Kevin Kim
Analyst · D.A. Davidson
Thank you, Julianna. Moving on to the outlook on Slide 15. Our pending transaction with Territorial Bancorp is expected to close by year-end 2024 and does not impact our fourth quarter 2024 outlook.
In terms of our fourth quarter 2024 outlook, relative to the fourth quarter 2023 actuals, we have the following updates. Fourth quarter to fourth quarter, we still expect average loans to grow at a percentage rate in the low single digits, up from $14.05 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. In terms of net interest income, we utilized the current implied forward interest rate curve in our baseline. Therefore, we are factoring in 1 Fed fund's target rate cut of 25 basis points in September. This compares with 5 Fed fund's target rate cuts implied by the forward curve in January of 2024.
Accordingly, we now expect net interest income for the fourth quarter of '24 to decline between 5% and 7% from $126 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. This includes the net impact of the payoff of the bank term funding program, which contributed a positive $4 million to our net interest income in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Year-to-date, secondary market premiums for SBA loan sales have improved, and we are likely to resume SBA loan sale activity with a small volume in the second quarter. Fourth quarter to fourth quarter, we still continue to expect operating expenses to decrease by over 5% from $85 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Our outlook translates into positive operating leverage when comparing the fourth quarter of 2024 with the fourth quarter of 2023 with the decrease in expenses plus the gains from the resumption of SBA sales exceeding net interest income pressure.
Finally, in our 2024 outlook, we continue to assume an essentially stable coverage ratio of allowance for credit losses to loans which was 116 basis points of loans as of March 31, 2024, and 115 basis points of loans as of December 31, 2023.
With that, I will proceed to discuss our pending merger with Territorial Bancorp and switch to the transaction-related slide deck available on our Investor Relations website. Beginning with Slide 3 of the merger presentation, the transaction with Territorial Bancorp is strategically compelling and financially attractive, bringing together 2 culturally aligned organizations. I reviewed the key highlights in my opening remarks and will now review some of the details.
The aggregate consideration of $79 million based on the closing price of April 26, 2024, is equivalent to 31% of Territorial's December 31 tangible book value. The exchange ratio is fixed at 0.8048 Hope shares per Territorial share. The estimated earn-back period for Hope's tangible book value dilution is approximately 3 years. we expect the transaction to be immediately accretive to earnings after the close at a double-digit percentage growth rate. No capital raise will be needed to complete the transaction, and the combined company will have strong capital and capital ratios to support growth after the close.
On Slide 4, we provide a closer look at Territorial Bancorp. Headquartered in Honolulu, Hawai'i, Territorial Savings Bank has the fifth largest market share in the state, operating 28 branches on the island of Oahu, Maui, Kauai and Hawai'i. With $2.2 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2023, Territorial had gross loans of $1.3 billion and total deposits of $1.6 billion.
Territorial has very strong capital and its tangible common equity ratio was over 11% as of December 30, 2023. Territorial's asset quality is excellent and nonperforming assets represented just 10 basis points of total assets at the end of the year. 97% of Territorial's loan portfolio are residential mortgages, which have a low weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 63%.
On Slide 5, we show the pro forma loans and deposits of the combined company. You can see that the transaction accelerates the prudent diversification of our loan portfolio with Territorial's contribution more than doubling Hope's residential mortgage loans to approximately 15% of total loans outstanding of the combined company. Pro forma, Hawai'i will become the combined company's third largest market in terms of deposits by state.
On Slide 6, we highlight territorials low-cost, stable and granular core deposit base. The cost of total deposits was 1.61% as of December 31, 2023, and 1.2%, excluding public funds deposits. The average account size is $30,000 and the median account size is a little over $4,000. 73% of Territorial's deposit balances excluding public funds are from accounts equal to or less than $250,000 in size. 93% of the non-CD deposit balances at Territorial are from consumer accounts.
Slide 7 recaps the financial details of the transaction, which I have already covered in my remarks, but are presented here for your easy reference. The merger will require the approvals of regulators, the approval of Territorial's shareholders and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. Moving on to Slide 8.
Upon completion of the transaction, we intend to continue operating in Hawai'i under the Territorial Savings Bank brand. With any merger cultural integration is a very important aspect that must be addressed with great care. We are pleased that Hope and Territorial organizations share similar corporate and cultural values that emphasize a strong commitment to employees, customers and the communities that we serve. We look forward to building on the long-standing legacy and positive impact that the Territorial franchise has made to the Hawai'i market.
We have a deeply experienced Board and management team with proven histories of successfully completing and integrating M&A transactions with diverse business models. We fully expect to have a smooth and seamless integration process which will enable us to quickly begin realizing the benefits of this combination for our shareholders, our customers and our employees.
With this transaction, we are taking another strong and purposeful step to fortifying the long-term growth prospects of Hope Bancorp and ensure the success of the franchise for many, many years to come.
With that, operator, please open up the call for questions.