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Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 7, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Hertz Global Holdings Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Currently, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following managements commentary we will conduct a question and answer session. I would like to remind you that this morning's call is being recorded by the company. I would now like to turn the call over to our host, Johann Rawlinson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Johann Rawlinson

Management

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. By now, you should have our earnings press release and associated financial information. We've also provided slides to accompany our conference call, which can be accessed on our website. I want to remind you that certain statements made on this call contain forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance, and by their nature, are subject to inherent uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially. Any forward-looking information relayed on this call speaks only as of today's date, and the company undertakes no obligation to update that information to reflect changed circumstances. Additional information concerning these statements is contained in our earnings press release and in the Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements section of our 2022 Form 10-K filed with the SEC. All these documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the Hertz website. Today, we'll use certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled with GAAP numbers in our earnings press release available on our website. We believe that these non-GAAP measures provide additional information about our operations, allowing better evaluation of our profitability and performance. On the call this morning, we have Stephen Scherr, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kenny Cheung, our Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Stephen.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Thank you, Johann. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. On the close of my first fiscal year at Hertz, I'm very pleased to report on a strong quarter and a record year for the company. Our Q4 results reflect progress made during the year on our growth initiatives, increased efficiency in our operations, strong fleet management and our commitment to prudent capital allocation in all 2022 was about focusing on our service offering and reinforcing the talent at Hertz to deliver for customers and shareholders. As we open 2023, we continue to experience strength in the business with January and the first week of February, closing strong. Our performance in 2022 and this early indication into Q1 leaves me confident in the sustainability of our financial performance the prospect of long-term value creation and the ability of Hertz to deliver a superior product to our customers on a more efficient cost base. Our strong performance also lends confidence to the forward execution on growth initiatives, including expanding our rideshare business, growing our EV platform and revitalizing the Dollar and Thrifty brands. With that, let me begin with the results for Q4. Revenue in the quarter was $2 billion, up 4% year-over-year. Revenue per day and revenue per unit remained strong with both up year-over-year, 3% and 4%, respectively. Transaction days were up 3% year-over-year reflecting stronger performance than seasonally expected. Importantly, core operating expenses per transaction date in Q4 were down 5% sequentially versus Q3, reflecting increasing operating leverage in the business as signalled on our Q3 call. Hertz produced adjusted corporate EBITDA of $309 million in the quarter, resulting in a margin of 15%, and with adjusted free cash flow at $424 million. Our results were the product of continued stability in rate and higher…

Kenny Cheung

Management

Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. As Stephen noted, we had a solid fourth quarter and a record full year. Fourth quarter revenue was up in both the Americas and International segments and totaled over $2 billion, an increase of 4% year-over-year or 7% on a constant currency basis. RPD, RPU and 21:33days for both segments improved year-over-year. Both rate and volume met our expectations for the quarter, as we laid out on our last call, and I'll reiterate that the volume performance was 500 bps better than seasonality typically yield. Utilization increased 100 bps year-over-year despite severe air travel disruptions in the U.S. at year-end. Domestic leisure volumes across the industry have made progress towards pre-pandemic levels within our business, and we see steady improvement in corporate volumes. International inbound have been slower to recover but hold considerable promise for us. As of the fourth quarter in the Americas, corporate was at about 80% of 2019 levels and international inbound grew to about 50%, up from 45% in Q3. As international inbound continues to be covered, we expect it will prove accretive to RPU, utilization and margins. Adjusted corporate EBITDA was $309 million in the fourth quarter, a margin of 15%, growth in corporate and rideshare were large contributors with continued strength in leisure. Geographically, we saw strong performance across all markets. For the full year, revenue was $8.7 billion, an 18% increase from 2021. On a constant currency basis, revenue increased 23% year-over-year with strong increases in RPD, RPU and days across both the Americas and International segments. Adjusted corporate EBITDA for the full year was a record $2.3 billion, a margin of 27%, with both the Americas and our International business at record levels. Our focus on higher-yielding business, a dynamic fleet strategy and a focus…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Chris Woronka

Analyst

Stephen, sort of the high level, and you've been in the CEO seat for, I guess, about a year now. I mean, can you share any of the insights you've gained during the period and some of the key learnings and maybe what gives you confidence in the future of this business and the comment about being able to hold double-digit margins?

Stephen Scherr

Management

I would say that if one looks back on 2022, I would say that it will prove to be a down payment, if you will, on the forward for the company in '23 and beyond. I mean we took the large as free cash flow over the course of the year and brought down our equity base by a third. But equally, we took opportunities to invest in fleet and non-fleet CapEx that I think will have lasting benefit to the company, both in terms of its operational fidelity, but equally kind of the growth opportunities that are there. If I look back on the year, I would say -- I would just make a couple of observations on the business, and then I'll give you a sense of kind of where that leaves me in terms of optimism on the forward. First of all, the performance of the business has improved. And I think we're now running a quality of business that's more befitting of the Hertz brand. Second, I think we have changed the mindset across the whole of the company to a true adherence to an ROA sort of mindset. That is we now manage and understand the business across the whole of the company based on financial return, which I think is important. It's not to the exclusion of a view on the customer. But I think we just hone tighter and more efficient in how we manage fleet and otherwise. Third, I would say we brought better human capital to the game. So Hertz is going to be better by virtue of a new group of executives that we brought on to run it. And that combined with the tenure of people that we have in the field and organizational changes we've made in the…

Chris Woronka

Analyst

I guess as a follow-up, obviously, a lot of headlines recently around price cuts on EVs, particularly Tesla. And I think there's just some general curiosity in the market about how that impacts Hertz both puts and takes, right, on the purchase and resale side. Is there any way to kind of walk through that and give us a little bit of color of how you guys are thinking about it?

Stephen Scherr

Management

Sure. Why don't I start, and then I'll hand it to Kenny to give you sort of more particulars. But look, first of all, as Kenny said, we benefited from price declines in electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. And so we've moved in that direction. I think it's important to also know that we bought now, call it, 20%, 25% of that, which we expect in terms of an overall EV fleet that by 2024 will be a quarter of our fleet. And so as prices come down on electric vehicles, we'll buy 80% of what we want at a lower price point because as we said in the prepared remarks, cap cost is the first ingredient to depreciation on these cars. I think it's also important to understand that in terms of EVs, we rode these up and then down, meaning we started early, bought them at a low price. Obviously, we paid higher as the market did, but then paid lower. So you need to look at kind of overall average cost that's there. And the last thing I would say, and this will play into depreciation as it being an output, not an input, but we have said on various calls that we expect the length of keep around EVs to become longer over time and longer even still to where we sit today. The nature of those cars, the experience of those cars, the ability to re-kit the interior will give us kind of a length of keep well in excess of where we are. And that evolve in terms of the overall depreciation cost of these cars on an annual basis. But let me turn to Kenny for a little bit.

Kenny Cheung

Management

Yes. Chris, it's Kenny. So let me give a bit more color on what Stephen talked about in terms of depreciation. And then maybe I'll talk a bit about the ABS as well, Chris, to your question. So depreciation, right, I think it's important to note that we don't do a mark-to-market on our vehicles, right? So instead, appreciation is a function of other variables. For example, cap costs, right? In this case, cap costs, the price is coming down, cap cost is lower, lower depreciation, right? The second piece, which Stephen pointed out, which is more relevant to a Tesla is expect the residual value over the whole period, right? With EVs, this is particularly important given their ability to operate for longer. And longer hope here will reduce the impact of residual changes on depreciation. On the pricing side, keep in mind that we did average in tests across the year. So we -- so our blended cost for Tesla is reduced by the early purchases and the most recent ones that we bought in Q4. In terms of the fleet size, I mean, Tesla right now is roughly, call it, less than 10% of our total fleet. So the impact on depreciation is a bit minimized. And the last thing I would say is that all else being equal, a lower cap cost will further enhance the economics of EVs, which is proving to be accretive to our business. Quickly on ABS, Chris, we do bring in the test laws into the ABS at a, what I call a haircut, right, let's call it 5% haircuts. On day one, there is equity to be had. You're in the money on day one. The second piece is subsequently, every month, the Teslas faster in the ABS than the economic death rate, which also provides cushion. So as you can imagine, we look at the pool of cars as a whole, not by maker model. And right now, as I mentioned on the call, we have sufficient cushion entering 2023.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer.

Ian Zaffino

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Great color on the comments on depreciation, maybe not tracking rates. Can you give us maybe a little bit more color? What is per se giving you confidence there? And then also, how does that then figure into your normalized EBITDA target and how you're thinking about that?

Stephen Scherr

Management

Well, I think -- listen, it's important to understand depreciation is not kind of a fixed element, meaning it's influenced by a number of decisions and factors that we make all with an eye toward the ROA or the margin of the overall business. And so I'll just make a couple of comments. First of all, while we're attentive to what customers want, as and to the extent that rate is not being differentiated as between a brand-new car versus a good condition, low mileage used car, we're going to run with lower cap costs, lower-cost cars, okay? And we look at the totality of what the cost of that vehicle is in terms of making those decisions. So I think that we're in a place where, as we think about financial performance, whether it's EBITDA down through cash flow, depreciation is but one element, and we have quite a number of levers to control in the context of it based on what we buy, the length of keep for the vehicle Obviously, as we engage in growth around P&C and Dollar Thrifty, those are going to be two kind of business repositories where older cars are going to go therefore, playing to sort of higher margin and lower depreciation. All of those are factors that influence depreciation. But again, depreciation is but one piece of an overall puzzle and it itself is an output of some very clear decisions we make around the return profile, looking at cap cost, maintenance expense and overall economic return for the car itself.

Kenny Cheung

Management

Just to give more color, Ian, on depreciation. So if you look at Q4, right, as I mentioned, net DPU was $244. If you bifurcate between gross and gains on sale, gross was roughly $346 million, and then the gains on sale per vehicle was $102 that's how you get to the, call it, the $2.44. As you look outwards, right, I've talked about we expect in the range of $300 to $320 for the rest of the year, right? So growth appreciation for the most part, faced similar, right? Let's call it $350 for rounding standpoint. The gains on sale, right, we had $100 in Q4, high-low math, let's say that's $50 now. So that $350 minus $50 gets you to $300 for the rest of the year. And that's how we think about it.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Yes. The one thing I would say, though, is that we've taken a rather conservative approach to sort of what we believe price decline will be over the course of the year. And I think we said in our remarks that we're more conservative than where the indices or the market is forecasting. And so that obviously plays into the view we have on the forward and we will adjust. So we're taking expense down. I think in the last five weeks, we've seen a correction to use car prices to our benefit, not to our detriment. And therefore, gain on sale may improve over the course of the year to the extent that we see that sort of continue on. And to the extent that the worst of used car decline is behind us. But I think we're taking a prudent and conservative approach to this and have a number of levers to sort of offset where depreciation will be, no less what depreciation will be as we play forward.

Kenny Cheung

Management

Yes, the way the years of the good start have you awake our on cars selling prices gone up every week.

Ian Zaffino

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

And then may can you just touch upon on the corporate side. Maybe also international inbound. How is that progressing assortment February? Where February looks like? You know I have been negotiating some of the contract some of the corporate side. How’s that going? And what should we expect on that front.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Sure. So let me take them in that order. First of all, the inbound business, which is a very profitable business for us, okay, has been up quite considerably. In fact, the momentum we're seeing carrying into this first quarter, if you just look at the month of January, international inbound was up 56% year-over-year. So comparing January as against January. And that business continues to sort of play very strong. In fact, it played strong even through year-end when, in fact, foreign exchange would have suggested otherwise. So it just suggests to you the strength of demand of travel by non-U.S. customers who are coming to the United States. So very strong, and the momentum is carrying forward into January kind of as an early indicator on where we are on the year. In terms of the corporate business, I would say that January equally sort of told you of the continuation in demand. Demand was up 28% over January, again, with corporate demand coming back now closer to where we saw it. Importantly, I would tell you that if you look at contract renewals, and I made a comment to this in the prepared remarks, we're seeing near 100% contract renewal on our corporates importantly, they're getting renegotiated at higher prices. Obviously, corporates are focused on EVs as an alternative to put their employees in to satisfy their own ESG commitment, but the corporate business is feeling quite good, very strong. I'd also make one other comment to you, which is not just simply about corporate nor about inbound, but about the totality of travel, which is this last Sunday, if you look at TSA figures, they processed on Sunday about 1.7 million travelers across the United States. What's interesting is that if you look at the 4 prior Sundays, they were all consistent in at about 1.2 million. Now one week doesn't make a trend, but steady at 1.2 and then a jump to 1.7, and you just listened to what you hear from the airlines and hotels let alone what we're telling you about our own business. And it seems that travel has been pacing well. One last point on corporate, I would raise with you, and that is if you look at the pattern of corporate demand, it too is changing for the better for us, meaning, over the course of 2022, we saw an increase by about 20% for about 1.5 days to the duration of a corporate rental. That means that people are keeping that car longer. The way in which that's manifesting itself as a person is on a business trip, they may extend by a day and then extend by two more days to keep a weekend in sort of the combination of both leisure and business that as days, by definition, to the rental, and that's been quite beneficial to us in terms of overall activity.

Kenny Cheung

Management

Just one point to add. International inbounds, when they come back and Stephen pointed out, they'll be buying VAS and they're very profitable to our business. But right now, despite even, what I would say, softness on international inbound, versus '19, we are seeing VAS of double digit, right? So structurally, our improved VAS program is definitely working. And in corporate, even though we are seeing very, very strong renewals on -- with the economics. The rates on the corporate are lower than RAC, but it is RPU-accretive because they come in midweek and helps with utilization.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Healy with Northcoast Research.

John Healy

Analyst · Northcoast Research.

Stephen, why don't you just to touch a little bit about free cash flow. I was hoping you could give us some guardrails to maybe think about that in 2023. Obviously, I know you're not giving formal guidance on it, but would just love to think about kind of non-fleet CapEx, just corporate CapEx. Anything related to cash maybe going into the funding facilities. It sounds like you have ample equity already in there. But just maybe some guardrails to think about that for this year.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Sure. Listen, I just -- I think to give you a context, obviously, the magnitude of gain on sale that we saw at very elevated prices in the early part of 2022, is unlikely to repeat itself. And so the task in front of us is to replace, right, lost EBITDA and, therefore, lost free cash flow that was attributable to gain on sale, order of magnitude with fundamental performance in the business. And I think what you're hearing from us is we believe we will see better on volume, better on rate we'll see that sort of play out throughout the year. We're seeing continued growth, as we've just spoken about across all channels. We're going to start to execute on the growth elements of the business to generate EBITDA and free cash flow, whether that's in margin-accretive activity around the rideshare business or what we do around Dollar Thrifty as we get back to the back half of the year, all of that will be a benefit and considerable offset to what we see decline in terms of gain. Now it's hard to read and extrapolate off of the first, call it, five weeks of the year. But in the first five weeks, you heard Kenny say we've seen a reversal of the direction that residual prices were taking. And therefore, that carries the potential upside to preserve gain on sale, certainly not at the levels that we saw last year but as an offset to perhaps what we thought we might realize over '23 as we were ending '22. So again, that's going to play to sort of overall sort of free cash flow dynamics that are there. I would say there's nothing that we see to siphon free cash flow into the ABS facility. Of course,…

John Healy

Analyst · Northcoast Research.

And I thought I had to ask this question because it's come up a few times in your prepared remarks, the ROA comment. Is there a way to think about an ROA level that you view as acceptable or that you've kind of tasked the team with trying to achieve maybe in the near term and maybe over the long term?

Stephen Scherr

Management

Well, I think -- I mean, listen, you want to be -- the way I would say it is, it's all relative to sort of the competing uses of cash in the business, okay? So we're going to look for a return on the invested dollar in fleet as measured against what we see in terms of the return profile of nonfleet CapEx to the business and equally what we see in the context of share repurchase. They're all valid uses of capital and we need to make relative judgments, not absolute judgments in terms of where we deploy do. And if the return on the fleet is going to pay handsomely relative to other uses, we'll put it there. If there is long-term value to the return profile of a Dollar into nonfleet CapEx, obviously, we're going to look at that. So capital allocation is going to be subject to great rigor, and I'd hate to put a particular number down and say we need it or not. It's all a relative judgment. And obviously, long term, our desire is to keep a very high sort of pull through to free cash flow right, from the EBITDA number. And on a steady-state basis, I'd like that number to continue to be 70% or thereabout in terms of just the efficiency and the pull-through of EBITDA in through free cash flow. That doesn't mean it's going to happen every quarter or it happen every year, but I think you should view that as the target that we want to operate to and the relative sort of outlay and allocation of free cash flow will be subject to the rigors of return.

Kenny Cheung

Management

Yes. And just to build on that one. In a steady state, John, right, if you just think the free cash flow build, right, you have EBITDA to operating cash flow, that's 90%, which proved to be correct this year. And then you also have in a steady state, you would have the fleet size, cap costs, et cetera, would be somewhat steady. So nonfleet growth will be minimal in that equation. So -- and then, call it, not CapEx, call it, close to historical levels. Is that how you walk to the 70% of conversion from EBITDA.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

Adam Jonas

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Well, for Steve and Kenny, thanks for all the details, and it really does help us model and helps manage expectations, so well done for that. But the one thing you left out is on fleet interest expense outlook, $159 million last year, it's down about 45% year-on-year and well down $400 million from a few years ago pre-COVID. Now I know things have changed. But as your hedges roll and you see a step-up in funding costs from the ABS market, what should we be thinking about on fleet interest costs for 2023? And then I have a follow-up.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Sure. So I'll have Kenny give you sort of some precision around the numbers, but the hedges that we have in there, Adam, are going to roll on the forward. We're obviously watching and managing them. These are not new to me just given what I did before. And so they've proven to be very valuable to us in locking in sort of the cost function of the interest expense. Kenny, maybe you want to speak to sort of the numbers themselves.

Kenny Cheung

Management

Yes. So if you think about our structure on the debt stack, right? So roughly 75% of our costs are fixed base, right? And then most of majority -- the majority of our costs are on the ABS side. And roughly 80% of that is fixed as well. Last year, our blended cost was roughly 2.5% is very effective from a cost borrowing standpoint. Entering this year, we expect this number to be roughly around 3% to 3.5%, Adam, for -- on the EPS side. As Stephen mentioned, we have hedges in place. So for example, roughly 40% of the ABS is variable funding notes we are contractually to have caps in place on those. And right now, they're currently in the money as we speak. And we sell this going through the P&L in Q4.

Adam Jonas

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Just to clarify that before my follow-up, you're saying 3% to 3.5% of the ABS side, but with hedges in place, that are in the money, you might have up better than that. We should be thinking that, that could be even better than that in terms on fleet interest?

Kenny Cheung

Management

Yes. 3% to 3.5% with caps. Yes, 3% to 3.5% gross.

Adam Jonas

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

And just, Steve, your point on using conservative and prudent assumptions. I think you made that point many times. I didn't know if there was any way you could tell us what your assumptions are on Manheim throughout the year or a range of that? Presumably, it's further declined, but I didn't know what we should be thinking of in there because you're still allowing for $50 per unit of gain on sale. I don't recall how normal that is to have that order of magnitude gain on sale. But any color there without holding it to a specific index our -- of course, of course.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Sure. Yes, of course, of course. I would say the following. As you would expect, we model, particularly around the ABS facility on a very conservative basis because I don't want a surprise. And so I want to understand what the risk is to us having to put equity into the ABS facility under a variety of sort of scenarios. And so we model to an annual decline in residual pricing that's probably a couple of hundred basis points wide of what the indices sort of publicly report, okay? Now those vary, and they depend on which segment of the fleet population you look at but I think we model on a conservative basis. And then I look at kind of standard deviation movement to price to sort of understand what's our risk level and tolerance against those very conservative assumptions we believe that there's no scenario as we look forward, whereby we're going to be required to sort of put money into the ABS. Now anything can change, but I think we take a fairly conservative set of assumptions. Now carry that assumption about residual price decline in '23. And I would say that we are on the conservative side, again, carrying that over from the ABS analysis into what we think gain on sale will be. And so I think that we look at what's playing out over the last five weeks. We look at what we're harvesting in terms of the increasing utilization of Carvana and our own proprietary channel, where we capture 5% to 7% premium to what we get in the wholesale market, take all of that together, and I'm still quite optimistic about the ability to harvest fairly have some gain on sale. It won't be what it was at the top of 2022, but there's enough in there, right, to offset gross depreciation. So that's a little bit of the narrative, Adam, in terms of how we think about residual decline relative to the market, primarily for ABS, but then carrying it over to sort of sort out what we think expected gain on sale will be, again, both through wholesale and again, an increasing use of premium channels.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

Ryan Brinkman

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I heard in the prepared remarks that like in 2022, you expect to be agile in '23 in allocating capital between capital spending, share repurchases and other initiatives. First, maybe just other initiatives, what is this? This is spending apart from CapEx? Is it acquisition? What are the other initiatives? And then what are the current priorities in that hierarchy for capital spending? And then what would you say are like the major factors that would cause you to allocate capital differently to remain agile as 2023 plays out in your share price, interest rates, travel trends? Or what should we be thinking about?

Stephen Scherr

Management

Well, I think the truth is you listed them all out. I mean the fact is that capital allocation sort of comes in what I would describe as sort of three categories, okay? We look at fleet, we look at non-fleet and we look at the opportunity to engage in share repurchase, okay? And we probably look at them in that order with the ability to sort of play in all three, okay? We've talked a lot about fleet and how we think about it. We maintain a level of control around fleet relative to demand, and we're looking to sort of optimize the return on that in terms of the amount of money that we put against it, okay? On non-fleet, we will continue to invest in the fundamental sort of foundational elements of the company so that we can execute effectively in our core business and around growth initiatives. It means technology, it means human capital. It means putting tools in the hands of our employees -- and all of that equally is accretive to us the way in which the business is run and then we look at where share repurchase otherwise sits. When I speak about other initiatives, there are small immaterial opportunities for us, for example, to look at certain franchises that were sold, okay, during bankruptcy, which I think in the better light of day, we sooner own than have as a franchise. These are mostly U.S.-based opportunities. And the ability to potentially buy in one or two of those. Again, I want to be crystal clear. These are immaterial. They are very small. They'd be in the category of bolt-on acquisitions, but they would prove to be accretive to sort of the performance of the company overall. We will look at those as and when they present themselves, but that won't be realized from kind of what we're looking at in terms of fleet and non-fleet and again, what we do in terms of share repurchase itself.

Ryan Brinkman

Analyst · JPMorgan.

And then just last one for me. What is the very latest in terms of what you're thinking in terms of the implications of the inflation Reduction Act on commercial EV purchases and the potential impact to Hertz.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Well, I think we're still in a mind that, again, separate out what the provisions that were for individuals, okay, as opposed to provisions that were guided towards us because they were two separate pieces of the legislation. As it relates to us, we still view ourselves as being in a position to benefit from the tax credits. There's still sort of elements of that and rulemaking that will need to go on, the devil will inevitably be in the detail, but we view that benefit as being consequential to us on forward EV purchases. There have been some changes on the individual sort of purchase side where classifications of certain cars have opened up and the like. But as it relates to Hertz proper were of no different view about the benefit of that tax credit that will play to us in the forward sort of acquisition of EVs.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Stathoulopoulos with SIG.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Analyst · SIG.

Stephen, could you elaborate on your comments around the sharp reversal in price declines of used vehicles in your prepared comments. I know you subsequently touched on that, but any more color there, the drivers, your view of the current market and your thoughts on that into the spring? And then I have a follow-up.

Stephen Scherr

Management

Yes, of course. So in -- I want to say, in each of the last four or five weeks, we have seen a tick up in the residual value of cars as computed by Manheim and other indices, okay? It's important to recognize that there's a general pool of cars that they look at and then there is a fleet view, which is obviously more relevant to us. Both have been up, but we obviously watch sort of where we are. And that has been obviously beneficial in the context of how we think about the overall performance of the company and what we think we can do in terms of the movement of cars and gain that we can capture as against that. As for the factors that are guiding it, I would say that new cars remain elevated in price and at a premium in terms of availability. And I think that coming out of kind of a trough period for purchase I think people who are in need of cars are coming to the recognition that a new car, if available, is still at an elevated price point and they're otherwise coming back to the used car market as a source for buying a car. And so I think this is a little bit of the dynamic as to where the OEMs are forecasting sort of opportunities, the price that they're holding and what that means in terms of people coming back into the used car market as a source of a vehicle for them to buy. But it's been fairly consistent in the context of the first four or five weeks of the year.

Kenny Cheung

Management

Yes. I'll add two things. I think not only have we seen the week-over-week increases, as Stephen mentioned, we're -- we also see retention. They're actually holding those prices as well, which bodes well for future indication. And then we're also coming up spring break in March, April time frame, which is seasonality, one of the strongest moments for used car sales.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Analyst · SIG.

And my follow-up. So I'm curious, -- as it relates to the airlines, obviously, the airport business, given the challenge the airlines have been having and will likely continue to have with respect to capacity and their ability to handle harsh weather versus what's been an ongoing momentum in demand recovery. Is that dynamic at all reflected in your outlook? I know that you spoke to some pressure on the top line and perhaps some costs, I believe it was with the BOM cycle in December. And this sort of this dynamic persists. Is that contemplated and how you're thinking about the guidance or your business going forward?

Stephen Scherr

Management

Yes. Well, I think the reference we made and that you just made now, just sort of Christmas, I think, is pretty telling in that what we would have lost because you obviously experienced cancellations to the extent that there are airline cancellations as a customer doesn't arrive, we saw a meaningful pickup in one-way rentals, as I had mentioned. And those come kind of with the benefit of being at a higher rate. And then equally, they repositioned cars from areas where we need them less to where we need them more and to avoid spending a couple of thousand dollars on the transportation of a car, that's a benefit. And so there's a wash, if not a positive benefit to that, not that we wish the circumstances that played out in Christmas to happen, but I think we are positioned to be able to respond to it. Now the way we respond to it is a little bit of a function of what I said in response to the question earlier about the business performing better. We have a better insight into pricing. We have a better insight into how we manage the fleet. All of that are elements that enable us to be very quick and very responsive to sort of changing circumstances in travel. I would also point out that there are very few car rental companies that can respond to what we saw in Christmas relative to Hertz. Now there are other majors that can but there are a myriad of smaller players that are not in a position to put their customers in one-way rentals in the way in which we can. And I think that's a very big deal to the extent that customers are going to be anxious about disruption to airline travel, they will know that if they're in a Hertz, if they are in a Hertz rental that we're going to be in a position to serve them no matter where they get rerouted or how they want to get to where they get to. That's a competitive edge for us relative to smaller niche players in the rental car industry. And I think when it's tough, you want to be able to sort of rely on a company to deliver and we did in Christmas, and we will should those disruptions sort of happen again.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd now like to hand the call back to Stephen Scherr, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Stephen Scherr

Management

So thank you all for your participation today. We look forward to sharing further updates with you all certainly on our next call, if not before. And with that, I'll turn it back to the operator.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the Hertz Global Holdings Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation.