Earnings Labs

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 25, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Second Fiscal Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And please note, today's call is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Juan Pablo Tardio, Vice President and CFO.

Douglas E. Fears

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome, everyone. With us today are Hans Helmerich, Chairman and CEO; and John Lindsay, President and COO. As usual and as defined by the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, all forward-looking statements made during this call are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties as discussed in the company's annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. The company's actual results may differ materially from those indicated or implied by such forward-looking statements. We will also be making reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as segment operating income and operating statistics. You may find the GAAP reconciliation comments and calculations on the last page of today's press release. I'll now turn the call over to Hans Helmerich.

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst

Thanks, Juan Pablo. Good morning, everyone. We posted solid results for the company's second quarter, considering the sideways nature of the land drilling business since the beginning of 2013. Perhaps, some of the lack of customer urgency is fanning the ongoing macro uncertainty we all read about, including concerns around China, continuing clouds over Europe and, recently, oil prices falling below $90 per barrel. Of course, the last item, oil prices, remains the driver for the energy space and critical to our business, particularly now with nearly 95% of our fleet directed toward oil and liquids-rich drilling. Our assumption is that oil prices show resiliency in the mid-$80-plus range, which we believe would be enough to accommodate gradual growth in activity as we move through 2013. One pleasant surprise has been a nice recovery in natural gas prices as they approach the mid-$4 range with the aid of a lingering winter. While at some point, improving natural gas prices will show up in an improvement of the gas-directed rig activity, for now, better pricing helps boost our customers' cash flows and improves the economics of projects where associated gas is significant. So in a steady state market or, more likely, one with slow growth, how would we expect to fare? We have mentioned before some advantages we have in this environment. Customers are deliberate with their budget dollars and become increasingly discriminating with the service providers they engage. Even more so, as they shift into a developmental phase of their drilling projects, where consistency in performance, safety and additional efficiency capture all become imported differentiators. We would expect this to help us again to gain additional market share and appeal for first-time customers with similar aspirations. This environment also helps to moderate industry capacity additions. By our estimate, 80 to…

Juan Pablo Tardio

Analyst

Thank you, Hans. As announced earlier today, the company reported another strong quarter with over $150 million in income from continuing operations. Our balance sheet is in great shape, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 6% and total assets now exceeding $6 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $494 million during the first 6 months of the fiscal year, and capital expenditures reached $438 million during the same period. We have increased our capital spending estimate for fiscal 2013 to $850 million. Approximately 60% of this total is related to our new build program, 25% to maintenance CapEx, and the remainder to tubulars and other special projects. Our depreciation estimate for the year remains at $450 million, and our general and administrative expense estimate for the year remains at $125 million. Our interest expense estimate, which is net of capitalized interest, also remains at approximately $5 million during fiscal 2013. Our tax rate for continuing operations for the first 6 months of the fiscal year was approximately 35% and is expected to remain at that level during the remaining 2 quarters of the fiscal year. The holdings in our investment portfolio remain unchanged as compared to the prior quarter and recently had a total pretax market value of approximately $450 million and an after-tax value of approximately $290 million. I'll now turn the call over to John Lindsay. And after John's comments, we will open the call for questions.

John W. Lindsay

Analyst

Thank you, Juan Pablo, and good morning, everyone. We had another strong quarter in all 3 of our operating segments, U.S. Land, Offshore and International Land. We believe our strategy of investing in our people, new technology and improved systems is paying off as the demands intensify for faster and faster well cycles in the unconventional plays. Our customers not only expect more from our FlexRigs in terms of performance, but they also expect safe, consistent and reliable operations. And our belief is better technology solutions more effectively deliver on those expectations. I'll begin the operating results discussion for the second fiscal quarter with our U.S. Land segment, where U.S. Land operating income decreased 3.6% quarter-over-quarter to $226 million, and revenue days increased 104 days to 21,847 days, representing approximately 243 average active rigs in the quarter as compared to 236 rigs active in the prior quarter. We experienced a mix of term and spot market rigs for the quarter that averaged approximately 161 rigs and approximately 82 rigs, respectively. Average rig revenue per day increased by $215 sequentially to $28,255 per day. Early termination revenue in the quarter accounted for approximately $30 per day of the increase. Average rig revenue per day for rigs working on term contracts during the first fiscal quarter was approximately 8% higher than average rig revenue per day for rigs working in the spot market. This difference is primarily attributable to the mix of FlexRig models and operating regions in these 2 categories. As expected, our U.S. Land average rig expense per day increased for the second fiscal quarter. The expense per day had a net increase of $451 per day to $13,085, with approximately $174 per day of the increase due to a bad debt reserve recorded as a result of the small…

Juan Pablo Tardio

Analyst

Thank you, John. And now, Tasha, please, we can open the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Robin Shoemaker with Citi.

Robin E. Shoemaker - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to just clarify what you were saying about the expected drop in spot pricing. So you're indicating that 1% down in the next quarter in terms of margin and then, ultimately, 2% to 3% is the deterioration you expect. So how do you kind of arrive at that number? Do you think we've -- we're bottoming out in terms of pricing pressure?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst

Well, let me just clarify, Rob, and this is Hans, that the 2% to 3% was addressing the spot rates. And then as you include the term coverage, which is close to 2/3, then going into the third quarter, we're looking at a 1% possible diminishment. So it's a little bit less than what you said, but just for clarity.

Robin E. Shoemaker - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

I see. Okay. So basically, then the 2% to 3% has already happened in terms of the spot rate, and then it's blended with the term rate. So are the idle AC drive rigs you mentioned, the 21, are they -- how -- what are the prospects for them going back to work either on a spot or term market in the current quarter?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst

Well, I think we're positive about it. Those rigs are all ready to work. We'd be open to either term or spot workers spread over several basins. And so it gets back to the thought that we're going to see some activity improvement and strengthening in the current quarter and then as we go through 2013, and we'd expect those rigs -- I'd like to think all those rigs go to work by the end of our fiscal year, but we'd expect to see some take up in that idle capacity.

John W. Lindsay

Analyst

Robin, this is John. I might also add, those 21, I commented that approximately half of those were working in the last quarter, so implied in that, some of the rigs that were stacked last quarter went back to work. So there's this kind of this churn that we've talked about. And again, our hope would be that we continue to put the rigs to work, but we have less rigs that are released. And there are just all kinds of different reasons that they get released. But our hope would be that those rigs would begin to -- or we would have fewer stacked rigs in the coming quarters.

Robin E. Shoemaker - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Right. Okay. And you are negotiating, in some cases, term contracts on currently idle rigs, or would you expect them all to go to work on the spot market?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst

It's been a combination of both. Yes, we've had both.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Dave Wilson with Howard Weil.

David Wilson - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst · Howard Weil.

Hans and John, I appreciate the comments on your skidding rigs, but I'm just wondering, do certain areas make it more advantageous for a skidding rig versus walking or vice versa, or is it fairly agnostic? And then as a kind of a follow-on there, are you aware of losing out on a recontracting [ph] opportunity or an opportunity, for that matter, solely on the basis that there -- it was a walking rig versus what you guys had to offer?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Howard Weil.

Go ahead.

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Howard Weil.

Dave, this is John. I think the customer is agnostic. I don't think they care whether we're using a skid system or a lift-and-roll or walking or stomper system. As it relates to the new build environment, I think there's, obviously, been some traction with the walking and stomper systems with older rigs because it accommodates that older structure, and that's advantageous and will be for some -- for I think a fairly short period of time. But kind of like I said in my comments, as well as Hans did, we continue to see rigs contracted, new build rigs, for the last 5 that we've contracted were rigs that were pad drilling systems with skid applications. We continue to have a lot of demand for that. I'm not aware of a particular rig line that we've lost. I don't know the specifics there. But what I do know is that we continue to have customers pick up the systems and add systems to existing rigs.

David Wilson - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst · Howard Weil.

Great. And then, Hans, just kind of an unrelated follow-on, and not that there's really any indication of change, but do you suspect looking out the way the land rig market is evolving in such a way that there's going to be more rigs in the spot market than -- versus term than there are today? In other words, do we need to get used to seeing more rigs in the spot market, or is it too early to say?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Howard Weil.

Dave, it may be too early, and a lot of that is what the market serves up. At the same time, we've got a nice profile and split between term and spot rigs. And I don't think there's a built-in bias for that moving down, meaning the term coverage moving down. The numbers we give you in terms of the 158 for the third quarter and then how that plays through, as you know, those are static numbers, so when we signed a term contract, we add that. So I don't have any reason to think that, that mix or profile would change significantly. And we just kind of see where the market takes us.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Michael LaMotte with Guggenheim securities.

Michael K. LaMotte - Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Guggenheim securities.

First question. I don't -- John or Hans, I don't know which of you wants to address it. With...

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Guggenheim securities.

Depends on how hard it is.

Michael K. LaMotte - Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Guggenheim securities.

With the Saudi rig count looking to go up 30-some-odd rigs and large tenders out there, is that a market that you all would consider moving into? And frankly, looking at the tenders, are they of interest to you?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Guggenheim securities.

Well I'll start, and then John can add. We do have a better presence and footprint in the Middle East than we've ever had, and we've had nice performance from the FlexRigs we have there. Our difficulty in Saudi Arabia has been more contractually driven and trying to work through some of those issues and then just looking at the types of potential returns. Clearly, when they're in a up-ramp mode and adding rigs, and we've heard it expressed that they're very interested in having FlexRigs in country, so I would still like to think that we're going to have an opportunity to be over there. We don't have anything on the plate right now.

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Guggenheim securities.

Yes, Michael, I don't have much to add other than just to echo what Hans said as far as the performance. And we have 2 FlexRigs in Abu Dhabi, as you probably know, and those rigs are really performing well, great safety performance, great rig move performance. Well cycles are much quicker than what they anticipated, and we're even doing a little bit of science work on the wells also. So I've been very pleased, and I think we've opened a lot of eyes in the Middle East. So yes, we would be hopeful that, that would happen in the future.

Michael K. LaMotte - Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Guggenheim securities.

Okay. Hans, on the issue of cash return, I think you've been, frankly, amongst the clearest in terms of defining the spectrum of opportunities. Here's our cash flow, we'll either go to -- grow for -- or get returned. I'm wondering if in conversations that the board has had over the last couple quarters on this topic, if there's been anything you can say about whether distributions would continue to be annual or whether you would consider to move to a variable dividend structure that's biannual or even quarterly.

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Guggenheim securities.

Yes. I appreciate the question. And we had our last dividend increase that came from our December meeting. And it's something, Michael, that the board continues to look at, and we've considered different versions of variable dividend that you're talking about. It will -- I think it's a project in progress. I think the board is very supportive and would say that there is additional headroom going forward in a dividend of some kind, and then whether or not we would move the timing of that up prior to our December meeting, I think there's a possibility of that. So all of those things are on the table and then in flux no clear direction that I can provide right now on this call, except to say that we continue to stay that carefully.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question from Byron Pope with Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Byron K. Pope - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division: Hans or John, just wanted to get your thoughts. I realized the overall U.S. Land rig count has been -- activity has been flattish year-to-date. And in thinking about your 20, 21 idle AC rigs versus the 2 rigs -- new build rigs per month that you're going to continue to build, is there any meaningful distinction between those 20, 21 idle rigs in terms of the characteristics of those rigs versus the 2 rigs per month that you're going to continue to build that, that might suggest that it might be harder to put some of those currently idle AC rigs back to work as we step through the next 2, 3 months?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst

I don't think that there's a stranded model out there, if you will. I think that it's a situation where we're not dissuaded or feel overwhelmed that, "Hey, we have some capacity. How does that flow back into our manufacturing plants?" And Byron, you remember, we've talked about -- as we consider our go forward on our cadence, we've had the nice situation where everything we've built to-date for a long, long time has been under contract. And when we made the announcement in the fall that we were going to go to 2 rigs in '13, starting in '13, we knew that we had a couple rigs in January, I think 1 in February went under contract. And so these most recent new build orders help us keep moving that to the right. So now we have 1 left under contract to deliver, and now here is kind of the junction we're at now, is we can take some of that equipment from the supply chain and unitize it and have it be capital spares, or it also lends itself to being new completed rigs. And so what our plans are today, to go forward for a few months, and we'll have, obviously, more information on the July call, if not before that, and we'll give a better indication of, "Okay, well, are you converting those to new rigs or are those capital spares?" but we have that type of flexibility. And based on conversations we're having with customers, I'd like to think that we're going to be able to stay with completing and putting rigs out under contract. But if it came to a point where we ended up with 1/2 dozen or a dozen-or-so rigs that we ended up building out on our own account, we'd be willing to do that as well. So part of it is a read of how we see demand developing forward and I think being somewhat optimistic about that, and that's driving our thinking and our plans right now.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Michael Cerasoli with Goldman Sachs.

Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

This is actually Waqar Syed from Goldman. Just a couple of questions. Number one, something related to Byron's question as well. But you were the first in this sort of new design AC system rig. And as you look back at your -- some of your earlier rigs, FlexRig3s, and compare them to the FlexRigs that you're building today, the FlexRig3s, is there different equipment on that rig in terms of performance? And as you look at the performance of these rigs, do you see any material difference between the rigs built several years ago versus those being built at -- recently?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Waqar, this is John. The Flex 3s were the first AC driver rig we built, of course, in 2002. We built 32. Those 32 have continued to receive upgrades and learnings that we've had over the years that we then put into what we would call maybe the second-generation Flex 3, if you think about it in those terms. So if you look at performance in the field, there isn't a difference in the performance in the field. We've upgraded operating systems. We've added equipment that we didn't have on originally in 2002, like hydraulic catwalks as an example. We didn't have hydraulic catwalks then. We didn't have casing, running tools back in that timeframe. And like I said, we've had software improvements, and then just the monitoring that we're able to do. So the others -- there's really not any material difference in performance. But we're also, of course, building different rigs today than we did then. We didn't have Flex 5s then. We didn't have Flex 4s. And those rigs have, of course, targeted certain market segments that the Flex 3 wasn't aimed at. So -- but again, those 21 rigs that are stacked, again, another way to think about it, as I've already said, 1/2 of those worked, but they're also spread across 8 to 10 different basins. So you don't have a large -- it's not like you have a whole lot of rigs just hanging around that are waiting to go to work. There's still demand out there. We're continuing to bid those rigs. We're continuing to have interest from customers for those rigs.

Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Great. Another question, like if you find a need, what would it take for you to convert a normal FlexRig into like -- into a skid system rig? How much would it cost?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Well, the Flex 3s, we continue to do that. I mean, we continue to have customers asking us to add the pad system to the Flex 3s, and probably an average number is around $1 million to do that.

Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. And is there any downtime associated with that change?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Well, there's an installation process during -- that happens on a rig move. A lot of it's done offline, but there's a 1 day or 2 day period of time that you're having to do some welding that you wouldn't want to do during the well.

Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. So bottom line, any rig that you have right now, AC system, could be converted into a pad-type drilling rig with an investment of about $1 million and 1 day of downtime, is that fair?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

The rigs that are not pad application rigs right now, which would be Flex 3. Of course, Flex 4Ss and Flex 5s are original design pad rigs. So yes, the Flex 3s can be upgraded. We're continuing to upgrade. I don't have the exact number, Waqar, but we've probably had between 15 and 20 upgraded over the last 6 months or so, I mean, something like that. So yes, it's going to -- it has continued, and I think it will continue.

Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. Now secondly, in terms of this whole debate about a walking system versus a skidding system, let's take hypothetically that if customers start to ask for a walking system, do you have a design that you could put on a rig?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

We have -- it's interesting. Again, as Hans alluded to, these systems have been in existence since the '70s. And over the years, we've made conscious decisions, and then our -- really, our customers helped us make conscious decisions in '04, and then again in 2005 and 2006, and that's why we have the systems that we have. So yes, if we had a customer that said, "Hey, we really want walking systems. It's a better application for this particular well configuration," then sure, we could do it. It's not rocket science. It's something that we can add to it. But we just really haven't had demand from our customers dip. They've been satisfied with the systems that we've had.

Waqar Syed - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. And the 3,000-horsepower rig that you're building for Colombia, how much more expensive would it be versus your current rigs that you're building for the U.S. market, the 1,500-horsepower rigs?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I don't know that we're prepared to talk about that right now, Waqar. I mean, it's a much larger rig, so it's going to be more expensive. It also has camp. It also has multiple tubular strings. It's not a -- you don't go out with just 5-inch string of pipe, you've got multiple tubular strings, and as well as BOPs. So it's really not a fair comparison. But what I will say is that our returns, our expectations from that perspective, it's going to be in line with what our expectations have been with FlexRigs.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Josh Lingsch with Simmons & Company. Josh C. Lingsch - Simmons & Company International, Research Division: Very helpful data points as it pertains to rig efficiency, especially as -- with respect to footage per day and wells ordered per year. I'm curious on a leading-edge basis, where we have up today, how much further do you anticipate from those moving maybe throughout -- using just year-end as a benchmark?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst

Josh, this is John. I want to make sure that I understand your question. So you're asking what additional efficiencies can we capture from this point to the end of the year? Josh C. Lingsch - Simmons & Company International, Research Division: Yes, yes, exactly. Just the data points you offered earlier, footage per day and...

John W. Lindsay

Analyst

Well, yes, it's really hard to quantify that. I mean, obviously, when you get to the point of reaching a technical limit of how fast the well can be drilled, then you're performance improvement, that's as good as it gets. But we're referencing are averages, and so I would comment that we -- I think we still have an opportunity to improve the average well cycle times closer and closer to the best in class or the technical limit. But as far as how quickly we get there, I'm not really certain. I mean, the last couple years, we've seen in a ballpark range -- and again, it's area-dependent. I'm giving an average over all of our rigs working in all the basins. Some areas, there's more low-hanging fruit than others. Some areas are -- have gotten a lot closer to technical limit. So I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if there's not another 5% to 10% that we could see this year. But again, there's a lot of factors involved in that. It's kind of a guess at this point. Josh C. Lingsch - Simmons & Company International, Research Division: Okay. And then switching gears a little bit, just a point of clarification on your guidance for International Land. The daily cash margins are expected to be down 10% to 15%. Now it's off of the adjusted cash margin rate when excluding early termination payments, right?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst

Right. That's correct.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Tom Curran with Wells Fargo.

Thomas Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Maybe a different way of approaching what I sense has been, obviously, one of the hottest topics on this call, and apologies if you've already answered either of these questions. But the first is, of the current AC drive idle rigs, what percentage of those have a skidding system?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

We're looking at that -- let's see here. Well, probably, I would answer, probably 25%. I think that's probably a good -- Aaron [ph] would you agree? So that's about 25%.

Thomas Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Okay. And then the upfront term new build contracts you just inked for 2 rigs, which model or models are they for?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

The first one we talked about's a FlexRig3, and it is going to the Permian, and it has a skid system. And the other is a FlexRig 5, which, by design, is a pad drilling rig, and it's going to Colorado, to the Niobrara.

Thomas Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Okay. And then in the conversations you're currently having, John, regarding the rigs on term that are scheduled to be rolling off contract over the balance of the year, in any of those cases, is the customer, in any way, hinting at potentially wanting to replace a rig that has a skidding system with one that has a walking system?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Tom, not to my knowledge. I've talked -- obviously, this has been a hot topic, and so I have talked to customers. I've talked to several customers. I've had customers in our office over the last couple of weeks, working on various things, and that's one of the questions that I've asked. And I've not had anyone say, "Oh no, you guys are missing the boat here. You need to be looking at walking systems." So I'm not aware of that. It's -- obviously, it's possible, but I'm not aware of it.

Thomas Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Okay, and then last one for me. Turning internationally, could you just give us an update on Argentina and the latest flow out of that market with regards to potential opportunities either to put one or more of your currently idle rigs back to work or even deploy additional, I would think, AC drive FlexRig models into that market?

John W. Lindsay

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Well, we have been successful in putting rigs back to work in Argentina. And we don't have contracts inked, but we feel like the 3 rigs that are stacked, we think it's possible, and those are all larger conventional rigs. We think more than likely a couple of those will go back to work. I don't know whether it will be third quarter or -- more likely it'd be fourth quarter. And -- but I think they will. We have 1 Flex 3 working in Argentina in that unconventional shale play. And I think that there's possibilities for more, but we don't have anything on the horizon right now. The rig's doing a great job. I've been very pleased. Customer has been very pleased. And again, I'm not too surprised, and they're doing a little bit of science-type work, trying to understand more about the reservoir, but I think the rig's performed very well.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Brad Lundy with Ivory Capital.

Bradley M. Lundy - Ivory Investment Management, L.P.

Analyst · Ivory Capital.

Had a quick question. On your last call, you spoke about an increased level of focus to return capital to shareholders. Can you, I guess, provide us with a little more detail as to when the board is expected to come to a decision regarding capital deployment positions?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Ivory Capital.

Well, Brad, I said earlier that the last date we took that up was in December, and we don't have a set time. We'll meet in June and then again in September. We don't have a set time of, hey, we're going to solve for this over this next meeting or the next 2 meetings. I think that the take away, though, is that we're very engaged in the topic, and I think the board is supportive. And so I think that we'll continue to put the time and effort to that issue. And so it's hard for me to tell you today what actual meeting date that will be taken up.

Bradley M. Lundy - Ivory Investment Management, L.P.

Analyst · Ivory Capital.

Got you. And in the meetings, since the December dividend increase, I guess, trying to understand why the board hasn't taken action to reevaluate the dividend and capital structure. Has that not come up, or it's focused for later in the year?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Ivory Capital.

Oh no, as we've talked, it's come up, and so I don't think it's been a matter of, hey, let's take a pass on this. It's been a matter of -- we took, I think, a nice positive step in December. We have said since then that we recognize there's additional headroom and that we'll continue to move in that direction. So it's really, I think, a matter of timing and moving forward. It's not a matter of, well, we looked at this and decided not to.

Bradley M. Lundy - Ivory Investment Management, L.P.

Analyst · Ivory Capital.

Perfect. I mean, you guys have certainly done a tremendous job on the operating front over the course of the last several years. But despite that, the stock seems to have been relatively stagnant over the 1.5 years. I would certainly ascribe a material portion of that underperformance to the S&P, to the current capital structure and payout ratio. But we'd love to get your thoughts on what is the appropriate capital structure and payout ratio or what the proposals are to the board at this time.

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst · Ivory Capital.

Well, no, I know you're keen on that, and I think, for us, it's -- we have said that, certainly, we've got a great balance sheet that could take additional debt on. And we also have the nice occurrence of being able to generate significant free cash flow going forward under our modeling, and we expect to do that, and that will be solved for by returning that to shareholders in terms of the portion we're not using to continue to grow the business. So it's a nice -- I know it's not what the speed you would like, but to us, it's a nice situation of being able to continue to grow the company. At the same time, you're able to positively look at returning additional capital back to your share owners.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Stuart Lippe with RBC Global Asset Management. Stuart Adam Lippe - RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.: You mentioned that you said 95% of the drilling -- of your activity right now is oil drilling. Does that mean -- there must be a lot of gas being found with some of that. But I guess the question I have is, do you remember what price gas was at when you really had -- when gas, let's say, was half the drilling activity? And is it --is there a certain threshold do you think that would start stimulating a lot more gas drilling independent of the oil drilling? And that -- would that be in different fields that are currently being drilled right now?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst

Yes, it's a great question because I think part of the positive go forward is when customers are at a price threshold where they're willing to go back and add to their dry gas-directed rig count because, like you said, that combination of oil and liquids-rich drilling takes up 95% of what we're focused on. So that would be an incremental add to have additional dry gas-directed drilling. And so we've lived through some difficult times recently and seen gas, I think at one point, it dipped underneath the $2 threshold. So everyone was just -- a lot of gnashing of teeth. But now that we're above $4, people are starting to talk about exactly what you're asking about. We don't think it's necessarily a 2013 event, but what we would hope is that we continue to see some take-up on the demand side. And you've got this very low gas-directed count, so that's going to, I think, set up for some potential opportunities in '14 to put rigs back to work that are looking for dry gas. Stuart Adam Lippe - RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.: Why not '13? Is that -- I mean, why wouldn't, let's say, $4.50 or $5 gas get things going this year?

Hans Christian Helmerich

Analyst

Yes, well, I think there's certainly some basins and projects where the economics work at the prices we have today. Oftentimes, there's a little bit of a lag effect between you hit a certain price point and it takes some time. And I guess part of it is a sanity check of, hey, we're going to stay here for a while, or is it going to continue to move up; and then part of it is take the Haynesville. You've moved some rigs out of the Haynesville. What does it take to motivate you to go back. But that's just one example, there are other examples where it wouldn't take that much effort. But kind of the history of it has been that the industry typically goes through kind of this pause as they verify that this is a price deck that's going to stay in place for some time, and then they start going to work.

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions in queue.

Juan Pablo Tardio

Analyst

All right. Well, thank you very much, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Have a good day.