Tom Lister
Analyst · Aptior Capital. Your line is now open
Thanks, Ian. As usual, let's start by taking a quick look at the broader backdrop. The tone of the IMF's latest macroeconomic outlook remains cautious with 3.2% global GDP growth forecast for 2019. However, the report also points to the apparent easing or at least non-escalation of tensions between the US and China with global GDP growth forecast to pick up to 3.5% in 2020, while trade growth is also expected to improve from around about 2.5% in 2019 to 3.7% in 2020. Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to continue to be important drivers of growth as they offer the trade served by mid-sized and smaller container ships, with the aggregate GDP expected to grow by 4.1% this year and 4.7% in 2020. Meantime, despite the negative macro sentiment that has hung over the year to date, supportive industry fundamentals for mid-sized and smaller containerships, particularly for post Panamax container ships providing the most competitive slot costs, have caused earnings in the charter market to strengthen significantly throughout the first half of 2019, as George has noted, with that strong positive momentum continuing into the third quarter. The next few slides provide our usual market analysis with recurring themes summarized at the top of Slide 7. Essentially, these are, one, despite headwinds to sentiment, industry fundamentals are supportive, with demand growth expected to strengthen into 2020. Two, the containership order book remains extremely modest, with zero ships on order in the five segments most relevant to us. Three, short-term negative sentiment is helpful to longer term industry fundamentals limiting new orders. Also, scrapping activity is picking up with demolitions through first-half 2019 already exceeding those in the full-year 2018 by a factor of over 1.3 times. Four, we see the impending industry-wide implementation of IMO 2020 emission control regulation as a positive development for the sector as a whole, with the added benefit that we expected to be a positive earnings catalyst for containership owners like us offering modern, fuel-efficient ships to the charter market. Scrubber retrofitting, which takes a vessel out of service for approximately six weeks to eight weeks, is causing the removal of capacity from the market during 2019 and beyond. Plus, as fuel prices are anticipated to rise materially in 2020, operators are expected to further slow steam ships, which will cause a reduction in effective supply. And five, and this is a point we've been focusing on for some time and that goes to the very heart of the GSL thesis and value proposition, we believe industry dynamics continue to be most attractive for smaller and particularly mid-sized ships, with GSL's low-slot cost ships well positioned to capitalize on the cascade. The chart from the lower half of the slide underlined the points I've just made. On the left, you can see a comparison of demand growth, the dot bars, and supply growth, pale bars. You can see demand growth exceeding supply growth in 2016 and '17, causing earnings in the short-term charter market to increase as reflected in the charter rate index, the red line. In 2018, overall supply for the global containership fleet outgrew demand partly due to new ship deliveries, the majority of which were very large containerships, but also importantly because scrapping slowed significantly as earnings and asset values firmed. As we move through 2019 and towards 2020, industry fundamentals, and as a result, vessel earnings in the charter market affirming once again. The lower right hand chart shows how the global fleet has evolved since 2007. Most significantly, you can see how the order book to fleet ratio, which was north of 60% in 2007 on the back of speculative orders largely out of the German KG market, had fallen to 12.3% by the end of last year, and by the end of the first half of this year, it had fallen further to 10.9%, a reduction of 5.5 times, which is pretty extraordinary. If you drill down, as we will on a later slide, the order book to fleet ratio for 2,000 TEU and up to 10,000 TEU ships, the mid-sized and smaller vessel segments we're focused on, is only 2.5% with nothing on order at all, absolutely zero between 4,000 TEU and 10000 TEU. Slide 8 focuses mainly on the demand side fundamentals. The pie chart at top left shows the composition of global containerized trade in 2018. Almost 30% of volumes were carried in the mainlane trades, by which we mean Asia-Europe, the Trans-Pacific, and the Trans-Atlantic. Much more relevant to us, however, is the fact that in aggregate, a little over 70% of global containerized trade volumes were carried in the non-mainlane intermediate and intra-regional trades, which tend to be served by mid-sized and smaller container ships of the sort provided by GSL. You can see from the chart at top right, that globally demand growth is forecast to accelerate from 2019 into 2020 and is expected to outstrip supply growth again in 2020. And from the bottom chart, you can see that the most robust growth is expected to be concentrated in the non-mainlane, intermediate and intra-regional trades. Turning to Slide 9; this slide looks at fleet composition and vessel deployment patterns. The pie chart at top left shows composition of the global fleet showing the proportion by number of ships of each sized segment. Significantly, 43% of the ships on the water today are 2,000 TEU or smaller. This is relevant in the context of the cascade, which we'll come back to later. The bar chart shows how the global fleet is deployed, dividing containerized trade into 20 or so groupings which arranged along the horizontal axis. Immediately below these, you will see the number of ships operated in each trade grouping. The bars in the chart show the maximum vessel size deployed per trade grouping, the pale blue bars, and the average vessel size, the dark blue. Clearly, the really big ships, a key to a handful of trades driven by search for unit cost efficiency, facilitated by high volumes, sophisticated port infrastructure and long trade lanes. Asia-Europe is the obvious example served by the largest ships on the water, maximum size north of 22,000 TEU, and with an average size around 15,000 TEU. On the flip side, as demonstrated by the area between the dotted red lines, ships of between 2,000 TEU and 10,000 TEU, in other words, those focused upon by GSL are core to most of the trade lanes. Furthermore, liner companies have observed the trade tensions between the US and China have forced their customers to reshape supply chains with goods previously sourced from China, increasingly being manufactured and sourced elsewhere, particularly in Southeast Asia. We expect this change in trade patterns to increase intra-regional trade and further strengthen demand for mid-sized and smaller ships over time. Slides 10 and 11 present the same data in a slightly different way on the basis that a picture tells a thousand words. Slide 10 shows the deployment of the big ships, those of over 10,000 TEU, during a 30-day period in the first quarter of 2019. As you can see, they're largely concentrated on the arterial East-West trades. Turning to Slide 11, on the other hand, you can see the deployment of mid-sized and smaller ships, which are pretty much everywhere. So the previous few slides demonstrate why we believe the demand side of the story for mid-sized and smaller ships is compelling. Now let's look at supply. Slide 12 shows that supply side fundamentals are also very favorable for the segments we're focused on. Top left, you can see that idle fleet capacity, the red line, although subject to the usual seasonal variations, has been trending down since 2016. At its worst, back in 2009, the idle fleet -- fleet peaked north of 12%. At the end of first-half 2019, it was 1.6%. Scrapping, which is the focus of the chart at top right, helped to reduce idle capacity during 2016 and '17. However, as you can see, strengthening in the market with rising charter market earnings and asset values meant that scrapping in 2018 was rather limited, around 100,000 TEU. The good news is that despite rising rates and rising asset values, scrapping activity is increasing in 2019 with almost 140,000 TEU scrapped in the first half alone. Bottom left is a chart showing the order book, which is significantly weighted towards the big ships and very low for the mid-sized and smaller ships. To reiterate, the overall order book to fleet ratio at the end of Q2 was 10.9%, which is already down by the way from 11.7% at the end of Q1. For vessels between 2,000 TEU and 10,000 TEU, it was 2.5%. And most notably, for the segments ranging from 4,000 TEU to just under 10,000 TEU, in other words, those representing roughly 80% of GSL fleet capacity, there is zero, I repeat, zero new capacity in the pipeline. Turning to slide 13, you can see that ship building capacity is contracting. The number of active yards has fallen by over 60% since the peak in 2008, and the number of yards actually taking orders has fallen by more than 90% over that same period. This is very good news for containership owners like us for two reasons. The first is that increased pricing discipline from the remaining yards, as you will see from the new building index on the next slide, is placing upward pressure on new building prices and ship replacement values. And secondly, bringing the order book into check going forward should significantly reduce volatility. Remember, we're in a highly cyclical industry in which, with the exception of 2009, demand has always grown from one year to the next. So the key to long-term profitability is to get the supply side under control, and that's what we're seeing at the moment. Slide 14 focuses on charter rates and asset values. Here, you can see how vessel earnings, short-term charter rates and asset values have evolved over the long term, which is the left hand chart, and since the beginning of the fundamentals-driven recovery a couple of years ago, which is the top right hand chart. As you can see, short-term charter rates, the red line, were under sustained downward pressure for a number of years until during the first quarter of 2017, they began to recover sharply. As you'd expect, asset values tend to correlate to earnings and sentiment and also began to firm significantly. This upward trajectory continued through first-half 2018, but faltered in the second half of the year as trade war rhetoric ramped up and sentiment turned negative. The usual industry low season, which tends to run from the fourth quarter through Chinese New Year and Q1 exacerbated this downward trend. However, in the last few months, as you can see clearly from the chart at bottom right, charter rate momentum has turned very strongly positive. This has been driven by post Panamax vessels of 5,500 TEU and up, so roughly 70% plus of GSL fleet capacity, where charter rates have more than doubled for the larger sizes since the fourth quarter of 2018. With the largest size segments largely sold out, the rate recovery, as George mentioned early -- earlier, is now beginning to lift rates for the smaller sizes too. We were able to capitalize on this combination of strong fundamentals overlaid by negative sentiment with our recent purchase of the three 8,000 TEU ships. Next couple of slides explain where we think the best value and upside potential lies within our established focus on smaller and mid-sized ships. So Slide 15 looks at slot costs. We've covered this before, but we wanted to remind you of this critically important metric, which is the principal driver for chartering decisions made by our customers, the liner companies. So slot cost is the daily cost to a liner company for the space that each loaded container occupies on a given ship. The equation of top right explains how slot costs are calculated. Daily fuel costs, daily charter hire divided by the number of loaded containers at an assumed standardize load of 14 metric tons per TEU on the ship. The greater the cargo carrying capacity and fuel efficiency of a ship, the lower the slot cost, and the lower the slot cost, the more attractive the ship to liner companies in the charter market. Fuel costs are a significant part of the calculation. As you can see from the chart at bottom right, at a constant operating speed, daily fuel cost per TEU decreases as ship size increases. If fuel costs climb as is anticipated with the implementation of IMO 2020, this relationship has an even greater economic impact. What this all means is that on any given trade, liner companies tend to deploy the largest possible vessel that can be supported by commercial considerations, by which I mean cargo volumes and service frequency and by physical limitations such as shore side infrastructure and vessel dimensions. Goes without saying that slot cost economies are only unlocked if a liner operator can fill the ship. So a ship size appropriate for one trade may not be a good fit for another. Slide 16 takes the slot cost concept and translates it into vessel earnings and upside potential shaping the strategic positioning of GSL. The bar chart looks at slot cost parity by charter rate and ship size, in other words, it shows the implied charter rates for different ship sizes which would result in the same all-in slot cost to the charterer. We've run this analysis using illustrative fuel costs of $400 per metric ton, the dark blue bars, and $600 per metric ton, the pale blue bars. As a baseline vessel, we've used a theoretical 4,250 TEU Panamax, which sits roughly in the middle of the size segments representing the liquid charter market. Assuming this baseline vessel is deployed at a charter rate of $10000 a day, which isn't far off the market rate for that vessel back in June, a modern 9,100 TEU vessel could be chartered at up to $55,000 per day with fuel at $400 per metric ton and this rises to almost $70,000 per day with fuel at $600 per metric ton, while still delivering slot cost parity for the charterer. At the other end of the scale, the implied charter rate for an 1,100 TEU vessel would need to be negative in order to achieve slot cost parity. You'll also notice red dots on the chart. These indicate short-term charter rates for each vessel size prevailing in the market as at the end of June and it's worth mentioning that rates have since risen during the course of July. Admittedly, this slot parity exercise is a little bit theoretical as it assumes perfect deployment efficiency and ignores both commercial and physical constraints. Nevertheless, it does imply the following. Number one, for larger ships, there is significant upside to prevailing market rates before they converge on implied slot cost parity rates. Number two, this upside potential should increase further if fuel prices climb. And number three, the GSL fleet is well positioned to capitalize on the cascade. Over 85% of our fleet is Panamax or larger, delivering the lowest slot costs in the charter market and even our smallest vessels of 2,200 TEU are well placed. You'll recall that 43% of ships on the water today globally are still 2,000 TEU or smaller. So, to wrap up this section, number one, despite some headwinds to sentiment, industry fundamentals are supportive, particularly in the non-mainlane trades. Two, the order book pipeline for mid-sized and smaller ships is extremely limited. Three, scrapping activity is picking up. Four, we see IMO 2020 as likely to be a positive catalyst to containership owners causing a reduction in effective supply and then uplift to charter market earnings going forward. Five, industry dynamics continue to be most attractive for mid-sized and smaller ships, which make up the GSL fleet for which we see attractive prospects in the cascade. And finally, six, with a clear eye on our customer's needs, namely well specified ships unlocking low slot costs, we're positioning GSL to capitalize on upside opportunities in the space over the short, medium and long term. With that, Tassos, over to you.