Owen Kratz
Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tony. The visibility related to the impact of falling oil prices on our business seems to have improved from what we saw going into the first quarter. It has improved to the point where we feel comfortable in providing your best estimates in quantifying what earnings might look like for 2015. Going into the year, we knew that our customers' reaction to the decline in oil prices was going to be severe. However, at that time, we could not quantify the risk of how much work would be canceled or deferred, whether vessel contracts would be terminated or renewed, the extent that we could react with cost in spending reductions and what our ability to fill gaps created by short notice project cancellations might be. We did guide the Q1 would most likely be similar to Q4 of 2014. Operationally that turned out to be the case. However, we did have some positive financial impacts from the items we previously mentioned here that resulted in a stronger quarter than the Q4 of 2014. We also now have a better feel for Q2 and Q3 to the point where we can provide 2015 guidance in the range of $200 million to $240 million of EBITDA for the year, a caveat being that we are uncertain yet as to what Q4 might actually be. The fourth quarter is historically difficult to forecast due to winter seasonality factors and this is made more unpredictable due to the current market conditions. On a more granular level, I can report that, one, we have either absorbed the impact of the short notice project cancellation we faced at the beginning of the year, or we have been able to fill the gaps in the schedule. Two, our longer term contracts for our major assets including Q4000, Q5000 and the two vessels for Brazil are in place and appear for now to be secure. Third, we have been effective in reducing our SG&A and continue to identify areas where we can – we have potential for reducing the supply chain costs further. Four, we have been able to reduce our forecast for 2015 capital spending from over $400 million to an estimated $360 million. Looking forward, we have a better feel now for how customers are looking at 2015, but we can't give any certainty as to the likely duration of this down cycle or what 2016 and beyond will look like. For now, it's too early to say whether we are at bottom or not. On the dry dock front, 2015 will be a major year for us with dry docks on the Q4000, H534 as well as an extended refurbishment of the Seawell. Our dry dock schedule for 2016 should be lighter. Our people on the Robotics side of the company have done well to scramble and fill the utilization gaps in the Robotics fleet schedule. However, the construction market from which we derived a significant portion of our utilization is still in the process of working off backlog. We are somewhat concerned that filling out utilization will be a continuing challenge for our Robotics group. Although over recent years the group has done well to diversify into non-oil and gas markets which should help us. And the group will also have opportunity to reduce the size of the Robotics vessel fleet over time as our staggered charter schedule rolls over should that become necessary. We are also in discussions to extend the delivery of the Q7000 into 2017 with the result that capital obligations for 2016 would be greatly reduced. We have already negotiated the deferred delivery of the Grand Canyon III. These moves will allow us to more closely align capital commitments with cash flow preserving our strong liquidity position. In addition, we are set to close the project financing for the Q5000 as mentioned upon its delivery in the next few weeks and this will add to our liquidity position. We are feeling a tad more comfortable now than we did during our Q4 conference call. While near term contracted rigs at low rates do have an impact on us, longer term we are seeing that the industry for greater efficiency intervention continues and interest in rig alternative methods remain. The potential threat of older rigs being converted into intervention vessels that some were concerned about is less of an issue now as we see a greater number of older rigs being scheduled for salvage or long-term stacking. We also note that the rumor and talk from potential competitors about new build intervention vessels coming to the market has gone away. Some scheduled builds have been canceled or may never be completed. All in all Helix is in good financial shape today. And we should occupy even better competitive position going forward. We are about as pleased as we can expect to be given the current cyclical market conditions. Now, we have the opportunity to plan for how to make the best as we emerge from the cycle. And with that, I will turn it back over to Terrence, for closing remarks or questions.