John Lindsay
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.
I think the first thing to begin with, because it's a great question and I think one of the things you have to - that we all have to recognize is that there's always a certain amount of churn in our rig count. So, we're constantly getting rigs released and in even the strongest of markets because customers are making decisions spending within cash flow or look for whatever reasons are and you're going to see a certain amount of churn. Now, clearly we've seen more churn in the last couple of months and we have rigs that have been released and we haven't had customers to pick those rigs up on. But when you start looking at how quickly oil prices have moved from 70s, down to low 40s, and now somewhere back in the low 50s again, I think what that causes is some rigs are going to be released because some customers again have a certain budget related to the cash flows they are generating. I think in general as you think about the - which is obviously very important, the pricing element, fundamentally, we still have a very strong market, even though there is some super-spec availability, the super-spec utilization of our fleet today is mid-90%s even with additional releases that are coming over the next couple of weeks, we're still at 90% utilization. So pricing we believe is going to remain strong and we think again there's going to be some additional pullback in activity, but with a strong value proposition, with a strong utilization of the super-spec fleet and with as hard as we've all worked to get pricing to the levels that they are today, again, I think fundamentally pricing is going to remain firm. I think in addition to that, Kurt, I think the rig releases are a result of an expectation in some cases that oil was going to be much lower than where it is today. And so again I think it's an opportunity for us as industry participants to figure out how we're going to work in this more volatile oil price environment. I don't think anybody wants to do the stop and start mentality, where your land rig is down, you're picking Rick's back up. So, I think, there's going to have to be some balance in there. But as I said earlier, I think in this softer market, it gives customers an opportunity once the dust settles on, where they think the oil prices are going, or their budgets are going to be and I think it's an opportunity for them to high -grade their fleets.