Jonathan Sinclair
Analyst · Cowen. Your line is open
Thank you, Dani, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We delivered a strong performance in the third quarter, with revenue and earnings well above pre-pandemic levels. Brand momentum was exceptional, and our DTC-led distribution was highly productive. With a one-of-a-kind supply chain, we fulfilled peak demand without material constraints or profitability impacts. Following new COVID-19 variant outbreaks, we have seen lower-than-expected revenue growth and traffic in Asia-Pacific and in EMEA at the end of Q3 and into the current quarter. This has been partially offset by outperformance in the United States. We believe that these disruptions are temporary and contained. Our operating environment remains more favorable than it was last year, and we're making great progress on our strategic agenda. Looking at the quarter in detail, total revenue increased by 26.5% to $586 million, excluding the impact of temporary PPE sales last year. As fiscal 2022 is a 53-week year, the additional week in Q3 provided $40.9 million of revenue. In the quarter, DTC led the way, increasing by 49% to $445 million. Higher revenue from existing stores, e-Commerce growth and retail expansion were all significant contributors. Retail productivity improved sharply alongside 28% digital growth on top of last year’s outsized gains. This is a great proof point for the channel and for our brand in our most important quarter. As planned, wholesale revenue decreased 15% to $137 million. Throughout the year, we’ve spoken about a normalization of timing with the shift back into Q2. This was driven by partners requesting shipments earlier. Stripping away these ships, our expectation of mid-single-digit growth annually has not changed. We are finishing the full winter with significantly higher sell-out than last year, and we’re excited to build upon this in fiscal 2023. From a products perspective, our year-round lifestyle relevance continues to grow. Total non-parka revenue increased by 75%. Vests and lightweight jackets with standout performance alongside encouraging contributions from apparel, headwear and footwear. Parkas also grew strongly. Geographically, certain markets have slowed down, while others have accelerated. These shifts have been in line with the new variants and restrictions, and they reflect broader industry trends. In Mainland China, DTC revenue increased by 35%. Following a very strong November, we observed a slowdown in store traffic in December, which carried through into the current quarter. Underlying demand remained strong, highlighted by the low 60s growth rate we achieved online. We’ve also seen sequential improvement in our retail performance over the last few weeks heading into Lunar New Year. Revenue in EMEA increased by 16%. Like Asia Pacific, it grew at a meaningful but interrupted pace. The absence of international traffic has been a headwind for major global shopping destinations like Paris and Milan. The restrictions and disruptions have also emerged in markets like Germany. None of this changes are long-term conviction in the region and its upside in a recovery. On the other hand, North America has accelerated. In Canada, revenue growth was 32%, excluding temporary PPE sales last year. E-commerce increased in the low double digits, together with much improved retail performance. Being fully operational provided an incremental uplift as we face closures in Ontario and Quebec during this period last year. Revenue in the United States increased by 26%. Our established retail stores were all near or at pre-pandemic levels, and digital growth was in the high 30s. This highlights the upside of other regions when retail traffic normalizes. Remember, too, that this performance was almost entirely driven by domestic demand. Moving on to gross margin. DTC came in at 77.1%, while wholesale was 50.2%. Excluding temporary wage subsidies, both are slightly up versus last year and well above two years ago. We have a long track record of funding new product and cost increases without margin compression. With our successful lifestyle eclosion and a more inflationary environment, our algorithm is now even more valuable. Total SG&A was $184 million, up 27% from last year. As we’ve discussed throughout this year, we plan to slow down SG&A growth and expand profitability in our peak selling season. Adjusted EBIT margin expanded 200 basis points to 35.3% and adjusted EPS increased 42% to $1.42. Finishing with our revised outlook for fiscal 2022, this reflects lower revenue in Asia Pacific and EMEA in the current quarter. We now expect the following ranges for our key metrics. Total revenue of $1.09 billion to $1.105 billion. This assumes approximately 68% DTC mix with 6% to 7% wholesale revenue growth. Adjusted EBIT of $165 million to $175 million representing an EBIT margin of 15.1% to 15.8% and adjusted EPS of $1.02 to $1.11. At a macro level, this outlook assumes no material increase in pandemic or economic disruptions relative to what we’re experiencing today. Backing out our year-to-date results with one quarter left in the year, our annual outlook implies the following revenue levels for the fourth quarter. Total revenue of $215 million to $230 million. This represents slightly positive year-over-year growth. Relative to the comparative quarter, this 13-week period starts a week later. What that means is it’s shifting one week from a high-volume trading period, which represented $40.9 million in total revenue this year. In contrast, the extra week in the shift at the end of this fiscal period is not meaningful from a revenue perspective. This assumes approximately 84% DTC mix with slightly negative to flat wholesale revenue growth. In Q4 of last year, e-commerce growth is a high watermark of 123% due to closures and late demand timing. We expect e-commerce to normalize and be largely in line with last year with a fully operational retail fleet, playing a much larger role in our DTC growth. The temporary reductions we have faced do not change our optimism for fiscal 2023. We will share our views at year end in detail. As we see it today, there is no reason why we can’t have strong growth and margin expansion even without a full retail recovery globally. Our DTC journey continues. Our brand momentum is robust. Our lifestyle relevance is expanding. Our one-of-the-kind supply chain and our pricing power gives us stability and flexibility in a disrupted retail environment. I look forward to updating you on our plans on our next call. And with that, I will pass over to the operator to begin Q&A.