Tobias Hestler
Analyst · Rashad Kawan, Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Sonya, and good morning, everyone. Let me first start with our third quarter highlights. As you have seen from our release this morning, we had a good third quarter with 5% organic revenue growth, split 6.6% price and a 1.6% decline in volume/mix. This performance was underpinned by continued share gains across our business. Across the quarter, growth was driven by a number of categories, including continued strength in both Oral Health and Pain Relief, and it's encouraging to see VMS being back to growth. Respiratory also had a good quarter, with normal seasonal cold and flu sell-in. Digestive Health saw good consumption growth, but our results were negatively impacted by one-off inventory movements from some U.S. retailers. The latter was the primary driver with the volume/mix decline in Q3. Equally important, we saw continued good operating leverage, with inflationary cost pressures more than offset by price inefficiencies across the business, resulting in operating margin expansion of 90 basis points. On the back of today's strong numbers, I'm pleased to reiterate that we remain firmly on track to meet our full year guidance to grow organic revenues by 7% to 8% and operating profit 9% to 11% in constant currency, resulting in margin expansion. Finally, it's worth highlighting that we closed the sale of Lamisil in the last couple of days, earlier than we expected. You will recall that we announced the sale of the brand with our half year results. This demonstrates our commitment to optimize the portfolio to active brand management. Now turning to our third quarter results. Revenue of GBP 2.8 billion reflected 5% organic revenue growth. Adjusted operating profit was up 8.8% in constant currency, resulting in a 24.6% margin, up 90 basis points constant currency. As expected, the adverse impact of FX was most pronounced in the third quarter due to year-on-year strength in sterling against the U.S. dollar and the movement in a number of emerging market currencies, which negatively impacted margin and actual rates. Looking at the drivers of revenue growth in more detail. We delivered 5% organic sales growth comprising 6.6% price and a 1.6% decline in volume/mix. Pricing in the quarter included some incremental price as well as the carryover of pricing taken over the last 12 months. As I have said previously, we will continue to take price as needed, and we remain confident in our ability to do so given the strength of our innovation and brands and market positions, albeit moving forward, this will be at a lower level than seen so far this year. In Q3, we also had a 1 point benefit from high-inflation economies, Türkiye and Argentina. We saw continued volume/mix growth in APAC in our Oral Health business, although overall, this was offset by 2 factors: one, the anticipated decline in Emergen-C, where the category has reverted towards pre-pandemic level, which has now stabilized; and two, one-off retailer inventory stock adjustments in Digestive Health in North America. Here, we had an inventory build last year following a temporary supply shortage, which we have now lapsed, and we saw some U.S. retailers reduce their inventory this year. Importantly, consumption in Digested Health continues to see good growth. Including both these impacts, volume/mix would have been flat across the group, and I would expect improved volume/mix in the fourth quarter compared with what we have reported for Q3 today. Turning now to our performance across the categories. Looking at the quarter, I was particularly pleased that Oral Health revenues grew 9% with healthy growth in price and volume mix. Sensodyne was up double digit, underpinned by consumer share gains benefiting from innovation and strong growth across a number of markets, including India, Japan, as well as good performance in the U.S. VMS is back in growth with continued strong performance of Centrum, which more than offset the expected decline in Emergen-C. The double-digit revenue growth of Centrum was driven by positive price and volume/mix, helped by geographical expansion and activation in a number of markets. Pain Relief also delivered good revenue growth, up 6%, with Panadol driven by strength in the Middle East and Africa, and Voltaren growth underpinned by performance in Europe from new innovations. Advil declined mid-single digits, largely due to more competitive market conditions. Respiratory revenue was up 4% with strong growth in Theraflu and Robitussin from selling ahead of the cold and flu season, which more than offset both the lower out-of-season use of cold and flu products and a decline in Flonase following a weak allergy season. Altogether, this demonstrates the strength and the diversity of our portfolio, delivering 5% organic growth for the group. Let me now move to look at geographic segment performance. Looking across the regions, we saw slightly differing trends from one region to another, with strong growth across EMEA and Latin America and Asia Pacific and a slight decline in North America. Our emerging markets saw 11% growth, which included the benefit from pricing taken in high-inflation economies. Emerging markets made up 1/3 of our revenues and included double-digit growth in India and broad-based growth in other emerging markets. Developed markets grew 2%. Looking at each region in more detail, starting with North America. Organic revenue declined 1.5%, with a 2.6% price increase and a 4.1% decline in volume/mix. As I mentioned earlier, the decline in volume/mix largely reflected 2 factors: first, a one-off reduction in Digestive Health brand inventories from retailer stocking movements; and second, the expected decline in Emergen-C. Excluding those 2 impacts, volume/mix would have been slightly positive. Across the categories, we saw mid-single-digit growth in Oral Health led by Sensodyne, underpinned by consumption and new innovations, including Pronamel Active Shield. VMS increased low single digits, with strong performance of Centrum that more than offset the decline in Emergen-C, where demand has now stabilized. Centrum benefited from the activation of cognitive function claims on Centrum Silver and the launch of our prenatal blends. Pain Relief declined mid-single digits, driven by Advil. Respiratory Health was down low single digits, with growth in cold and flu offset by a decline in allergy products due to weak season, resulting in inventories being run down to normalized levels. Finally, Digestive Health and Others fell mid-single digit, largely due to a double-digit fall in Digestive Health revenue, as I've already explained. Turning to Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Organic revenue increased 10.8%, split 12.7% price and a 1.9% decline in volume/mix. As you will recall, this region is the most exposed to higher inflation economies, Türkiye and Argentina, which had a 3% impact on organic growth. The decline in volume/mix was driven by Latin America, where volumes declined double digit from weakness in Colombia and Mexico, which was more than offset by strong pricing. Looking across the segment, we had strong growth in Middle East and Africa, helped by Panadol. In Europe, revenue was up mid-single digits with broad-based growth, including strong results in Germany. Across the categories, Oral Health saw double-digit growth, largely driven by Sensodyne and Denture Care. We're seeing good consumer uptake for a number of brand innovations, including parodontax Active Gum Repair. In VMS, the region saw a low single-digit decline driven by some Local Brands. [indiscernible] was up strongly, helped by continued activation and strong execution in markets across the region. Pain Relief revenue was up double digit, reflecting strong growth in Panadol and a number of successful campaigns featuring our specialist ranges and growth in Voltaren. Respiratory sales increased in the mid-single-digit range, driven by price and the sell-in of cold and flu products ahead of the season. We continue to drive innovation in this category and recently launched Otrivin Nasal Mist, which delivers an improved consumer experience through both comfort, ergonomics and efficacy. Digestive Health and Others saw sales up double digits with good growth across most of our brands. Finally, turning to Asia Pacific. Organic revenue increased 5.9%, with 2.9% from price and 3% from volume/mix. China, our second-largest market overall, was up mid-single digits after a very strong first half following the easing of COVID-related lockdown restrictions, moving China up mid-teens for the 9 months. Elsewhere, India grew double digits, and Australia and New Zealand was up low single digit. Within the categories, Oral Health saw high single-digit growth, underpinned by strong growth in Sensodyne, particularly in India, Japan and China. In VMS, we saw low single-digit growth helped by successful consumer campaigns for Centrum, partly offset by declining Caltrate. In Pain Relief, Voltaren saw strong growth, particularly in China and Australia. As expected, Pain Relief revenues declined after extraordinary strong growth in China during the first half, and we have ensured inventories have returned to a more normalized level. Respiratory revenues were up double digit, driven by strong growth in Theraflu. Turning now to adjusted operating performance. Adjusted operating profit was up 9% constant currency, driven by positive operating leverage. Looking at the bridge in more detail. Stand-alone costs were GBP 10 million lower than last year as we run down our TSAs with GSK. I'm pleased to report strong execution with pricing and efficiencies offsetting inflationary cost pressures and negative volume, resulting in positive operating leverage. Importantly, [ we ensured ] continued investments in consumer-facing A&P, which grew ahead of organic growth. Finally, as expected, there was a GBP 100 million or 140 basis point headwind from material movements in foreign exchange on a translational basis, which particularly impacted the quarter. All put together, this resulted in a 5% decline in adjusted operating profit at actual exchange rate and a 24.6% margin. As a reminder, Q3 is typically our higher-margin quarter in the year given advanced sales of cold and flu products ahead of the season. This takes our year-to-date adjusted operating profit constant currency growth to 9% and a margin of 23%, up 10 basis points constant currency. As I mentioned earlier, we're pleased to reiterate our confidence in our full year outlook. We continue to expect to achieve organic sales growth of between 7% and 8%. We see another year of positive operating leverage and expect the adjusted operating profit to grow between 9% and 11% constant currency. This will therefore result in adjusted operating margin expansion on a constant currency basis. So to sum it up. Haleon has delivered a strong third quarter performance, demonstrating the strength and diversity of our portfolio and execution across our markets. We delivered 9% adjusted operating profit growth at constant currency and strong positive operating leverage across the business. As such, we have reiterated our full year guidance. Given the momentum across the business in what remains a challenging market environment, we remain confident of delivering on our medium-term guidance, as we stated in this morning's results release. With that, I would like to hand back to the operator to open up for questions.