Earnings Labs

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)

Q1 2011 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 22, 2011

$21.26

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Transcript

Company Speaker

Management

Well, good afternoon, everybody. If everybody could find their seats as quickly as possible, I'd like to get the next presentation started. And to that end, we're delighted to have with us Jeff Ettinger, the Chairman, CEO and President of Hormel Foods; as well as Jody Feragen, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer; and Kevin Jones, Director of Investor Relations. It's fair to say since taking over the helm, Jeff has transformed Hormel from the protein company that everyone would like to be, which is how I thought it was always described, to a food company, with results that most competitors would like to have over the last two or three years. With strong performance in both Refrigerated Foods and Jennie-O Turkey Store especially, it left them with a solid base for growth in the future, something we're looking forward to hearing about today. Jeff, take it away.

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

Thank you very much, John [ph]. We certainly are going to provide some forward looking statements this afternoon, but before we do that, we want to start with the here and now. This morning was earnings announcement morning for our first quarter of 2011. And we're very pleased that our team was able to deliver an outstanding quarter. We saw sales increase of 11%, with all five operating segments that register year-over-year gains for the quarter. As you can see from the tonnage comparison, we had a certain amount of volume increase. The remainder of the increase in net sales would be attributable to pricing and to enhanced mix of the products. On an earnings per share basis at $0.55 per share, we registered a 34% increase for the quarter, again very strong results. And all of these numbers are post lift [ph] (12:18). Our shareholders approved the split of our stock back on January 31 and it was enacted in the market on Valentine's Day. Jody is going to speak to these results. We're going to kind of have this be a combined forward-looking and strategic session and also give you a little bit of deeper color about our quarter. Before I turn it over to Jody, I do want to mention our new guidance that was included in the release this morning. We have started the year at a guidance range of $1.55 to $1.60 per share. Our new guidance range effective today is $1.62 to $1.68. In generating this range we're kind of balancing the fact that we definitely see significant momentum in our business. Not only did we have such outstanding sales results this quarter, but clearly, in 2010, we had very strong sales results throughout our portfolio. But we're also very mindful of the inflation headwinds that every speaker today has talked to and it certainly will affect our business as well. With that, I'm going to turn the program over for a time here to Jody Feragen, our Chief Financial Officer.

Jody Feragen

Management

Thank you, Jeff. It's certainly nice to be in Florida when you come from cold and snowy Minnesota. But it's also nice to be here on a day that we announce record earnings and record sales for our first quarter. And those sales were really driven by the results at our Jennie-O Turkey Store. They were really exceptional results, segment profit up 122% versus last year. Those profits were positively impacted by higher commodity meat prices, continued operational and efficiency gains in their supply chain, increased value-added sales and favorable hedge position. Sales for the quarter were up 14%, driven by increased volume and the higher prices we talked about on commodity meat. But also our year-end ad campaign helped drive our value-added sales up high single digits and we saw double-digit growth in our Jennie-O Turkey Store turkey burgers and fresh tray pack items. Refrigerated Foods continued to benefit from the higher pork operating profit. Those profits helped offset lower margins in some of our value-added businesses, such as our Meat Products and Foodservice groups that continued to fight against higher pork prices. Refrigerated Foods sales grew 13%. Our Meat Products group saw nice growth with Hormel Party Trays, Hormel pepperoni, Hormel Refrigerated Entrées and our newer Hormel Country Crock Side Dish items. Within Value-added Fresh Meat, our Hormel Always Tender flavored meats showed nice growth for the first quarter as well. Our Foodservice group also saw sales increase, particularly in their Natural Choice and their Barbecue lines. Our Foodservice group continues to see the impact of a weak economy, particularly as it impacts restaurant traffic. Our Grocery Products segment was negatively impacted with both higher input costs, as well as difficult comparisons with a very strong quarter last year. Sales did grow 6%, fueled by growth in our…

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

Thanks, Jody. So I want to go into what's the Hormel story, what has been the story and why do we have confidence in our ability to continue to grow the company in the future? And to us, there's a few kind of hallmark principles or elements of our company. I don't know that they necessarily all set us apart, but in combination, they’ve been the driver of the engine. There's our balanced business model, there's our long heritage of innovation in our success in both new product innovation and in cost base innovation as Jody just referred to and then there's the strong brands that we have with leading shares in certain categories. And I'm going to spend quite a bit of time this afternoon building into those brands and talking to you about six to eight different growth platforms, areas where we're experiencing extra growth that's really fueling our overall success. Starting with the balanced modeling, and Hormel Foods really is the last company out there that has both a fairly deep investment in the protein side of the business, but is deeply involved in packaged foods. We think that provides us with some advantages as we intend to be a leading player in value added meals and value-added products that feature protein-based items. We also have a balance between retail and foodservice in our organization. The franchises I'm going to highlight later, the growth platforms, I'm going to talk about the retail side today. The branded areas that are probably more noticeable and popular in the marketplace, but we are a significant Foodservice company as well. Over $2 billion in our total sales, spread throughout four different business segments are in the Foodservice realm. Other areas of balance that may be less familiar to the audience here…

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

From a quarterly performance standpoint, the kind of operating margins that were generated in the first quarter would not be what we would model to on a full year basis. The first quarter is typically a fairly decent quarter, we have the Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons in there as well. But clearly all elements were aligned for Jennie-O Turkey Store during this last quarter. Some of those elements may shift as time goes on. It's hard to tell what's going to happen with the commodity meat market, but that was certainly a benefit to Jennie-O as we saw unseasonably strong thigh meat and breast meat market. Some we know are going to change because over time, the hedged positions that were advantageous for this quarter are going to lap off and we're going to be at a higher cost environment going forward. And that will be one of the challenges of that team, is to make sure that they find the efficiency savings and take the pricing necessary to cover down those elements. But clearly, the investment we've made in the brand, we feel is essential to continuing to introduce and support the value-added items that can lead to very strong performance for Jennie-O over time. On an international basis, it's a small part of our business. We do kind of recognize it the same way you do that it makes sense that it could be a growing protein and that we could be a growing player in that. But at this point, it's still quite small and we'll just kind of incrementally try to see if we can grow that. Diane Geissler - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc.: Could you just give us, really two questions here, could you give us a little bit more granularity on the turkey results? Sales were up 14%. Could you talk about price versus mix because it sounded like you had more value-add going through the quarter because of advertising, then of course volume. And also some kind of indication on what the hedge benefit was? And then my second question is really on pricing. Jeff, I think in the last call you had, you talked about pricing across a variety of items within the Grocery Products segment, but it wouldn't hit until the second quarter. Is that still the way we should think about pricing because if margins were down there year-on-year, should we look for some margin improvement in the second quarter and going forward?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

That is correct on Grocery Products. We took a wait-and-see attitude during most of fiscal 2010 about pricing to see what was going to happen with grain. It got worse. So wait-and-see went away as of the end of the fourth quarter. There's a certain notice element that all of in the Grocery business have to provide these days. For certain other franchises, where if they're market-based items such as bacon or fresh pork, those prices already have moved and were reflected in this quarter's results. But for items like Grocery Products which are more of a list price element, we actually announced two different waves of price increases, one of them kicks here in period four and the other one kicks in, in period six. So you're correct, in the first quarter results there really was no benefit from pricing for Grocery Products and we'll see that a little bit in the second quarter and much more so in the third quarter.

Jody Feragen

Management

And I think if I'm recalling the question correctly, it was the driver of the Jennie-O Turkey Store sales, and the increase in price there was mostly related to the commodity meat sales. They had increased volume in commodity meats as well as the higher prices than we'd experienced before. I would tell you that in the value-added businesses that they have moved pricing. But those same high commodity meat prices are the transfer values that go into those value-added products. So they're probably not fully covered down. The hedge benefit, I would say that there we're probably seeing the stronger portion of it in the early half of the year and that, that will tail down at the end of the year. So first and second quarters are probably going to have a better hedge benefit for Jennie-O than the end of the year, and I don't have specific numbers related to that.

Kenneth Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Management

To catch up on the $2 billion new product challenge, has Hormel actually accelerated the new product beyond what your original plan was, are we going to start to see them within the next three to six months? How does that play out? That's my first question.

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

Well the measurement we use and other companies use different measurements, we only look at the current year sales, but we will track back which is now -- we started to measure the year 2000, we're still tracking some of those items. For a 120-year-old company, I guess 10 years to us is still relatively new. We always have a certain amount of new offerings coming out in the marketplace. Examples of that for this year would be Kids Compleats or the Pepperoni Stix and the Salami Stix, those items. But it's also the acceleration of other items. We see that. It takes time to change consumers' taste. We often are seeing accelerations in growth in year five, year six, year seven that's true with the retail grocery environments or frankly even in Foodservice. Again, I didn't spend much time on Foodservice today but we have franchises such as AUSTIN BLUES and Café H and the Natural Choice component of Foodservice that keep showing growth as well, and that has to support ultimately hitting that $2 billion goal.

Kenneth Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Management

On advertising, it seems like you got a higher return on investment on your advertising on the Turkey business. Are there other parts of your portfolio that maybe now you look at, and say, well maybe we should be spending a little bit more and we should accelerate into 2011 and be able to get a return similar to that of the Turkey business and which products. Can you just go into a little detail on that?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

It definitely is eye-opening. And in fact, I highlighted probably the major areas we have advertising expenditures but we had a few others this year. One would be out in the West Coast, for example, is our Farmer John franchise. They had very strong success with a local campaign effort. So you're always looking to see what's working, and I definitely am a believer of throwing logs on a fire that's burning already. And so if we find something that's being successful, we should look for an opportunity to enhance that advertising. And in terms of newer items, I think over time, you'll see us get more and more active in the Mexican food area. We have a number of brands there but we're starting to focus our attention on certain brands for certain product types. And so we'll see where that heads.

Jonathan Feeney - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

Jeff, just to clarify, on one of your slides about Turkey, you cited 4% and 8% household penetration for turkey burgers, I believe, in ground meat or something. Is that Jennie-O number or is that category number?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

All of the numbers I cited on the slide today would be our brand household penetration.

Jonathan Feeney - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

Roughly speaking, what's your share in those businesses and how's the market share for turkey burgers?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

In the lean ground area, our shares are in the 30%, 35% range and turkey burgers were well over half of the prepared frozen market on a measured basis.

Jonathan Feeney - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

So you're still talking about pretty low numbers. I guess as that business potentially grows, I think it’s one of the questions I’ve probably asked a million times, but we've talked about a high single-digit type normalized margin for Jennie-O, but as processed gets bigger and bigger, it seems to maybe migrate upward. Has that happened? What’s a sort of normal conditions, operating margin for the Turkey business over the next five years?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

It's been hard to tell. I think we've had excellent success at least moving the range upward for the low-end and the high-end, but it has been so volatile with the kind of grain picture, that's by far the part of our business that’s most exposed, the direct involvement of grain increases and we've seen now two very significant waves there. We tried to reduce the swings in terms of the commodity market but as Jody talked about for this quarter, they still were a very relevant component of that portfolio. But we know we're moving it upward but we probably haven't settled in yet as to what exactly, if there's a new number there that we can move our goal to in Jennie-O Turkey Store.

Jonathan Feeney - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

Jody, you mentioned high transfer prices. Are there any non-vertically integrated players out there who are sort of suffering in this environment knowing your competitive set?

Jody Feragen

Management

I guess if you we're just making the turkey lunch meat or something, you'd be buying it at market price. Jeff would be the better guy to answer your question.

Jonathan Feeney - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

Let me be more specific. Have you seen any kind of unusual competitive activity that were on marketing or pricing that might indicate a level of competitive distress among players that aren’t vertically integrated or less so?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

Well, we tend to gravitate toward niches where we can have leading shares. We run up against different competition depending on what the segment's like. So that can be a fairly uncertain segment that was here a few minutes ago, it could more [indiscernible] (1:05:40) in certain segments. [Indiscernible] (1:05:43) would be a model where they have half their own company assets half procured. So everyone is in a little bit different supply situation. But I guess we’ve reasonably good success with the pricing initiatives that we’ve pushed, so far so good on those, and that could be in part because of our strong shares and because of our support for the brand. Timothy Ramey - D.A. Davidson & Co.: The cutout margins have been remarkably good for remarkably long. There's kind of a theory out there that the industry is being very restrained in terms of its ability to run on -- or willingness to run on Saturdays or add hours to their production week. Do you have any thoughts on why we're experiencing such great cut out margins even with hog prices up quite a bit?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

Well certainly, our volume’s been fairly steady. But as I talked about earlier, we're not one of the volume players within the pork segment. We're the fifth or sixth largest processor. I can’t speak for what the business rationales are for the other processors. What is clear in the marketplace is that at least one of the plants is closed and so there has been some tightening of capacity in the industry. And the other thing that seems very clear is robust export demand. And so that certainly is driving demand for certain other primals and that's spreading, right now at least, that processor margin. I think we've said over and over on our calls lately, we're not banking on that. It certainly has been a benefit to the group. It's been somewhat of a detriment to the value-added products to have that higher transfer in. But for example, in the guidance we provided for the remainder of the year, we're not counting on getting the double-digit processing numbers that have been generated here lately.

Jody Feragen

Management

I would just add part of what's keeping the hog numbers and processing numbers in check would be the supply on the ground. There's not expansion on the farms either. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG: The Sara Lee Meats business will be a standalone business a year from now. When you think about your M&A strategy there's all kinds of ways to look at it. Would you make a big deal based on cost synergies alone, or would it have to be because you have some expertise that you think you could lend to a business like that? Or do you think that they have some expertise that you think that Hormel could benefit, or should we just not even answer the question and just move on?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

I really can't speak necessarily to Sara Lee in particular at all, but I certainly can talk about general acquisition philosophy, if that's okay with you. Our track record would say we try to make investments in areas we know at least something about. That we want it to be more than just that initial check. So if you look at the recent acquisition, it's Country Crock to add to that refrigerated food line. It's two expansions of the Mexican portfolio, it's Burke's pizza toppings to complement our pepperoni. It's several years ago the Turkey store, to blend in on a branded basis with Jennie-O. So that would be the likely areas we would look. We also have said in the past that we're certainly willing to look outside the United States, with a focus on Asia. But again, it's got to be the right deal at the right time at the right price for it to make sense with Hormel. And we certainly recognize we have both the cash and the debt capacity to expand our business through acquisitions if the right deal comes along.

Akshay Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Management

Focusing again on the Pork business, but I wanted to ask a question more on Grocery Products. It seems like hog prices are up, cutouts are up. And this year, the margins maintained through the whole system, again like last year, you may see some unprecedented levels of cutout prices and maybe even prices for some of your Grocery Products. Now, you have the largest percentage of value-added products from the companies that we follow. What has been the consumer reaction to higher niche prices and how are you looking at that?

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

The key for us that we're going to measure -- we try to work frankly in a partnership with the retailer and a partnership with the Foodservice operator to attain that optimal pricing level. Everybody knows we have a lot of costs to cover, but we also know that we need to ultimately address what the consumer’s needs and desires are. To us, the key barometer is are our items are still growing, and at least through as we said here today through Q1, we had all five segments up. We're really in pretty good shape. That doesn't mean we don't have a few isolated portfolios within certain segments that we keep an eye on and those would probably be ones we’d be a little less likely to push pricing. But that is, as we move into a higher and higher cost environment, we clearly recognize that at least, to somewhat of an unknown [ph] (1:11:05) as to what consumer reaction will be not just to the most recent price increase, but to maybe one that’s going to have to be taken this fall.

Farha Aslam - Stephens Inc.

Management

Jody, you have about $350 million of debt on the balance sheet and otherwise your net debt free. Could you share with us how you think about your capital structure and how much leverage you'd be willing to take on for an acquisition?

Jody Feragen

Management

Providing it provides all the things that Jeff just predicated, that it would deliver -- certainly, we've always talked about being comfortable with up to $1 billion worth of debt. Our $350 million goes away June 1st. We probably will do a small offering just to keep our name out into the capital markets. But we would love to have the opportunity to invest in our business through an acquisition that delivers strategically for us what we need.

Jeffrey Ettinger

Management

Well, I think that's about all the time we have. Thank you very much again for a great presentation.