Laurence G. Sellyn
Analyst · GMP Securities
Good morning. We were pleased today to report record results for the second quarter of the fiscal year, which were ahead of expectations. These results were achieved in weak industry conditions in both operating segments. We also provided strong sales and EPS guidance for our June quarter and now feel comfortable to narrow our EPS guidance range for the full fiscal year to $2.65 to $2.70, compared to our prior range of $2.60 to $2.70, in spite of the impact of higher than previously anticipated cotton costs for the second half of the year. Adjusted EPS for the second quarter was $0.59 per share, compared to our previous guidance range of $0.54 to $0.57, and $0.23 per share in the second quarter of last year. Consolidated gross margins for the second quarter were approximately 29%, compared with approximately 18% in the second quarter of last year. The main factors impacting the results for the second quarter compared to the second quarter of last year were as follows. Firstly, the significant reduction in cotton costs compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2012. Cotton costs in the second quarter were approximately $0.85 per pound, compared with approximately $1.60 per pound in the second quarter of fiscal 2012. Secondly, the impact of lower Printwear net selling prices, including the approximate $5 million impact of a distributor inventory devaluation discount in the second quarter. It should be noted that the majority of the benefit of the reduction in the price of cotton from peak cotton prices had already been passed through in advance to Printwear customers in the reduction of Printwear selling prices in the first quarter of 2012, even though we continue to consume high-cost cotton in cost of sales. We believe that selling prices are currently in good alignment with cotton prices. The third factor was a 4% increase in unit sales volumes in the U.S. Printwear market, primarily due to the acquisition of Anvil. This increase was achieved in spite of the impact of lower industry demand for T-shirts than last year, which is being attributed within the industry largely to the unseasonably cooler weather. In addition, Printwear sales volumes were negatively impacted by lower seasonal inventory replenishment than last year, due to the high level of restocking in the second quarter of fiscal 2012, following the abnormally high level of inventory de-stocking in the first quarter of 2012. Inventories of our brands in the channel were in good balance at the end of the second quarter and were at approximately the same level as the year ago. A decision was made in the quarter to focus the Anvil brand on contemporary ring-spun products and discontinue products which do not fit with this brand positioning. Results for the second quarter include a charge of $0.02 per share for the discontinuation of certain Anvil product lines. The mix factors that we achieved, close to 20% growth in sales volumes and international markets, compared to the second quarter of last year. Results for Branded Apparel continue to improve, due to a higher volume mix of Gildan and Gold Toe products, and the volume impact of the acquisition of Anvil. Sales of socks were slightly lower than last year, as consumer spending in the U.S. retail market in the second quarter was negatively impacted by colder weather conditions, the later timing of income tax refunds and an increase in payroll taxes. The mix factor impacting our results in the second quarter is that we incurred higher manufacturing costs, due to short-term issues in the first quarter which impacted the cost of goods sold as inventories were consumed during the second quarter, together with the earlier timing of Easter holiday shutdown and inflationary cost increases, which more than offset the benefits of the ramp-up of Rio Nance V and the energy cost savings from the new biomass facility at Rio Nance. And finally, results in the second quarter reflected increased SG&A expenses and higher income taxes. SG&A expenses were 14.1% of net sales in the quarter, compared to 11.2% last year, due to increased brand advertising expenses, including the cost of the Super Bowl commercial, and higher performance-driven management incentive compensation. The income tax rate in the second quarter was approximately 4%. The strong trend in our financial performance is projected to continue into the third quarter. We are projecting EPS for the third quarter of $0.92 to $0.95, up 39% to 44% from the third quarter of fiscal 2012, on projected sales revenues of approximately $630 million. The projected EPS growth in the third quarter of this year is due to the lower cotton costs, continuing unit sales volume growth in all target markets, including the impact of new Branded retail programs, more favorable product mix in both operating segments, and the approximate $0.10 per share impact of increased supply chain and manufacturing efficiencies in the quarter compared to Q3 last year, due to the ramp-up of Rio Nance V, lower energy cost due to the biomass project, the non-recurrence of the write-up of assets at Rio Nance I last year, and the benefits of the earlier timing of the Easter holiday shutdown. These positive factors are projected to be partially offset by lower net selling prices for Printwear compared with last year, inflationary cost increases, increased SG&A expenses and higher income taxes. As stated earlier, we are now comfortable to guide to the upper half of our previous EPS guidance range for the full fiscal year. Consequently, we are updating our guidance to indicate a narrower range of $2.65 to $2.70. Compared with our previous guidance, we are reflecting higher cotton costs in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year, which are projected to negatively impact EPS by approximately $0.05 per share. Cost per cotton to be consumed and cost of sales in the balance of the year are now essentially fixed. The updated guidance assumes that there is no material change in overall economic and market conditions in the second half of the fiscal year. We are continuing to project that we will generate in excess of $200 million of free cash flow for the full year, after approximately $200 million in capital expenditures. The fiscal 2013 capital expenditure program includes approximately $10 million to modernize the former Anvil textile manufacturing facility and further expand its product capabilities. Notwithstanding the investment in the Anvil facility, it is still planned to begin to ramp up Rio Nance I in the fourth quarter, with a focus on ring-spun products. Our capital expenditure program also includes further expansion of our biomass facilities and the construction of the new Honduran distribution center, as well as $85 million for upgrading our 2 existing yarn-spinning facilities and for a new ring-spun yarn facility in North Carolina, which is expected to be completed and ramped up during fiscal 2014. The cost reduction benefit from the ring-spun yarn facility will significantly impact earnings only beginning in fiscal 2015. Based on our current assumptions, we expect to have essentially no indebtedness outstanding at the end of the fiscal year on our bank credit facility, which we had increased and utilized to finance the acquisitions of Gold Toe and Anvil. At the time that we increased the amount of the bank facility, we swapped a portion of our bank indebtedness into fixed-rate debt, to protect us against a possible increase in interest rates from historically low levels. Since then, interest rates have continued to decline further. Depending on our potential uses of cash in 2014, it may no longer be economically justified to maintain our interest rate swaps. Based on today's interest rates, unwinding the swaps would result in a onetime charge of approximately $0.04 per share. This possible charge is not currently reflected in our guidance for fiscal 2013. We would like to conclude our comments today by summarizing some of the key points which we discussed with institutional investors during recent investor conferences in March, relative to our ongoing growth strategy and initiatives. Firstly, we continue to have significant growth opportunities in the overall North American Printwear business, including performance and other new high-value products, and will continue to increase penetration of international markets as we continue to ramp up new production capacity. Our full year guidance for fiscal 2013 includes the assumption of low teens unit volume growth in Printwear. Our largest growth opportunity is the continued implementation of our strategy to develop Gildan as a consumer brand sold through mass and other retailers. Our new retail programs in activewear, underwear and socks, in the second half of fiscal 2013, including our national Gildan-branded underwear program, will provide significant exposure for Gildan as a full-line supplier of branded family apparel. We will continue to support our brands with investments in brand advertising and marketing, as well as with capital investments for manufacturing capacity and product technology. The Gildan brand is increasingly being recognized and trusted by consumers for quality and comfort, durability and value for money, in the same way that it has become the brand of choice for screenprinters. Our retail products will contain enhanced product design features, but be sold to retailers at prices which will allow retailers to generate superior margins and still sell to consumers at lower prices. We are also investing in further developing the Gold Toe portfolio of brands, including not only the iconic Gold Toe brand itself, but also brand extensions such as the G brand, which is expanding beyond socks into new categories, such as activewear and underwear, and national chains and department stores. We are also pursuing growth opportunities to expand our relationships as a strategic, long-term supply chain partner to global consumer brands. These brands are increasingly seeking to consolidate their sourcing with large-scale, strategically located vertical suppliers with solid financing, which can be trusted not to compromise their corporate values and brand image with consumers. It goes without saying that the succession of recent events has increasingly given brands which outsource their manufacturing -- has increasingly given them reason to become concerned about safety and other social responsibility issues at contractor facilities. In addition, brands have been impacted by costly product recalls and by servicing issues, which one major brand called out last week as a key criteria for its supply chain decision-making, going forward. Large-scale vertical manufacturing is a critical success factor in both our Printwear and Branded Apparel businesses in support of our brands. Our continuous capital investments and new production capacity and product technology, over the past 15 years, have given us a competitive advantage as a globally low-cost producer and as a supplier of consistent, high-quality products produced in superior working conditions. Our unique positioning as a manufacturer is recognized by our major customers, who have been impressed by their visits to our manufacturing facilities. In this regard, we were proud to be the recipient of Wal-Mart's Annual Supplier Award for Excellence and Sustainability in Apparel in 2012. Our continuing investments in our textile manufacturing and our strategy to increase vertical integration in yarn-spinning will further reinforce our low-cost manufacturing and provide further differentiation in product quality. In summary, we are achieving record financial results and we are well-positioned for continued growth in sales and earnings. We believe we are at a major inflection point in Gildan's history, as we evolve from being the most successful trade brand, into a consumer brand, with the same brand positioning and the same competitive strengths as in Printwear. And we are facing the future with confidence and optimism.