Jordan Wu
Analyst · Craig-Hallum. Your line is open
Thank you, Jackie. The increasing momentum of our large panel driver IC sales will continue to come from China and the world’s accelerating 4K TV adoption. Our smartphone driver IC business has rebounded well this year, reflecting our leading position in Chinese smartphone market where our end brand customers are performing strongly, and better demand are stimulated by rising 4G adoption. Leveraging on our technology leader and early mover advantage in AMOLED driver and pure in-cell TDDI technology, we are well positioned to benefit from increasing adoption of AMOLED and pure in-cell displays. For non-driver products, the true highlight of the year will be LCOS microdisplay and WLO products, which are integral parts of the ecosystem for the booming AR sector. During the first three quarters of the year, LCOS and WLO combined will grow more than ten times through accelerating shipment to our existing AR customers. We are also making good progress in new territories such as IoT and machine vision with our CIS and WLO products, evidenced by more design-ins and engagements with leading consumer electronic brands and a leading international smartphone chipset maker. Overall, we are seeing strong momentum across all our major product lines and feel very good about the growth prospects of 2016 and beyond. With that, I will now provide our third quarter guidance, followed by a more detailed outlook. For the third quarter of 2016, we expect revenues to be up 5% to 10% sequentially. Gross margin is expected to be flat to slightly down sequentially, depending on our final product mix. GAAP earnings attributable to shareholders are expected to be in the range of 6 to 8 cents per diluted ADS based on $172.4 million outstanding ADSs. Non-GAAP earnings attributable to shareholders are expected to be in the range of 10 to 12 cents per diluted ADS based on the same number of outstanding ADSs. As we have done in the past, our third quarter GAAP earnings per diluted ADS guidance has taken into account our expected 2016 grant of restricted share units, or RSUs, to our team at the end of September. The 2016 RSUs, subject to our Board approval, is now assumed to be around $11.5 million, of which around $8.1 million or 4 cents per diluted ADS, will be vested and expensed immediately on September 30th, the grant date. In comparison, the 2015 RSUs totaled $5 million, out of which $4.5 million or 2 cents per diluted ADS, was vested immediately. The grant of RSUs would lead to higher third quarter GAAP operating expenses compared to the other quarters of the year. In providing the above earnings guidance, we have assumed a 13.5% income tax rate for 2016, calculated based on exchange rate of NTD 31.4 against the USD, the exchange rate as of the beginning of August. Now, let me provide some details behind our guidance and trends that we see developing in our businesses. For reasons mentioned earlier, our large panel driver IC sales and market share have further increased this year. We expect our large panel IC revenue to grow by double digit sequentially and more than 50% year-over-year. In addition to benefiting from our leading market share in China and in 4K TV, we are also leading the charge in new technology areas such as 8K TV by working with our Chinese and Korean panel customers. The other segment in our driver business is ICs used in small and medium-sized panels for applications including smartphones, tablets and automotive. Demand for driver ICs for smartphone has remained strong, but our sales in this area will likely just stay flat sequentially in Q3, as we can hardly make enough delivery for the surging rush orders of late from Chinese and Korean end customers. However, it will still grow around 20% year-over-year. We also continue to see resolution upgrade in the second half of the year, which should help mitigate some gross margin pressure for the product segment. On AMOLED, demand has taken off as smartphone brand customers increasingly adopt AMOLED panels in their premium models. This trend has prompted more panel makers to ramp up their investments in AMOLED manufacturing and accelerate their timetable for the mass production of AMOLED panels. We have been collaborating closely with multiple panel customers across China, Korea and Japan for AMOLED product development and are seeing more design-ins especially with key Chinese and Japanese panel customers and smartphone makers. Such progress reaffirms our technology leadership. We believe that AMOLED driver IC will kick off a new growth cycle for our small panel driver IC business starting 2017. Automotive has been the best-performing category among driver ICs used in small and medium-sized panels in recent years. We expects the category’s Q3 revenue to grow double digit sequentially and more than 30% year-over-year. The strong growth will likely continue into the next few years. Our confidence comes from the fact that higher resolution and larger panel sizes are becoming mainstream for automotive. With numerous top automobile brands having been our indirect end customers, we are well positioned to take advantage of this fast growing market. Further, our driver ICs used in tablets resumed growth in the first half and will continue to produce noteworthy growth in the second half of the year, driven by the strength of high-resolution displays of 10-inch and above. Overall, we expect small and medium-sized driver IC segment in the third quarter to be up by high-single-digit sequentially. For the past few years, the non-driver business segment has been our most exciting growth area and a differentiator for Himax. New product developments continue to evolve and gain traction, and we remain positive on the long-term growth prospect of our non-driver businesses. We expect high-single-digit growth in our non-driver products for the third quarter. Sales of timing controller, touch panel controller, ASIC chip, wafer level optics and LCOS microdisplay will deliver strong growth this year, partially offset by lower sales of the CMOS image sensors. I will now highlight some of the non-driver product lines. Numerous on-cell design wins from leading Chinese smartphone names have led to growing sales of our touch panel controller in Q2 and we expect the growth to further accelerate throughout the rest of 2016. We are also one of the pioneers in offering TDDI solutions and are in partnerships with essentially all of the display makers in the state-of-the-art pure in-cell touch panel for joint technological development. The volume shipment record from a leading Chinese smartphone customer validates our leading position as a pioneer. We are adding more design wins and will start shipping in mass production of our TDDI solutions to additional Chinese and Korean smartphone customers and panel makers in the second half of 2016. Along with AMOLED driver ICs, TDDI is another major growth engine for our small panel business starting from 2017. I will now turn to the LCOS and WLO product lines and AR/VR, their key applications. The recent staggering success of Pokémon Go has provided a looking glass into the future trajectory of the AR technology and given one early answer for why and how you’d want it to. Since its launch just over a month ago, the AR game has taken the digital world by storm with already more than 100 million app downloads and 20 million active users. Thanks to the viral popularity of Pokémon Go, AR is now getting the attention and consumer validation that we, at Himax, has always known to be possible. While we must give credit where it is due, the AR technology used by Pokémon Go today is actually still quite primitive. Compared to the AR/MR technologies being developed by our customers and partners, Pokémon Go pales in comparison in terms of how AR can bring alive the consumer experience to interact directly with the physical environment with more sophisticated holographic imagery, 3D sensing and real-time surroundings detection. If you have not seen demonstrations of AR devices already, its holographic imagery will actually appear on your desk, your chair or walking next to you on the street. Moreover, the world of AR is much more than just gaming. It represents a next generation computing platform. Future versions of the technology will cover both commercial and consumer uses and will be much more sophisticated and produce an endless stream of uses. These could include daily computing in a virtual office, social networking, teleconferencing, et cetera. Due to the eye-opening effect of Pokémon Go, those who thought AR required several more years to gain traction are now changing their models as the game, almost overnight, elevated AR to mass-market and added 10s of billions of dollars to its market potential in the next few years. A new and lucrative marketing tool on top of AR software and applications are being created that will catapult AR device development and intensify further investment in the sector. We believe the path Pokémon Go started will prompt an AR industry that most didn’t think possible before. Having invested in related technologies for over 15 years, we are uniquely positioned as the provider of choice for microdisplay and related optics, both critical enablers to the AR device. With little competition, we continue to work with 30 plus new and existing customers for various AR devices, many of which you have seen news from lately. Our design engagements now cover leading companies in a wide variety of industries such as software, gaming, search, mobile, social media, military, automotive, wearable, and toy. Many of our customers have committed huge amounts of R&D and capital to capture the rapidly expanding future of this game changing product category. We expect revenues and shipments of our LCOS and WLO to continue to accelerate during the second half of this year. Further new launches of AR products from more customers, as well as increasing shipment of existing customers, could greatly lift our sales further of these two product areas during 2017. With little new capital investment, we will be able to substantially enlarge our output to meet additional demands through de-bottlenecking and continuous yield improvement. Looking beyond 2017, however, we will need further capacity for our LCOS and WLO products to address the strong demand anticipated out of the very busy design-in activities that we’re having right now. We are pleased to report that we have just kick-started our expansion plan for next generation LCOS and WLO production lines. Backed upon our customers' demands and feedbacks, the expansion plan includes a major increase of new capacity based upon state-of-the-art processes largely developed from within. The new production lines will not only offer far better cost and product quality for mass production, it is also a major technology advancement for very high end products of the future. The total investment is now budgeted to be $80 million to $100 million for monthly capacities of 3,000 12-inch wafer input for LCOS and 6,000 8-inch equivalent mother glass input for WLO. The actually output volume can vary widely, depending on the size of the chips. For LCOS, a 12-inch wafer can yield between 80 to 1,500 chips on our existing product designs, while for WLO, an 8-inch mother glass can produce as many as thousands of chips or as few as less than ten. The scheduled mass production is end of 2017 to early 2018. The new capacity will be located at a newly acquired land, adjacent to our in Tainan, which is 5 hectares in size, some 1.6 times the size of our current headquarters. The investment will be financed through our internal resources and existing bank facilities. The current plan only uses around 20% of the land. We will therefore still have plenty of room for future expansion. We have also reserved sufficient space in the building for customers’ future consignment needs. Part of our existing WLO equipment was purchased by our customer and consigned to us. To sum up, the next generation expansion will substantially enlarge our existing capacity and lift our technology to another level, thereby further strengthening our leadership position in the AR sector worldwide. We believes this is just the beginning of a very long term growth story. Of note about LCOS and WLO, they enjoy better margin compared to our corporate average. The margin will be further lifted with new designs from a more diversified customer base and, in particular, the commencement of the new fabs’ mass production. We expect the expansion project will enjoy a phenomenal return on investment in the years to come. Now, for AR applications. We have been developing customized driver chips for next generation OLED panels with two top-notch VR players. We expects mass production to start in late 2016 to early 2017. Additionally, we have started to engage with certain VR customers to develop their AR devices. Last but not least, we continue to make good progress in two new smart sensor areas, which we announced earlier by collaborating with certain heavyweight partners, including leading consumer electronics brands and a leading international smartphone chipset maker. By pairing a DOE integrated WLO laser diode collimator with a near infrared CIS, we are offering the most effective total solution for 3D sensing and detection in the smallest form factor, which can be easily integrated into next generation smartphones, AR/VR devices and consumer electronics. Similarly, the ultra-low-power QVGA CMOS image sensor can also be bundled with our WLO module to support super low power computer vision to enable new applications across mobile devices, consumer electronics, surveillance, drones, IoT and artificial intelligence. We will report the business developments in these new territories in due course. Regarding other CIS products, we maintain a leading position in laptop application and will increase shipments for multimedia applications. And that will conclude our non-driver business discussion. Thank you for interest in Himax. We are now ready to take questions.