Jordan Wu
Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is now open
Thank you, Jackie. We are mindful that 2017 was actually a year of micro -- of macro uncertainty, marked by currency fluctuations and the risk of China’s slowdown. However, looking into the new year, we believe our overall financial performance will be resilient to the potential macro headwinds. Particularly, following many years of R&D and investment, various areas of our non-driver IC businesses may start to contribute significantly to our overall financials. Before we detail the prospect for our driver and non-driver businesses in 2017, we thought it is important that we update this year’s CapEx plan as its scale will be unprecedented in our history. Being a fabless company in our -- for our IC business, we’ve typically had a low annual CapEx, as in the case of the last two years, $10 million in 2015 and $7.9 million in 2016. The regular CapEx is primarily for the investment of design tools and testing equipment for our IC design business. This year’s CapEx plan were, however, include the construction of a new building, which we’ve announced before, and an increase of our WLO capacity, on top of the regular CapEx. The new building, located nearby our current headquarters, will house the next generation LCOS and WLO production lines and provide the extra office space that is desperately needed as we already has to take up sizable leases outside to cope with the current office space shortage. The progress of the new building construction is in line with our plan as we’ve completed the design stage and are moving on to construction stage as we speak. More specifically, we’ve budgeted $50 million to $55 million CapEx for the new office/fab construction in 2017, covering land, building, facilities and clean rooms. The new building will be completed and ready for personnel and equipment move-in by early 2018. The CapEx budget for 2018 for the new building is around $10 million. Now let me move on to talk about the increase of our WLO capacity. To meet the strong demand of new customers for our WLO technology, we’re accelerating our WLO capacity expansion. Rather than waiting for the new building to complete, we’re now investing around $25 million in new WLO capacity during the first half of 2017, to be located in the existing headquarter building by retrofitting certain areas for the new equipment. If everything goes as planned, we will see revenue and bottom-line contributions from the new WLO investment starting the second half of 2017. The CapEx budget for 2017 and the dividend for the year of 2016 will be funded through our internal resources and banking facilities. With that, I will now provide our first quarter guidance, followed by a more detailed outlook. The first quarter is traditionally the bottom of the year in terms of sales, because it has fewer working days due to the Chinese New Year. The scale 5.6 earthquake that struck Tainan in early February also somehow impacted some of our customers’ productions and therefore our driver IC shipments. We expect the first quarter revenues to be down 18% to 25% sequentially. Gross margin is expected to be around 23% to 24% depending on our final product mix. GAAP earnings attributable to shareholders are expected to be in the range of $0.5 to $0.02 per diluted ADS based on 172.4 million outstanding ADS. In providing the above earnings guidance, we have assumed a 16.5% income tax rate for 2017, calculated based on exchange rate of NTD31 against the USD, which is also the exchange rate as of beginning of February this year. Now let me provide you with some details behind our guidance and trends that we see developing in our businesses. During 2017, we expect our large panel driver IC business will continue to benefit from continued increase of 4K TV penetration and, starting the second half of 2017, Chinese panel customers’ ramping of a brand new Gen 8.5 and another Gen 8.6 fab. However, first quarter will see mid teen’s sequential decline in our large panel driver IC revenue due to fewer working days in China and Taiwan and phase-out of certain customers’ old models. Despite the temporary slowdown, our leadership in this segment stays strong. In our previous earnings call, we mentioned that our large panel customers are increasingly demanding a total solution from IC vendors in addition to their constant request for better IC solutions to support their high-end and high-resolution products. We believe our technology strength and total solution capability are significant differentiators against most of our competitors and will further solidify our leading position as Chinese customers continue to expand their capacity and the industry further upgrades to 8K TVs. We are one of the pioneers in product development of 8K TVs with our Chinese and Korean panel customers and have already shipped small volume to a leading Korean panel maker. The other segment within our driver business is ICs used in small and medium-sized panels for applications including smartphones, tablets and automotives. First quarter sales for smartphones are likely to decline by close to 45% sequentially on weak market, seasonality, customers’ inventory adjustment for HD720 driver IC and less addressable market for smartphones using pure TFT-LCD drivers due to higher TDDI adoption rate. Compared to overall market, HD720 accounted for a relatively high percentage of our total smartphone driver IC shipment in 2016. Due to the panel supply shortage, most notably in the HD720 segment, in the second half of last year, some of our Chinese customers pulled in excess inventory of HD720 driver ICs and panels. Many of them have therefore substantially slowed down their new panel purchases in the first quarter. After customers’ seasonal inventory adjustment, we expect the smartphone driver IC momentum to recover sequentially in the second quarter. We are mindful of the trend that higher in-cell panel and TDDI adoption rate will reduce the addressable market for smartphones using traditional TFT-LCD driver ICs. We are confident that our TDDI solutions and business will pick up soon. We will elaborate on this in the non-driver IC business discussion a bit later. On the AMOLED front, we've been collaborating closely with leading panel makers across China for AMOLED product development. With fewer competitors and higher barrier of entry, we believe AMOLED driver ICs will be one of the long-term growth engines for our small panel driver IC business. Among driver ICs used in small and medium-sized panels, the best-performing category in recent years has been automotives. We expect the category’s Q1 revenue to be down high-single-digits sequentially and grow more than 15% year-over-year. With leading market share and numerous Tier 1 automotive brands as our indirect end customers, we've successfully engaged all key panel manufacturers and module houses worldwide for long-term partnerships and secured many of their key projects pipelined for the next few years. To address the growing demand of larger automotive displays with higher resolution and built-in on-cell or in-cell touch screen features, we continue to develop advanced solutions to enable new automotive display applications and provide our customers with the most comprehensive and state-of-the-art solutions in the industry. As such, we’re well positioned to take advantage of the growing automotive display market and anticipates the strong growth will likely continue into the next few years. However, our driver ICs used in tablets will decline close to 40% sequentially for slow season. Overall, we expect the small and medium-sized driver IC segment to decrease sequentially by around 30% in the first quarter. Now for the non-driver IC business segments, we anticipate near-term headwinds as we mentioned in the previous earnings call and expect about high teen’s sequential decline in our non-driver revenues for the first quarter. Sales of CMOS image sensors will deliver strong growth in the first quarter, but those of WLO, LCOS micro displays and touch panel controllers will decline sequentially. I will now highlight some of the non-driver product areas. First off, the touch panel controller product line. On top of several projects entering volume shipment featuring our on-cell solution, we continue to secure new design-wins from Chinese smartphone brand customers for their 2017 models. We’ve also seen significant traction in customer adoption and design-wins of our discrete touch solutions to break into several leading Chinese and international end brand customers with new models to enter mass production from the first quarter of this year. On TDDI, we’re seeing rapid adoption of in-cell displays among smartphone brand customers for their new generation mid-to-high end models recently and expects TDDI to continue to expand in the smartphone and tablet market in the next few years. We’ve comprehensive design-in activities with Korean, Chinese and Taiwanese panel and end product customers. We’re also aggressively developing new products and strengthening our team to expand our product portfolio and roadmap. With very comprehensive joint development engagements covering many leading panel makers, we’re confident that we can leverage our long-standing and widespread relationships with panel makers to increase our market share in TDDI. TDDI is a major long-term growth engine for our small panel business and will contribute to our business starting the second half of this year. I will now turn to the LCOS product line. As we warned in the last earnings call, we expect our LCOS sales to decline in the first quarter, as well as over the next few quarters of this year, because one of our leading AR device customers decided to reduce shipments of their current generation device to a minimum, and instead, to focus on the development of future generation devices which we’re still a critical part of. While the revenue of LCOS may subside over the next few quarters, they will come from a much more diversified customer base this year. Quite a few of our other customers are expected to launch their AR products starting this year, although we’re still uncertain of their volume potential given that they are still early generation products. Having invested in related technologies for over 15 years, we’re uniquely positioned as the provider of choice for micro display and related optics, both of which critical enablers to AR devices. With little competition, we’re currently working with over 30 customers on various current and future generation AR devices using LCOS micro display. Our increasing design engagements cover not just leading tech companies, but also niche AR players which bring in innovative product ideas. Switching gear to WLO. As in the case of LCOS, that we just mentioned, we expect the near-term business prospect to be affected by the reduced shipment of a major AR customer. However, we continue to partner with numerous industry leading companies using our cutting edge and industry-dominant WLO technology. In addition to AR application, our WLO technology is adopted by our customers to enable new things such as 3D depth scanning and machine vision, which can in turn be used in a variety of industries such as consumer, industrial, IoT, AI, medical, automotive, military and surveillance. Our customer base for this business is extremely diversified, covering numerous major tech names throughout the world, many of which leading end brand players or semiconductor platform solution providers. Himax is one of the very few players in the market with WLO technology and the one possessing the best mass production proven track record with expertise ranging from design and high yield production to cost and quality controls. We are very happy with our current development and business progress in this area. As mentioned earlier, given the aforementioned exciting growth opportunities, we’re accelerating our WLO capacity expansion to meet strong customer demand in the near-term. Earlier in 2016, we decided to switch our strategy of the LCOS -- of the CIS business to focus on smart sensor and machine vision segments, as opposed to the traditional human vision sensors. We’ve launched two smart sensor product lines, i.e., near infrared or NIR sensor and Always-on-Sensor. We continues to make great business progress with these two smart sensor products. In addition to close collaboration and intensive development activities with certain heavyweight partners and customers, our smart sensors have garnered lots of customers’ interests during the recent demonstrations at CES and the Japan Auto Expo. By combining a NIR sensor and a structured light projector consisting of a laser diode and DOE with collimator fabricated using our WLO technology, we’re offering the most effective 3D depth scanning total solution with the industry’s smallest form factor to enable easy integration into next generation smartphones and other consumer electronics devices such as AR/VR. We’re targeting to work with our partners to have the structured light 3D depth scanning total solution embedded in next-generation partner smartphones in 2017. We also attracted heavyweight potential customers’ interest following the recent press release of our NIR sensor for its outstanding technical performance. With regards to our AoS product, the sensor can be bundled with our WLO lens to support super low power computer vision to enable new applications across a very wide variety of industries. After recent demonstrations at CES and the Japan Auto Expo, our AoS has gained significant customer interests, especially in smart home, industrial IoT and surveillance applications. In a recent joint press release with CEVA Inc. and Emza Visual Sense Ltd., we announced the industry’s first intelligent always-on visual sensor specifically designed to overcome the power and cost constraints of vision processing for IoT applications. The ultra-low power, always-on vision sensor is a powerful solution capable of detecting, tracking and recognizing its environment in an extremely efficient manner using a few milliwatts of power. As our long-term goal is to provide complete solutions for always-on computer vision applications, we decided to form a strategic alliance with Emza, a Israeli company dedicated to developing extremely efficient machine vision algorithms that enable smart IoT visual sensors. We will report business developments in these new territories in due course. Lastly, for the traditional human vision segments, we maintain a leading position in laptop applications and expect mass production of several design wins for notebooks and increased shipments for multimedia applications such as surveillance, drones, home appliances, and consumer electronics, among others, during the first quarter. In summary, we’re seeing weak seasonality and market demand in the driver IC business, which will lead to sequential revenue decline in the first quarter. We also expect our gross margin to be under pressure in the short-term due to continuous pricing pressure and less favorable product mix of driver IC products, lower revenues from high-margin AR/VR related businesses and lower NRE income. Nevertheless, after many years of R&D and product development, we may see significant business progress in our non-driver business to contribute to both top and bottom lines out of WLO and CIS related areas as early as the second half of 2017. Thank you for your interest in Himax. We are now ready to take questions.