Brian Coleman
Analyst · Canaccord. Please proceed.
Well, we always look at the stockpile that it's a one-time event. Once the stockpile is sold, it's gone. And back to the current year, we do believe that the 40% overall reduction or 30% further from where we were last year does create a drawdown on that stockpile. Does it use up all that stockpile or not in the 2024 year, that's the difficult thing to predict. So you have that particular element. But then as it relates to the refrigerant management rule, and again, depending on how the final rule comes out, once we start to get into a situation where there's a mandate for the use of reclaimed, then we believe there is a potential departure of pricing or refrigerants, irrespective of reclaimed or virgin. And that possibly reclaimed, because it will have a demand, maybe in a position to be priced slightly higher. Certainly, from an environmental footprint point of view, reclaimed is more valuable than virgin if you want to measure an ESG component to this. Because under the American Carbon Registry, reclaimed refrigerants have about one-tenth the carbon footprint. So if you want to calculate that delta and put a value on carbon, you could certainly put a value, and reclaimed refrigerants should be priced higher as well. So part of the calculus to redetermine when we expect to be able to achieve, for example, a $400 million revenue target goes back to, in some respects, how the EPA implements that refrigerant management rule. Now one of the things that we suggested doesn't mean that the EPA will do it, but they did offer a comment, is to initiate the reclaim mandates earlier, but start at a lower percentage. So the way the proposed rule was constructed, the EPA started with 100% reclaimed demand use in 2028. We suggest it start in 2025 and work your way up to that 100%, as an example. So when we see the final rule, we'll then be able to evaluate how we think the reclaim side of our business model, which is the most profitable side. Generally, our gross margin or our profit profile on the sale of a pound of reclaimed is twice as great as compared to virgin. How that will help impact our profitability and revenue growth.