Daniel Sheehan
Analyst · Shah Capital
Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased with the continued progress made during the quarter with strong earnings and capital ratios in our Enact U.S. Mortgage Insurance segment; strong results from our Long-Term Care Insurance business and increased liquidity at the holding company. We ended the quarter with more than 842 million in holding company cash. Subsequent to quarter end, we retired our remaining September 2021 debt of 513 million, which reduced parent company debt to approximately two billion, including the AXA liability. We reported net income available to Genworth shareholders for the quarter of $240 million and adjusted operating income of $194 million. Included in net income for the quarter was $46 million in non-operating items, mostly consisting of mark-to-market increases on limited partnerships in our investment portfolio. Turning to the Enact segment. The U.S. mortgage and housing market continues to demonstrate positive momentum characterized by a large origination market, increasing home prices and the continuation of decreasing new delinquencies from their pandemic-driven peak. Despite the challenges of low housing inventory and rising home prices, affordability remains favorable, supported by prevailing low interest rates. During the quarter, we estimate the originations market accelerated its transition to purchase originations, which is a positive trend for the private mortgage insurance industry as we experienced approximately four times higher penetration in purchase originations versus refinances. For the second quarter, Enact reported adjusted operating income of 135 million and a loss ratio of 12% compared to adjusted operating income of 126 million and a loss ratio of 22% in the prior quarter. The improvement in results was primarily driven by lower new delinquencies compared to the prior quarter. In addition, insurance in force grew approximately 10% versus the prior year, primarily driven by over 100 billion in new insurance written over the last four quarters. New insurance written in Enact was 26.7 billion in the quarter, up 7% versus the prior quarter, driven primarily by a larger purchase origination market and down 6% versus the prior year primarily driven by lower estimated market share. A healthy and prudent MI market has enabled us to continue to write new business at attractive low to mid-teen returns. We see the market and underwriting conditions, including the pricing environment as being well within our risk-adjusted return appetite. Ultimately, we expect our second quarter new insurance written with its strong credit profile and attractive pricing to positively contribute to our future profitability and return on equity going forward. Our persistency increased seven points compared to the previous quarter and four points compared to second quarter 2020 driven by a modest increase in interest rates and the decline in the percentage of in-force policies with mortgage rates above prevailing rates. However, the overall low interest rate environment and resulting refinance activity continued to drive low persistency across our insurance portfolio. Premiums were lower versus the prior quarter and flat to the prior year, impacted by lower single premium cancellations, higher ceded premiums and lapse of older, higher-priced policies, offset by insurance in force growth. While single premium cancellations remain elevated, we did see a six million decline to 20 million this quarter versus 26 million last quarter and 35 million last year. Ceded premiums were up two million this quarter to 18 million versus 16 million last quarter and reflect the expansion of our credit risk transfer program. We have added disclosure this quarter in our investor presentation to provide additional insights regarding changes in our base and net earned premium rates over time. As noted on Page 5 of the investor presentation, our base premium rates have declined modestly from lapse driven attrition within the quarter, with more meaningful reductions in the net premium rate driven by the impacts of changes in single premium cancellations and ceded premiums. Since June, we have been providing investors a monthly reported delinquency activity and have now seen four consecutive quarters of improving delinquency trends with sequentially lower new delinquencies and Cures in excess of these delinquencies. For the quarter, Cures of approximately 14,500 were up 7% sequentially and continue to outpace new delinquencies. Our new delinquency rate on new delinquencies over policies in force, was 0.7%, which reflects a return to pre-pandemic levels. We are encouraged by this milestone, which reflects ongoing recovery from the pandemic. New delinquencies of approximately 7,000 during the quarter were down 30% sequentially with 45% reported in new forbearance plants. These delinquencies resulted in 30 million in loss expense in the quarter. Additionally, we released four million of IBNR reserves related to June delinquencies that have not yet been reported by services to us and which we expect will be lower than had been assumed in our prior IBNR reserves. The release of IBNR reserves was offset by other losses. Consistent with the prior quarter, our expected ultimate claim rate on new delinquencies was approximately 8%. We ended the quarter with approximately 33,500 total delinquencies or a delinquency rate of 3.6%. In total, approximately 64% of our total delinquencies are in forbearance plans. Importantly, 94% of our delinquencies have mark-to-market loan to values, reflecting at least 10% borrower equity and 60% of mark-to-market loan to values, reflecting at least 20% borrower equity using March 2021 home prices. We believe this level of embedded home price appreciation across our delinquencies could have a positive impact on future claim rates and severity of claims. As forbearance plans expire, and foreclosure moratorium ends. Turning to the U.S. Life segment. We reported adjusted operating income of 71 million in the quarter, which compared to adjusted operating income of 62 million in the prior quarter and an adjusted operating loss of $5 million in the prior year. Overall results in this segment were driven by strong variable investment income and benefit reductions in Long-Term Care. Mortality was lower in the quarter as impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic lessened. In Long-Term Care, adjusted operating income was 98 million in the second quarter compared to 95 million in the prior quarter and 48 million in the prior year. I do want to remind investors, while we have a positive lifetime GAAP margin on our Long-Term Care block the emergence of profits overtime is uneven. Under GAAP, we deferred a portion of our LTC profitability by accumulating the profits followed by losses reserve to help cover projected losses in the future. As of the second quarter, the pretax balance of this reserve was 957 million, up from 625 million as of year-end 2020. This had an earnings impact of 125 million after tax during the quarter. For the quarter, variable investment income in LTC was up 35 million after tax versus the prior quarter and 63 million after tax versus the prior year, reflecting higher limited partnership income gains on treasury inflation protected securities and bond calls and prepayments. As we look forward, we would expect this investment performance to moderate. Claim terminations in the second quarter was significantly lower versus the prior quarter and prior year and recently trended towards more normalized patterns as noted on Page 11 of the investor presentation. To remind investors, we had previously established a reserve of 158 million for mortality experience during the pandemic to reflect our view that the remaining claim population is less like the determinate than the pre-pandemic average due to the pandemic impacting our most vulnerable claimants. However, with the significant decline in mortality in the second quarter, we did not establish additional reserves for this mortality adjustment or reduced a portion of the cumulative balance, leaving a remaining reserve of 143 million. As the pandemic continues to develop, mortality experience may fluctuate in the near-term and we would increase or decrease the COVID-19 mortality adjustment accordingly. Although new active claims trended up gradually in the first half of 2021, incidence remains lower than pre-pandemic levels, and drove continued favorable IBNR development during the quarter. Pending claim submissions, which are a leading indicator of future new claim incidents increased during the quarter and based on this experience, we expect incidents to continue to trend higher in the quarters ahead. Earnings from in-force rate actions increased versus the prior year and prior quarter, driven primarily by benefit reductions, including the impacts of benefit reduction elections related to a legal settlement that favorably impacted this quarter by 71 million or 22 million after adjusting for profits followed by losses. At this time, it is difficult to assess the overall impact the legal settlement will have going forward as full implementation of the settlement will take another two to three quarters. This settlement applies to a subset of our choice on policyholders or approximately 20% of more than one million Long-Term Care insurance policyholders and provides additional clarity into future rate actions with expanded benefit reduction at non-forfeiture options. We also have an agreement in principle for a nationwide settlement on a basis similar to the Choice settlement subject to full documentation and court approval, which applies to our PCS 1 and PCS 2 policy forms that comprise approximately 15% of our Long-Term Care Insurance policyholders. Shifting to in-force rate action approvals for LTC during the quarter, we received approvals impacting approximately 81 million of premiums with a weighted average approval rate of 60%. For the first half of 2021, we received approvals impacting 477 million in premiums with a weighted average approval rate of 43% compared to 257 million in premiums and a weighted average approval rate of 30% for the first half of 2020. While quarterly approvals are uneven, we expect approvals in the second half of 2021 to be strong based on pending filings with a few large states. We do expect to complete our claims assumption review in the fourth quarter. We are monitoring emerging experience, particularly in mortality and benefit utilization. While this work is ongoing, preliminary indications are that our claim reserve assumptions are holding up in the aggregate, in the fourth quarter, we also plan to complete our review of our active life reserve assumptions, including mortality, benefit utilization, interest rates and in-force rate actions, among other assumptions. Any assumption changes that result in pressure to our active life margins will be assessed for inclusion in our multiyear rate action plan. For 2021 assumption updates, we are generally not including data from 2020 and setting any long-term assumptions as we do not yet have sufficient information around longer-term effects of the pandemic. Turning to Life Insurance. Overall mortality for the quarter continued to be elevated versus historical experience, although improved versus the prior quarter. The second quarter included an estimate of approximately nine million after tax in COVID-19 claims based upon death certificates received to-date. Despite improvement versus the prior quarter from the decrease in COVID-19 claims, mortality remained higher than the prior year. The impact of term life insurance products from shop [last] (Ph) is has moderated as a result of the reinsurance agreements in place related to the 20-year term block issued in 2001. Total term life insurance stack amortization, reduced earnings by $12 million after tax versus 13 million after tax in the prior quarter and 27 million in the prior year. We will likely see additional shock lapse amortization next year with a three-year block issued in 2002, which is not reinsured, although the impacts are anticipated to be smaller than 2019 and 2020, given the smaller size of the block. In our universal life products, we recorded a 13 million after-tax charge for DAC recoverability and down from 17 million in the prior quarter. The charges in the first two quarters of this year reflected the unfavorable mortality experience and continued block runoff. Similar to LTC, we will also complete our annual review of life insurance assumptions, including mortality, persistency and interest rates in the fourth quarter. As we complete our review, we are closely monitoring our elevated mortality experience, including older age mortality as well as mortality improvement and potential changes to our assumptions could negatively impact our earnings in the fourth quarter. In fixed annuities, adjusted operating earnings of 13 million for the quarter was lower compared to the prior quarter and prior year, primarily from lower mortality and single premium immediate annuities and unfavorable impact from the decline in interest rates during the quarter. In the runoff segment, our adjusted operating income was 15 million for the second quarter versus 12 million in the prior quarter and 24 million last year. Equity market performance was more favorable versus the prior quarter and less favorable versus the prior year. Rounding out the results, Corporate and Other's adjusted operating loss was 27 million and was improved from last quarter in the prior year, primarily driven by lower interest expense. Our deleveraging efforts this year and moving forward are projected to decrease the losses in this segment in the quarters ahead. Turning to capital levels. In the Enact segment, we finished the quarter with an estimated PMIER sufficiency ratio of 165% or approximately 1.9 billion above published requirements. The improvement in our PMIERs sufficiency versus the prior quarter was driven by strong business cash flows, lower required assets related to declining delinquent inventory, continued capital credit from our forward excess of loss reinsurance transaction and the execution of an insurance-linked note on a portion of our 2020 book, which provided approximately 300 million of PMIERs credit origination. As Tom mentioned, subsequent to the second quarter, Cameco, our flagship MI entity, received approval from North Carolina Department of Insurance, our domestic regulator, to dividend 200 million in the fourth quarter. While subject to market conditions, business performance and other regulatory approvals, including compliance with the applicable GSE requirements, our confidence has increased in Enact issuing a 200 million dividend in the fourth quarter. We expect capital in Genworth Life Insurance Company, or GLIC, as a percentage of company action level RBC to be approximately 270%, up from 254% at the end of the first quarter. U.S. Life statutory earnings in the second quarter benefited from LTC earnings from the impact of in-force rate actions and claim experience. Statutory earnings for LTC are generally higher than GAAP earnings because the concept of profits followed by losses does not exist for statutory accounting. Statutory earnings are more aligned to taxable earnings, which has contributed cash tax payments to the holding company over the last few quarters and which we expect to continue. Turning to the holding company. We are very pleased with the improvement in our liquidity and financial flexibility as we have retired more than 1.2 billion of debt through July while maintaining prudent cash buffers for forward debt service obligations. Page 18 of the investor presentation provides the detailed quarterly cash activity for the second quarter including intercompany tax payments of 112 million, which we do expect to continue in the near-term, although at lower rates. As I mentioned earlier, we ended the quarter in a very strong cash position with 842 million in cash and liquid assets were 655 million above our targeted cash buffer. This excludes approximately 284 million in cash held at Enact's Holding Company. As we look forward, we believe that our liquidity and financial flexibility profile should improve even further. With cash on hand, expected intercompany tax payments, the planned minority IPO of Enact and resumption of their dividends, our financial flexibility should improve meaningfully. Once our parent debt level reaches approximately one billion, we will be in a better position to return capital to shareholders and make prudent investments in future growth. In closing, we have taken numerous steps to improve the liquidity and financial flexibility of our holding company and the position of our businesses. We are pleased with our financial progress and remain focused on providing value to all key stakeholders. One final note, as Tim noted earlier, due to applicable securities laws restrictions, our comments regarding the status of preparations and other matters related to the planned and Enact IPO will be limited to our prepared remarks. With that, we will now open the line for questions.