Harry Vafias
Analyst · Maxim Group. Please go ahead. Your line is open
On Slide 10, we are providing some insight on the LPG market as a product and the increase in [indiscernible] so far. According to data from Banchero Costa during the first 3 months of 2023, LPG exports increased 6%, slightly better than was expected. The many exporters of LPG in the U.S. and Middle East countries continue to show significant double-digit increases in exports with U.S. firms planning capacity additions to further increase exports in the future. We expect European imports to start stalling and we may see some declines, especially as summer sets in. However, the theme of increased [indiscernible] imports also continues to be shut down even though LPG is not sanctioned, remains valid and better slow. Apart from Europe, the largest importer of LPG, India, China, Korea and Japan, have increased their imports. The rate reduction in LPG contract prices by price setter Saudi Arabia should be an opportunity for importers to restock. As far as China, the lifting of COVID restrictions led to a 4.5% increase in GDP in the first quarter, and the significant increase in imports of LPG, also positive for the short-term outlook is the fact that margins for PDH plants have finally turned positive and we see reported an increase in utilization rates for the production polypropylene. We have mentioned before that the main catalyst for China is LPG demand will be the increased capacity of the PDH plants that use imported propane as a feedstock. These plants have been plagued by [has a] delays and low production run rates due to the unfavorable margin, but the rapid expansion of PDH capacity in China over the last few years is certain. On Slide 11, we are presenting some of the key fundamentals in our shipping market commencing with the market rates for our market. During Q1 ‘23, [indiscernible], looking at the table in the published rates on a 1 year-over-year basis. There continues to be healthy growth between 4% and 15%, depending on the size and location. Looking at the small LPGs. West of Suez and spot market has remained tight since our last call, and charters have been left with few choices of vessels for their cargoes. And consequently, owners have been able to keep it at strong levels while also keeping idle time at a minimum. East of Suez and spot market in Asia has been a bit more active lately on both petchems and LPG, but there continues to be a high degree of typical TC coverage amongst the charters in the area. The pellet market has been relatively quiet as the TC coverage amongst charters was already high. Rates are marching upward slightly, but the gap with the titrate being fixed West of Suez is increasing. For the Handy Size vessels, the spot market has continued to be tight with very limited products coming available for spot cargoes. Charters have on several occasions found themselves with potential cargoes to list but no vessels to list them. On the pillar side, you have seen a bit of activity. Several existing charters have been extended and a couple of new ones concluded. The market remains tight, even though we’ve seen some of the short-term among charters coming to an end and the vessels switching back to LPG. The fundamentals of our core fleet of small pressurized ships continue to look promising as almost one-third of the fleet is over 20 years of age. As the market remains strong, trapping activity continues to remain subdued. Even the older vessels that we recently sold were destined for further trading. We should expect a tighter regulation in the future will push some of these vessels to get scrapped. The ordering activity continues to be subdued with only a handful of additional vessels being ordered. As per recent published orders, there are about 21 ships on order to be delivered in the next couple of years, including a couple that are set for 2023 deliveries but has gone under the radar. Such an order book in itself is not posing a risk of upsetting the balance of the market. We continue to believe that the risk of seeing bulk ordering of new vessels that keep the supply-demand balance is improbable. A sub-2% annual increase in the fleet before scrapping is one of the smallest, if not the smallest, in all shipping segments. On Slide 12, we are showing the evolution of our LPG fleet. In this slide, for comparison purposes, we have excluded the bank investors that we held up until 2021, and we are focusing on the pure LPG fleet in terms of cubic capacity, including the JV vessels. We have always been active in the sell and purchase market buying and selling ships. With the asset values rising as a result of the strong market, we find it an opportune time to sell some ships. After selling 4 of them in 2022 and 4 more this year as well as 1 vessel sold by our JV, we entered into an agreement to sell another 4 vessels for about $70 million in aggregate. We will record profits from these sales, but we are looking to sell more vessels if the price is right. Peru such sales have reduced the average age of our fleet to 9 years, which is quite more than for industry standards. Our JVs will also opportunistically sell vessels and occasionally buy as, for example, the one newbuilding medium gas carrier that our JV in demand is now expected to deliver in September this year. In Arcole fleet, we expect that with the addition of the 40,000 cubic meter newbuildings. Starting in late 2023, we will once again increase the capacity in terms of cubic meters while being able to better serve the diverse needs of our customers with ships of all sizes. It’s a strategic decision to diversify the fleet in and split in between smaller vessels that we have traditionally operated and larger vessels, Handysize and medium gas carriers that have slowly been entering our fleet since 2018. In Slide 13, we are outlining some of the key variables that may affect our performance in the quarters ahead. Obviously, the most important development is that we have mentioned earlier the reopening of China after a long wait of 2 years. With the Chinese economy back on track, we already see increased LPG trading. On the other hand, we are entering the summer months where normally demand for LPG is less strong. Summing up, we are reaping the fruits of the favorable market conditions and our sound business strategy and execution. After having reported in the previous quarter record annual profits, it’s with great pleasure that we announce this time record quarterly profits. The low double bottom line results were driven by two factors. The strong performance of revenue generation from our existing fleet and the returns we realized from the investments in our JVs following the sale of one vessel. The profitable sale of four vessels that we announced today will further boost our future results. We are taking the opportunity to divest assets in a rising market, and we will continue to diversify the fleet with the timely addition of bigger ships. At the same time, we are renewing our efforts to contain our cost base, and we will make use of our liquidity to deleverage in a rising interest rate environment and return value back to our shareholders via a $15 million share buyback. We are expecting stats will solidify the company’s future, while at the same time, we remain positive for the medium-term outlook for the LPG market. We have entered a period where the yields that we can provide to our shareholders can be substantial. We are taking advantage of the strong markets and have continued strengthening our balance sheet, which we believe will enable the seamless, continuous operations of our company. Luckily, we remain committed in our disciplined and balanced strategy that should continue to allow us to generate shareholder value throughout the market cycles. We have now reached the end of our presentation, and we should open the floor for questions.