Earnings Labs

The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 29, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Keith, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to hand the program over to Christina Zamarro, Goodyear's Vice President, Investor Relations.

Christina Zamarro - Vice President, Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Keith. And thank you, everyone, for joining us for Goodyear's second quarter 2015 earnings call. Joining me today are Rich Kramer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Laura Thompson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, there are a few items we need to cover. To begin, the supporting slide presentation for today's call can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com, and a replay of this call will be available later today. Replay instructions were included in our earnings release issued earlier this morning. If I could now draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on slide two, I would like to remind participants on today's call that our presentation includes some forward-looking statements about Goodyear's future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments today. The most significant factors that could affect future results are outlined in Goodyear's filings with the SEC and in our earnings release. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Our financial results are presented on a GAAP basis and, in some cases, a non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP financial measures discussed on the call are reconciled to the U.S. GAAP equivalent as part of the appendix to the slide presentation. And, with that, I will now turn the call over to Rich. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Christina. And good morning, everyone. This morning, I will review highlights from our outstanding second quarter, provide an update on how the macroeconomics in our regions are affecting our business, and give my perspective on our business for the remainder of the year. Laura will follow with a financial review of…

Operator

Operator

We can take our first question from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning. Congrats on the quarter. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Ryan. Good morning. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Ryan. Good morning.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Great. So just I'm trying to think about how to model North America for the balance of the year after the strong 2Q? I think it's important to understand what's happening with price to mix – price mix to raws. So the first question is, can you break that out for North America now like I think, you will in your Q? And then, secondly, can you comment even directionally on how you expect North America price mix to track in 3Q or 2H compared to 2Q or 1H? An agenda with sort of on again, off again preliminary tariffs in the first half being replaced with now permanent duties in the back half that pricing independent of raws pass through could be stronger, do you agree with that directionally? And then regarding raws, should this too potentially get better at least in 3Q, given your FIFO accounting and the fact that prices seem to have bottomed about kind of one and a half quarters prior to 3Q, which I think is roughly consistent with your traditional lag between spot prices and impact to the P&L? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So, yeah, Ryan, we'll try to tag team. You had a lot of questions there. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah,

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Go ahead. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I guess, first thing is, we don't break out the difference between price mix and we're not going to start doing that as we go ahead. But I think as you look at where we're at, obviously we're very pleased with the results of the business. And as you think about Q2 and first half and then roll into the second half, I think the first thing that I would say is, what we're seeing is our goal of creating a business that can deliver sustainable value, sustainable results over the long term and the decisions that we've taken in the past around our fixed costs, around efficiency, around business choices, around our new product portfolio, around innovation, around putting a focus on the consumer and driving our strategy – those three elements of our strategy with the right team, you're seeing that take route and really delivering in this quarter, and I would suggest it's been delivering over the last number of quarters, number of years. So, as we think about second half, I think that underlying business model certainly will continue. We also got the benefit now, as you know, we've got lower gas prices; we've got better unemployment; we see miles driven being up, I think 15 reported periods in a row, that means more tread rubbers is being burned on the roads. We see a stronger OE business in the U.S., sort of the $17 million SAR and the work we did on our – getting on the right fitments is certain paying dividends as well. So as we look into second half, I think some of that momentum will certainly still be there. As we look at what we said earlier in the…

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

No. It definitely helps. Thank you. Just one follow-up though. On the price mix to raws, did you not beat the 2Q guidance? Was it for $20 million to $50 million comes in $107 million, so that's a $57 million improvement. And then it seems that slide 12 is saying there is actually no change though to the full year except for Venezuela. So why not an improvement to the full year, is it because the spot prices kind of ticked up a little bit through the quarter or what – how to think about that? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. So, no doubt. For price mix – I'm sorry, so for price mix for the second quarter our guide was $25 million to $50 million. When we back out Venezuela in the actual results for the second quarter, you will see that about half of that is Venezuela, and therefore we're at the very high end or so, right, of our $25 million to $50 million range as we go.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Yeah. You're right, that makes perfect sense. And just final question just basically on slide 22, looks like one of the biggest improvements there was to commercial replacement in North America, which I think is disproportionally profitable for you, right? So, you talked about in your prepared remarks some of the freight industries that you look at and we can see too (39:32). But, can you talk about maybe what you think is driving the underlying improvement in freight or what not and the sustainability of that? Thank you. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Ryan, I think it's just the general economic lift that we're seeing in a broad sense. I mean, I know our U.S. economy is not hitting on all cylinders but it certainly improved, and I think there's certainly some pent-up demand out there that's going over the roads. In addition, the OE business is very strong as well as truck builds. I know you guys do or your colleagues follow the trucking industry, you know what the boards look like in terms of new truck build. So, there is a market, I think a favorable market out there in terms of freight and in terms of demand for trucks and consequently demand for tires. We also have built our business around not just, and I think this is really the most important thing I can say, it's not just about tires, it's about the whole fleet services solutions that we bring. And I think particularly, in an environment, where there's more trucks on the road, being a full-service fleet provider, meaning new tires, retreads and ability to get truckers up and running when they have issues on the road and providing tires that have the fuel economy that really Laura mentioned in her remarks, can save trucking companies money on fuel. It's that whole value proposition I would suggest you that drives our business results. And that's important because that model will also be beneficial to us when the industry is not as strong as it is right now. So that really is, I would tell you the underlying strength that we have. And I would say very proudly, I think we have the best business model in North America by far.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks. Congrats again. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Rod.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Good morning. Congratulations. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Couple things. First, on the guidance, you're guiding the 10% to 15% SOI growth, I presume that's off the $1.7 billion last year. So that's like a $170 million to $256 million. All those items that you provided the price versus raws, the costs FX in EMEA and that's about $220 million. And if you had volume growth of 1% to 2%, that might be $25 million to $50 million. So all together you've got about $245 million to $270 million based on that. So what do we need to think about to net down to that $170 million to $256 million? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I mean, Rod, we're trying to give guidance as best we see what's happening in the world today. I mentioned in my remarks that when we put our plan together, clearly a lot of things have changed and our job is to try to deliver the results that we set. So as we look at what's happening over the course of the second half of the year, we've got risk on currency in Europe with the euro; we've got the winter markets that we still have to work our way through. Does it snow, when does it snow in Europe? We get the recession in Brazil to deal within a bit of a slowdown in China. So, there are a lot of different things that we have to work our way through. What our guidance is intended to do is to be less of a point estimate, but to give you a view of how we see what we need to deliver over the course of the second half.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. That makes sense. And also just kind of a housekeeping thing. Typically, the difference between SOI and operating income, your corporate overhead is $35 million to $40 million, this quarter it was $56 million. Is that an unusually high number or is that a run rate that we should be thinking about going forward? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right. So, it is a run rate I'd say using going forward. We were a little higher in this quarter. We had our intercompany profit elimination as we moved tires around the world, some corporate incentive plans and so on moving around. But, similar to 2014, each quarter there are ups and downs in it, but on average we're still projecting to come out between $30 million and $35 million a quarter.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay, great. And then just two other things kind of market share questions. So, in North America, the RMA was up 4.8%, your replacement volume was up, it was up 1%. But, presumably, the Asian imports would be doing less well. So maybe could you talk a little bit about what's happening here market share-wise? Is the new Kelly product expected to kind of fill a gap that's outperforming? And then in Europe you explained the market share issue there with Eastern Europe and Western Europe, but it's a bit surprising that you're implementing a price increase even though raw material costs are down. So, in Europe, is it basically just staying disciplined on pricing and just foregoing that volume growth? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So, Rod, from a North America's perceptive, I think the market is up because you had non-Chinese imports come in mostly at the low end of the market again and that's not as you know a place where we play, so that's really what drove that market. As I've said in the past, we're sticking to our strategy, we're not just pursuing volume for volume sake, we're pursuing those parts of the market where we can create value for ourselves and for our customers, and that's what we're doing. A lot of that bump comes at the low end. And exactly as you said, I think you hit it exactly right with the Kelly Edge, with the Douglas Power line and the Kelly Power line with another Assurance tire we're putting in, we're taking that HVA technology as we said in one of our megatrends a number of years ago, bringing that down into the mid-tier where we can get value for the Kelly name and for The Goodyear…

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Great. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take the next question from Itay Michaeli with Citi. Please go ahead.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone and congrats. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Itay. Thank you. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead

So maybe I'll turn to China and thanks for the detail on slide 16. Can you just remind us what you're assuming for China in the full year guidance maybe volume-wise and how to think about sensitivities there if that market were to get materially worse? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So, Itay, I think it's a good question and maybe I'll just start, I'll take a step back by saying, we have what we feel is an excellent business in China. We've been there a long time since 1994 actually, and our business model there is largely focused in the premium/HVA part of the market. We have low LVA-type tires that we make and sell over there. So we have a very good business mix. And we supply that by and large with one of our most technologically advanced and really best-performing factories in Polandian (48:20), where we have capacity of about 11 million consumer tires and about 0.5 million truck tires there. So we've been there a long time, we've seen the bumps in the road and where we get that. As we look at our business, we still think China will be a growth market over the long term. Today, it's about – the industry is about a 50-50 split between OE and replacement. And remember that's really different than the rest of the world, there are mature markets. When we describe our company, we say about 30% OE, 70% replacement. China is a little bit different as that market matures and as cars get put on the road. So as you think about our business there, it's a little bit different mix and obviously there's a little bit different margin change, 50-50 versus 30-70 in terms of how we think about…

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead

That's very helpful, Rich. And then maybe just a second question on just the full year SOI guidance of 10% to 15%. I mean, it sounds like that your second half outlook with respect to the European winter situation, China we just talked about, is fairly conservative and you clearly are trying to embed some of these potential risks in your guidance. So with that, is there any bias in the SOI range at this point, high-end, midpoint, low-end, given some of these risks? And if not, maybe just talk about what some of the few things that can go right versus wrong in the second half of the year in your modeling? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I don't think there is a bias in there. There's a lot of volatility in global markets. And as I mentioned, I think you've seen this as well in a lot of the companies you are covering is the world changed versus all of our planning cycles a while ago and we've got to react to it, and that's what we're doing. So there is really no bias in there, other than sort of putting the gloves on every day and figuring out what we need to do to deliver the results. In terms of headwinds, I won't repeat them. I think you actually touched on and, again, those are the things that we have to deal with. In terms of things going right, I would tell you we're focused on executing our strategy, our key how to's, and getting value for our brands, and making more of the right products and delivering them both in – well, really in all our markets. I was going to say in Europe and North America in particular where we have still demand for those HVA products. But Itay, that's our focus to make those customers that we have who want more of our product happier customers by getting it to them. And if we do that, that's going to have goodness all around.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead

Terrific. Thanks so much. Congrats, again. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs. David J. Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning and congrats on the quarter. Just a couple of questions on our end, as we look at regional margins, I think it's probably hitting on Brinkman's questions from earlier, but North America was quite strong at about 16%. Wondering your thoughts into the back half, is that sustainable or do you see some slight compression sequentially in the third quarter because of the aforementioned increases in spot prices of raw materials? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, David, I think I'd just – I think I'd refer you back to Laura's comments where she said that we had originally – in our original planning assumptions that second half of the year, we'd see stronger results because of the price mix equation. But also I'd just kind of remind you that the way raw material flows, remember, we're about six months from – I think about six months from date of purchase till the time it hits into our P&L, particularly for our raw materials. So lower spot prices today will turn up in our P&L down the road – sort of six months down the road. So I'd just remind you we have that lag in our – particularly in our North American business, Europe as well. Asia, obviously, is a little bit different as their proximity to the source of those raw materials, they see that flow-through much, much quicker. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No doubt. David J. Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Understood. I think that's fair. And then just moving on to EMEA. As I look at last year third quarter, you…

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Brett Hoselton with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Good morning, Rich, Laura, Christina. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Brett. How are you? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, good morning.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

I'm very well. First of all, you obviously didn't change your price mix versus raw materials with the exception of Venezuela. But I was hoping you could just broadly talk about pricing trends in the different regions: North America, Europe, Asia and South America. What are you seeing? I mean, again, you haven't really changed your guidance per se, but are you seeing any acceleration, de-acceleration, any differences relative to your expectations in terms of direction? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So, Brett, as you can appreciate, we can't speak on or comment on pricing specifically. And as you know, we think about our pricing, not just the price itself, but the value we try to bring to the market. The brand that we bring, which brings customers to dealer stores, the products, the innovation we have in them, the customer service that we bring, the promotions that we put out in the market, all those things go into how we think about our price versus just the raw material or a cost input. So while I can't speak specifically on price, maybe I can just give you a little bit of flavor of some of the things happening in our regions. And I will start with EMEA, and really I'll be a bit repetitive here and say, I think it was Rod who mentioned that we had a price increase in the second quarter and that really was reflective of the fact that our raw materials are dollar-based. And as the euro weakens, it makes our costs go up, and I think that's a headwind that we have to deal with as we think about Europe. As we go to Asia, also there, as raw material prices change, they move quicker through our P&L,…

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Changing gears, how do we think about your increased emphasis, let's say on the Kelly brand relative to your longstanding strategy of kind of moving towards higher value-added, higher margin tires and so forth. I mean, is this kind of an opportunistic move relative to the recent tariff introduction, or should we think about it differently? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I think, Brett, I'd make two points to you. One, if you go back to when we introduced the MegaTrends, I mean, we don't go back and talk about those as such. But if you remember, we said that the trend would be the HVA or bigger rim diameter, a more complex constructed tires, better rolling resistance, so on and so forth would migrate to the mid-tier and that's exactly what's happening and you see that on new car fitments. So that was I think something we knew we called that was going to happen, we saw happening and it is, and it says that mid-tier is a place to be with HVA tires. Secondly, as we look at the market, we had to get our business model in line to get out of some of the private label business, which we did, and we moved upmarket where we could get value for the brand. And then we wanted to – we are and we said we wanted to play in that mid-tier section particularly mid-tier commuter touring because that is the single largest part of the auto market and the tire market, if you will. So, playing in there with Goodyear brand in some cases and the Kelly brand in other cases, really sets us up very well to get the value of our brand to put the technology in there, and to do that as an alternative for dealers and consumers who in most cases would rather have that Kelly or Goodyear tire than an imported tire, and that was I think a strategy we had planned and the strategy we're executing.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Thank you very much, Rich. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks. Okay. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Emmanuel Rosner with CLSA.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA

Hi, good morning everybody. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Emmanuel. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA

So just first a quick housekeeping question. So, on your outlook slide, so the net effect of all the changes related to Venezuela is a positive $70 million for the full year? How much of that happened in Q2? How much of the $70 million is something that helped your SOI this quarter? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. So it's about half. So you're correct, in the $70 million and you'd say about of the half of that is Venezuela's second quarter.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA

And the breakup of that is about $50 million plus on the price versus raw, and then a little negative on the cost saving? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Correct.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA

Okay. All right. That's great for the housekeeping. And then sort of like, looking longer term, I know it's obviously too early to speak about in detail about 2016, but at the same time, I'm obviously impressed that as part of your reiterated outlook today, you're mentioning the 10% to 15% SOI both for 2015 as well as 2016. So just directionally, a lot of the – your SOI growth sort of in recent quarters and periods has come from positive price net of raw materials, which obviously is not your long-term strategy, it's more like neutral. So when you sort of like look at going into 2016, what sort of a driver should we expect that will sort of yield 10% to 15% SOI growth? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Emmanuel, I think what we talk about internally and it's what I'll tell you very openly as well, we have to be focused on a balanced plan of growth, of volume growth, of revenue growth and of cost reduction and efficiencies in our business. And I think, there are times when some of those will have a higher weighting than the others. But as we think about our long-term strategic goal on our roadmap of creating sustainable value over the long-term, we have to have a balanced plan of revenue growth, of volume growth and of cost management and efficiency to drive that 10% to 15%. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right. And as we move through the year and especially on our fourth quarter call, we'll walk through kind of the same formats and give you a lot more detail as we see it. As you can imagine, things continue to change by the day as they have.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA

Definitely. Thanks for the color. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you. You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Ravi Shanker - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just one housekeeping question on the FX guidance, which you've kept pretty flat, but now points to heavier-weighted second half versus first half. I would have thought that comps get easier in the second half versus the first half. So can you just talk about any moving parts that kind of shifted that, if at all? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. No, the comps don't get easier in the second half as we go. Right now, we've got the euro in our assumptions at about $1.09 as we go, but the comps do not get any easier as we go. We're only about half way through the year, right? These are very volatile, so we're really not changing our guidance at this time. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Ravi, I don't think there is anything to read into there, other than FX is a big headwind to the moving target? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, very uncertain. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: There's nothing (1:07:36) Ravi Shanker - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Understood. And just to summarize some of your comments on this call. When you look at the North American market today and just look at the volatility around orders related to the tires and such, what's your feeling on the state of the market today, especially that the state of the channel in terms of the channel being filled versus not? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Ravi, I guess, maybe…

Operator

Operator

And it appears we have no further questions. So I will return the floor to our presenters for any closing remarks. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, thank you. I'd like to wrap up our call by reiterating how pleased we are with our second quarter and first half results, particularly amid global economic challenges. We expect those challenges to continue in many of our markets but we are confident in our strategy and teams, we're confident in our products and brand, and confident in our ability to reach our growth target and deliver sustainable value. So, thanks everyone for joining us, and we'll talk with you again next quarter. Thank you. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.