Harry Vafias
Analyst · Tate Sullivan from Maxim Group. Please go ahead
On slide 10, our brief insight on the LPG market. So far, the first half of the year has been very positive as far LPG supply is concerned, with global exports estimated to have risen by 3.5% as per Banchero Costa reports. The U.S. being a main exporter has been exporting record amounts with 12% increases year-on-year, consistently exporting above 1.5 million tons a month. With current inventories being at high levels, it’s likely this trend will continue. With the main destination of U.S. export being China and Japan, this has provided firm support for the larger LPG rates and subsequently the medium sized ships as well. The Middle East countries have also been exporting increased amount of LPG, particularly in the second quarter. Although the recent OPEC cut in oil production may moderate this growth, but that remains to be seen. Overall, in 2023, there has been a positive price differential with naphtha that has supported use of LPG as feedstock by crackers. This had less effect in Europe as plants were operating at lower margins in general, but a more pronounced effect in Asia. There has been a lot of talk in the news lately about China and an importer of LPG and its economic recovery post COVID, with references to declining imports and export numbers. But as far as LPG is concerned, April saw record amount being important and then in May, again an all-time high with 3.3 million tons being imported. Higher U.S. exports, lower propane prices, recovery utilization rates above 70% and capacity additions boded well for LPG demand from Chinese PDH plants. We have touched on PDH plants quite a few times before as we see it as a macro theme. China wants to control its propane production. Hence, major investments have been made for increasing its capacity. It has been a bumpy ride, but for these plants -- but the rapid expansion of PDH capacity in China over the last few years is certain. Two more plants were added in the second quarter and five more are expected until the end of the year. On slide 11, we present some of the key fundamentals in our shipping market commencing with market rates for our market. As stated in our previous call, on a year-over-year basis, we see significant increases in time charter rates up to 15%. During Q2 ‘23, time charter rates remain steady for the smaller ships while increasing further for the larger ships. Looking at the small LPG trade West of Suez, the spot market remained tight for the majority of Q2. Since the second half of June, the spot market has started to cool off a bit in line with the usual seasonal pattern we see more or less every year. On the period side, the market continued in a healthy and a fairly active state through Q2. We have seen a stabilization of rates on the smaller pressure ships and a continued strengthening on the 7,000 cubic meters and above. Expectations are strong for the coming winter period and for the next couple of years in general, and we see keen interest from charters to lock in tonnage going forward. East of Suez, in Asia, the spot market did not perform as strong as the Western markets did. On the time of the riding, the market is relatively quiet with the expectation of a pickup from September, October onwards, and the period market in Asia remained rather quiet through Q2, with charters still enjoying relatively high TC coverage. We expect more activity towards Q4. For the Handysize vessels, the spot market continues to remain tight through Q2 as well with little tonnage available on either side of Suez. There was also a spillover effect from the very tight medium-sized market, which again was held up by strong very large Gas Carrier market. On the period side, rates remain relatively stable and the small order book for this size bodes well for the coming years. I’d like to reiterate that the fundamentals for our core fleet of small pressure continued to look promising as almost one-third of the fleet is over 20 years old, we saw hundreds of vessels being scrapped while market rates hold firm. But this quarter, we also did not see any new ordering of vessels in an already subdued newbuilding market. As per recent published orders, there are about 18 vessels on order to be delivered up until the next couple of years, a sub 2% annual increase in the fleet before scrapping should eventually lead to defer [ph] vessels in the midterm. We continue to believe that the risk of seeing bulk ordering of new vessels in this segment that could keep the supply-demand balance is improbable. On slide 12, we are showing the evolution of our LPG fleet. In this slide for comparison purposes, we excluded the tanker ships that we held until 2021, and we focus the pure LPG fleet in terms of cubic capacity, including our JV vessels. We have always been active in the sell and purchase market buying and selling ships. In a rising market, we continue to sell some vessels after selling 4 in 2022 and 8 more this year as well as 1 sold by our JV. We entered into an agreement to sell another 2 vessels for circa $35 million in aggregate. While we recorded an impairment on this last sale, we extended the timing of the delivery to early ‘24, so we will take advantage a little longer of the profitable charters that these ships are under. We’re looking to sell more vessels if the price is right. Through such sales, we have maintained the average age of our fleet to 10 years, which is quite modern for the industry standards. Moreover, we have been investing in more newbuilding vessels and our order book consists of three Korean built medium gas ships with 40,000 cubic capacity each. The first one owned by our JV is near completion and will take delivery in October, while the other two, we will take delivery in Q1 ‘24. It’s a strategic decision to diversify the fleet between the smaller vessels that we have traditionally operated and the larger ships, Handysize and Medium-sized Gas Carriers that have slowly been entering our fleet since 2018. In slide 13, we are outlining some of the key variables that may affect our performance in the quarters ahead. We remain optimistic on the longer term for the reasons we analyzed earlier. Despite many uncertainties mostly related to the macroeconomic environment, in the short term, we are in the summer months and the market has held up pretty well so far. We expect, as we enter the winter for the Northern Hemisphere that rates will start increasing as they normally do. Summing up, after having reported record annual profits last year and record quarterly profits in Q1, the market remained firm, and we had another strong second quarter, allowing us to report record six months profit and keep us on target to break last year annual record. In terms of strategy, during the second quarter, we further divested assets in the rising market, we continue to diversify the fleet with a timely addition of larger, more eco-friendly ships. We will also largely focus on reducing debt, repaying $105 million during this quarter alone, thus greatly reducing our interest rate expenses. At the same time, our Board authorized us to repurchase shares that we started doing late in the previous quarter. Up to now, we have repurchased over 1 million common shares, and we will continue to do so. We are in the fortunate position where we can deleverage, diversify, repurchase stock and maintain strong liquidity at the same time. This is the way we are creating shareholder value for our investors. And even though our share price has climbed significantly over the past 6 months, we believe we continue to be a sound investment for anyone wishing to invest in our company at this time. We’ve now reached the end of our presentation. We would like to open the floor for your questions.