Andre Gerdau Johannpeter
Analyst · Itau BBA
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone, and welcome to this conference call to discuss Gerdau's results. We will start our analysis with an overview of the world steel industry, and next we will comment on Gerdau's performance in the third quarter of the year, followed by more details on our investment in the period. It is important to mention that we will analyze the performance of the consolidated figures in the third quarter of 2016 in relation to the same period of the year before. After my remarks, Harley Scardoelli will elaborate on Gerdau's financial performance. And finally, we will both be available to take your questions. For those of you following us online, we are on page two, and then I will talk about the general overview of steel. Last October, the World Steel Association published an update of the forecast for apparent fuel consumption for 2016, and the following year. It is anticipated that 2016 will end with a 0.2% increase of global demand for steel after going through a drop of 3% in 2015. Excluding China, the outlook points to a 1% growth in demand, reaching 1.5 billion tons, for 2017 we should expect a 0.5% increase in global demand for steel raising by enlarging and developing economies. That, excluding China, should experience a 4% increase in demand. However China should experience a 2% drop in demand for 2017, and that is due to the lower pace of their economy. Besides our modest predictions for the consumption of global steel, the industry still faces the same difficulties and challenges that we encountered this year will maybe met next year due to unfair competition coming from some countries in the international space. In addition to that, the economic recession in Brazil led to lower steel demand. In 2016, steel consumption should be down by 14% in Brazil, probably the lowest level ever recorded in the last decade. The Brazilian economy shows signs that maybe the worst moment is already over, but it's worth mentioning that recovery will be slow and gradual. We've taken some important measures in order to arrive at a better tax balance just as the current debate around the proposal for constitution [indiscernible] that limit actual increases in public spending in additional to the proposal reform of the welfare system which is gradually moving forward. And with all of that the central bank will be able to reduce interest rates and [indiscernible] boost investments. For 2017, we anticipate an increase of 3.8% in steel demand in Brazil according to Instituto Aco Gerdau. Now, if we look at North America, the steel industry, as most downstream industries, have been posting a decrease in demand since 2016, moreover, we follow with some concern the recent increase in imports of rebars. That's why the local rebar producers submitted an investigation request to find out why there have been an increase in imports coming from Turkey, Japan, and Taiwan. In addition, there is low demand in the industry and also it's a moment of caution due to the presidential election which we just heard this morning that the President elect is now Mr. Donald Trump. On the other hand, we see that steel growth construction industry is recovering, and this has been built into the financial crisis, particularly in the non-residential segment, which now shows signs of a gradual and steady evolution. There is also a significant infrastructure deficit in the U.S., which represents a good opportunity for the industry in the region in the next coming years. Now, for 2017, we anticipate an increase of 3% in steel consumption in the United States according to the World Steel Association. Now we will look at South America. We must highlight the good outlook for 2017 in countries like Peru, which should experience a GDP growth of 4.1%, and Columbia 2.7%, as well as in Argentina with a 2.7% growth. As for specialty steel, the Brazilian automotive industry has felt some significant reduction in the last three years, and as of 2017, we expect to see some recovery in demand even though [indiscernible]. In the U.S. the market for light vehicles should still remain at a good level -- a record level. However in other relevant markets, such as heavy vehicles, that should continue to boast a weak demand. In India, the automotive industry is still performing well, and is supposed to grow further. Now on slide three, I will talk about the current landscape of Gerdau starting with consolidated shipments. We consolidated 3.7 million tons, shipments were down by 21% vis-à-vis the third quarter of 2015, and that was due to lower volume sold in all of our business operations. Now referring to net sales, it was BRL8.7 billion, down by 27% vis-à-vis the same period of the year before. Now profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization known by adjusted EBITDA totaled BRL1.2 billion, down by 7% vis-à-vis the same period of the year before, reflecting the lower performance of the North America operation, partially offset by the improved performance of the other operations. Now when comparing to the second quarter of this year, EBITDA was stable especially due to the improved performance of the Brazil operation and reduction with SG&A in the period. Now, referring to net income, it was BRL95 million, down by 51% when compared to the third quarter of 2015 due to lower EBITDA generation in the period. Now, in the first nine years of the year -- to date net income was BRL292 million. I would also like to refer to free cash flow on the priorities of our financial management at Gerdau, which totaled BRL1 billion in the first nine months of this year. Slide four we will talk about investments. And in the third quarter investments totaled BRL286 million [indiscernible] core CapEx. The highest disbursement occurred in the Brazil with almost 50% of CapEx. And that was mainly to fund the investment at the heavy plate rolling mill installed at the Ouro Branco plant in Minas Gerais and the startup of this operation was in July. As announced before, at year-end Gerdau should have a CapEx disbursement of around BRL1.5 billion, 35% below that of 2015. For 2017, the forecast for use of CapEx should amount to BRL1.4 billion focusing on the improvement of productivity and maintenance. Now I'd like to give the floor to Harley Scardoelli who will elaborate more on the results for the third quarter of 2016.