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Gerdau S.A. (GGB)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, May 7, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Gerdau's conference call about the results for the first quarter of 2013. [Operator Instructions] We would like to emphasize that any forward-looking statement that might be made during this conference call related to Gerdau's business outlook, projections and financial and operating goals are mere assumptions based on the management's expectations related to the future of the company. Even though Gerdau believes that these comments are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no guarantee that future events will not affect this evaluation. Here today are Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter, Director, President and CEO of the company; and André Pires Dias, Vice President and IR Director. With no further ado, I would like now to give the floor to Mr. Gerdau Johannpeter. You may proceed. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to our conference call about the results for the first quarter of 2013. We will begin our analysis by looking at the steel market worldwide and later we will refer to Gerdau's performance during the first 3 months of the year, and we will also talk about the outlook in the regions where we operate. Afterwards, André Pires will give you more details on the company's financial performance and after that, we will be available to take your questions. It is important to highlight that in this presentation, we will evaluate the performance of the first quarter of 2013, drawing a comparison with the same period of the year before. Now I would like to give you more details on the world steel market. The main regions of the world Europe, North and South America, the Middle East and Africa, experienced a reduction in their output levels during the first quarter, with the exception of Asia and particularly China. World steel production…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Renato Antunes from Brasil Plural.

Renato Antunes

Analyst · Brasil Plural

My first question has to do with the steel units in Brazil. If you could perhaps help us understand when we look at the net revenue per tonne, the domestic market, there was a decrease in the first quarter of 2013. You mentioned that one of the effects was the product mix. If this really the only driver for this decrease? Or was there anything else, perhaps a price discount? And I know sometimes your comp is close or the same, but what kind of mix and what kind of price could we expect for 2013? That's my first question. And the second question has to do with leverage and you mentioned in last slide about the prospect of reducing the debt level giving you better EBITDA and cash generation? Could you perhaps elaborate and help us quantify 2 main lines, CapEx, there was a market decrease in this quarter. Perhaps you could tell us what you expect to invest in 2013 for the year, that would be interesting, and also the working capital. You mentioned accounts receivable and the low inventories. Is there any room to improve the current level? Could you help us understand how to quantify this? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Hello, Renato, this is André Pires. Thank you for the question. And for your first question about net revenue. Indeed, in the first quarter of 2013 comparing to the first quarter of 2012, the main impact in terms of the mix, which is somewhat different is the higher sales of semi-finished goods. We see a higher share of semi-finished goods in the domestic markets. With that, net revenue was impacted. Again, I think that this was a little bit out of the curve that we are normally used to seeing in Brazil. And so your second question, about the debt level, indeed, we have a number of leverages -- a number of approaches to try to reduce our debt. And we're working on it. You talked about CapEx. Indeed, CapEx outlay in 2012 was $1.6 billion. For this year, we are working with a CapEx of about $1 billion. So that alone, can, with cash generation, around $600 million, will impact our leverage. There's also work ongoing about future investments that will be made according to the demand and availability. And as for working capital -- I quickly mentioned working capital in the presentation. Although working capital requirements increased in the quarter, we see a higher increase in the client's account while inventories were reduced. So we have to adjust the working capital to the level of demand. We believe that will be the impact on the working capital.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Marcos Assumpção from Itaú BBA. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: My first question refers to the maintenance or the prolonged maintenance stoppage that you experienced in the first half of the year, and how much that impacted your results in the first quarter so that we could have an idea of what the result will be for the second quarter, excluding that effect. And then the second question refers to the product mix. I just try -- I'm just trying to understand your strategy, that strategy of pursuing more sales of the semi-finished in Brazil should continue for a longer period of time? And can you tell me, to whom you sold these products, please? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Well, about maintenance stops, it's difficult to quantify the impact that I think that we must say that part of the reduction of the EBITDA margin in Brazil was due to maintenance stoppages. And the other part was due to cost of sales, and in -- that happened in 2012 and in early 2013. And I think the impact will not be so severe the next quarter. But in terms of the sales mix, the main reason for this reduction is that looking at the prices -- in the international prices, it's better to sell domestically rather than export. But we -- the fact that we are selling in the domestic market means that we are selling at a good margin. This is a strategy whereby we will try to avoid exporting at very depressed prices in the international market. So the demand already existed in the domestic market and we were not able to service all these customers or it's a new demand. Well, it's a recent demand.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Ivano Westin from Crédit Suisse. Ivano Westin - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I would like you to elaborate more on your sales and margins for North America. You showed some changes in shipments in the first quarter, but the margins are still low. Do you expect any recovery, and at what level? And also, I would like you to comment on the sales of BRL 117 million of assets. André Pires de Oliveira Dias: This is André Pires. Well, North America, in fact, we could feel a slight recovery in our margins in the first quarter. But however, if you draw a comparison with the first quarter of last year, and I'm sure you are monitoring that closely, scrap is the main reference for prices in the U.S., and the performance is low and it's dropping further, that's why the possibility of price conversion is lower. We are experiencing some improvement, but there is no greater possibility to expand margins further, but we are also looking at some KPIs or indicators that point to a demand recovery, but this is taking some time to materialize. The fact is that the EBITDA margin is improving and we do believe that the trend is for the EBITDA margin to continue on the improvement path. In terms of your second question, I didn't understand it quite well because the connection was bad, but I think you were talking about selling of our stake or assets. I think you were referring to the sale of Gerdau's stake in a pine -- or a timed plant. And the gains were of approximately BRL 30 million from this operation alone. The planting of trees or pine trees, and that's what we sold. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Thiago from Merrill Lynch.

Thiago Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I have 2 questions. One about the specialty steels. The average price has been somewhat weaker quarter-on-quarter. You talked about the Spain effect, perhaps you could mention a little bit more about possible discounts in the domestic market? And what we can expect looking forward from this business unit? My second question has to do with your current production of ore. What can we expect from now on in terms of growth? Could you give us an update, please? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: This is André Pires. In the specialty steels, the 2 main effects here were lower activity in Europe, our operation in Spain. And there was also an effect, Thiago, of some inventory reductions in North America. We believe that this is a onetime off effect, because it will look, the manufacturing of vehicles continues to be very strong in the U.S., 1.5 million units are expected for this year. But like I said before, with the reduction of the scrap, that pushes down the numbers a little, but these are from nonrecurring events. And there's a third factor, which is the consolidation in India. India, end of last year, it was to be posted as equity income. We had a pre-operating activity, pre-startup, and that obviously impacts the activity of specialty steels. As for your second question, we have no strategy whatsoever for discounts in the domestic market. I will give the floor to André to answer your question about mining. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Hello, this is André about mining. We should produce 6.5 million, 7 million tonnes to supply the domestic market, an increase by 1.5 million tonnes, that is our forecast. And we expect the production to increase year-on-year. We have 2 shipments already for the second quarter of iron ore.

Thiago Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

And a follow-up to my last question. What is the volume that you expect for 2014 to export iron ore? And what about the logistics for exports? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Well, we will have the capacity in the middle of the year of 11.5 million per year. With the start up of a new plant. This capacity in the second half and beginning of next year should be achieved. There would be 6.5 million, 7 million production. And 4.5 million of the book would be exploited. As for the logistics solution, we are negotiating with the existing parts. We're negotiating solutions for the short and medium term. We have the executive support. We're working on basic engineering, conceptual engineering, so that we can have a more mid-term solution. For the short term, we will line investments to be made by colleagues [ph] and we expect more longer-term contracts to be resolved.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Mr. Renato Antunes from Brasil Plural.

Renato Antunes

Analyst · Brasil Plural

I have 2 quick questions. If you could talk about the scrap market in Brazil, how do you see the scrap market in Brazil? Can you move to increase exports if this is concerning further it out where you don't have capital scrap? And the second question is, could you give us an update for the rolling mill? What is your expectation in terms of volume of this rolling mill? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: About the scrap, there's a big debate about this. If I have enough scrap to manufacture steel, we have -- or we have been following the trend, and we use scrap according to price and availability in the region. And so exports have been growing, not markedly, but exports have been growing. So we are financing this against our strategy. Because to deal with our captive scrap, because we cannot have a shortage of scrap. And sometimes we have to use the scrap to have a balanced situation. This is where -- like the situation that we see in the market. That's why colored hot rolled strips rolling mill. We are now completing the test. Since the beginning of the year, we've been testing it. So we are doing now installation, deploying the software to do the cold test and then the hot tests until we have the startup most probably by mid-June. And so sales starting in the end of July, and we expect to deliver 200,000 tonnes. Most of the deliveries will probably go to the domestic market. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. Rodolfo from JPMorgan. Rodolfo R. De Angele - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I only have one question. And I think it's a question that will answer the questions of others. The other -- the previous quarters underperformed when compared to the historical results of the company. How comfortable are you in terms of the second quarter? Looking at the figures, do you believe that there will be an upwards trend? So this is my main question. André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Rodolfo, here is André Pires. Our expectation in the second quarter is that this second quarter will be better. We are working towards that end. We are managing the company bearing that in mind. In -- no, March was significantly better when compared to February. In March, we also have some seasonal impact. But we experienced a significant improvement, therefore, we do believe that we will see a better landscape next quarter. Demand is quite sound and we have more stability in the market. So our expectation for the second quarter, not only for the second quarter but also for the remaining months of the year, is that we will have better results, especially comparing this quarter with the previous quarter of the year before.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Marcelo Aguiar from Goldman Sachs.

Marcelo Aguiar - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Could you please tell me more about the semi-finished product? Because -- and did that impact your March modeling, given that custom price are way below your sales numbers? Can you please tell me how many tonnes or thousands tonnes were lost in terms of slabs? Just so that I can have a more precise model for the future and learn more about the domestic market. And the second point has to do with your comment related to the coil hot rolled strips rolling mill. Do you believe that also considering the situation for Brazil for specialty steel, when do you expect the start-up of the new plants to begin? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Marcelo, this is André Pires. In terms of semi-finished, we you do not have any specific strategy and we do not reveal numbers related to volumes, we also -- we try to take opportunity -- we try to benefit from the market opportunities as we have been doing. And we see better opportunities to operate now in the domestic market rather than export. So therefore, this is a very momentary situation. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: This is André. On Slide 4, when we look at Santa Cruz mill, that should start up in August of 2014. In green -- the green line of specialty steel from the mill in São Paulo in 2013, hot rolled strips should start up in June of this year, and these are some of the main events. I don't know whether I left anything behind, but, no.

Marcelo Aguiar - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

No, no. You just answered it correctly. I just want a further clarification on André Pires' response. So what about your other Minas capacity? I think you are operating below your capacity. I just want to understand your strategy to transfer your operations from the external to the domestic market. So you were operating below your capacity, is that right? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: In fact, we are operating slightly below, but there was some slack. And so there were -- there was the opportunity to sell to the domestic market, so we took advantage of it. There are 2 factors here. Well, there are better margins in the domestic market, and also we had some opportunity to expand our domestic penetration. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Thiago from Citibank (sic) [Merrill Lynch].

Thiago Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I have one follow-up question about the situation in India. When do you expect the ramp up to happen? Do you still expect an impact of the start-up costs for the second quarter? And my second question has to do with specialty steel. How do you see the price performance in the coming quarters? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Well, in India, all equipment is operational. And that sort of we can see everything is working, and now we have the learning curve. So in the first quarter, we had a minimum production, and the ramp up should happen throughout the year. But first results that will only become stronger next year when we have a higher production speed next year. We should be producing about 150,000 tonnes around that. And that's when we're going to start breaking even and generating cash. It's difficult to give you a deadline, but this is what we expect. This is what we envision that will happen. Your second question, Thiago, was about specialty steels. Could you ask the question again? Were you referring to a specific region?

Thiago Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Well, not really. I was just wondering about the situation in Brazil. The flat steels industry has considered a price increase for the automotive industry. So how do you see the market outlook for specialty steels in the automotive industry in particular? Do you expect a price increase? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: This is André Pires. As you know, Thiago, we don't talk about prices. But what we can tell you is that the demand in the industry remains overheated. André, in the presentation, talked about an increase in the truck, bus and agricultural machinery segments. In the first quarter of 2012, we had a record vehicle manufacturing. So this is what everybody sees anyway. You agree that there is a demand increase, but we never comment on prices. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

I would like now to turn the floor over to Mr. Johannpeter for his final remarks. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: On my behalf and on behalf of André Pires, I would like to thank you for your interest and for your questions. And if there are pending questions, our Investor Relations department remains available to all of you, as always. And I'll take this opportunity to invite you for our next conference call on August 1 to talk about the second quarter of 2013. Thank you. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's Gerdau's conference call. We thank you for your participation. Have a good day.