Gregory Hazelton
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead
Thanks Connie. Overall, Hawaii's economy remains healthy and continues to grow, although the pace of growth is moderating. Hawaii's tourism industry is significant driver of the state's economy, should strength in 2018 with visitors spending more time in making more purchases in our islands than in the prior year. In 2018, visitor arrivals were up 5.9% and expenditures were up 6.8%. We did see a slight dip in the expenditures at the end of the year with a monthly 3.5% decline in December compared to the December in 2017. Hawaii still maintains one of the nation's lowest unemployment rates. Unemployment in December was 2.5%, significantly below the national rate of 3.9%. Hawaii real estate fundamentals remain strong. While sales volumes declined from the prior year by 7.7% for single family homes and 2.5% for condos, median prices continued to rise with increases on Oahu of 4.6% for single family homes and 3.7% for condos. While the economies rate of expansion has slowed as the business cycle has matured, continued growth is still expected. Turning to our financial results, slide six shows HEI's net income for the full year and fourth quarter. As Connie noted earlier in 2018, we had strong consolidated financial performance with both operating companies contributing to our reported results. Going from left to right on this slide consolidated GAAP net income for the full year was $201.8 million in 2018 relative to $165.3 million for 2017, a 22% increase. As you may remember in the fourth quarter of 2017, we had $14.2 million of adjustments across the consolidated companies due to certain one-time impacts from federal tax reform. After adjusting for these non-core impacts, 2017 core net income was 175 -- $179.5 million. There were no non-core adjustments to our 2018 net income. Full year earnings normalized for one-time from 2017 tax reform impacts grew by $22.3 million or 12%. Net income grew at both the utility and bank combined with a higher holding company and other segment net loss that was primarily driven by lower tax benefits on holding company expenses due to tax reform as well as higher interest in compensation expenses, partially offset by earnings contributions by Pacific Current. Fourth quarter net income was up 7% over the same quarter of last year, reflecting headwinds at the utility experienced late in the year, partially offset by strong Q4 performance at American Savings Bank. Pacific Current which is included in the holding company and other segment contributed positively to net income and operating cash flow modestly offsetting some of the holding company expenses and/or investment in the new enterprise. For 2018 GAAP earnings per share were $1.85 compared to $1.52 in 2017. Excluding one-time federal tax reform impact of $0.13 per share in 2017, core earnings per share were $1.65 as core net income grew by $0.20 per share. Through our holding company structures and stable earnings we are able to grow a bank dividend -- excuse me, because of growing bank dividend and practically no dilution in 2018, net income growth of 22% translated into EPS growth of 22% on a GAAP basis and 12% for each on a core business. As shown on the right side of the slide, HEI's consolidated ROE for 2018 was 9.5% compared to 2017 GAAP ROE of 7.9% and core 2017 ROE of 8.6%. The higher 2018 ROE reflects strong earnings growth at the bank and improved earnings at the utility. Notably management achieved utility ROE improvement despite a lower utility allowed ROE after our latest rate case increases of 9.5% compared to the prior 9.8% allowed. On a core basis, the 50 basis point increase despite -- with despite a loss of 30 basis points in allowed reflects an 80 basis point net improvement. Turning to slide eight, utility net income was $144 million in 2018 compared to 2017 GAAP net income of $120 million and core net income which excludes the one-time impact of tax reform of $129 million. Our utility 2018 net income contributed to EPS of $1.32 per share, $0.01 below our utility guidance range of $1.33 to $1.46. As Connie mentioned one-time events in the fourth quarter including penalties on our reliability PIM impacted net income late in the year and as a result utility income was lower than expected. On an after-tax basis, the most significant net income drivers were $57 million higher net revenues from the resetting of base rates through the rate case cycle and RAM and NPI recovery mechanisms; $5 million from our pool licensing and operating agreements with Hawaii Telcom, resulting in attachment fees including interest and the release of reserves after the settlement of receivables from Hawaii Telcom; $37 million of higher O&M expenses compared to 2017, primarily due to the reset of pension costs for the first time in six years as part of our rate case decisions, the write-off of project cost incurred during the merger period related to smart grid planning and the evaluating LNG imports, higher cost for preventative maintenance on underground circuits to ensure reliability, generating station operation and maintenance and workers' compensation claims, and $2 million higher net income from net tax adjustments, largely related to favorable adjustments made in connection with the filing of the 2017 tax return, which was partially offset by the difference between the reduction to revenue requirement to return expected tax reform benefits to customers, which exceeded the actual 2018 savings realized. Turning to slide nine, American had record earnings for 2018, with a 23% increase in reported net income. Bank net income for the year was $82.5 million, compared to $67 million in the prior year, which included a $1 million net positive impact of tax reform. Excluding the impact of tax reform adjustments, 2017 bank net income was $66 million. As noted on our third quarter call, we expected ASP to come in at the high end of guidance, which the bank exceeded, reporting EPS of $0.76 per share, $0.02 above our guidance range of $0.68 to $0.74 per share. Strong management performance and lower tax rates contributed to a very good year. The most significant after-tax drivers of the increase from 2017 were: $14 million higher net interest income, driven by growth in as well as higher yields on interest-earning assets, resulting from an improved interest rate environment; $3 million higher provision for loan losses, reflecting additional loan loss reserves for the consumer loan portfolio; the year-over-year increase in the provision for loan losses was primarily due to additional loan loss reserves for the consumer loan portfolio, which were partially offset by releases of reserves in the commercial and commercial real estate portfolios, as a result of improved credit quality and the pay-off of a criticized commercial real estate construction loan in the fourth quarter of 2018. $4 million lower non-interest income, primarily due to lower debit card interchange fees, due to new accounting standard that reclassified $4.2 million of debit card expenses in 2018 to non-interest income; and $1 million increase in non-interest expense, primarily due to higher compensation and benefit expenses due to the bank's decision to increase the entry salary for employees as well as annual merit increases, partially offset by the reclassification of the debit card expenses I just described. Turning to slide 10, American's solid profitability in 2018 showed through with both higher return on assets and increased return on equity. We achieved a return on assets of 125 basis points for the fourth quarter of 2018, exceeding our third quarter return on assets of 122 basis points and/or 110 basis point threshold for the year. Our annual average return on assets was 120 basis points for 2018. We manage our capital efficiently to optimize return on average equity, while maintaining a well-capitalized threshold for the bank. Fourth quarter of 2018, we achieved a return on average equity of just over 14%, compared to 13.8% in the linked-quarter, For the full year 2018 achieved 13.5% return on equity, 2.3% above 2017, and comparing favorably to the 2018 of peer medium of 10.3%. On slide 11, American's net interest margin has continued to strengthen and continues to perform well against our high-performing peers and Hawaii-based peers. Net interest margin grew by 3.83% for the full year 2018, compared to 3.69% in 2017 as well as the high end of our guidance range at 3.7% to 3.8%. For the fourth quarter of 2018, net interest margin was 3.95% compared to 3.81% in the linked quarter and 3.68% in the fourth quarter of 2017 with the improvement, primarily attributable to higher yields on interest earning assets and continued low cost deposits. We continue to effectively grow earning assets within our loan and investments portfolios to improve net interest income. Net interest margin in the fourth quarter was supported by lower premium amortization within our investment portfolio. Normalizing our FAS 91 amortization to the previous quarters in 2018, our margin would've been 3.87% for the fourth quarter. Our interest earning asset yields increased over the linked-quarter to 4.22%. We've maintained our low cost fund -- our low funding costs in the rising interest rate environment and continue to benefit from our disciplined approach and focus on relationship banking. Our cost of funds was 28 basis points in the fourth quarter just two basis points above the linked-quarter and well below that of peers. On slide 12, total loans were $4.8 billion as of December 31, up 3.7% annualized from December 31, 2017, with retail loans up $130 million, or 3.9% reflecting Americans disciplined approach towards growing the loan portfolio. Total deposits grew $6.2 billion at December 31, 2018, an increase of $268 million, or 4.6% from December 31, 2017. Net interest income increased 8% over the prior year to $242.7 million driven by growth in interest earning assets and the improved interest rate environment. Fourth quarter 2018 net interest income was also higher at $63.4 million compared to $61.1 million in the linked-quarter and $57 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. Non-interest income for 2018 was $56.1 million compared to $61.6 million in 2017. And fourth quarter 2018 non-interest income was $13.5 million compared to $15.3 million in the linked quarter and $15 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The lower non-interest income for the year was primarily due to lower debit card interchange fees as a result of a new accounting standard that reclassified $4.2 million of debit card expenses in 2018 from non-interest expense to non-interest income. On slide 13, credit quality remains sound due to prudent risk management and healthy Hawaii economy. The credit quality of our residential portfolio remains very strong and our commercial and commercial real estate portfolios are stable with improving trends. Provision for loan losses reflected additional reserves for the consumer loan portfolio, partially offset by the release of reserves due to improved credit quality in other portfolios. In the fourth quarter, there was a significant payoff of a criticized commercial real estate construction loan which led to a lower than expected provision. Allowance for loan losses of $52 million was 1.08% of outstanding loans at year-end compared to 1.14% in the linked quarter and 1.15% in the prior year. Non-accrual loans as a percentage of total loans receivable held for investment was 0.056% compared to 0.59% at the end of the linked quarter and 0.51% at the end of the year. Our net charge-off ratio increased to 34 basis points for the full year compared to 27 basis points in 2017, driven by the personal unsecured loan portfolio which remains profitable. The net charge-off ratio for the fourth quarter was 37 basis points versus 40 basis points for the linked quarter and 26 basis points for the fourth quarter of the prior year. The improvement over the linked quarter reflects American's adjustments to the parameters of its personal unsecured loan portfolio as it seasons as well as management's strategy to improve its collections process. American's asset and funding mix shown on the left side of slide 14 remains attractive relative to peers. A 100% of our loan portfolio was funded with low cost core deposits versus the aggregate of our peer banks at 72%. The average cost of funds was 25 basis points for the full year 2018, nearly 60 basis points better than the peer median. Turning to slide 15, efficiency improvement has been a key focus of management and the bank has delivered consistent results in strengthening its efficiency ratio. American achieved an efficiency ratio of 59.5% for the fourth quarter of 2018 and 59.4% for the full year, a meaningful improvement about 220 basis points over the prior year and compared to 2015 -- American's 2018 efficiency ratio was 550 basis points better. Efficiency remains a key focus moving forward with the bank management targeting about 100 basis points of efficiency ratio improvement per year over the next three years. Turning now to our expectations for future performance starting with our utility CapEx forecast, utility modestly exceeded its 20 -- its revised 2018 CapEx target investing $411 million for the year. Building on that result, in 2019, we forecast $400 million of CapEx, largely driven by two battery storage projects and Phase 1 of our Grid Modernization initiative, both of which still require commission approval, as well as baseline projects to improve reliability and resilience and help integrate more renewable and distributed energy. In 2020 and 2021, we expect to invest between $400 million and $500 million per year. CapEx in any given year can, of course, vary depending on the timeliness of PUC approvals and permitting, as well as community and other stakeholder engagement processes. Importantly, with improved financial results the Utility is expected to be able to self-fund its forecasted CapEx through our 2021 planning period through retained earnings and its access to the debt capital markets. On slide 17, our financing outlook for 2019 reflects our strengthened financial condition. The bank which has long been self-funding has increased its dividend to HEI as its earnings have improved. In 2018 ASBs dividend to the holding company increased 33% to $50 million. And in 2019, we expect the dividend to increase 20% to $60 million. Utility is able to self-fund its investment needs for capital expenditure programs, while HEI will continue to ensure that the utility has sufficient access to equity capital necessary to meet its capital needs and maintain an investment grade capital structure. While the improved cash distributions from the bank and utility, we do not anticipate the need to issue any external equity in 2019. Outside of other attractive or accretive investment opportunities not currently included in our plan. In addition, the improved outlook for earnings and cash flow has allowed us to grow the HEI dividend, while continuing to manage our capital structure and maintain our investment-grade ratings. Turning to slide 18, we are initiating HEI's 2019 consolidated earnings guidance of $1.85 to $2.05 per share consisting of $1.40 to $1.47 at the utility and $0.79 to $0.85 at the bank. Our 2019 utility guidance assumes no change to our major regulatory recovery mechanisms and no material impacts from performance, incentive, penalty -- from a performance, incentive, penalties or rewards. It includes an approximately $8 million net income impact from continued customer benefit adjustments from the latest Hawaiian Electric and Maui Electric rate case decisions and a schedule detailing those customer benefit adjustments can be found in our -- in the appendix. Utility guidance also reflects management's focused on O&M efficiency with O&M excluding pension and one-time items that impacted 2018 projected to increase 1% or below inflation. Our 2019 bank guidance range reflects American's ongoing focus on efficiency and a disciplined approach to growth with continued strength in net interest margin and low to mid-single-digit earning asset growth. Note the embedded -- embedded in our guidance for ASB is a one-time net positive impact of $0.03 to $0.05 per share in 2019, reflecting the anticipated gain on sale of two facilities, the bank is selling as it relocates to its new campus, offset by cost the bank will incur this year as it moves into its new space. While Pacific Current remains an important and promising part of our overall strategy, we do not expect it to contribute meaningfully to 2019 earnings given the early stage of the company and as manage -- as the management team further develops the platform plans and pursues new project opportunities. I would note that we anticipate no new equity to be issued from HEI from 2019. Also a comment regarding our dividend increase. Our policy dividend payout range is 60% to 65% while maintaining investment grade capital structure and rating. Further dividend growth is subject to the board approval and in consideration with other accretive investment opportunities. I’ll turn it over to Connie for her closing remarks.