Nee Chuan Teo
Analyst · Billy Ng from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Billy
Thank you, Xinxin. Good morning, everyone. As shown on Slide 19, at the end of 2019, we had a total number of 5,618 hotels with 536,876 rooms in operation, an increase of 27% from the end of 2018. We accelerated our hotel openings at the second-half of 2019. Our total – the total revenue – the total turnover at our hotel level has reached RMB35 billion, an increase of 19% from a year ago. Turning to 20. For the full-year in 2019, despite the economy headwind, our blended RevPAR was 30. It increased by 0.1%, excluding our soft brands with a lower ADR, our blended RevPAR increased by 0.8%. The ADR increased by 3.6%, contributed by an increasing mix of mid and upscale and upgraded hotels with higher ADR. However, the increase in ADR was offset by a 3 percentage point decrease in occupancy. The lower occupancy was largely attributable to the softer macroeconomic environment. Focusing on RevPAR numbers on a per quarter basis may sometimes miss out the bigger picture on the company’s core competitive strength, which is clearer EBIT look at longer trend. On page 21, we set out our blended RevPAR for the last 12 years and compare that with two of our peers in China. Huazhu had consistently recorded a higher blended RevPAR compared to our peers, either in an up cycle or on a down cycle. More importantly, this competency gap has been widening since 2016. These reflects Huazhu’s core competitive strength in our operational capabilities. Please see our financial results on Slide 22. Our net revenues grew by 8.5% in Q4 and 11.4% for the full-year of 2019, in line with our previous guidance. Breaking down the revenue growth in 2019, net revenues from our leased and operated hotels improved by 3% year-over-year and net revenues from our manachised and franchised hotels was up 32% year-over-year. In 2019, revenue contributed by our asset-light manachised business models accounted for 29.8% in the total revenues, up 4.7 percentage point from 25.1% in 2018. We expect the contribution from our manachised business will continue to increase going forward. We have made – we have constantly made good progress in our midscale hotel segment. As shown on Slide 23, in 2019, the revenue from mid and upscale hotels increased by 23% to RMB6 billion, accounting for 3% of total net revenues, up from 50% a year ago. Let’s now turn to Slide 24 on the operating income and margin. The reported income from operation was RMB2.1 billion, compared to RMB2.3 billion last year. The reporting operating margin was 18.8%, 4.5 percentage points lower compared to 2018. The lower operating profit and margin, mainly due to our investment in hotel development teams, upgraded upscale hotels and IT capabilities. Excluding this investment, the pro forma income from operations would have been RMB2.5 billion, compared to RMB2.3 billion last year. The pro forma operating margin would have been 22.8%, 0.7 percentage lower compared to the pro forma margin recorded last year. The lower pro forma margin was mainly due to certain one-time compensation received in 2018, totaling RMB79 million and also a one-time lease related compensation paid in 2019 of RMB24 million. As we updated our last quarterly calls – earnings calls, we have increased the headcount of our development team. The result has been positive. We have seen our new hotel openings accelerated in Q4 and the unopened pipeline hotels doubled to 2,262 at the end of 2019, compared to 1,105 last year. The faster hotel networks will bring in revenue and operating profits when they are opened. Another area where we have invested is in our IT talent pools. As Ji Qi and Xinxin explained in their presentation earlier, our technology capabilities allow us to drive both operational efficiencies and better customer experience, particularly during the challenging operating environment during the COIVD-19 outbreak. As Ji Qi mentioned earlier, we have recorded a higher online central reservation and online payments. Our technology team is also working on a good number of other projects, which we will incorporate into our hotel operations. We will share these developments with you at a later time. As also mentioned during our earlier earnings call presentation in the previous quarters, we made a certain strategic deployment into upscale hotel segment by expanding our team and securing a number of strategically located properties in Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou and Chengdu for our upscale hotels. This has caused our payroll costs and preopening expenses to increase as compared to last year. These hotels will start to generate revenue in 2020 when they are opened. We believe these investment will bring in additional revenue and drive margin expansion in the coming periods. In this quarter, we have – we also recorded a lower other operating income compared to 2018. This is mainly due to the reason I mentioned above, which is one-off compensation received in 2018 and one-off lease related compensation paid in 2019. The pre-operating expenses as a percentage of net revenue was 4.5%, increased by 2.0 percentage points. The increase was mainly attributable to the construction of upscale brand hotels in 2019. The SG&A expenses and other operating income as a percentage of net revenue increased by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year. The increase in selling and marketing expenses was mainly due to expansion of our sales and marketing team to strengthen our directional channels, increased bank charges for online payments and higher commission fees paid to online travel agencies. And this – and the increase in general administrative expenses was mainly due to our investment to expand our hotel development teams, upscale brand hotels and IT capabilities. Turning to Page 25. Our adjusted EBITDA increased by 2.4 percentage points to RMB3.3 billion, compared to RMB3.2 billion last year. The non-GAAP pro forma adjustments mentioned on this page included the unrealized gain or losses from the fair value changes of equity securities related to our investments such as cost shares, while the pro forma adjustments also take into account of our investment in development teams, IT capabilities and upscale brands. Excluding these pro forma non-GAAP adjustments in 2019, our pro forma adjusted EBITDA increased by 2.4 percentage point year-over-year to RMB2.7 billion, while our pro forma EBITDA margin also improved by 1.2 percentage points to RMB33.7 million from 32 – from 32.5 percentage last year. Let’s move on to the financial impact from the COVID-19 to our China business on Page 27. As mentioned by Jin Hui earlier, this pandemic has a significant impact on our business. The strict but effective containment measures by the Chinese government such as travel restrictions and lockdowns has caused our hotel occupancy and revenue to drop significantly for a three months period starting from February. And we expect it to take another further three or to more months to recover. We expect the impact of this pandemic will have caused our revenue to drop by 44 – 45% to 50% in Q1 2020 in China. Our hotel – our major hotel operating costs, such as rental and people costs, however, are relatively fixed. In this connection, we have taken strict actions to start negotiating with our landlords on rental relief and/or deferment. We adopted a targeted cash flow security method, where we work backwards to reduce or eliminate all discretionary spendings, freeze headcount in head office, reduce and postponement of our capital expenditure based on our cash flow situations. The objective is to build a safety cash reserve balance to account for any unforeseen circumstances. We also took this opportunity to streamline our head office headcount and reorganize our corporate activities, so that we will come out from this pandemic leaner and more efficient. Based on our estimate, the cash shortfall, excluding any bank borrowings, was in a range of RMB400 million to RMB500 million. Since the lockdown of Wuhan City due to the pandemic, Huazhu has reached out to our banks for support. Our bank has been very supportive, they have reduced the interest rates on their bank facilities to below the bank lending rates. More importantly, they also extended additional facilities to Huazhu. At the end of 2019, Huazhu had unutilized bank facilities of RMB1.7 billion. At March 26, which is yesterday, Huazhu had unutilized bank facilities of RMB2.1 billion. Such bank facilities will allow Huazhu sufficient cash resource to face with any uncertainty that may be forthcoming. I also would like to share with you on our other liquidity position. As of December 2019, Huazhu had short-term bank borrowings – short-term debt totaling RMB8.5 billion, or approximately US$1.2 billion. This short-term debt comprises of syndication loan of $500 million, convertible bond of $475 million and US$230 million of bank borrowings that has been fully pledged in cash. The short-term syndication loan of $500 million was previously used for the acquisition of Crystal Orange in 2017 and it was due in May 2020. This syndication loan has been fully refinanced in January 2020 by a new syndication loan that is due in December 2022, which is three years away. The convertible bond of $475 million was a five-put-three [ph] expiring in November 2022. The reason why we reclassified this note in short-term debt because of the three-year put in – embedded in this convertible bond. The CB investors have the right to put the note back to the company on November 2, 2020, which is later this year. If Huazhu shares on 2020, to fall below, say, $30, after that date, the investor will hold onto this note until it’s expiry in November 2020 when the investor can decide either to convert the note into Huazhu shares at a predetermined price at approximately US$45 or request the company to repurchase a note from them on that date. The remaining balance of the short-term debt was bank borrowings fully pledged by cash. This is for the dividend planning purposes. This loan will be repaid using their cash pledged to the banks. In January, we raised a new syndication loan totaling US$1 billion to refinance our old syndication loan of US$500 million mentioned above and also for the acquisition of Deutsche Hospitality. This syndication loan requires Huazhu’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to be kept within 4.5 times. As mentioned, our efforts to reduce our cost mentioned above will have a positive impact on our cash flow. However, according to the accounting treatment under the U.S. GAAP, any rental cost reduction will have to be spread out throughout the life of the lease periods, this will not be helpful to our EBITDA in 2020, particularly in first-half of the year. In this connection, we are proactively seeking a 12 months waiver from our syndication banks. We have secured the approval from the three regional banks and they are helping us to secure a single approval from the participating banks. Based on our initial discussion with a major participants in China, the result is expected to be favorable. Coming to the financial impact of COVID-19 on Deutsche Hospitality on Page 28. Firstly, Deutsche Hospitality had a good start in 2020. It exceeded the monthly revenue budget in both January and February this year. However, due to the COVID-19 the local government has requested it – requested Deutsche Hospitality to close its hotels to content the spread. Therefore, we expect the business will be affected in Q2 and Q3 this year. Similar to our actions in China, we have started negotiating with the landlords to defer the rental payments. They have been very supportive. In addition, we have also put our staff on temporary furlough and frozen our headcounts. We can – we also cut or reduce discretionary spending and capital expenditures. The German government is also making arrangement to compensate the company for staffs under furlough. We expect the maximum cash gap to be in the range of €30 million to €60 million and we are also in discussion with our local bank in Frankfurt for the banking support, they have also been supportive. Turning to Page 29 on guidance. We expect our net revenue for 2020 Q1 to decline by 15% to 20%, or 45% to 50% if we would exclude the revenue from Deutsche Hospitality. We maintain our gross hotel opening target of 1,600 to 1,800 in 2020. On the other hand, we estimated our hotel closures to be in the range of 350 to 450, including the planned closure of 300 to 350 and another 50 to 100 hotels impacted by COVID-19. With that, please open the floor to questions.