Earnings Labs

Global Ship Lease, Inc. (GSL)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 6, 2019

$39.73

+1.47%

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Transcript

Ian Webber

Management

Hello, everybody. Welcome to our third quarter 2019 earnings conference call. The slides that accompany today's presentation are available on our website at www.globalshiplease.com. As usual slides 1 and 2 remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations and assumptions and are by their very nature inherently uncertain and outside of our control. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to many factors, including those described in the Safe Harbor section of the slide presentation. We also draw your attention to the Risk Factors section of our most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which is for 2018 and was filed with the SEC on March 29, 2019. You can obtain this file via our website or via the SEC's. All of our statements are qualified by these and other disclosures in our reports filed with the SEC. We don't want to take any duty to update forward-looking statements. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures, to which we will refer during this call, to the most directly comparable measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, please refer to the earnings release that we issued this morning, which is also available on our website. I'm joined today by our Executive Chairman, George Youroukos; our Chief Financial Officer, Tassos Psaropoulos; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Tom Lister. George will provide opening remarks about GSL and our strategy, and then, Tom, Tassos, and I will take you through the quarterly results, financials and the market environment. After our prepared remarks, we would be delighted to take your questions. Turning now to Slide 3, I'll now pass the call to George.

George Youroukos

Management

Thank you, Ian. Good morning ladies and gentlemen. I'm pleased to provide you with an update on Global Ship Lease and the extensive progress that we have made so far this year in unlocking our true value. Before we dive into the detail, allow me to very briefly introduce the company to anyone who may be joining us for the first time following our recent highly successful equity offering. GSL owns a fleet of 41 container ships and has contracted to purchase another two, which we have included in today's announcement. We lease out, or charter as we call it in our industry, our ships to operators, who have a business to carry container cargo on behalf of importers and exporters. All of our ships are in the mid-size and smaller classes, essentially from 2,000 to 11,000 TEU or containers as we call them, of capacity. We do not own the smaller ships, which are deployed on niche regional business or the biggest ships which are essentially dependent on trade out of China but focus on service the trade lanes that carry over 70% of global container trade and which typically grow more reliably and more quickly than the big East-West trades, which you tend to read about in the newspapers. So our ships have negligible involvement in the Trans-Pacific trade to the U.S., which incidentally continues to grow despite concerns of tariffs and trade war. The supply of mid-sized and smaller vessels is now structurally short following many years of minimal or zero new building order. Investment has been focused mainly on the larger ships now 23,000 TEU to achieve unit cost efficiencies but which due to physical and trade limitations cannot compete with the smaller cousins. The shortage of supply has led to substantial increases in daily rates.…

Ian Webber

Management

George, thanks you. Let's turn to Slide 5, where you can see our charter portfolio. There is a lot of data on this slide, so I'll highlight some of the key points. The bars in dark blue are those charters that we've agreed in 2019 year-to-date. As you can see, we've been very busy and we have great deals to showcase in terms of downside protection and value locked in, which contributes to our extensive contract cover, $778 million spread over on average as George says, 2.6 years. This gives us some estimated 99% of our EBITDA for 2019 covered and 88% for 2020 with significant coverage thereafter. Many of our charters have multiple years remaining, particularly those charters with the highest day rates. At the same time, we’ve deliberately kept some of our recent charter renewals short so that we have an opportunity to re-fix at higher rates in what we believe to be a rising market. Now moving on to Slide 6, this shows details of our fleet. This includes our most recent divisions. In the red box, you can see the ships which fall into the post-Panamax classes, which is the upper end of the mid-sized and smaller vessel class. These have been in particular high demand and day rates have more than doubled since late last year, late 2018. With many eco vessels that burn 20 to 30 tons of fuel less per day than their non-eco sisters, ships with best-in-class high reefer capacity and ships with onboard cranes to enable access to a wider range of ports around the world, our fleet is flexible, highly specified, fuel efficient and is able to offer low slot costs, low unit costs for our customers. Moving on to Slide 7, for our Q3 2019 results and recent commercial…

Tom Lister

Management

Thanks, Ian. The big industry picture is captured on Slide 11. Essentially point one, this is an industry in which demand has grown every year since we began about 60 years ago except one, 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis. As a general rule, containerized cargo volumes grow faster than GDP. You can see 20 or so years of demand growth and GDP growth in the chart at bottom left. Two, paradoxically negative sentiment and trade tensions have been a good thing at least for the mid-sized and smaller containership classes, both are done by GSL, and I'll explain why later. Three, this is really a supply story, idle capacity is minimal, scrapping of marginal ships is increasing, and most importantly, the order book is under control. This is the chart at bottom right, order book to fleet ratio is down from 60% back in 2007 to just 10.6% today. Point four, things are about to get better with an industry wide regulatory change, IMO 2020, which will be implemented from January 1 of next year. IMO 2020 is focused on reducing sulphur emissions and is expected to drive fuel costs up and operating speeds down, triggering a further reduction in effective supply. Just to illustrate, reducing the operating speed of the global fleet by just one naut -- one nautical mile per hour would reduce effective supply by approximately 6.7%. Okay, Slide 12. This slide looks at demand. The main takeaways of the supply growth is slowing while demand growth is firming. Demand is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2019 and 3.7% next year in 2020. Second point is that Trans-Pacific trades get through the headlines, thanks to the trade dispute between the U.S. and China. But China-U.S. trade actually makes up only 6.7% of…

Tassos Psaropoulos

Management

Thank you very much, Tom. Getting now to the financial section on slides 24, 25 and 26, you will find the company's income statement, balance sheet and cash flow for the third quarter. Let me point out some key items for this quarter. We generated revenue of $65.9 million and a net income for common stockholders of $9.9 million for the third quarter 2019 versus $35.9 million revenue and $3.9 million net income for the same quarter in 2018. The $30 million increase in revenue is mainly due to the additional of the 19 Poseidon vessels and the new acquired vessel GSL Eleni. In this quarter, there were 168 days of scheduled off-hire for dry-dockings mainly for work to upgrade the reefer capacity of five vessels, although where possible we also undertook the regulatory work. 32 idle days as vessels transition between charterers and six days of unscheduled off-hire resulting in an overall utilization of 94.3%. As mentioned earlier, this increased off-hire in the quarter primary reflects our decision to undertake enhancements of the reefer capacity of our ships in order to enforce the best-in-class specifications that command premium rates in the market. Finally, of note, the average operating expenses per ownership day which includes management fees has reduced by 3.1% from the $6,211 in the nine months ended September 30, 2018 to $6,016 for the same period in 2019 as a result of the lower OpEx cost per day of the Poseidon fleet and the transition of the legacy GSL fleet to its new ship manager. For the third quarter itself daily OpEx is down also 3.1% to below $6,000 per day at $5,966 from $6,154 in the same quarter in 2018. Also, as on every quarter, please note that in the appendix we have included update information on dry-dockings and upgrade work to assist you in modeling capitalized expenses and off-hire for the year together with our usual illustrative adjusted EBITDA calculator. The latter includes with two new vessels and can be used to see how different rate scenarios flow through our adjusted EBITDA. To assist, we have also provided 10 year and 15 year historic rates by vessel size. For example, if we apply the 10 year historical average rates to be open days of 2020, deducting market standard of 5% for commissions, we will generate adjusted EBITDA of about $176 million. I should emphasize now that this is not a forecast. I will now like to turn the call back to George for closing remarks.

George Youroukos

Management

Thank you, Tassos. To conclude, I would like to summarize the themes of our company, which is usually undervalued. Our stock trades at a significant discount to both charter adjusted net asset value and also to the EV to EBITDA multiple of our peers. If we traded at the same approximate multiple of our peers, which is around 8 times, the stock would be around $19. This is a supply story. A highly specified fleet positioned in a segment with little or no order book provides great earnings potential in the current supply constrained environment, which we expect will further tighten due to IMO 2020. We are prudent. Having locked in significant forward charter cover at elevated rates, $340 million of adjusted EBITDA is associated with the new charters we have put in place since the merger to provide tangible shareholder value, whilst also providing downside protection. We manage our balance sheet conservatively and always look to optimize our capital structure and to further strengthen our credit profile, which is an important part of our strategy as evidenced by our recent refinancing and equity raise. We are delivering growth which is accretive to both earnings and our credit profile. So, that's what this all boils down to, is that, we are at a point in the container cycle with great upside potential and we have a great company to take advantage of it, which is demonstrated by a significant accomplishments in the last 12 months. We remain 100% focused on seizing the value-creative opportunities still ahead of us. With that, I would like to open our presentations to questions. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. First question comes from Joseph Farricielli with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please proceed with your question.

Joseph Farricielli

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the call. Just a couple of questions on the balance sheet to make sure I understand what’s happening. I see that the $38.5 million of the New Junior loan it was outstanding at 9/30, I thought, I’d recalled in a prior press release that it wasn't drawn down. Did you draw those two tranches at different times?

George Youroukos

Management

I will ask Tassos to answer that question.

Tassos Psaropoulos

Management

Sure. The junior that we mentioned here is actually an amendment as we have mentioned in the press release. What I mean is that we already have in place this junior loan in this facility and we have just extended in order to max -- which was actually the main change in this facility to max the new senior syndicate loan.

Joseph Farricielli

Analyst

Okay. When you...

Ian Webber

Management

It's a bit confusing. There are two figures of $268 million here. There was a new facility of $268 million, of which we drew down $230 million and refinanced $230 million and the other $38 million of the new facility still remains undrawn. Separately, as Tassos just said, separately, we renegotiated the terms of another $38 million loan pushing out its maturity. So, total refinancing was something like $300 million, of which $38 million we have not drawn.

Joseph Farricielli

Analyst

Okay. Because I'm looking on Slide 28 and it showed outstanding balance at 9/30 and I guess that $38.5 million under the new junior loan at the bottom, that actually is undrawn.

Ian Webber

Management

Correct.

Tassos Psaropoulos

Management

It's not the $38.5 million that it has not withdrawn, this has been drawn. If you see on the note two, you see that the new senior secured loan has two tranches, tranche A of $230 million that has been drawn and another $38 million which they have been committed but not drawn yet.

Joseph Farricielli

Analyst

Thank you. Okay. I didn't see the note. And then my next question is, just want to make sure I understand mechanics. After you made the mandatory optional redemption on the 9.875% notes, where -- let's just assume no one takes it, let’s face it, the bonds trading above the 102 price, so I'm assuming no holder would tender into that. Where does the money go? Does it go to the Citi facility or that new term loan facility?

Ian Webber

Management

It goes to the Citi facility. So if -- you're right, bondholders do not accept the $20 million, then we use I think it’s $14.8 million to fully repay the Citi facility, which is the amount that will be outstanding at the end. Well, it is outstanding because we just paid down another $10 million of scheduled amortization on that. The schedule Page 28 shows $25 million outstanding, less the scheduled $10 million gives you $15 million. So we would -- which is the accurately $14.8 million. So we would use $14.8 million of the $20 million to pay down Citi and the balance of $5.2 million goes to bondholders mandatorily.

Joseph Farricielli

Analyst

Okay, so that $5.2 million, bondholders don't have an option. Is it pro rata that you apply it?

Ian Webber

Management

Yes.

Joseph Farricielli

Analyst

And then sticking on the 9.875%, as you can imagine a lot of people are focused on it. And as we've discussed on prior calls it's expensive debt, what are your thoughts, what needs to happen so that you're in a position to take those out?

Ian Webber

Management

We're working on it as we said in the prepared remarks and we've made no secret of it when we met investors buy-side, sell-side, credit equity, that it is our near term priority to refinance this instrument which is legacy GSL. It was the only debt that was available to us in 2014 and then renewed in 2017 with a replacement issue. Now we have a broader range of debt financing available to us as we're 3 times the size. We need to put together bits of the jigsaw puzzle. We obviously want to get on with it because we think that we can save significant amount of interest costs and time is money, but we want to get it right. So this is more than likely a 2020 happening, although we're working on it with all priority.

Joseph Farricielli

Analyst

And so I guess my point was, there is no -- no credit facilities prevent the refinancing, I think is what I'm hearing. And then final, final question is on the dividend, once the Citi and the 9.875% are removed, is that when you will be able to start paying a dividend again?

Ian Webber

Management

Well, technically we can pay a dividend today. We've just raised $50 million of equity under the terms of the indenture. That immediately creates $50 million of dividend capacity. But we wouldn't raise $50 million from common equity and then pay it back. We look to achieve the refinancing of the bonds that will create incremental cash flow. It'll push out the maturity of our debt. We would anticipate recognizing the importance of the dividend on the common. And we do want to access the common equity markets in due course to provide further growth capital and to be able to develop the business and dividend is a priority for us. But we will only introduce one when we believe it's sustainable.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator instructions]. And our next question comes from Howard Blum with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Howard Blum

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

In the press release, you highlighted in September, you entered into an agreement with certain affiliates of Kelso & Company, whereby they agreed to amend their option to convert C Preferred into Class A common. Could you give us more specifics about that amendment?

Ian Webber

Management

Sure. This was in response to some investors wanting clarity on exactly what would happen to the Series C Preferred, when the bond was repaid. Prior to this amendment, Kelso had an option to convert the C Preferred into common. After this amendment, they have an obligation to convert the C Preferred into common when the indenture -- when the bond is repaid. It's as simple as that. What was an option is now an obligation.

Howard Blum

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Do you know, if the shares are being distributed at Kelso to the limited partners or are they being held by Kelso in the fund?

Ian Webber

Management

Well, the C Preferred shares are held by two Kelso affiliates which I think is part of that public disclosure. Beyond that, we can't comment. We don't know.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Ian Webber for any closing remarks.

Ian Webber

Management

Thank you very much. Thank you for listening to us. Thank you for your questions. We look forward to providing you an update on the company on Q4, which will be in 2020. Thank you.