Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Canada Goose Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Amy Schwalm. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator and good morning, everyone. With me are Dani Reiss, Chairman and CEO; Jonathan Sinclair, EVP and CFO; and Carrie Baker, President. Our call today, including the Q&A portion contains forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement, including our financial outlook is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Certain material factors and assumptions were considered and applied in making these forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these forward-looking statements, factors and assumptions is available in our earnings press release issued this morning, as well as the Risk Factors section of our most recent Annual Report filed with the securities regulators. These documents are also available on the Investor Relations section of our website. The forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today and we undertake no obligation to update or revise them. Lastly, our commentary includes certain non-IFRS financial measures, which are reconciled at the end of our earnings press release. With that, I will turn the call over to Dani.

Thank you, Amy, and good morning, everyone. Earlier, we released our Q4 and fiscal 2022 results, as well as our outlook for 2023. Despite the challenges in today's environment, I'm proud that we are closing the year with record sales breaking the $1 billion mark for the first time. We are also ending fiscal 2022 with confidence and conviction in our brand, our business and our team. It's against this backdrop that I will share our plans to achieve an even stronger outlook for the year ahead. We are excited about the key investments and progress we have made to significantly accelerate earnings growth in fiscal 2023. We expect to generate between 19% and 21% EBIT margins and revenue between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion. This translates to EPS growth in the range of 47% to 74%. Turning to our results from the fourth quarter. From a geographic perspective, our retail performance in North America was the biggest driver of growth. Consumer confidence remains strong and shoppers have returned to pre-pandemic trends. We saw a similar environment in the U.K., which drove immediate increase. In the Rest of Europe, we saw softer local and international traffic trends. APAC was the only region that declined due to ongoing COVID restrictions, including store closures in Mainland China. The Chinese government has a strong track record of being very proactive in containing COVID outbreaks. We do not expect the prevailing circumstances to have a meaningful impact on results in our busiest season, which is reflected in our outlook. Recently, many peers have pointed to continued production and supply chain challenges, as well as logistical delays. This was not a factor for us in the quarter, nor do we expect it to affect the year ahead. We continue to be uniquely insulated against supply…

Thank you, Dani, and good morning, everyone. With fiscal '22 wrapped up, we're pleased with our momentum and optimistic about the year ahead. Despite new waves of disruption in certain markets, we believe current trends in our business are strong. Consumer behavior and retail traffic are normalizing in many markets and our unique supply chain has become an even greater advantage. Carrying this momentum into the year ahead, we have many powerful levers to grow and to increase profitability. First, I will start by looking back at the fourth quarter. The current quarter ended on April 3, 2022, and that's one week later than the comparative period. The seasonality of our business makes the impact of this significant. For that reason, we have also provided figures that use the same set of trading weeks in both periods. We believe that this better reflects our trajectory going into fiscal 2023. On a reported basis, total revenue in Q4 increased by 7%. At a channel level, DTC growth was 8% and wholesale growth was 4%. Using the same trading weeks in both periods, total revenue would have increased by 24%, with DTC growth of 28%, and wholesale growth of 8%. Looking at gross margin, it's great to see the power of our algorithm working so well in these times. Both DTC and wholesale gross margins expanded, compared to the prior year, coming in at 76.1% and 33.6% respectively. Going further down the P&L, adjusted EBIT margin expanded to 5.6% and adjusted EPS was $0.04. For the full-year, both metrics landed at the top end of our outlook ranges with adjusted EBIT margin of 15.9% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.09. Moving to our outlook for fiscal 2023, the two things that stand out are the breadth of our opportunities and the…

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Hey, good morning, everyone. First, just congrats to Carrie, kind of curious, stepping into the new role, what your biggest priorities are to take the brand to the next level? And then maybe, Jonathan, just more specifically on the outlook. Thank you so much for all the quarterly cadence, that’s helpful. But the comment on Mainland China, can you just expand on how we should think about the bridge from 2Q to 3Q? You're talking about returning to regular trading by peak season. So does that mean you're assuming continued business under pressure in the second quarter? And when you say returning to normal, I think, something along those lines for peak season, is that relative to pre-COVID levels? Just trying to understand exactly what is embedded for China during your peak season sales? Thank you.

Good morning, Ike. Thanks for that. So I'm very excited to take on the new role and to work alongside Dani as a day-to-day we run global commercial operations, which will give him more bandwidth for long-term strategic initiatives. So when I think about all of the commercial opportunities in front of us, my biggest priority is to make sure that we execute with excellence, and that means being purposeful, disciplined about creating impact in everything we do. So both from a consumer perspective but also from a financial perspective. And the great news is we have an incredible brand, a strong business model and an incredible team to bring that all to fruition.

Okay. And if I may, let me just talk a little bit about China. Obviously, it's -- we've seen Mainland China being negative in Q4. And right now, there are closures, there are disruptions in the current quarter. And what we're looking for is a gradual build back as China opens up again. Now, what we do know is that we've seen these types of disruptions before and we've seen that they've been typically quite temporary. And Mainland China has proved to be a market, which has bounced back quite quickly from. So in other thinking, we are, obviously, expecting Q1 to be heavily impaired. And then as we move forward, Q2 showing that gradual improvement and a normal level of business in Q3.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Oliver Chen from Cowen. Your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. This is Katy on for Oliver. Thanks so much for taking our question. I would love to know a little bit more about the wholesale channel and how that's sort of progressing versus your expectations? And sort of what are you seeing within the wholesale channel? And is there any sort of deterioration on the consumer front there? Or is it just about in line with your DTC channel? Thank you so much.

Katy, thank you for your question. Our wholesale channel is progressing as expected and very well. Last year, our sell-throughs at wholesale were very, very strong and we're happy with that this year. Our wholesale order book has increased as expected and remain in single-digits, and we will continue to strategically work with wholesalers to enhance the valuable ramp. And consumers have been responding very well and consumers in the United States is -- the consumer behavior has returned to pre-pandemic levels and United States is absolutely much harder and we're really excited to see that both on our own channel and through wholesale channels.

I'd add that the wholesale assumptions behind our guidance, obviously, pounded on our order book and so we feel we're in very good shape.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Komp from Baird. Your line is now open.

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you. I want to ask about the initial revenue growth guidance for 18% to 27% growth. Could you maybe just help bridge the difference, compared to your typical thinking? I think pre-COVID several years ago, you have three-year targets closer to the mid to high-teens. So maybe if you could reconcile the difference this year? And then on the earnings growth going forward, given that the EBIT margin still is quite a bit below peak, do you think there could be several years ahead where you see faster than the typical, I think, it was 20% earnings growth that you used to outline?

So taking those in sequence, as far as the revenue growth is concerned, we're looking at a healthy level of comp growth underpinning how we see the business developing. We're very clear about our pricing power. We're very clear that, that's going to enable us to see some components that together with some unit growth, as well in our like-for-like stores alongside, of course, the development of the retail network. We've already talked about wholesale in that context. We – obviously, we've shown a range life has its uncertainties at the moment, but we feel pretty good about this level of growth in this environment and we see this as very consistent with our longer-term ambitions. On earnings, clearly, getting ourselves back to the 20% mark and beyond is very important, it’s something that's a big focus for us. This year marks an important step in that journey, but it's an important step. It's not the end growth. And so as the business continues to grow, I see this is something that we should expect to see continue for some time to come.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Binetti from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Hey, guys. Thanks for all the additional detail in the press release on the guidance here. Very helpful. Maybe -- I know you said -- I think you said $60 million, $65 million in distributor change. I just want to clarify, maybe you could help us think about how much is incremental in the Japan, Korea change to the revenues you're generating last year under the old distributor model and how that change influences the -- how much that change influences the overall company margins accretive or dilutive, I guess? And then I think when we talked a few quarters ago and in the last quarter, you thought maybe margins could get above 20% this year. You talked about a lot of room for expansion. I thought 20% was a low watermark. I see you have at least low end of the range, a little bit below that right now. I'm more wondering, if you've embedded some incremental conservatism since we talked about that or relative to China or anything going on or if there are some new costs that you've contemplated that you want to go after for the business this year?

Okay. Thanks, Mike. So I'm going to -- let's talk about JV, first of all. Obviously, there's an optical change in the reported level of revenues, which is roughly doubled. And so that essentially is -- if you like the overnight impact on the revenue from that market. Over time, we see this as a very high EBIT margin market and we're very optimistic about it. We see that founded on the development of DTC is an important component of how we participate there, that's how the Chinese market is structured. And we expect to see a lot of activity there. Obviously, JV is presently a month in, so it's early days, but we're very committed towards them about how we see that changing. When it comes to margins overall, as you just have me described, 20% point on the journey, we're dealing with some uncertainties. Frankly, in this quarter, we're not expecting to do any material business in Mainland China, and that's embedded in the comments that we already made. And therefore, we'll accommodate in that in the ranges that we've given. So as things improve and we're confident they will, then we resume our journey towards the sort of levels we've enjoyed in the past. The fundamental earnings model here hasn't changed and just these circumstances we need to navigate.

Yes, on the second Jonathan [Technical Difficulty] fundamentals have not changed. Pre-pandemic, we were in the 25% range, and we expect to get back there and beyond that and continue on our journey towards 30% as international tourism and profit trends are back to normal to pre-pandemic world.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Meaghen Annett from TD Securities. Your line is now open.

Thank you. Good morning. So looking at the balance sheet, still in a position of strength. Can you give us an update on your capital allocation priorities, specifically how you're thinking about share repurchases in fiscal '23? And is there anything we should be thinking about in terms of major capital investments forthcoming near term? Thank you.

So our capital allocating priorities haven't changed in the sense that the best use of cash for us is to invest in this business. We continue to enjoy very high ROIs in our store estate, and obviously, that's an area we continue to invest in. The -- we also invest in our manufacturing facilities, as well as part of scaling the business as we continue to grow. But fundamentally, we don't see a very different level of underlying capital expenditure [Technical Difficulty]. To the extent that we have -- we build surplus capital up in the business, then we look at it how we -- how else we might allocate it. You've seen in the past, when we believe there are opportunities, we've been in the market and conducted a buyback. The current NCIB is fully exhausted and so we'll keep that under review over time.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brooke Roach from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Good morning. Thank you so much for taking our question. Can you provide some color on the assumptions that underpin your confidence in achieving a low to high-teens comp improvement in your DTC business this year? How does that break down by geography? And then specific to the North American domestic consumer, where momentum has just been particularly strong, how are you planning the year in that region? Thank you.

So when -- in terms of the comparable growth, we are assuming two or three things. First of all, we've got the normal impact of pricing, we're developing our product categories, so we expect unit growth. But I think the other dimension is, of course, we do expect a gradual resumption of traffic to continue, and therefore, that's something that we are factoring in as well. We don't feel that this level of comparable growth is egregious as the business continues to go back, and therefore, we feel pretty confident about it. I'm going to pass over to Carrie to talk a little bit about the North American piece.

So for North America, we see continued growth. Obviously, we're very strong at home in a mature market, but the U.S., in particular, I would say, is a market where it's very early days. We have strong opportunities. We have opportunities to get outside of the Northeast, and that's what we've already seen through this year and expect that to continue next year as well.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adrienne Yih from Barclays. Your line is now open.

Good morning. It's great to see the progress. Dani, I wanted to -- if you, kind of, dig in on the comments that you made about the pricing. So where are you relative to 2019 pricing levels? What is your initial price increases for 2022? And I know you don't have to give them and maybe just some color because I imagine you don't want to give the actual number? And then maybe, Jonathan, can you -- relative to average unit cost, you had said that the price increases would be above kind of the inflationary aspect of it. Can you give any color on maybe how that impacts the flow through of the basis points on gross margin? Thank you very much.

Thank you for your question. So our ability to continue to take price year-after-year is one that's underpinned by the value that we provide in our products. Every year, we [Technical Difficulty] and that is because across our best-in-class made in Canada we they perform function first, and I don't believe that there's a better value to product in the market of our kind today. And that's what enables us to have the levers to increase our prices as needed.

And I think when it comes to thinking about the cost pressures, they're not that significant. Remember, we're manufacturing a lot of this ourselves. So that, that helps on one dimension a little bit. We obviously -- we do see some cost price pressure in raw materials. It's not particularly significant. But when you're dealing with margins that are fundamentally wide in first place and relatively high AURs, then actually, you don't really see too much pressure on it. The other point is I'll remind you the algorithm that we use is one of tailwinds and headwinds. The tailwinds include pricing, include scale, include sourcing, and that -- and we invest, of course, in input price inflation, but also in new product development and new category development. And therefore, at a gross margin, at a channel level, we see management's job of keeping the margins where they are and in continuing to invest in the development of the product categories.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Camilo Lyon from BTIG. Your line is now open.

Thanks and good morning, everyone. I think you mentioned that you're planning on opening 13 new stores. Can you tell us where the stores are planning to open? And then I think, Jonathan, you talked about Q3 returning to normalized levels of productivity in China. Can you just remind us what those look like or actually, if that's true for your assumptions on a store productivity level for China and how that might compare to a more mature market level of productivity like in North America?

Thank you, Camilo, for your question. So we're currently planning to open 13 new stores around the world. It's -- these are relatively balanced geographically, all including significant contributions from the States, EMEA and Mainland China and Japan, and it's balanced across all those markets and --

Okay. And then when it comes to China, I think the other thing that's really important to remember is that we have enjoyed and continue to enjoy similar levels of sales density in Mainland China that we do in the rest of the world. So when that business is not impaired in terms of traffic, that's what we enjoy, that's what we expect to enjoy this year.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robby Ohmes from Bank of America. Your line is an open.

Hi, thanks for taking our question. This is Alex Perry on for Robby. Just first, I wanted to ask, what does the guidance assume for North America store traffic? Maybe I think you talked about some green shoots you're seeing in terms of the international tourists. Maybe give us a little more color there? And are you back to pre-pandemic traffic levels in your domestic stores despite the absence of the international travel -- travelers? Thank you.

So as far as North America, generally, I'm going to segment that into the U.S. and Canada. I think when it comes to the U.S., we already talked about the fact that we were seeing a very strong rebound in traffic and pre-pandemic levels of sales. And we talked about that extensively at the end of Q3. I think that's something we expect to continue. Remember, we did all of that with pretty much domestic frankly. I think when it comes to Canada, when it comes to the domestic component of traffic that is coming back to where it was. Obviously, international will come back when it comes back.

Perfect, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Petrie from CIBC. Your line is now open.

Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on [Technical Difficulty] question [Technical Difficulty] I wonder if you can sort of share any commentary with regards to the sale mix and the sales growth, sort of, by category versus other markets? So I'm not looking for specific numbers, of course, but just on a relative basis, is there any difference in the take-up on lightweight down, accessories or footwear in Canada versus other markets? And then also appreciate that you take a measured approach to new product launches. But just wondering if you could share any comments with regards to the response to the footwear launch and anything you can share with regards to your expectations for growth in fiscal '23? Thanks.

I think the important thing to understand here, Mark, is that it's less about the geography and more about the channel. So in other words, what's important to us is how we tell the stories around our new product categories, how we build out consumer franchise and how we make those adjacencies work in our stores around the world. And therefore, we -- that's something that we deploy in Canada and we deploy in the U.S., that we deploy in Europe and we deploy in Asia, and that's the global footprint that we see. Therefore, we don't see a differential in how consumers react to it, because it's all about how we tell them the stories. We may see a difference in how consumers react in wholesale versus on our own stores, because obviously, we're curating the offer much more in our own stores. And indeed, we will typically privilege our own channels as we introduce new product.

Yes, Jonathan, just to add to that on top -- and to speak a little bit to footwear, it's a really exciting new category for us, which has done well. It has brought a completely new perspective to the marketplace. It exists in a space in the market where I believe there's significant white space and there are comparable products. But at this stage, the collection is small in terms of sales distribution. We start small as typically how we manage new categories and we grow into them. That means it's not a significant revenue contributor today, but we do expect that it will be material contributor to the long term. This is standard. This is part of our playbook, which is to take a disciplined gradual approach to building new categories, and I'm really excited about what lies ahead because I know that this category is a well-balanced category.

Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Jay Sole from UBS. Your line is now open.

Great, thank you so much for taking my question. I guess, I was just hoping you can elaborate a little bit on your comment that your outlook does not depend on a 100% return of international traffic or return of tourism from China. Can you just maybe tell us what the incremental sales impact would be if there was a 100% return of international traffic or return from tourism from China and then sort of compare that to the dollar figure that you expect in the guidance from those factors?

Thank you, Jay, for your question. I mean, we didn't feel it was responsible to include a full return of international tourism from China. It's really anybody's guess as to when that's going to happen. A lots of people have got and lot of years and we did not include any of that in our outlook. So I would say that if it were to all return, whenever that might be at whatever point in time, I would imagine there would be a pretty significant amount of [indiscernible]. But at this point, it's not returned, and we've assumed none of it in our guidance.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.