Bart Filius
Analyst · Dane Leone from Raymond James
Thank you very much, Paul, and good morning, everyone, in the U.S. Good afternoon, everyone, in Europe. Thanks for listening into this webcast. For me now, a chance to give you a perspective on the operational highlights for the quarter, and I'll start off with our current state of our pipeline, which you can see on this slide, highlighting 3 programs here. First of all, obviously filgotinib. Jyseleca has a marketed product, which has a study ongoing, the diversity study in Crohn's disease. That study is fully recruited since the third and fourth quarter of last year, and we anticipate to see the full results, including maintenance data in the beginning of 2023. So that's a big trial that we are waiting data from, let's say, first half next year. The second one to highlight, and Walid will probably be able to give you some further insights during the Q&A, but it's 3667, our TYK2 inhibitor. We're obviously watching with some interest. [Indiscernible] from the MS, and seeing how that is progressing both on a clinical and regulatory point of view. And we are finding our own path towards identifying the right indication for this asset, and it will take, let's say, the external environment into account when making that selection. And our ambition is to start a Phase II program in the course of this year still. And then the last one I'd highlight here is our CFTR 2737, which we're evaluating in polycystic kidney disease in a 1-year trial. That trial is also fully recruited since late last year. And there, as well, we anticipate in the first half of 2023, the data set from this proof-of-concept study. Then if I move to our marketed product, Jyseleca, we are very proud to have our first marketed products available for patients in Europe. And we're also now the marketing authorization holder, which we've taken over from Gilead at the end of last year. And we've launched now in 2 indications, rheumatoid arthritis since the beginning of last year, and since late last year also in ulcerative colitis, and I'll go in a bit more detail on that path to growth. On the next one, the growth trajectory for Jyseleca in RA on track in Europe, we are reporting sales of EUR 14.4 million in the first quarter. As you can see from the quarter-on-quarter evolution, that growth curve is doing nicely. As a reminder, in Q2 '21 and Q3 '21, there was a stocking effect that's inflated to Q2 numbers and probably reduced a bit to Q3 numbers. But otherwise, it's a pretty linear growth curve that we're seeing here. We're very happy with the results in the first quarter at EUR 14.5 million. We also have received on top EUR 14.5 million, a EUR 1 million milestone from our partner, Sobi, who is launching now in the Eastern European countries and Portugal, and 1 milestone was due in the first quarter. Based on this, we are confirming our guidance as we've given that in February that we think that we're going to be able to achieve between EUR 65 million and EUR 75 million of sales. In the meantime, the review under Article 20 by the PRAC is still ongoing. The review of the class, that is, all the JAKs are being evaluated, and we anticipate to hear more from CHMP and later on the European Commission in the next couple of months. So we'll see where that lands. Then if we move to a little bit more detail on market share evolution, we see a very nice increase of the class, which you see here on the left in dark green where the market share of the JAKs in Europe is now approaching 20% data point last March 2022. So that sees -- shows that there's a good appetite for an oral agent in these markets. And the 4 agents that are out there are together growing the class very nicely. Our own market share there in , and this is the market share in the dynamic markets across the EU 5 countries is now approaching 5%. You need to take into account here that some of these countries, such as Italy and Spain are only on the market since the fourth quarter of last year. So we are quite pleased with how we see this curve evolving. If you go on a more qualitative basis, we've also evaluated. This is our own market research. We've also evaluated how we are comparing as Jyseleca to other JAKs that are out there, both in terms of efficacy and safety. And also here, you see in the blue line, the outcomes for Jyseleca and in the various gray colors the other agents in the class. And it's good to see there's a fourth agent in the class. The message around Jyseleca is resonating very well. In efficacy terms, we are among the leaders in the class. And actually, on the last data point in safety, we are rated highest in the class. So that brings, let's say, a good ground for growing Jyseleca further and making this available to more and more patients, good brand awareness as well. In terms of reimbursement, as you can see here, we are slowly covering the map of Europe in dark green. Those are all the countries that are fully reimbursed, and those are the most meaningful ones in terms of market opportunity. And with our partner, Sobi, we are in progress to also tap into markets in Eastern Europe as well as in Greece as well. And so we're coloring the map dark green as we go, and we're now reaching full potential in RA. And if I go to UC, important to highlight here that there's really a big need for novel treatment options. Remission rates are suboptimal. Patients are also steroid dependent with existing therapies. There's safety concerns. And then also the oral formulation, obviously, is a key asset for Jyseleca in these markets, which, by the way, we estimate to be a market of around EUR 1 billion in total. And we're seeing good reception of Jyseleca when it enters into the market. It's now still available in a couple of markets only, which include Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Austria, as you can see here. So we're gradually also getting reimbursement in those markets. But there where it's available, the receptivity is very good and also the positioning of Jyseleca in relation to other oral agents and the market share of Jyseleca in relation to other newly available treatments then is developing positively. That all leads to a business case, and I've shown this before, which has, we think, a potential to reach EUR 0.5 billion across Europe, and that's across Europe and across 3 indications. We now have 2 approvals in RA and in UC, and we hope to get the approval upon positive data in the course of next year for Crohn's to get the approval for Crohn's as well in either late '23 or in the beginning of 2024. And the 3 indications together should help us to reach a EUR 0.5 billion peak, which we estimate to be achievable by the second half of this decade. And when we do so, we think it's also a very healthy financial opportunity with the contribution margin of around 50%, including cost of goods and royalties that we pay back to Gilead. And then we have a good patent life still ahead of us. 2035 is with the extensions the estimated time line for patent exclusivity. So a good number of years for positive cash flow for Jyseleca after a breakeven, which we still anticipate in 2024. Then if I move on to the financial results for the quarter, first, always look at the cash, which remains our main financial KPI, EUR 4.6 billion of cash position at the end of March, if you exclude the usual exclusions around some warrant exercises as well as on fair value adjustments to the dollar-euro exchange rates. If you then look at purely the operational cash burn, we're landing at EUR 77 million for the quarter. As a reminder, this compares to an overall guidance that we've given between EUR 450 million and EUR 490 million. So this is clearly below the 25% that you would expect in 1 quarter. But as a reminder as well, we've received in the quarter a last payment from Gilead of EUR 50 million for some of the renegotiations we've done around the development portfolio on filgotinib. So it's unusually low for the quarter, but we're comfortable to confirm our guidance between EUR 450 million and EUR 490 million. If I then look at the P&L, we see a couple of important elements. As usual, we have revenue recognition from our deferred balance sheet position and that actually, at the end of March is still EUR 2.3 billion of not yet recognized revenues for both the platform and for filgotinib, and the combined of the 2 is a little over EUR 110 million in terms of recognition in the first quarter. But then we're also adding the EUR 14 million sales that I spoke about before for Jyseleca. We've also recognized royalties of EUR 5 million in relation to Jyseleca. This is connected to both the Japan performance and the approval in Japan in ulcerative colitis and the 1 million milestone that we received from Sobi as well. On the operating costs, we see an improvement or a decrease compared to last year. Two main programs where we have reduced expenses, 1 obviously ziritaxestat; and the other one, our Toledo program, leading to a net result of negative EUR 13 million, which is helped with a favorable currency result and net other financial income of EUR 10 million. If we take a longer look at our cash flow. Again, if you take the EUR 450 million, EUR 490 million guidance for the year and take the midpoint there at $470 million, it's important to highlight that part of this cash flow is not recurring because it's actually the investment of Jyseleca that should, by itself, fall away once we reach breakeven status a couple of years down the line. So it's really important in a recurring basis to look at what's colored in orange, roughly at EUR 350 million that we're spending on research and development on a cash basis per annum. And then later on in the decade, once Jyseleca will start to generate positive cash flows, actually, that will help our overall net cash flow in the right direction. Obviously, this is excluding any business development activity or any other programs that we are potentially licensing in, but for the current portfolio, this is what we believe is the envelope to look at. Then let me conclude with the last slide. We think the foundations for future growth for the company are there. We have a novel target engine and a differentiated pipeline. Through BD, we'll be focusing, as Paul was alluding on breakthrough opportunities to fill our pipeline further. On the commercial side, we're rolling out successfully Jyseleca in Europe, first in RA and UC, and then hopefully later on also in Crohn's disease, with a very, very healthy balance sheet in terms of cash, EUR 4.6 billion. And as a reiteration, you see the numbers of guidance there that we're confirming from our earlier announcements in February. And then with the arrival of Paul as CEO to the company, we believe we've got the foundations for the growth of Galapagos into the future. So thanks for that with the presentation. I suggest, Sofie, we go from here in the Q&A.