Mike Hogan
Analyst · Oppenheimer
Thanks, Tony. I will cover two topics this afternoon. The first, the little color regarding the collectibles category overall and the factors driving GameStop's 261% growth in Q1. The second is an update on virtual reality and new Nintendo console and their potential for driving growth in physical gaming category. As we noted at our April 14 Investor Day, collectibles narrowly defined is an $11 billion category in the US and estimated $18 billion globally. This is a growing but extremely fragmented category with no leader. We believe GameStop plus ThinkGeek can quickly become the market leader. We know that 45% of our PowerUpRewards members already purchased collectibles, and in an average spend of $360 per year, they represent upto half of the total category spend, thus giving us the advantage position in this category. We continue to see extremely strong performance in our collectibles business. We are very much on track to achieve our goals of $450 million to $500 million in 2016 and $1 billion by 2019. At present we have only about 2% to 3% in this category but we believe we can grow that dramatically and keep in mind the $1 billion in 2019 would represent only about 5% to 6% of what will be by then a $16 billion US category. As Rob noted, our Q1 sales of $82.3 million compared favorably versus $22.8 million for Q1 of 2015 representing 261% growth year-over-year. The business can be thought of in terms of three channels. Our GameStop branded stores around the world, dedicated collectible stores and the online business. Each of these channels experienced significant growth year-over-year. Our dedicated collectible stores are exceeding our expectations and we continue to expand rapidly. Globally, we now have 37 dedicated collectible retail stores and our plan is to add at least 50 more by year-end. In our GameStop branded stores we continue to see strong acceptance of collectibles by our existing consumer base. We had great success in attaching incremental purchases to video game titles such as Fallout, Star Wars and Pokémon. Based upon this performance we have increased the space dedicated to collectibles in our stores. Year-over-year collectible sales in GameStop branded stores is up over 200%, this is helping to fuel the continued increase in per store profitability as we discussed at our Investor Day. And of course, we added ThinkGeek.com to the mix which continues to drive overall positive performance. As we explained at Investor Day, our strategy is to implement an integrated marketing calendar leveraging the most significant events, movies, video game launches and other properties to drive continual product news in on-going consumer interest and frequency. To-date this strategy is working well. For example, in the first quarter we capitalized on key movie releases such as Deadpool and Captain America with the broad selection featuring dozens of products in store and online. We leverage PowerUpRewards to attach collectibles on key game releases. This includes Q1 releases such as Street Fighter but also Long Tail Fails from 2015 titles such as Fallout and Five Nights with Freddie's and even older titles such as Minecraft. We saw strong sales from enduring properties such as Star Wars, Doctor Who and Batman. And finally, we executed successful in-store events around indications such as Valentine's Day and May 4, be with you. The collectibles business is proving to be a broad based business with many significant IP drivers across movies and TVs, comics, video games and pop culture. From a category perspective, we expanded our product line into new areas. Some of the most significant new areas of focus are apparel where we expanded watches, socks and backpacks and grew more than 200% and interestingly housewares, where we also grew 200%. The largest category continues to be toys which also grew over 200% versus prior year. Looking ahead, we see a strong lineup of events and properties for the rest of the year. On the movie front obviously, Star Wars Rogue I is a big focus. We also have plans around the new Harry Potter movie, Fantastic piece and where to find them and from DC comics the movie Suicide Squad. Key video game launches for collectibles include Pokémon Sun and Moon, Battlefield, Call of Duty, Final Fantasy IV and South Park, and of course Game of Thrones as well. In short, 2016 is shaping to be a very full calendar of IPs whether movies, video games or pop culture. We feel like we are ahead of the curve in terms of bringing the right exclusive products at the right time and leveraging PowerUpRewards to message the right opportunity to each member. Now a few words on the physical video games category outlook and the potential impact of virtual reality and the new Nintendo console. Back in April, at Investor Day we shared our financial outlook for 2019 that incorporated a modest decline in the physical games business. At the time, we noted those numbers did not include any new console launches and did not include any sales for virtual reality hardware or software. I want to take a minute to lay out some category data that may help quantify the potential impact that these new innovations may have on the physical console gaming category in the near future. Specifically, I want to look at virtual reality products announced for 2016 and a new Nintendo console announced for 2017. We are not speculating on any new Microsoft or Sony consoles at this point. Games that did not model or project the impact of either of these innovations, we are simply looking at historical data and third party projections. We will update this information each quarter and later this year we will provide formal projections once we have more consumer data and initial sales data. Let's turn to Page 16 in the attached slide deck. The green bar on the left represents physical gaming category sales for the US for 2015 which totaled $13.1 billion. Moving over to the two orange bars we can see two external projections or VR sales from Super Data and IDG. These bars represent the projections for launch plus the first two years which in this case would be 2017 and 2018. The projections range from a low of $6.9 billion to a high of $13.6 billion. When added into a $13 billion category, you can get a sense of just how significant the impact could be on physical gaming sales. We are particularly excited about the Sony VR product given the attractive price point, the large installed base and its plug-and-play capability. Now let's move over to the blue bars on the right. Back at Investor Day, we illustrated the potential impact of new console introductions by all three manufacturers through 2019. Since then Nintendo has confirmed that they will be introducing a new console in early 2017. So let's take a look at the potential for just that one new console. Once again, we are not projecting, we are simply looking at the potential for a new console in comparison to prior consoles. Should the new NX perform only slightly better than the VU, it would still generate $2.7 billion of incremental sales over the first two years. Should it perform at even half of the level of V, it would generate $7.5 billion in incremental sales over that timeframe. You can of course supply GameStop's average market share to estimate the impact on GameStop sales. While it is too early to offer definitive projections, we are monitoring the situation closely in terms of product availability and features, consumer awareness and purchase intent we plan to provide update this quarter. I will now turn the call back over to Paul.