Dan Sheehan
Analyst · CreditSights
Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. The fourth quarter was another excellent quarter for Genworth, with net income of $163 million and adjusted operating income of $164 million, or $0.32 per share. In the fourth quarter, we also continued to make significant progress on our debt management strategy. In this quarter alone, we fully retired $400 million of debt due in August 2023 and reduced our February 2024 debt maturity by $118 million for a total of $518 million. Even with this debt management activity, we ended the quarter with a solid holding company cash and liquidity position of $356 million. Turning to the operating companies. Our mortgage insurance subsidiary Enact Holdings posted its earnings call earlier this morning and provide a detailed update on its results for the quarter, so I'll focus on the key highlights. For the fourth quarter, Enact reported adjusted operating income of $125 million to Genworth, and a strong loss ratio of 3% driven in part by a $32 million pre-tax reserve release on pre-COVID delinquencies. I'll note that, Genworth's fourth quarter adjusted operating income excludes 18.4% of minority interest, which accounted for $29 million of adjusted operating income. Last quarter, minority interest accounted for only $4 million of adjusted operating income, due to the timing of the initial public offering in September. Absent minority interest, Enact's adjusted operating income increased largely driven by the favorable reserve development in the quarter. Enact saw a 9% year-over-year increase in insurance in-force growth driven in part by $21 billion of new insurance written in the quarter. In addition, Enact finished the quarter with an estimated PMIER sufficiency ratio of 165%, or approximately $2 billion of published requirements. The decline in the PMIER sufficiency versus the prior quarter was largely driven by the dividend they paid in the quarter. Subsequent to the quarter in January, Enact executed an excess of loss reinsurance transaction, which will cover the 2022 production and is expected to provide approximately $300 million in PMIERs credit. Reinsurance transactions are a key part of their credit risk transfer program that is designed to provide cost-effective capital relief and reduce loss volatility. We're very pleased with Enact's performance for the full year and the fourth quarter, which included the payment of its first dividend as a public company. The $1.23 per share dividend generated $163 million for Genworth. With respect to our expectations for future dividends from Enact, Enact is evaluating its dividend policy and expects to initiate a regular common dividend around mid-2022. Turning to the US life insurance segment. We reported $41 million of adjusted operating income in the quarter, driven by the continued strength of LTC earnings from the multiyear rate action plan and variable investment income. Mortality continued to be elevated in the quarter in part from COVID-19, which benefited LTC earnings but negatively impacted our life insurance results. Results in the quarter also included charges in our term universal life and universal life insurance products of $102 million related to assumption updates and DAC recoverability testing. In our long-term care insurance business, we reported strong results with fourth quarter adjusted operating income of $119 million compared to $133 million reported in the prior quarter, and $129 million in the prior year. As we discussed last quarter, while our overall GAAP margins are positive, we've established a GAAP-only profits followed by losses reserve, which covers projected losses in the future. This reserve reduced LTC earnings by $121 million after tax during the quarter. As of year-end, the pre-tax balance of the profits followed by losses reserve was $1.3 billion, up from $625 million at year-end 2020. Our fourth quarter adjusted operating earnings from in-force rate actions were $296 million after tax and before applying profits followed by losses, which increased from $225 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. Page 12 of the investor presentation illustrates the strong full year earnings trends from our in-force rate actions and a $1.2 billion benefit in 2021. The legal settlement on our LTC Choice I policy forms continued to favorably impact our results by $57 million or $14 million after profits followed by losses this quarter. The Choice I legal settlement applies to approximately 20% of our LTC policyholders. As of quarter end, approximately 65% of the settlement class had reached the end of this election period. We currently expect the remaining class members to make their elections over the course of this year. There are two other similar legal settlements pending. The one for our PCS I and PCS II policy forms comprises approximately 15% of our LTC policyholders and is subject to final court approval. Should the settlement be approved in the near term, we expect claimants to start making their elections in mid to late 2022. Additionally, we've reached an agreement in principle for a settlement on our Choice II policy forms which covers approximately 35% of our LTC policyholders or as many policies as the two other settlements combined. The Choice II settlement is still subject to the execution of a formal agreement in the court schedule and ultimate approval. Subject to these events, we anticipate that we'll begin implementing an approved settlement by early 2023. While our financial results in 2021 have been favorably impacted by the Choice I legal settlement and the other two settlements are expected to positively impact future financial results, it's difficult to quantify their overall impact on our financials, as full implementation will take several years that is subject to specific policyholder elections. In terms of LTC invoice rate action approvals, it was a record year for Genworth due in part to regulators' recognition of the importance of actuarially justified rate increases for Genworth and the industry. During the quarter, we received approvals impacting approximately $223 million of premiums with a weighted average approval rate of 36%. On a year-to-date basis, we received approvals impacting nearly $1.1 billion in premiums with a weighted average approval rate of 37%. This is favorable compared to the prior year when we received approvals impacting $1 billion in premiums with a weighted average approval rate of 34%. We experienced favorable variable investment from LTC again this quarter, reflecting higher limited partnership income, gains on treasury, inflation-protected securities, bond calls and mortgage prepayments. While we saw a very strong variable net investment income in 2021 which is not subject to reductions from profits followed by losses, we do expect this investment performance to moderate overtime. Claim terminations in the fourth quarter were higher versus the prior quarter and lower versus the prior year, as noted on Page 8. We made a minimal adjustment to our previously established COVID-19 mortality reserve for the quarter, decreasing the cumulative balance to $134 million. As the pandemic continues, mortality experience may fluctuate and the COVID-19 mortality adjustment would be reduced if mortality experience becomes unfavorable. Turning to Page 11 of the investor presentation. New active claims are higher than the prior year, but new claims incidence experience remains lower than pre-pandemic levels and continues to drive favorable incurred, but not reported or IBNR claim reserve development. In the fourth quarter given the gradual increase in incidents, we reduced our COVID-19 IBNR claim reserve by $34 million resulting in a cumulative balance of $75 million. We completed our annual review of key actuarial assumptions in each of our product lines during the fourth quarter. Our assumptions for LTC claim reserves or disabled life reserves, held up in the aggregate and the margin for policies not yet on claim, included in our active life reserves remains positive. Therefore, we did not increase our reserves and there was no P&L impact from these updates. Please note that the COVID-19 pandemic impact to the businesses were not considered when reviewing our long-term assumptions as they are not currently expected to be indicative of future trends or loss performance. As part of the LTC active life margin testing process, we reviewed our long-term assumptions relative to experience. During this year's assessment, we updated several assumptions with respect to lapses, mortality, expenses, interest rates and most significantly benefit utilization trends. Margin testing results for the LTC block are shown on Page 9. These results remain positive in both the historical and acquired blocks. The combined margin was approximately $500 million to $1 billion, which is consistent with the prior year's range. As Tom outlined given the expected future increase in the cost of care, we expect our long-term benefit utilization to trend higher than previously assumed. This is one of our key long-term assumptions that impacts trends modeled over a 60-year period. Prior to this update, we had assumed that the long-term benefit utilization would improve over time. Based on our experience, it has not improved as much as we predicted, largely due to the cost of care growth driven both by broad-based inflation and minimum wage increases in some large states among other factors. Therefore, we've increased the outlook for our future benefit utilization trend. Since margin testing remained positive, we're not required to increase our LTC active life reserves for policies not yet on claim, as the model benefit from adjustments to our multi-year rate action plan offsets the approximately $4 billion impact from the assumption updates. I'm pleased that our progress on the multi-year rate action plan and other risk mitigation actions combined with future actions have allowed us to absorb these assumption updates without incurring any charges in our financial results. A multi-year rate action plan is essential to our strategy of proactively managing and mitigating adverse emerging experience. And with this updated trend assumption, it further emphasizes the ongoing need for rate actions. The success of the multi-year rate action plan has strengthened our ability to pay claims in two ways; first, there is the increased premium revenue; second, in connection with approved rate actions and the legal settlements we've managed our long-term exposure to generous product features like lifetime benefits and compound inflation riders, as policyholders have elected benefit reductions to mitigate rate increases. As evidenced on Page 13, 44% of policyholders have selected reduced benefit or non-forfeiture options, which reduces our long-term risk. Our peak claim mirrors are over a decade away and as always we'll continue to monitor emerging experience to help evaluate the need for future changes. We now project the need in aggregate for approximately $28.7 billion in LTC premium increases and benefit reductions on a net present value basis, which is important in our progress toward achieving economic breakeven on our legacy LTC block. While this amount has increased as a result of the assumption update, we are over two-thirds of the way there having achieved $19.6 billion in rate actions since 2012. The $19.6 billion we've achieved has grown significantly since last year in part, because of the value of our 2021 rate action approvals of $2.3 billion. Additionally, the benefit utilization trend assumption update for higher cost of care growth increased the value of our previously achieved rate actions by $2.8 billion. The remaining amount we have left to achieve is $9 billion, which has grown from last year, largely to offset the unfavorable impact from the assumption updates. Based on our proven track record and the strength of the multi-year rate action team and their process, our ability to close the remaining amount is achievable. As I've shared before, we're managing the US life insurance companies on a stand-alone basis. Through capital and surplus rate increases and reduced benefit options we're working to ensure our ability to pay LTC benefits over the long-term. Turning to our life insurance products. We reported a fourth quarter adjusted operating loss of $98 million, compared to operating losses of $68 million in the prior quarter and $20 million in the prior year. Overall mortality for the fourth quarter continued to be elevated versus expectations though improved versus the prior quarter and prior year. The fourth quarter included approximately $27 million after tax and COVID-19 claims based upon death certificates received to date. As part of our annual assumption review we made assumption updates on the term universal and universal life products as well for both mortality and interest rates, which resulted in a combined unfavorable impact of $70 million in the fourth quarter. In our universal life products, we recorded a $32 million after-tax charge for DAC coverability testing, compared to $30 million in the prior quarter and $50 million in the prior year. These charges continue to reflect unfavorable mortality experience and block runoff. In fixed annuities, adjusted operating earnings of $20 million for the quarter included the benefit from favorable mortality in the single premium immediate annuity products. In the runoff segment, our adjusted operating income was $16 million for the fourth quarter compared to $11 million in the prior quarter and $13 million in the prior year. Variable annuity performance was driven by equity market performance, which was favorable versus the prior quarter though less favorable than the prior year. For the US life insurance company, statutory financials and cash flow testing results remain in process and will be made available with our year-end statutory filings. We expect consolidated capital in Genworth Life Insurance Company or GLIC as a percentage of RBC to be approximately 290% at December 31st in line with the 291% at September 30th. This is due in part to the expected negative impacts of the life assumption updates and cash flow testing, offset by the $170 million statutory capital benefit from the life block reinsurance transaction completed in the quarter. RBC is significantly higher than the 229% at December 31 2020 due primarily to the favorable LTC statutory earnings in the year. This increase was driven by the benefit from in-force rate actions including the impacts from the Choice I legal settlement, favorable investment performance and favorable terminations. We expect GLIC consolidated year-end capital in surplus to be close to $3 billion as we've seen a strong trend throughout the year. Pages 15 and 16 highlight recent trends in statutory performance for LTC and GLIC consolidated on a quarter lag basis due to the timing of when statutory results are finalized. Statutory earnings for LTC are generally higher than GAAP earnings as the concept of profits followed by losses that I discussed earlier does not exist under statutory accounting. Statutory earnings are also aligned to taxable earnings, which have resulted in strong cash tax payments to the parent holding company throughout 2021. Rounding out our results, we reported an adjusted operating loss in the Corporate and Other segment of $18 million, which was an improvement of $31 million from the prior year reflecting lower interest expense given the reduction of holding company debt as well as lower corporate expenses. Turning to the holding company. We ended the quarter with $356 million of cash and liquid assets. Page 17 provides a detailed cash activity for the quarter. Key items in the quarter included the debt reduction of $518 million of principal; the dividend from Enact of $163 million; and $75 million in the intercompany cash tax payments reflecting strong underlying taxable income from Enact and the U.S. life insurance business. The holding company received $370 million in cash taxes in 2021. We will continue to utilize holding company tax assets in 2022 and anticipate that the holding company will receive approximately $200 million in cash taxes in 2022, subject to ultimate taxable income generated. Given our current tax position, we do not anticipate paying federal taxes in the near term. In closing, when I think about where we started 2021, I'm incredibly proud of our financial results and the progress we've made against our strategic priorities. For the full year 2021, net income was very strong at $904 million versus $178 million in 2020 and adjusted operating income was $765 million versus $310 million in 2020. Enact contributed $520 million in adjusted operating earnings to Genworth in 2021 and we're very pleased with LTC's $445 million in adjusted operating earnings. While statutory results are still in progress, we estimate full year after-tax statutory net income for the U.S. life insurance business of $660 million, driven by LTC's estimated $910 million of pre-tax statutory income. Throughout 2021, we improved our financial strength and flexibility each quarter, putting up strong operating results, driving efficiencies to reduce our annual run rate expenses by approximately $75 million maximizing the value of our assets and reducing our debt and overall cost of capital. With the completion of the Enact IPO, we achieved rating upgrades from Moody's and S&P at the parent holding company in recognition of the improved credit risk profile and increased financial flexibility. Enact was also upgraded by Moody's, S&P and Fitch, which has enabled it to expand its customer base and be more competitive against peers. In 2021, we took a proactive approach to managing our holding company debt, which has strengthened our balance sheet as we head into 2022. We retired over $2 billion in debt including the AXA promissory note and of approximately $1.2 billion of parent holding company debt remaining as of year-end. We plan to retire the remaining 2024 debt of $282 million ahead of its maturity date. After we retire the 2024 debt, our next debt maturity will be more than a decade away in 2034. And we would expect cash interest coverage to be approximately 5 times based on a conservative view of projected cash flows, which will be great progress. While it has been over 13 years since Genworth returned capital to shareholders, we plan on announcing more specific capital management plans later this year, given the tremendous improvement in our financial condition achieved in 2021. The timing is dependent on redeeming the remaining $282 million of debt due in 2024 and Enact's announcement of its future dividend policy. The bottom line is that we've had a terrific year and are entering 2022 with a strong foundation and a clear path for the future. We look forward to sharing more with you soon. Now, let's open the line for questions.