Earnings Labs

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 16, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Helmerich & Payne's fourth quarter and fiscal year-end earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have the opportunity to ask questions during the question-and-answer session. Please note that this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn this conference over to David Hardie, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. David Hardie - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Thank you, Chris, and welcome, everyone, to Helmerich & Payne's conference call and webcast corresponding to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017. With us today are John Lindsay, President and CEO; and Juan Pablo Tardio, Vice President and CFO. John and Juan Pablo will be sharing some comments with us, after which we will open up the call for questions. As usual, and as defined by the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, all forward-looking statements made during this call are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, as discussed in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.The company's actual results may differ materially from those indicated or implied by such forward-looking statements. We will also be making reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as segment operating income and operating statistics. You may find the GAAP reconciliation comments and calculations in today's press release. I will now turn the call over to John Lindsay. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Thank you, Dave, and good morning everyone. Thank you again for joining us on our fourth fiscal quarter earnings call. Fiscal 2017 witnessed the largest ramp-up of U.S. land rig activity in the company's history, which more than doubled even in the face of oil price uncertainty…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. And our first question comes from Kurt Hallead with RBC. Please go ahead.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hey, good morning. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Good morning, Kurt. Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Good morning.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

So, gentlemen, I think you provided a pretty upbeat, optimistic outlook heading out of this year going into next year, especially in sharp contrast to, as you mentioned, the expectations in kind of the mid-year dynamic. So with that said, yeah, I have also noticed that the incremental rigs that you've been able to place on the term contract relative to what you had shown back in the September timeframe kind of slowed a little bit. You guys, what would you chalk that up to in your mind? Is it the E&P companies going through their budgeting process and kind of getting a read on what they may need in 2018, or do you think that E&Ps are, again, maybe getting ready to hit the pause button? Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Kurt, this is Juan Pablo. Are you referring to the 30 plus rigs that we were able to place under new term contracts as we continue to increase our rig count and as we continue to see roll-offs from old term contracts?

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Just as one example, back in early September, you indicated that there maybe be an average of 59 rigs on term contract for fiscal 2018. In early October, that number jumped up to 75, and now in mid-November, we're looking at 80. So I'm not trying to nitpick, I'm just trying to gauge as to you saw a significant surge in incremental contracts between September and October, and a bit of a slowdown in that process going into November. So I just want to see if there's anything to read into that or not. Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: This is Juan Pablo again. We don't see anything significantly different as compared to what we may have expected, Kurt. It's a combination of the market being relatively strong for FlexRigs. And as we continue to upgrade our fleet, customers on the one hand being willing to enter long-term contracts. And when we say long-term contracts, these are 12 months, 18-month type contracts in general. And our willingness to do that at the same time while we're investing in some of these upgrades. So, we think it's a win-win situation, but again, it's nothing that surprises us significantly.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay, thanks for that color. And John, a question for you is you look at the opportunities. I just want to make sure I heard you correctly when you referenced you have the most rigs that could be potentially upgraded to super-spec capability. And you went on to say even if the rig market remained flat, did I understand that correctly that you guys would still expect to increase your market share and upgrade assets even in a flat rig count environment? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Yeah, Kurt, I think we've been talking about that now for a while. I think we've been able to demonstrate that in a flattish, slightly down, I guess it depends on which rig count service you're looking at. But in general, over the last quarter, the rig count has been relatively flat, and we've been able to continue to add to our active fleet as well as continue to upgrade rigs to super-spec. And again, we've got our market share up to 20%. I do think that the rig count that we've seen over the last quarter is a function of an expectation of $45 to $50 oil price or mid-$40 type oil prices. Obviously, oil prices have improved significantly over the last several weeks. We're not necessarily expecting or have a belief that it's going to remain there. But if you do see that outlook change toward an expectation of higher oil prices, then I think in some cases you may see not a dramatic improvement in rig count, but I think maybe a continued improvement in rig count. And with that, what we've seen is a pretty high level of churn related to contracts and working for different customers. And I think customers in that sort of an environment, where they're focused pretty heavily on capital discipline, they're going to be looking at getting the best services and the best performance that they can get. And so if you're drilling more challenging wells and you don't have a rig that is super-spec capable, you've got some opportunity to improve your drilling times and lower your costs by having a higher capacity rig. So I know it's a long answer to your question, but I think in general, we feel pretty confident that we can continue to grow our fleet and take some market share because of the value that our folks are able to provide in the field.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

And what do you think the market price would have to be to economically justify a newbuild? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: I'm not certain what a competitor's newbuild would be. I've heard estimates of low $20 million range. I think if that's the case, and if they're going to get a reasonable rate of return on that investment, I think you're going to need a $26,000 or $27,000 a day, day rate in order to get a reasonable rate of return. And again, I would think you'd want to have a multiple-year term contract.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Got it, thank you so much for the color. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Okay. Thank you, Kurt. Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: And, Kurt, let me add a little bit more granularity on your prior question as it relates to term contracts. Part of the consideration is that our fleet in the U.S. Land segment has been more or less 50% under term contract, 50% in the spot market. That metric has remained relatively flat, so that is not surprising. The other consideration as well is that as availability of the right type of rig, as John mentioned, becomes tighter, customers are more willing and, as a matter of fact, requesting to enter into term contracts. So the combination of those two things I believe is what leads to what we saw and thus is not surprising given market conditions. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Chris, we can take the next question, please.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Colin Davies with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead. Colin Davies - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Thank you very much and good morning. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Good morning. Colin Davies - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Good morning. The tone, obviously, is far more positive than a quarter ago where the narrative was much more cautious, and you alluded to that in the prepared remarks. We have to talk about the dividend, and you did emphasize at the closing of the prepared remarks that you're anticipating being able to hold the current level of dividend through next year. Is it fair to say that those more cautious comments that you made on the last call, that's really been put to one side now in terms of the financial plan going through for next year? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Colin, this is John. I'll let Juan Pablo make a few remarks on this as well. He'll have some additional color. But I think in general, you look back and you just look at oil prices, I don't remember what oil was trading during that week, but I remember we had some low $40s and mid-$40s, and I think just the general outlook obviously was challenging. At the same time, we also had a belief that the rig count was going to remain relatively flat, even though there were folks that were saying look for 100 to 300-rig count pull back. And we didn't believe that, we didn't see it coming from our customers. Obviously, it could have happened if oil would have remained in the low $40s or gone into the $30s, which I think a lot of people were thinking. But I think…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Marc Bianchi with Cowen. Please go ahead. Marc Bianchi - Cowen & Co. LLC: Thank you. Following up to the upgrade questions. Juan Pablo, I just want to clarify. You said $2 million to $3 million, it sounded like, for the basic upgrade. And then it could be as high as $8 million. Is that an additional $8 million? So we should be thinking $10 million to $11 million as sort of the high end, or was that all-in for $8 million? Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Marc, it is all in. So, just to clarify, we are only adding, in some cases, walking systems to rigs that don't have any type of skidding or multiple well pad drilling capabilities. So, we would never take a rig that already has a skidding system and add a walking system to that. Hopefully that clarifies the question. Marc Bianchi - Cowen & Co. LLC: Yeah, no, that is helpful. I guess, in the context of your earlier comments, prepared comments about 250 upgrade candidates in the marketplace, what do you think the average upgrade cost is for those? Because if we go back maybe three or four quarters to what you and some of your peers were saying, it sounded like most of the rigs to upgrade were in the couple million – $3 million range, and now we're hearing from you guys and we've heard from some others that there's this higher $8 million to $10 million for maybe the next layer of rigs to be upgraded. Do you have any comments on the market overall? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Marc, that's a great question. We only really know, of course, what our upgrades are. Again, to be…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Thomas Curran with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Thomas Curran - B. Riley FBR, Inc.

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Good morning. Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Good morning.

Thomas Curran - B. Riley FBR, Inc.

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

John, I'm sorry if I missed this in your introductory remarks, but where would your team currently place the industry's existing super-spec fleet? How big is it as of today? And then, on the new build side, what's your current tally or estimated range of the number of new builds that remain in the industry construction queue? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: I'm not certain about the new build. Dave, do you have any feedback on the new build? It's a relatively small number. I'd say – yeah, I was going to say 10. I was going to say two handfuls. So about 10 that we hear about. I think depending on the definition of super-spec, and the purest definition and the way we've outlined super-spec, we think there's around 400 that are active today in U.S. land. And, I think there's – if you add in some other categories, it could be as high as 450 to 475. Total, AC rigs running, drilling horizontal and directional wells is close to – according to the rig data, is close to 900 rigs. So, about half of the AC rigs that are running today, we believe, are – close to half are upgraded to super-spec. And then there's another 250 that we think are upgrade candidates. We know we have 109 of those that we know are upgrade candidates. The others, again, we're just kind of looking at base model designs and making the assumption that those rigs can be upgraded. And if I'm not mistaken, the 250, about half of those are working. So out of the 250, about half of that upgradable fleet is actually working today.

Thomas Curran - B. Riley FBR, Inc.

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

That's great, John. That's exactly the perfect super-spec supply side summary I was looking for. And then turning to Argentina, it hasn't got much attention lately for some obvious reasons. But on the back of YPF's recently announced plan to spend $23 billion over the next five years, and the passage and sigh of relief coming out of the elections, what are your expectations there? Have you seen or do you expect to see new opportunities arise? And if so, would you be interested in them? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: I think there is some opportunities. It's funny how this international market can change pretty quickly, just like the U.S. market can change pretty quickly. It's nice to see our international rig count increasing, and a big portion of that has been in Argentina. So I do think that there are some additional opportunities for us. If you recall, we sent the 10 Flex3s to Argentina for YPF several years ago. Those were all FlexRig3s with skid systems. And so again, I think we obviously have the rigs on the ground here and the capability to do that if the demand is there and the right contract and the right rate is there. Again, our rigs have done a great job drilling, so I think we'll have some opportunities.

Thomas Curran - B. Riley FBR, Inc.

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

And then I'll squeeze in one more here. What is the CapEx allocation for MOTIVE in 2018? And what are the catalysts, if any, that might lead you to decide to meaningfully step that up? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: The CapEx, if you look at it as it relates to rigs, it's just very, very minimal. I'm not even sure, Juan Pablo has... Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: It's insignificant. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Again, the great news for us is it's really a software company, and the CapEx requirements are very, very low. And so that's one of the things that's really compelling about their business model. So I wouldn't expect it to be a needle-mover.

Thomas Curran - B. Riley FBR, Inc.

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

All right. Thanks for taking my questions, guys. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: All right, Thomas. Thank you. Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Brad Handler with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks. Good morning guys. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Good morning, Brad.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Maybe some small questions first. The low $20,000s day rate that you cited, John, is that for a super-spec rig? So having the 7,500-psi mud system for example, and other bells and whistles versus something that is super-speccable? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Yes, the low $20,000s is a super-spec rig, so it has the super-spec upgrades.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay, got it. You've had this nice experience of customers saying let's just get to work and then we'll upgrade on the fly, and you've talked to us about your ability to do that. Do you sense that that's still the primary way customers are contracting with you? Let's get going, and then we'll upgrade as we can? Or is it shifting to, I'd like to actually get a super-spec rig, so please put the investment in now and then we'll start? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Brad, for the most part, the customers that wanted super-spec – again, if you go back to – if you heard my earlier comments related to super-spec, we put out 91, about 22 or so a quarter. Most of those customers wanted the super-spec upgrade prior to taking the rig. And so what happened, though, is once we outran the capability of our cadence, that's when customers said hey, I'll go ahead and take the rig now and we'll upgrade it in a month or in two months, whatever time period. So, I think again, today we're not at near the cadence that we were then. I think in most cases, we're able to make the upgrades prior to the rig going to work, not in all cases. But I think to the heart of your question, if it's a longer lateral, higher complexity well, by not having some of the super-spec upgrades, primarily on the pumping side and sometimes on the top drive side, top drive horsepower side, then you actually are putting the wellbore at risk if you don't have those capabilities. So I think it's that type of a trade-off. I think it depends on how long the lateral is and how challenging the wells might be.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

That makes sense, okay. I get that, okay. Juan Pablo, on the OpEx side, please, in U.S. onshore, is it reasonable for us to think about some sort of pro-rata stepping down over time? Let's just say hypothetically, you exit fiscal 2018 at 250 rigs working, for example. Could we think about operating expense being something like $13,250? In other words, because there's less allocating, there's less inactive rig costs. I'm obviously taking out the reactivation side. But is that the logical way for us to think about getting down to your underlying per rig OpEx? Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: I think that's very reasonable, given the assumptions that you mentioned. We probably, in that scenario, have some idle rigs still out there. And so the 250, given that level of activity, sounds reasonable.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: I mean the 250 rigs over the $13,000 average.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Right. Right, right, right. Okay. That's helpful. I just felt like I hadn't had a placeholder on that. And then maybe the last one, and I don't mean to cheat or something, but are you charging for MOTIVE services today, or would you say that the rigs on which it's working are still in trial mode? Could you just give us a status update there? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: MOTIVE is working as they were prior to the acquisition. And so yes, they have different business models in terms of how they charge, but yeah, they are charging for their services. And there are varying levels of the product that they provide, if you will. And so there are different levels of charges, depending upon what they're providing.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: So it's not part of – it's not thrown in on a FlexRig. It's not just part of the offering. And again, I think it's important to note that the MOTIVE activity today, a third of the work is on FlexRigs. The rest of it is on pier rigs.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Right. And you will remain open to using third-party rigs, I imagine, right? John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: We said it from the beginning that our intent is to keep MOTIVE independent. And we're kind of agnostic as to where they work. And again, they're working for E&Ps. Their customer base are E&Ps and directional drillers. And it doesn't matter to them whether they're on FlexRig or Brand x.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Right, right. Okay. Very good. Thank you. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: All right, Brad. Thanks.

Bradley Philip Handler - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I'll turn it back, thanks. John W. Lindsay - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Chris, we probably have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Certainly. And our last question comes from Waqar Syed with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Thank you. My question is regarding the working capital is – what do you expect for working capital changes in 2018? Do you see that as a source of cash or cash use, assuming a flattish rig environment going forward? Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Waqar, this is Juan Pablo. We would expect the working capital requirement to increase. So that would probably be a use, given that we have a relatively optimistic expectation in terms of what happens going forward. But, given your assumption, which is relatively flat, then working capital requirements may stay relatively flat as well. Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Okay. All right. And then, your Offshore management contracts, how long should we expect that those revenues and models to continue? Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: We have – you're referring to the Offshore? Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: That's right, yeah. Juan Pablo Tardio - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: Yeah. We have 5 rigs that are currently working. I believe that most of those, 4 of the 5 are under operating day rates. I believe that one still is under standby type day rates. So, nothing necessarily expected to change significantly going forward. There are some opportunities ahead, and we may see some movement there. But, I'd be speculating if I'd mention some numbers. I think, assuming that what we expect to see in the first fiscal quarter may recur, probably makes sense. Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: The $4.5 million management contract margin that you have in the December quarter, you think that could reoccur again…

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.