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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 6, 2022

$16.65

+1.15%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Green Plains Inc., and Green Plains Partners Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. Following the company's prepared remarks, instructions will be provided for Q&A. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. I will now turn the call over to your host, Phil Boggs, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Boggs, please go ahead.

Phil Boggs

Management

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Green Plains Inc., and Green Plains Partners Third Quarter Earnings Call. Participants on today's call are Todd Becker, President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Stark, Chief Financial Officer, Patrich Simpkins, Chief Transformation Officer and Leslie van der Meulen, EVP of Product Marketing and Innovation. There is a slide presentation available, and you can find it on the Investor page under the Events and Presentations link on both corporate websites. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's press releases and the comments made during this conference call and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Todd Becker.

Todd Becker

Management

Thanks, Phil, and good morning, everyone. During the third quarter, we experienced a challenging margin environment, resulting in a negative $0.09 a gallon margin, some of which were onetime events and the rest largely driven by the record corn basis we experienced across to the Midwest, Southern Indiana and Tennessee, with impacts from the drought lowering corn yields, which tightened ending grain stocks as a result of three lower-than-average crops in a row in the north, the south and again, the Northern Hemisphere. We saw higher corn basis ahead of this year as harvest, but we kept our plants running through that. The world is not running out of corn. It's just tighter than normal, and it was a quarter where the industry needed to adjust. Our average corn basis was more than $1 over futures with some plants in excess of $1.50, which was higher than last year and nearly $1 higher than the five-year average. The third quarter margins were lower because of this tightness and farm ownership is in tight hands. The first impact other than corn basis is that because of these fundamental - because of the fundamental situation in corn, we decided to pull all of our seasonal maintenance shutdowns forward, completing these 10 of our 11 plants, which impacted our operating utilization rates and also increased our repairs and maintenance costs for the quarter. The shutdown impacted our margins by about $0.04 a gallon. In addition, as a result of the higher corn basis and the inverted ethanol market, we recorded an $11.2 million LCM or lower cost or market inventory adjustments, which has also impacted our margins by about $0.05 a gallon, but to be clear, this is a noncash adjustment. Excluding these two items, our consolidated gross margin would have been near…

Jim Stark

Management

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Glad to be back at Green Plains, and I'm excited for the opportunity to lead the finance organization. Green Plains consolidated revenues for the third quarter were $955 million, which is $208 million higher than the same period a year ago, which was driven by the higher run rates. Plant utilization rates improved year-over-year to a 90.9% run rate for the quarter, and that compares favorably to the 75% run rate reported in the same period last year. As Todd mentioned earlier, we anticipate utilization rates improving during the fourth quarter due to having already completed our seasonal maintenance turnarounds and believe Q4 will be our strongest production quarter of 2022. For the quarter, we reported a net loss attributable to Green Plains of $73.5 million or $1.27 per diluted share. That compares to a loss of $59.6 million for the same period in 2021. EBITDA for the quarter was a negative $35.6 million compared to a negative $16.6 million for the same period last year. As we indicated in our earnings release this morning, the third quarter faced a challenging ethanol margin environment driven by higher corn basis and a weak driving demand, limiting the opportunity to generate positive margins. We also incurred lower cost or market adjustment of $11.2 million on inventories that contributed to the negative ethanol margin. For the period, we realized a negative $0.09 per gallon consolidated crush, which was lower than the prior year due to the factors described above. Our Ag & Energy segment came in higher versus 2021, recording a $2.7 million increase in EBITDA or 71%. I would note that Ag & Energy segment has continued a strong performance for 2022, running 60% better than the nine-month period last year. For the third quarter, our…

Todd Becker

Management

Thanks, Jim. So, we typically spend some time going through protein oil, sugar and carbon. But this quarter, I actually want to start with carbon. This Inflation Reduction Act is a real game changer to our industry and our company. And while we may have some transitory quarter-by-quarter volatility from our Gen-1 business, we are increasingly optimistic about the tailwinds from the recently enacted bill and continue to believe we are uniquely situated as a company to capitalize on the decarbonization incentives included in this bill. The potential impact to our transformation is immense and is still underappreciated by the market. While it doesn't kick in till 2025, the new technology-neutral clean fuel production credit or 45Z, will be a significant game changer to fuel ethanol production as we head into the possibility of alcohol-to-jet later in the decade. The new credit provides an incentive of $0.02 per gallon for each point of CI reduction below 50. The program uses the Argonne GREET model, and many of our plants are not far from that number today. When we start with sequestration to get below 50, we can then look to further reduce our CI at each of our biorefineries, adding things like combined heat and power to biodigesters, to even wind and solar options. And when looking at this opportunity in carbon initiatives from our Midwest plants positioned on the Summit Carbon pipeline to our eastern plants that we are identifying partnerships and other opportunities to sequester and decarbonize, combined with additional carbon initiatives outlined, we are very excited and anticipate significant annual contributions once all of our initiatives are completed just in time to leverage the clean fuel production credit. Our renewable corn oil business continued to reach new highs in terms of yield as additional MSC facilities come…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions.] One moment will be compiled a Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

So, Todd, I guess the first question is thinking about high pro and commercialization. You went through the plant kind of rollout and the facilities that are coming on stream by the end of the year. And I guess I wanted to just clarify in thinking about the contribution from incremental high pro in 2023 as you now have, I think, 330,000 tons of ultra-high protein and as we just think about the incremental profit that, that would generate as you sell those. And along those lines, kind of you talk about the commercialization of the 60% value high pro and kind of where you're seeing customer interest and pricing indications and when that could be a contributor to the top and bottom line.

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. Thanks. So, we expect in 2023 that with the capacity we have online and coming - the capacity we have online at the end of the year, and assets under construction, we will see our first real contribution from this program during the year. So, when you talk about 560 million gallons converted, today, what we're seeing, basis current values on 50 pro is somewhere between kind of a $0.12 and $0.17 a gallon margin available today and oil share is a strong part of that. So, we think there's upside to those opportunities as well, but we're continuing to develop markets around that. So, we sold pet food for 2020, the pet food vertical for 2023. We're starting to see interest in aquaculture for 2023, significant interest in poultry and swine as well for 2023. So, the margins kind of range, depending on what the customer wants from a protein perspective, whether it's 48, 50, 52 or 54. So, as we kind of go into the year and we're thinking about 2023, the starting point, this 560 million gallons converted, with margins ranging from $0.12 to $0.17 a gallon, depending on what we sell and potentially upside from there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jordan Levy with Truist Securities.

Jordan Levy

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Good morning, all, and welcome back to the call, Jim. Okay. I just wanted to start off and ask on your comfort level when it comes to liquidity. When thinking about the next eight quarters or so, we know the focus is getting all the MSC online, still got a good amount of cash, but these swings in the ethanol market can come up and sometimes eat into some of that. So I'm curious how you feel about the capital runway going into 2023? And maybe any updated thoughts on 2023 CapEx and how that's shaping up?

Todd Becker

Management

I'll talk first on - a little bit on the market. So yes, I mean, basically, when we look at the third quarter, between the LCM, which is noncash and obviously, depreciation as well. We really - while we did see some reduction in free cash flow, it wasn't significant enough for us to worry about anything. As we come into the fourth quarter, ethanol margins have turned positive again and have increased over the last week or so. So, from that standpoint, the fourth quarter looks pretty solid from the ability to begin to generate free cash flow again notwithstanding the fact that we're going to continue to execute on our build program by ending the year with the liquidity we have and again, starting to see some opportunities to generate free cash flow and bringing on things like ultra-high protein next year as well as these higher prices in corn oil pricing. And I think what is critical is, obviously, this was a unique third quarter with the record high corn basis, and we were literally dead on right in the middle of the hotspot. We were paying $160 over for corn, almost $160 over for corn, in Southern Minnesota to $100 over corn in Nebraska and down in Tennessee, the end of the crop year was very tight as well. So, we've seen some relief on that, and we've also seen margins expand back to allow the industry to have a margin. And then on top of that, our run rates continue to get better and better, and we will get execution through that as well. Then when you look at all of that and you look at the setup, I think, from the standpoint of liquid fuels, you have a tight or almost unprecedented diesel situation,…

Jim Stark

Management

Yes. Jordan, just to answer some of your question on kind of the 2023 look. If you go back and look at what I said earlier in the call, we kind of brought the top end of our CapEx range down for this year to $280 million at the max. So, when we think and look at the projects that we have outlined for next year, we're probably going to be somewhere in the range of $250 million to $275 million on the spend. And that is certainly, as Todd indicated, including those DCO Tech build-outs that we want to do, which I know we haven't disclosed in the market yet what those costs are, but those are at a lower cost and building a full MSC out there today. So, we're very mindful about the cadence of capital, we feel pretty good about the liquidity position where we are today and how we see the guide. I think I would add on to it, we're bringing up over 200,000-plus tons of high pro here now as we speak, which have not been in our run rate for the last nine months. So that lift plus the additional oil lift should also, as Tod has pointed out on Adam's question, should add at the bottom line when we get into the first part of next year.

Jordan Levy

Analyst · Truist Securities.

It's great color. Just a quick follow-up to that, given you're bringing the MSC systems online and Central City is starting up. I'm just curious how the startup has been going. I know Todd, you mentioned it starts - the corn oil yields start picking up before the protein comes on. But just curious what that time line for start-up has been trending and if that's changing at all?

Todd Becker

Management

No. I mean, our view has always been taking about a quarter to get it fully up and running and ramped up. Sometimes we go a little faster as we learn more. One thing is everybody is well trained to run the systems now because they're trained at other facilities. But what we really wanted to do is start to - when we start commissioning, we literally start making oil on Day 1 and oil share today at $0.80 a pound, you want to make as much as you can because that's helping pay for the investment. In fact, oil alone can almost start to pay for the investment to just be a longer return, but we don't - that's not why we built these. So, the great thing is we get the benefit of that during start up, which early on when we started up Shenandoah, the oil market was very different back then. So, we're pressing hard for oil yield, and then we bring on our protein drivers after that. As we said, Central City literally started up the protein dryer this week, and we started making product, and we're starting to send it to our silos and the products coming in on spec. And now we just continue to ramp higher. So, ramp rates happen very fast once the dryer comes online. Again, in Mount Vernon, we're waiting - it's around a November 15, 20 permit time that the state will allow us to turn the dryer on. And so, we have to wait for that. And sometimes those are a gating item. But in the meantime, again, we're running the system and for any of you that have seen the system, we just - we can continue to run and really extract and segregate that oil…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.

Kristen Owen

Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.

So, you talked about shipping in the fourth quarter to a variety of protein markets, I think swine, poultry among them. How advanced are the discussions with these partners? And can you speak to just generally the cycle times that you're seeing in terms of customer conversations, given the macro backdrop that we're working in.

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. It was hard to get engagement when you would show up and you have Shenandoah running, and you're making 45,000 tons of protein or 50,000 tons of protein. It was hard to get engaged with them to believe you that you can ship a full vessel, full hold of a vessel, somewhere into the world or ship unit trains of this product. And when you want to get - now we have seen other people start up somewhat similar smaller systems, but - and we're dealing with that as well in the market, and there's a little bit of confusion on product. But we're getting through that now when somebody shows up and says, can you ship us this much quantity? And now we can say, yes. And that's the difference. So, now you can get real attention paid to you to get included in real rations across a full system. And we have built a sales team that is highly focused on that customer engagement. So, we can now talk to an aquaculture producer in South America or Southeast Asia or shrimp producer or a salmon producer somewhere in the world. And we can now talk to them about significant volumes available, consistent volumes available, and volumes available with redundancy because you're just not going to get the attention of a customer unless you have three or four or five of these plants running because they are very nervous, you can't execute, much like what we saw with our pet food vertical. So, as you know, pet food was one of our first verticals. And everybody has been trying to get this business from us. And that has been something that we obviously have to deal with. But when the customer that we've developed our relationship with and…

Kristen Owen

Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.

That's super helpful. The related question that I have for you is related to the 2024 EBITDA guidance, which you said you were on track for. I'm wondering if you can give us your updated thoughts just given that you're pricing protein off of that soybean meal base, how you're thinking about protein pricing maybe in that 2024, 2025 time frame across the J-curve, just given the expectation of how much more soybean meal is expected to come online?

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. I mean that's been a question that we've been discussing with a lot of our customers, shareholders, etc. When you go back and you take a history lesson, we brought on in two years, in the ethanol industry, 40 million tons of protein to the world. And while it might have been chunky for a year or two, it was absorbed very fast. In our view is when we look at what's coming online in soybean meal in the next kind of three to five years, somewhere around 15 million to 20 million tons based on the current announced projects. It's our view, and it's just our view, that this will get absorbed into the world very quickly and that this whole glut might last for a quarter or two. But people are building soy crush plants near the river to export because they believe the export market will continue to grow. Argentina continues to be a bit of an issue in the world and it's not really a reliable supplier. And we see protein demand growing at 10 million to 15 million tons per year in terms of demand globally, and that has happened really on average, for the last 10, 15 years, it's been 9 million tons a year, and we've seen some years as high as 12 million to 15 million tons. So, if each year, demand for protein grows somewhere between 10 million and 12 million tons, and we're going to bring on 15 million to 20 million tons of total protein over the next three to five years in soy crushing, our view is that it will get absorbed. And our view is that the market will quickly adjust to that notwithstanding maybe a year of a chunky market. In the meantime, we offer a very different opportunity for our customer. And while the market wants to price this off of soybean meal, we are not a soybean meal replacement, we are an ingredient that provides other added benefits to them. We can continue to go through those benefits with you, but while today, some in the market want to price it off of the replacement of soybean meal in certain applications in other applications, we are a new ingredient that's getting added into their platform. And I'll just have Leslie, maybe give just two or three of the key components of why this product is very different than soybean meal.

Leslie van der Meulen

Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.

Yes. So, I think - The other aspects to take into account is that as a product - as it comes out of our buyer refinery, we have a distinct management it comes to the position on carbon, which is very high on the list of our customers. So, we're getting a lot of traction there where people are looking for not only an advanced nutritional products like our product as it comes out, but also additional benefits. Really to address the other question you had on the J-curve. If you really look at it, as you proceed to get into the higher protein products, the 58%, 60%, you're disconnecting the product from the soybean meal base and you're getting into a complete vision category where you're looking at corn gluten meals, fish meals, other concentrates. And all of that can come from our same system. So, there's no additional requirements from an investment perspective. And last but not least, the fact that our products are fermented, So, it comes in a pre-digested state for a lot of these animals is of extreme importance relatively - relative to solvent extracted products like soybean meal.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow with BMO.

Kenneth Zaslow

Analyst · BMO.

Could I just ask two questions. One is, can you walk us through how you think about 2023 expectations on a consolidated EBITDA? You went through a lot of pieces. I just - my mind isn't that smart to be able to build all together. You just kind of worked that out for us, just kind of thinking about 2023 consolidated EBITDA. How do I think about that?

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. I mean at the last conference we did, we basically said, MSC is in that $90 million to $120 million range opportunity for 2023. Corn oil was about $165 million opportunity. Ag and energy, typically in that $30 million range and the corporate overhead in that $60 million range, getting to a range of what we outlined at the last conference of $225 million to $255 million at the last place we presented this range. There are definitely some moving pieces, some higher prices in corn oil that are potentially an opportunity. If we can maintain this $0.80 a pound pricing through 2023, that will be an opportunity on the upside, and we have to watch pricing obviously on the downside. Same to watch kind of MSC, whether it's 90 to 120 or 80 to 130 , there's ranges in there, but all within that same midrange $2.25 to $2.55. You could say low of 200 plus and a high of 260 plus somewhere in that range. And I think that there's opportunities to even potentially go higher than that. But we're going to kind of leave our - and that doesn't include any ethanol at all. And I think while you can look at Q3 and say, ethanol will never be good again, that's not the case. I mean, ethanol is in positive margins before corn oil this quarter already. We're starting to see the curve recover a little bit in 2023 as the market is very clear that it was undervalued as a molecule and nobody is paying attention to it, and we've seen those curves start to move. So, we don't - while from these numbers, we take the view that we're going to give you - we'll let you decide where ethanol is going to come in, our view is still in the forward curve that ethanol will be not necessarily negative all the time and potentially positive over the average. So, - and that's where we're at today relative to 2023, leaving our 2024 and 2025 guidance intact.

Kenneth Zaslow

Analyst · BMO.

And then how much of a premium pricing you're getting on high pro relative to your - how much of a premium are you getting on your high pro, and is it consistent across your portfolio?

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. So, with every customer and every application, it prices a little bit different. So, when we look at more of the commodity side and what we have to compete against we could run our plants, our MSC plants harder and make a lower protein. So, it's not always necessarily the exact price premium or discount you would get. It's how much margin you're going to make. And So, when we guided you early on when we initially did this investment thesis, we said the uplift is $0.12 to $0.15 a gallon going to $0.15 to $0.20 a gallon over time on our base product. And we believe the 60 pro product is significantly higher than that as we move into those markets over three to five years. We didn't know how long it would take us to produce 60 pro. We now know we can do it in - I'm sorry, in Wood River, and now we feel very confident we could do it in Shenandoah on demand. So, we reached that point now as well. So, when we look at it, we'll price every market different depending on the protein that they want. So, if it's just a commodity protein, we'll run a plant harder instead of making three pounds a bushel, we'll make four pounds a bushel where we'll get higher volumes out of it and will go against a little bit lower protein to be competitive at the 48 or 49 pro market. If somebody wants a 53 to 54 pro market, we can run a little bit slower. And again, it still comes down to that margin of kind of basically what we've outlined. The base margin was 12% to 15%. The opportunity for upside is 15% to 20%, and we're still now - even today where we've seen soybean meal when it collapsed a little bit against replacement corn, but now it's expanded back out, those are margins today that are now possible.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Sorry about before. Todd, I was hoping to maybe clarify just some of those guidance points and make sure we're not double counting. So, you talked about $0.12 to $0.17 per gallon uplift from high pro, but it's also kind of reference to distillers corn oil. So, I just want to be clear, is that $0.12 to $0.17 purely the high protein value, or is it high protein value plus corn oil on the 550 million gallons that's been converted. And I guess, I'm just trying - yes, I'm trying to just clarify --

Todd Becker

Management

I can answer that for you. Yes. No, we've clarified it. I mean we've never wavered from this. The corn oil number we give you is based on the pre MSC volumes that we make across our system, which is close to 300 million pounds a year. So, if you take 300 million pounds, we figured it's $0.12 to $0.15 a pound in cost to make the corn oil. So, if next year, the market is $0.80 a pound and take $0.12 to $0.15 off that, your EBITDA revenue will be 300 - approximately $300 million, maybe a little bit less than that, 290 million pounds times $0.65 to $0.67 a pound, something like that. And So, that's about $180 million, $190 million of opportunity on the high side. On the lower side, obviously, you can just do your math if it gets to $0.50 a pound, you could do your math or $0.60 or $0.70 or $0.80 a pound. So, that is just on the non-MSC corn oil. Included in the MSC has always been a corn oil share. And what we're seeing right now is even with higher corn oil prices, obviously, we feel better now that our systems will run with a higher oil share and even potentially with the shrinking at times, and now today, it's not like that between a distiller's value and a high-protein soybean meal value, those spreads will move in and out. But since we have this baseload of oil earnings in our proteins MSC systems, and we feel confident that - and when we sell something, we're starting to see these margins. So, it's a little bit - it's in both places. If you actually just separated oil today, our oil earnings in separation outside of protein would be higher than what we're giving you, but we included an MSC because MSC is really not just a protein system. It's a separation system that separates lots of different products, including oil and including protein.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum.

Eric Stine

Analyst · Craig-Hallum.

So, maybe just on carbon capture. Obviously, the tax credits, the progress that's being made there in the Midwest Express, you've got that on one hand, but do notice or see that it seems like the local or state level kind of pushback or digging in versus pipelines going through fields, counties, etc. So, obviously, optimistic about this and starting to be a contributor in I believe, 2025. But maybe just your thoughts on the push and pull here as you look at carbon capture going forward.

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. It's an interesting - well, I think, first of all, let's look at the economics of what's at stake here. The new IRA bill, Inflation Reduction Act, is an absolute game changer to our company, to our industry and even to the pipelines that are being built out there. It provides a - finally it provides something to invest behind. And whether it's on a pipeline or it's a direct inject or whether it's something in our Eastern plants where we can capture carbon and move it around and look at that area as well. These are game changers to our industry, not only from the fact that the economics are so significant and the opportunity is so significant, things we've never seen before, but the fact that we will make low-carbon ingredients in protein, in oil and in alcohol, especially in alcohol as we think about alcohol-to-jet later in the decade. So, when you kind of look at what's going on with what we've committed to with six of our, or eight, of our plants on a pipeline, they continue to make great progress. They continue to continue to get higher and higher right-of-way percentages locked down in many, many states, and we continue to support that at all of our plants from our - from the standpoint of trying to get our farmers at least to commit to allowing that pipe to go through their ground, and we've been successful with that. There will always be some holdouts when you build a pipeline. And it's not just - I don't think you can just look at that and say that's immune to just to carbon because there's 40,000 miles of pipe, sitting in the state of Iowa today. And pipelines are going to build a couple of…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America.

Salvator Tiano

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes. One question just a little bit about how - what opportunity you have to manage your ethanol system. You mentioned that you brought forward a lot of maintenance and turnarounds. I'm just wondering, given how extreme the basis was, where are you considering actual shutdowns of facilities? And if this would happen again, let's say, if the corn harvest may not be great if this were to happen again next year, what options do you have to manage your systems to kind of avoid EBITDA losses?

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. I mean this was such a unique - I mean, I guess unique, but more unique than we've ever seen, this inverse. You have to make a decision on any given day to run through the inverse and what's the decision we made. In every year in history, or a lot of years in history, the inverses break and they break hard and they break fast, and you don't want to be off and not running during that time. This one just lasted longer. And our plants just happen to be basically on a square one of the high basis levels in the United States. Fairmont, Minnesota, 150 over in Nebraska 100 over. And the ethanol industry did not adjust to that. Now as we're in Q4, and we still see elevated basis levels and rising in Q4, we see that the need for our product and the need for this molecule to be made and the need for the low carbon oils to be made is driving the fact that ethanol margins are positive before contribution from corn oil at this point. So, I think it was a unique situation. Could it happen again? Yes, we need to grow corn in the United States. We need to get - we need to have a good growing season. We need South America to grow well as well. We need that to come off this year, better than the last couple of years as well. So, we've got to watch that weather closely. But the river system helped a little bit backing up some corn into the system. I think that we're only running at a million barrel pace as an industry, and that's not going to do it. If we can get through winter and not build stocks and…

Salvator Tiano

Analyst · Bank of America.

Okay. Perfect. And I also wanted to ask, you mentioned that with regard to the IRA benefits in a few years, if were to put numbers into your - what you would expect, nobody would believe it. But I think if we were to try to do something like that, I think the idea is that with the new deal the credit is $0.02 a gallon for each point under a CI of 50. So, based on kind of this guidance for ethanol plants, ethanol CI score is right now and what projects you believe you could do, can we actually try to put some numbers to what could happen after 2025?

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. I think we'll start to put that into some of our forward ideas on what is the art of the possible. But when you look at it and you look at it as a starting point, under Argonne GREET, our plants are just above 50 carbon intensity. When you sequester on a pipeline, you reduce it by 25 to 30 points. So, under 45Z, there's 45Qs and they're 45Z and a combination of all that and which one you choose is all subject to interpretation. But in our view is you choose the 45Z, you get your $0.02 a point below 50 on your reduction. Obviously, we share that with our pipeline partner. But on top of that, we can do things like combined heat and power where it's a $0.02 per point again there, and you can maybe reduce your intensity by 5 to 10 points and your capital is kind of a one to two year payback on that basis of this program because you're getting - basically, the U.S. government has put a program in place to incent you to do this. On top of that, you could even go lower on your carbon intensity by doing other things. So, there is a shot that you get into that 0 to 15, 20 CI range to have a low carbon fuel. And that's - it's just such a game changer. And California at that point doesn't really - and California, if you ship there, great, but this green fuel production credit, that's not a California program, that's a U.S. program, and it just allows you to benefit over the whole United States to ship your product. But if you get into a low carbon market like California, Oregon or Washington, there's even upside from there. So, we're talking in the potential of hundreds of millions of dollars of opportunity to go after. I think that's a little bit different from when we first went on the pipeline a couple of years ago, and the only program in place was the 45Q at $50 in a little with LCFS, which has come down significantly. This has really set us up to succeed as a business in carbon reduction as well as our partners that we're going to be partnering with to help sequester our carbon as well to succeed

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Todd Becker, CEO, for closing remarks.

Todd Becker

Management

Yes. Thanks, everybody. Obviously, not the quarter we wanted to have, but the quarter we want to have is starting now and the company we want to have is starting in the fourth quarter. That's why bringing on the rest of our capacity, delivering on five major projects during supply chain and COVID and tightness and all the rest of it that we've been dealing with to deliver these five projects and with the biggest under construction as we speak, we believe we are executing on a strategy we laid out as we approach 2023, 2024 and 2025. And we maintain that the fact that we are developing new markets, unique opportunities, low carbon ingredients, the ability for us to strategically put ourselves as a low carbon feedstock provider to renewable diesel markets, we believe we'll be able to monetize that opportunity going forward for our shareholders. We also believe that decarbonizing this platform will have significant effects on our financial capabilities as well and producing low-carbon alcohols to be made into sustainable aviation fuels from 2025 and on, is positioning us very, very well for the last half of the decade. And on top of that, the dextrose glucose opportunity, we will know a lot more as we continue to build out this first plant. And that's just really our pathway to opportunities that I don't think any of us really thought of when we started this. So, we're in a great place. We're financially sound. We're in a great financial position as we launch into Q4 and going into 2023, we're very excited about the opportunities that are ahead of us, and we appreciate your support. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for participating in today's conference. This now concludes the program. You may now disconnect.