David Mangum
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
So, Glenn, this is David. I think what I'll do, if it works for you, is walk you through the fourth quarter and put the U.K. in context from that perspective, because I'm sure you along with many of your colleagues are thinking through how to put the pieces together for Q4 versus Q3 from a sequential perspective. So if you let me -- indulge me for a second, I'll step back and start with -- we've talked from the beginning of the year that we think a lot of this year's performance and growth is weighted toward the fourth quarter. Obviously, given the nature of our full year guidance and our Q3 performance on track for what we expected, hence, Q4, we think, is on track for what we have expected for quite some time. And really, Q4 performance is down to our expectations for our three biggest markets: that's Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. So I'll do them in that order. We expect Canada to grow modestly in the fourth quarter, to see more stable spread in volume trends there, as we've discussed all along. If we do, then we expect some help from Q4 seasonality. It'll give us some relatively substantial in Canadian terms sequential revenue and contribution improvement for the fourth quarter. In the U.S., we obviously expect that the typically strong fourth quarter from our ISO and our Direct Card Processing business, which we think will be augmented by the fact we'll see the bulk of our -- what we projected as double-digit gaming revenue growth in the fourth quarter, including the implementation and having live the large customer wins that you guys are all familiar with from earlier in the year. And then we obviously still expect a strong fourth quarter from our Greater Giving business, where an enormous percentage of our annual revenue comes in as the auctions hit sort of the spring season, which leads us towards your direct question, the U.K. And here in the U.K. in the fourth quarter, we're looking for good performance from the core business. And then to your question directly, we are putting in place our new pricing mechanisms at the beginning of Q4, so it'll be in place for the entire quarter, given that we've now successfully executed the back-end payment processing platform migration. So out of that, we should see substantial enhancement to revenue and earnings dollars and growth. To help you size that a little bit, if you're looking at your model, let's talk earnings now for a second, you're dealing with sequential uptick in earnings that's fairly substantial. The U.K. is the single largest component, but we do see other sizable contributions from the Q4 performance we expect from the U.S. and from Canada. So splitting the sequential improvement among those three, but with more weight given to the U.K. for Q4 than either of U.S. or Canada, it's how I suggest you should think about modeling, and that sort of is Q4 at a revenue level. Maybe I'll let Paul talk a little bit about the dynamics in the market overall.