Earnings Labs

GoPro, Inc. (GPRO)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 14, 2008

$1.47

-3.29%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and thank you for standing by. All lines will be in listen-only until the question-and-answer portion of the call. [Operator Instructions]. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Mr. Nordhoff, you may begin sir.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Turn over to Mike, Valerie.

Michael Watts

Analyst

Thank you, Valerie and good afternoon everyone. I am Mike Watts. I am Gen-Probe's Senior Director of Investor Relations. On behalf of Hank Nordhoff, our Chairman, President and CEO as well as Herm Rosenman, our Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO, as well as the rest of the Gen-Probe team, I am very pleased to welcome you to this conference call to discuss our fourth quarter 2007 business results. The press release announcing our results was issued today just after 4 o'clock Eastern Time and is posted on our website at www.gen-probe.com. In our call today, Hank will first provide an overview of our top line performance in the quarter, Herm will review our detailed results and initial 2008 guidance, then we'll take your questions. Before we begin, let me first review our Safe Harbor policy. Forward-looking guidance, financial or otherwise, is only provided in conference calls or in our press releases. Any statements in this conference call about our expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions, or future events or performance are not historical facts and are forward-looking statements. These statements are often but not always made through the use of words and phrases such as believe, will, expect, anticipate, estimate, intend, plan, foresee, could, should and would. For example, statements concerning 2007 financial guidance, financial condition, regulatory approvals and timelines, possible or assumed future results of operations, growth opportunities, industry ranking and plans and objectives of management are all forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Factors that might cause such differences include, but aren't limited to those discussed in our SEC filings including our report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2006 and all subsequent periodic reports. Copies are available on our website at www.SEC.gov and on request from our Investor Relations department. Gen-Probe assumes no obligation and expressly disclaims any duty to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this call or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. With that administrative detail out of the way, I will turn the call over to Hank Nordhoff, Gen-Probe's CEO.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Thank you, Mike and good afternoon everyone. As you saw in our press release, our fourth quarter results topped off another very good year for Gen-Probe, and we believe we are well positioned for a strong 2008 as well. We showed solid revenue growth in the quarter, even while some... even with some timing issues that affected product sales. Top line growth plus some tax benefits helped us increase earnings per share by 16%, once again ahead of expectations. In my remarks today, I will first review our product sales performance in the fourth quarter. Then I'll discuss some of our key highlights for the full year 2007, with a particular focus on our R&D achievements and investment. Gen-Probe's financial performance in the fourth quarter and in all of 2007 once again demonstrated our ability to execute against our stated financial objectives. Product sales in the fourth quarter were $92.4 million, up 8% comparing to the prior year period. Clinical diagnostic sales grew a solid 10% in the fourth quarter, once again led by our amplified APTIMA franchise for Chlamydia and gonorrhea testing. And we achieved a new record in clinical diagnostic assay sales in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, customers continued to upgrade to APTIMA assays from our oral non-amplified PACE product line. PACE sales declined 24% in the quarter, inline with our expectations. At the same time, however, we kept gaining additional STD market share. In fact, we added more than 30 competitive accounts during 2007, which we estimate translated into about 4 percentage points of additional market share on a dollar basis. We believe we remain the market leader in the United States with roughly 61% dollar share of the STD market, based on our combined APTIMA and PACE business. And we expect to continue gaining…

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Thank you, Hank and good afternoon everyone. As you saw on our press release, Gen-Probe had a solid fourth quarter financial performance. Product sales grew 8%, compared to the same period in 2006, despite some uneven shipment timing that cost us about $3 million of blood screening sales. Total revenues increased 9% and earnings per share increased 16% on a GAAP basis, again exceeding our expectations. Hank already discussed product sales, so let me start with collaborative research revenue, which was $5.4 million for the fourth quarter, up significantly from $1.2 million a year ago. This increase came mainly from three sources. First, we earned $2.7 million of milestones and research reimbursement from 3M under our food testing collaboration. And milestone payments resulted from our successfully developing prototype assays for Campylobacter, Salmonella and Listeria, three common food contaminants. Although this collaboration has ended, Gen-Probe remains full ownership of these three assays and their commercial rights. We remain optimistic about our long-term potential in molecular food testing, especially given the resources that have been dedicated to food safety at the FDA and USDA. Second, we received research funding from 3M under our separate collaboration for healthcare associated infections, as well as our first milestone for achieving technical feasibility. And third, we benefited from the last piece of funding under our Department of Defense grant for prostrate cancer research. I would caution you that our strong fourth quarter performance on this line should not be taken as a run rate going forward, as neither the 3M Food payments nor the Department of Defense grant will continue in 2008. Royalty and license revenue was $1.1 million in the fourth quarter, down significantly from the $4.4 million in the prior year period. This decrease resulted primarily from the absence of license revenue from bioMérieux.…

Michael Watts

Analyst

Thanks Herm. We are very happy to take your questions now. For the Q&A, we are joined by Carl Hull, who our Board of Directors just named President and Chief Operating Officer; Dan Kacian, our Executive Vice President and Chief Scientist; Bill Bowen, Senior Vice President and General Counsel; Harry Rittenhouse, Senior Director of Cancer Research and Kevin Herde, our Corporate Controller. Steve Kondor, our Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing is out of the office on a personal matter and therefore couldn't be with us today. In order to ensure broad participation in the Q&A session, please be courteous and limit your questions to one plus a follow up, then jump back into the queue. Operator, we are ready to take the first question. Question And Answer

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Quintin Lai from Robert W. Baird, you may ask your question.

Quintin Lai

Analyst

Good afternoon. Congratulations on a nice year and congratulations to you, Carl, on your new promotion.

Carl W. Hull

Analyst

Thank you, Quintin.

Quintin Lai

Analyst

As we take a look at some of the new products and the guidance for 2008, can you kind of tell us how PCA3 and ended the year in terms of the revenues and then the expectations that you have built into 08 and as well as the MilliPROBE business?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Yes, hi, Quintin, this is Herm. In terms of detailing and getting that granular, we are not going to do that on this call, probably not until later on in the year. But as we said, the sales of PCA3, both in the United States and in Europe are increasing at a fast rate, but off of a very small base. So I hope that answers your question.

Quintin Lai

Analyst

All right. And then, Hank, you kind of mentioned a little bit about looking for opportunities for uses of cash, one of them you already announced with the $16 million purchase of your blood screen manufacturing facility. Are those the type of deals are you looking at, or could you be looking at more substantive deals in the M&A environment?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Yes, we didn't mean to imply we are going to buy real estate. We really are serious about adding to the business. We've talked about this at some length and unfortunately all you've heard is talk, you haven't seen any results. But we are really stepping up the effort. We think there are opportunities out there to broaden our business, both geographically and from a scientific, technical, and product standpoint. And we are looking after those.

Quintin Lai

Analyst

Would you stay within the suite of the different areas you've been currently focusing in, on the infection disease, oncology et cetera or would you look to broaden outside of those areas?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

I think those area are sufficiently large that we could stay within those, while still broadening our product offering. But if we have to go into a close related area, Quintin, we would certainly look at that as well.

Quintin Lai

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Sara Michelmore from Cowen and Company, you may ask your question.

Sara Michelmore

Analyst

Yes, thank you. I guess I'll ask a question on the guidance, specifically on the revenue line. I think if my math is correct, Herm, it looks like you are assuming that the product revenue growth for next year is sort of in a 9% to 11% band, and I assume that we should assume that the clinical diagnostics is a double-digit growth part of the business, and that blood screening a bit slower, just was hoping you could comment on that.

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

I can, Sara. I think we said in the prepared remarks, no double-digit. We... I think you can expect that on both sides of the business. So, the 9% to 11% is in the ballpark, but may be just a bit low.

Sara Michelmore

Analyst

Okay. So the guidance had... you did not include the one-time payments or the collaborative revenue payments, and you are talking double-digits?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

The product we said double low double-digit product --

Sara Michelmore

Analyst

Product revenue. Okay. That was my mistake, I apologize. On the gross margin, I was hoping you could give us some quantitation, Herm, of what exactly or how big is the drag on the gross margin line from the ULTRIO business internationally? I am surprised that you are not getting a little bit more gross margin lift going into this year.

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

We obviously, we haven't gotten that granular. The much larger drag, of course of course, it's not a drag for the future, but it is today, is instrumentation. We did mention, of course, in the prepared remarks that we are seeing lower pricing in certain areas of the world, but that's it's out-shadowed significantly by the impact of instrumentation and ancillaries.

Sara Michelmore

Analyst

All right, I'll get back in the queue. Thanks.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Thanks Sara.

Operator

Operator

David Lewis from Morgan Stanley, you may ask your question.

David Lewis

Analyst

Good afternoon. Two questions here guys. I guess the first question is this. Hank, you talked the 2x spending in R&D versus your nearest competitor, and Herm talked about the best pre-tax growth heading into 08, but I think if you adjust for some one-time payments, that's probably not the case. And you are guiding to since your product sales growth represents the third consecutive year of deceleration. So, I guess, my question is what can you say to shareholders to give them comfort or assurance that decelerating growth is not acceptable and a company is going to take the appropriate steps in 08 to turn this around, or is the company happy with decelerating growth?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Well, to take the second part first, David, no, we are not happy. I mean, growth rates in the low double-digits it's not horrible, but compared to what we have done in the past and comparing to what we are capable of doing, it is unacceptable. We are trying to accelerate certain programs to bring them forward faster. We are going to work the P&L as much as we can and to look for other opportunities, as I was I saying, in the conversation with Quintin to add to our business. I think we are capable of doing all of those things.

David Lewis

Analyst

And are you capable of doing them in 2008?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

We can certainly do the former because that's within our control. When we are talking acquisitions of technology and products, and possibly companies, it really takes two to tango and it has to be a good deal for both parties. So I can't really commit to that, but we are working on it.

David Lewis

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And the second question is, Hank, about 18 months ago, I think, at the prior Analyst Day, maybe a little earlier that year, I think you talked about industrial, I think you were asked the question how large of a business industrial could be for you, for the company. I think you made a comment that in five years it could be a third of the revenue base. And I actually can't remember if that was total revenue or diagnostics. Are you as optimistic now about the industrial business and would you make a similar commitment now that we are a year and a half into that prediction?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Yes, I still feel pretty comfortable. I think the potential is huge for industrial, and that would include food testing as well. We do have those rise back. But getting involved in water testing and trying to monitor the production of drugs and biopharmaceuticals and because 3M is a customer getting involved in hospital and community acquired infections, outside industrial one of those opportunities, I think, is possible. The one area that we feel a little bit of caution or see a little bit of caution on the part of our partners is they think that their customers are fairly reluctant to make a big change in the short period of time. And we are a little more optimistic on that. So the potential is there, the size is certainly there, and we will achieve it. The question is timing and I am still optimistic that in 3.5 years it will still be or will be a very, very substantial part of our overall business, not just diagnostics.

David Lewis

Analyst

Right, thanks for your candor.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

Bill Quirk of Piper Jaffray, you may ask your question.

Bill Quirk

Analyst

Yes, thanks and good afternoon.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Hi, Bill.

Bill Quirk

Analyst

First off, I guess, Herm, I guess I will pick on you since Steve is not in today, but the APTIMA Combo 2 projects product, was that up on a sequential basis?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Sequential to the third quarter?

Bill Quirk

Analyst

Sequential to the third quarter, correct.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

I am going to, guess, yes. But that's a guess, because our assay sales were the highest they've ever been in a quarter.

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

I am going to tell in a second, Bill, hold on.

Bill Quirk

Analyst

And them maybe I will just try the second...

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Go onto your next one, I will check on it.

Michael Watts

Analyst

Bill, it's Mike. The answer is yes.

Bill Quirk

Analyst

The answer is yes, okay, great, thank you. Secondly, Carl, congrats on the promotion. A question for Hank; if all goes according to the plan, I would assume it's probably safe to assume that Carl becomes the CEO next year and --

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

We are counting on him.

Bill Quirk

Analyst

You are counting on it, excellent. Now having said all this, are there any projects, Hank, that you'd really like to see get across the finish line before you handover the CEO title?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Bill, I probably worked harder than I have in the 14 years I have been here and traveled maybe 50% more. I think idea is to get some of these newer opportunities that David and I were just talking about very well established before giving out the CEO position and just remaining as Chairman of the Board. And that's where I am spending my time because I think the potential is enormous and because I think we have to prod our partners a little bit. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see CN [ph] is spending a lot time on food testing to see the possibility of some revenues this year. Now whether that's going to be... because we license it, we sell it, or we get some funding from a collaborator could range anywhere for a company in this field to the FDA. This is where we are working. We are trying to accelerate what we can bring in from those business into this year and beyond, but basically to make sure that they are very well established. And I just want to make sure that we have got the right people in the right positions here at Gen-Probe.

Bill Quirk

Analyst

Understood, thank you.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Imron Zafar from Deutsche Bank, you may ask your questions.

Imron Zafar

Analyst

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First question on PCA3, could you just walk us through the terms of the DiagnoCure licensing agreement in light of the delay in starting your pivotal trial? In other words, is there any potential for that royalty rate to go up?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

I am a little bit reluctant to get involved in the specifics in this one, Imron. We have a good relationship with DiagnoCure. We work very closely now for a long time. Things have been a little bit different than we anticipated, both parties when we signed it we thought it was going to be a qualitative assay and it turned out to be quantitative. What we do will be in the best interest of both companies and more importantly in the patient population. So, we think we have got a great relationship with them. I think they feel the same way and don't think anything will come between that, or between doing the sort of program that we have discussed with them. As we have said before I think on multiple occasions, the current assay is a bit clumsy, is really only appropriate for the more esoteric labs. And we think the potential is much broader than that, and that's why we are going to reformulate it, and to put it on the Panther. It will be automated, it will its performance certainly will not be changed at all. It may be even increased and I think it will open the door to much wider usage throughout the world.

Imron Zafar

Analyst

Okay. And then in the food testing endeavor, post to the 3M termination, is that program still being shopped around in terms of a partnership, or are you pretty set on going it alone there?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

We hate to use the word shop around, it's like Sara's word, drag on sales and all of that. We think there is opportunity, we think a lot of things have happened to really buttress our feelings since the funding from 3M is stopped. The FDA is really interested in it. We believe that we can help make through our technologies and our people the food supply as safe as we make the blood supply in the U.S. So we are exploring opportunities, this is probably a better way of putting it, with the both food processors, with the people who sell tests, and with people who have a stake in the game, like some government organizations that try to accelerate this CUDA instrument, which can be used to test onsite, perhaps to be used in China before certain materials are shipped to get at the prevention before the intervention and the response that the FDA keeps talking about.

Imron Zafar

Analyst

Okay. And then one quick question on guidance; you refrained from giving sort of granular guidance on PCA3, but maybe just to give us a sense of the type of returns you are getting on you R&D, could you may be give us a rough sense of what the incremental revenues you expect from total new products in 2008?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Let me deal with PCA3, Quintin [ph], I mean, we said for 2007, it was a couple of million dollars, and we said it was growing from that base. So it is a small base, it is but it is growing smartly.

Imron Zafar

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Tycho Peterson from JPMC, you may ask your question.

Tycho Peterson

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Hi, Tycho.

Tycho Peterson

Analyst

I am actually going to pest with you with another question on the guidance, and just to be clear in terms of the outlook for this year, are you still assuming initial commercial revenues on the Legionella assay with GE? And then also, are there any technical milestones we should think about from 3M? I know you had $3 million last year for the HCAI, is there another potential technical milestone you may see this year?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Yes, on the GE revenue, Tycho, probably this is still in the nascent stages. There are probably three different approaches we can take with the program, as it's being developed. One, we could take the initial CUDA, and try to use that now on the developing program, and may be derive some revenues. Secondarily, we could start now on an OEM system and generate revenues for sure. And then third, we could wait until the next generation or the next version, if you will, of the instrument for CUDA and that might take a little more time than 10 or 12 months. So, if we don't get them this year, it should be around the end of the year, beginning of next year, depending on the approach GE decides to take.

Operator

Operator

Spencer Nam from Summer Street Research Partners, you may ask your question.

Spencer Nam

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. I just have a couple of quick questions for you guys. On the ULTRIO outlook in terms of the approval from the FDA on HPV, sounds like you guys are being obviously being cautious for the right reasons, but can we assume that based on your outlook that we could safely assume that it is going to be approved by second half of this year, some time in Q3?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

We think so. When we submitted our last application, in the mean time, our competitor Roche had come up with two yields. Therefore the hurdle was raised for us. We believe that we have those two yields and that's we have told we were needed. So, unless things change, we expect that we could get it approved within the timeline. It is always a possibility that the approval time at the FDA could be less than 4 or 5 months, and that might give us a month or two of revenue. But for the most part, we expect that to be a not until 2009, but we are optimistic that we will get the $10 million payment from Novartis.

Spencer Nam

Analyst

Great. The second question is, for the first time in a while that your talking about making an acquisition, strategic acquisition, to show up your growth potential, in terms of your planning, could you may be discuss where you are? Are you at do you have may be a list of companies that or the ideas that you guys are interested in? And if so, are you guys set on making this an accretive acquisition only or is it a little is the criteria a little broader than that?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

We were reluctant to get involved in any specifics, Spencer, for reasons that are easily understood. But in the past that we have talked about accretion and dilution, and said that if it's a real terrific one we will take a little dilution for the near term, so long as this is going to be accretive in the mid to longer term.

Spencer Nam

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Thank you, sir.

Operator

Operator

Bruce Cranna from Leerink Swann, you may ask your question.

Bruce Cranna

Analyst

Thank You. Hi, Herm, I am sorry if I missed it. Did you throw an equipment number to Novartis? Was it 3.4 with the TIGRIS number?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

It was.

Bruce Cranna

Analyst

Okay. And then, I guess, I too would like to spend a little time about the guidance in 08, I am trying to I am looking at your, let's say, $0.50 number for Q1 and then looking at 08, the remainder of the year, over the prior three quarters in 07 or the similar, the same three quarters in 07. It kind of implies flattish earnings growth; I am just trying to reconcile in my modal. So I have top line going up, margins on the gross end of things going the right way, and R&D coming down a bit. Why should I or we be thinking about, let's say, flattish last three quarters of the year EPS over last three quarters of 07?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

I don't think we talked about flat earnings per share.

Bruce Cranna

Analyst

Well, I am just saying if I back out --

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

We talked about sequentially increasing slightly during the course of the year, at least at the products sales line, and there was no real lumpiness to any of the other lines, collaborative research, royalty, and license. And no spiking that we talked about in the guidance, in the expenses. So, I would expect that you'd see fairly good growth there, and fairly consistent.

Michael Watts

Analyst

Hey, Bruce, it's Mike. A couple of things to think about there. I mean, one, don't forget we are losing a couple of chunks of collaborative research revenue in 08 versus 07. One piece of that would be the food reimbursement, of course. Second would be the DoD grant. And also just make sure you are looking at a pre-tax I am sure you are looking at a pre-tax line and not an after-tax line to strip out some of the benefits that we had in 2007, which obviously make a big difference on the bottom line. Next year the tax rate will probably normalize more like 35%.

Bruce Cranna

Analyst

Okay.

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

We've got the two big one-times. One in the first quarter, one in the...

Bruce Cranna

Analyst

I though I was accounting for that, but I will take another look at that. And then just in 08, just so I understand to the extent there are revenues from Millipore, would those drop in to product revenues or collaborative? How should we think about that?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

I think it will drop into both. We introduced the first product recently and so that will be in product revenues to the extent the collaboration sells products to customers, and we share in the profits of that, you would see both revenues and profits. And then to the extent we get reimbursed from Millipore, which we will continue out into the future, that will be in collaborative research revenues.

Bruce Cranna

Analyst

On the product side, it would wind up in clinical, Herm?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Product side for Millipore will wind up in clinical, that's correct.

Bruce Cranna

Analyst

Okay. And lastly, I think I have asked this before when we were going through this on the West Nile Virus side, but let's assume there's a Q3 ULTRIO indication for screening, why can't Novartis negotiate ahead of time about on the pricing side, why wait for that product actually become commercial to then go ahead and negotiate pricing? Why take a couple of months to go through that process post presumed clearance?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Yes. Well, based on experience, that's what happened with PROCLEIX and when ULTRIO came out of the chute ex-US, but I think that's probably a better question to ask Novartis.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

It's a question we pose too.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you, Bruce.

Operator

Operator

Eric Kuskelo [ph] from Thomas Weisel Partners. You may ask your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good afternoon. I am filling in for Peter Lawson. Just on the as far as PACE sales go, how much do they contribute now to product revenues?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

I am sorry.

Michael Watts

Analyst

Could you repeat that one, Eric, please?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Sure. As far as your sales of the PACE assay, how much are they contributing to revenues?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Mike, you can take that.

Michael Watts

Analyst

Yes, Eric, we never quite cut it exactly that way, but we've said that of the diagnostics number that we report somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% to 85% of that in most quarters is our STD business. Of the STD business, I believe, in the fourth quarter, we were running a little bit more than 80% APTIMA and the balance being PACE.

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

On a dollar basis.

Michael Watts

Analyst

On a dollar basis, of course.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you. And one last question with pro-commercial pricing on the HPV West Nile Virus, what does that do to revenues and margins exactly, like what kind of increase can we see from that?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

That's a great question. We don't know the answer because those pricings haven't been negotiated yet. What the guidance was from Chiron actually, last guidance on that was even pre-Novartis, was 30 to 35% uptick on PROCLEIX pricing, which at that time around the world was about $10. So, what they were saying at the time was roughly $3.50 increment. We don't know what it's going to be and we can provide some color on that after we get the approval.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Thanks Eric.

Operator

Operator

Zarak Khurshid from Caris & Company, you may ask your question.

Zarak Khurshid

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Congrats on the strong year and the progress on HPV yield.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Thank you, Zarak.

Zarak Khurshid

Analyst

Can you maybe elaborate a little more on the blood screening revenue guidance for 2008? It looks like TIGRIS placements picked up pretty significantly in the fourth quarter post the Analyst Day. So, maybe who are the new customers and how quickly are the instruments being implemented relative to earlier placements?

Carl W. Hull

Analyst

Zarak, this is Carl. The new customers we see on the blood bank side for TIGRIS are typically ex-U.S. customers and we are then entering new markets in some places that we haven't been before, and some places where they are automating for the first time around the ULTRIO assay. So, that's probably where the majority of that delta is coming from.

Zarak Khurshid

Analyst

Okay, great. So... and as far as a bolus of instruments being sort of flipped on during the year, how should we be thinking about that?

Carl W. Hull

Analyst

They don't put on in a bolus fashion. These will typically be isolated placements or single placement in a national lab or dual placement. So you will see them around as they [ph] make the transition, but it's not as if one account is putting in 10 new instruments.

Zarak Khurshid

Analyst

Okay great. And then my second question, with respect to the MRSA program, during the illustrate, it sounded like you were in the process of filing your unique IP in that area. Have the IP been filed and can you update us as to the timing for the start of the trial and the potential launch?

Michael Watts

Analyst

In MRSA

Carl W. Hull

Analyst

MRSA, intellectual property.

R. William Bowen

Analyst

I am not... this is Bill Bowen. I am not exactly sure of the timing of the filings. We are taking appropriate steps to protect the IP around that asset.

Carl W. Hull

Analyst

But as a follow-up on your question, in terms of the schedule and the milestones, we are still in the planning phases of the project, detailed level to give us specific dates for clinical trial and we don't have those yet and haven't disclosed yet and so that I think it's fair to say, the program is making good progress. There is an enthusiastic team from both companies 3M and Gen-Probe working together to identify all of the activities and working on those as we speak.

Zarak Khurshid

Analyst

Okay, great thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thanks Zarak.

Operator

Operator

Dan Leonard from First Analysis; you may ask your question.

Dan Leonard

Analyst

All right. Thank you. My first question, on the clinical revenue, it was $49.7 million in the quarter, which was down from the third quarter. So, what was behind the decline sequentially?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Sorry, could you repeat the question?

Dan Leonard

Analyst

Yes, your clinical diagnostics revenue declined in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, just what was behind that decline?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

Yes, it was primarily the... we had large equipment sale in the third quarter, so, it's more comparative issue, I think we said APTIMA Combo 2 is up sequentially.

Dan Leonard

Analyst

Okay. And then my second question on your HPV test. When you are launching that product in Europe, it will be... will the doctor have to sort of take a different box for a gene expression test than he or she would for an HPV DNA test or you are putting under the assumption that the doctors won't do anything differently and you market to the lab?

Carl W. Hull

Analyst

Dan, it's Carl. We don't see a significant proportion of physician choice being necessarily a key factor in Europe. Remember, the market is developing; it's developing in a different pace and a different time line than it has here in the United States. And, so we think the national decisions about practice have is and whether they are done in conjunction with traditional cytology or done as primary screening, will actually be the bigger determinants of our progress. Having said that, we'll enter the markets selectively, with feet on street that we've got in Europe and drive as fast as we can in each of those major markets.

Michael Watts

Analyst

Operator, I think we have time for maybe one more question and then we'll have some very brief closing remarks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Jeff Frelick from Lazard; you may ask your question.

Jeff Frelick

Analyst

Great, thanks. First one, for Hank. Hank, at the analyst day, you guys spoke a lot about international growth and driving that forward. Can you give us some color just what international sales were for what percent of revenues they were for 07 and expectations for that in 08 with respect to the guidance?

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Yes, I will ask Mike to give you the statistics and even talk about how we are going to drive them. Mike?

Michael Watts

Analyst

Yes Jeff, I think the only thing we've said there is that we kind of itemized APTIMA sales, that's what you asked, I think they were about $9 million or so in full year 2007. I believe that was up somewhere in the 60 to 70% range over 2006, I am not sure we'll grow at that rate in 2008, but something pretty close to it.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

And then some of the products that will help us specifically in Europe on the diagnostic side would be PCA3 followed by Tempress [ph], HPV and on the blood screening side, I know that Chiron, Novartis is spending a lot of time in the developing world China and Russia and Brazil, and we expect to see some nice growth there too.

Jeff Frelick

Analyst

Okay. And then just one quick follow-up for Herm, you mentioned the R&D spend working on... in shipment of prototypes for this year. Was that Panther only, or does that include CUDA?

Herm Rosenman

Analyst

That's... I was referring to Panther.

Jeff Frelick

Analyst

Okay. Thanks fellows.

Henry L. Nordhoff

Analyst

Well, thanks for all your questions. To wrap up, Gen-Probe's performance in the fourth quarter of 2007 capped off an outstanding year for the company. For the year, we grew the top line 14%, and the bottom line 41% including tax benefits and also advanced development of several future value drivers. We believe our 2007 performance has us well positioned for a successful year in 2008, a year in which we expect to deliver our highest level of pre-tax income growth in four years, even as we invest heavily in future innovation. Thank you for your time attention and interest today and please contact us if you have any follow-up questions.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.