 5.41 billion in Q1 2014 compared to INR 5.7 billion in Q1 2013. The new business margin for the quarter was 15%. The retail weighted received premium for ICICI Life decreased by 9.4% during April-June 2013 compared to a 28% year-on-year decrease for the industry. During April to June 2013, ICICI Life maintained its market leadership in the private sector with an industry market share of 6.6% on the basis of retail weighted received premiums. The profit after tax for the general insurance company in Q1 2014 was INR 2.03 billion as compared to INR 0.83 billion in Q1 2013. The company maintained its leadership position in the private sector with overall market share of 9.4% during April to June 2013. Let me now move on to the performance of our overseas banking subsidiaries. As per IFRS financials, ICICI Bank Canada's profit after tax for Q1 2014 was CAD 14.4 million as compared to CAD 11.9 million for Q1 2013. Total assets for ICICI Bank Canada were CAD 5.23 billion at June 30, 2013, compared to CAD 5.37 billion at March 31, 2013. The capital adequacy ratio was healthy at 31% at June 30, 2013 compared to 33.2% at March 2013. ICICI Bank U.K.'s total assets were USD 3.75 billion at June 30, 2013 compared to USD 3.59 billion at March 31, 2013. The profit after tax for ICICI Bank U.K. for Q1 was USD 5.4 million compared to USD 4.4 million in the corresponding quarter last year. The capital adequacy ratio was 26.6% at June 30, 2013, compared to 30.8% at March 31, 2013. In line with the objective of rationalizing the capital invested in overseas banking subsidiaries, we received capital repatriation of USD 100 million from ICICI Bank U.K., including redemption of USD 50 million of preference capital in Q4 of 2013. During Q1 2014, ICICI Bank U.K. has also called back USD 50 million of tier 2 capital bonds. Further, ICICI Bank Canada has repatriated CAD 75 million of equity capital to the bank during Q1 2014. Going forward, we will continue to focus on rationalizing the capital invested in the overseas banking subsidiaries. Let me now talk about the overall consolidated profits. The consolidated profits for Q1 2014 increased by 32.3% to INR 27.47 billion compared to INR 20.77 billion in Q1 of 2013. This level of profits reflects an annualized consolidated return on average equity of 15.6% for Q1 2014 compared to 13.3% for Q1 2013. I would now like to talk about our outlook for fiscal 2014. As I had mentioned earlier, there has been continued moderation in economic growth, along with increased volatility in the financial markets. At the same time, several changes on the regulatory front are underway. Our outlook for fiscal 2014 is in this overall context. With respect of the loan growth, we will continue to target domestic loan growth at 2 to 3 percentage points higher than the system growth, with higher growth in the reported retail portfolio of about 18% to 20%. The growth in our international book in our overseas branches will of course depend on the conditions in the global financial markets. Given the current growth trends in demand deposits in the system, our target would continue to be to maintain the average CASA ratio at 38% to 39% for fiscal 2014. We continue to target an improvement of about 10 basis points in the overall net interest margin on a full year basis, as we had indicated earlier. Given by the growth in the retail fee segment, we continue to target an improvement in fee income growth to double-digit percentage in -- fiscal 2014. For financial year 2014, our endeavor would be to contain the cost-to-income ratio to about 40%. While the asset quality trends continue to be challenging for the system as a whole and we would expect additions to NPLs and restructured assets to continue, for the full year fiscal 2014, we continue to target provisions of about 75 basis points of average loans, as we have indicated earlier. So in conclusion, I would like to say the during the quarter, we made progress on our stated objectives, achieved healthy operating parameters in the context of a challenging operating environment, including significantly enhancing our deposit franchise. Our retail franchise has seen good growth with respect to both the liability and the asset franchises. We have also seen the first steps in rationalization of capital at our overseas banking subsidiaries. We continue to make progress in improving our profitability metrics, such as margins, fee income growth and operating expenses. So with these opening comments, my team and I will be happy to take your questions. Thank you.