Presentation
Management
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN)
Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 20, 2014
$17.75
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1 Month
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Presentation
Management
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Cedar Fair Fourth Quarter and Year End Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Ms. Stacy Frole, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Stacy Frole - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
Management
Thank you, Daniele. Good morning, and welcome to our 2013 year end earnings conference call. I am Stacy Frole, Cedar Fair’s Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. This morning we issued our 2013 fourth quarter and year end earnings release. A copy of that release can be obtained on our corporate website at www.cedarfair.com or by contacting our Investor Relations Offices at 419-627-2233. Joining us on the call this morning with prepared remarks are Matt Ouimet, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Witherow, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Richard Zimmerman, our Chief Operating Officer is also with us today for the call. Before we begin, I need to caution you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in such statements. You may refer to filings by the company with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of these risks. In addition, in accordance with Regulation G, non-GAAP financial measures used on the conference call today are required to be reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. During today’s call, we will make reference to adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP and important measure of operating results in our business. Please refer to our earnings release for a definition and reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA. The required reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA is also available on our website via the conference call access page. In compliance with SEC Regulation FD, this webcast is being made available to the media and the general public, as well as analysts and investors. Because the webcast is open to all constituents and prior notification has been widely and unselectively disseminated, all content of the call will be considered fully disclosed. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Matt Ouimet.
Matt Ouimet - President and Chief Executive Officer
Management
Thank you, Stacy and good morning everyone. On behalf of our management team, I am pleased to report that 2013 was indeed a remarkable year for Cedar Fair. Building upon our previous record results, full year net revenues increased 6% and adjusted EBITDA increased 9% leading us to an industry high adjusted EBITDA margin of 37.5%. Strength came from all areas of our business as comparable park attendance increased 2%; average in-park guest per capita spending increased 5%; and out of park revenues, including our resort accommodations increased 6%. Our strong current year performance is attributable to the continued success of our FUNforward long-term growth initiatives, which we identified just a little over two years ago in January 2012. As a reminder, these initiatives focused on six key growth drivers of our business and enhanced guest experience, improved consumer messaging, dynamic pricing and advanced purchase commitments, premium product offerings, strategic alliance fees and promotional leverage, and capital and expense productivity. We have been fortunate that many of these initiatives have gained traction faster and to a greater degree than we had initially anticipated. On the strength of these initiatives, we expect to achieve our FUNforward long-term growth goal of $450 million in adjusted EBITDA, at least one year, if not two years earlier than our original target of 2016. Brian will provide the financial detail behind these results shortly, but before he does, I want to take this opportunity to provide insight into our decision process surrounding a couple of our key business drivers. At this time of year, it is particularly relevant to consider the enhancements we are making to the guest experience that have and will continue to support both attendance and pricing growth. As we reflect back in our top two performers for 2013, Cedar Point in…
Matt Ouimet - President and Chief Executive Officer
Management
Thank you, Brian. Now looking toward the future, our management team continues to identify new opportunities to drive even higher returns from our capital investment. In 2014, we are focused on introducing new experiences that will continue to be favorite attractions into future decades. We will launch Banshee, the longest inverted coaster in the world at Kings Island. Guests visiting Kings Island can also expect new dining experiences, new areas to relax and new live entertainment options as we continue to focus on providing a balanced selection of offerings for the whole family to enjoy. At Canada’s Wonderland, we will introduce an interactive dark ride, Wonder Mountain’s Guardian. This innovative new ride combines the coaster track with an interactive digital gaming system. This is a great example of investing in innovation to scale as our guests compete with their family and friends on the longest interactive screen in the world. We are confident guests of all ages will ride multiple times, as each ride provides a new interactive experience. This is our first step into what we hope will be the creation of a digital content library, which can be shared across multiple parks. In addition, our marketable capital in 2014 will feature complete renovations to the Camp Snoopy children’s area and the iconic Calico Mine ride at Knott’s Berry Farm, a major water park expansion in Dorney Park, and a refreshment of the Gemini Midway, including several new family-oriented attractions at Cedar Point. Other capital projects for 2014 include new cabin accommodations at two of our properties and an exciting new in-park TV network, which will allow further interaction with our guests. Finally, our resort guests at Cedar Point will see a new exterior look to our historic Hotel Breakers. That’s the first phase of a two-year project to…
Stacy Frole - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
Operator
Great. I think we are ready for questions.
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from James Hardiman with Longbow Research. Please go ahead.
James Hardiman - Longbow Research
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my call and congrats on a great year. Just a couple follow-up items here just real quickly, Brian. So this OpEx increase in the fourth quarter, you talked about a special recognition bonus in the equity-based comp. How should we think about those in 2014, I’m assuming that bonus goes away and sort of what are the conditions that will drive the equity base comps, fundamentally how should we think about OpEx, whether it’s fourth quarter of next year, or just on a full-year basis, ex those items?
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Sure, James. So as far as the equity comp that’s really going to be a function of in large part what the units do from a market price perspective over the course of 2014 so, given the list that we saw in 2013 in particular towards the latter part of the year that influenced those plans and not be related expenses directly. As far as the one-time bonus, it’s not a big material number I would say it’s low single digits in millions of dollars so that was a one-time whether or not we would activate something similar in 2014 was really have to be based on results in ’14, but you can take that for what it’s worth. James Hardiman – Longbow Research: Great. And then I guess just bigger picture, and Brian or Matt can take this one I guess. Just how should we think about the natural operating leverage of the business? I think, Matt, coming into the year, we still sort of frame 2013 as a year that you were not necessarily maximizing the margin opportunity based on a number of the investments you were making. I guess two questions. One, as we think about 2014, is that another sort of investment year? You actually did a great job in ‘13, and the flow through was fantastic, but does that get better in 2014 and if not, when does that happen and what does that sort of operating leverage look like?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Yes, James. Good morning and a very fair question. You have heard me talk about in the past that in the pat that we need to take a very balanced approach, but this is a very effective business model with a high degree of leverage particularly if you’re able to push pricing. But at the same time, we want to make sure that the repeat visitation pattern that we’re seeing in a favorable way continued. So, we will continue to see – you will continue to see leverage out of the system. I don’t know that it will be much different than what we achieved this year at least for the next couple of years because we still think there is growth opportunity from new initiatives, which put a little pressure on that James, or more importantly I think we just have to be consumers, at some point be respectful of the margin that the customer will feel and so at this point I think you could expect to see the similar leverage next year assuming we achieved these remarkable results again, but it’s not the primary focus for us.
Stacy Frole
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Operator?
Operator
Operator
And our next question is from Barton Crockett with FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Barton Crockett - FBR Capital Markets
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Okay, great. Thank you for taking the question. I was curious about your CapEx trajectory after this year, I mean, this year, obviously you’ve spoken to a step-up in spending on initiatives that seem interesting and promising. How do you feel about the potential at this point for that pace to maybe level to kind of the normalized trend in after 2014 or do you think there is a possibility you’ll keep on spending at this pace for a number of years?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
There are generally three components we look at – when we look at our capital spend and Brian you can jump in here. But from the next two, three years, this is this is probably more of a normal level of spend. We spend about 9% of revenue on marketable capital, which I think we focus on pretty specifically say, we’re also in our entry by the growth capital opportunity that are available to us. And this year as we say we’re expanding some resort accommodations particularly some cabin properties at a couple of resorts, which we think will give us a higher return then hurdle by a substantial amount. And then we’re still working through a little pool of catch up capital or deferred capital particularly on the hotel renovations, which happen over the next two years. So, I would say for the predictable future, this is about the level we will spend.
Barton Crockett - FBR Capital Markets
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Okay. So if this is the level you’re spending, how do you feel about your ability to raise your payouts, obviously it’s dependent on what your EBITDA trajectory is, but in general, does your gut tell you that you’ll be able to raise the payout and grow free cash flow while spending at the tightened CapEx, or do you think that might take a break for that?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
No, that won’t take a break. The investment thesis behind this product has a substantial interest in the distribution and we are committed to a paced growth in that distribution on a sustainable basis and we have said that that distribution will grow at least at the pace that EBITDA grows. And the good news is I think these investments are going to generate larger EBITDA will support a larger distribution. So now, that remains a priority for the management and the Board.
Barton Crockett - FBR Capital Markets
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Okay and then one additional question if I could on the MLP structure, could you update us on where you are in terms of using up the NOLs for the non-MLP parks and how you feel about the potential to perhaps over time roll those non-MLP parks into the MLP structure if that might be something possible?
Brian Witherow
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Yes, Barton, this is Brian. So as far as the NOLs in the non-MLP parks, based on our forecast those NOLs will effectively be used up over the next two to three years, so looking out towards ’16 we should start to see cash tax number going up. With that in mind we are spending a lot of time, Dave Hoffman, our Chief Accounting Officer is spending a great deal of his time working with our tax advisors on some potential opportunities to reduce our exposure on that front, one of which could be possibly bringing the non-MLP parks into that structure, but there is still lot of work to be done and that before we know for certain what that path might look like.
Barton Crockett - FBR Capital Markets
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Okay, great. Thank you.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Thanks Barton.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Ray Cheesman from Anfield Capital. Please go ahead.
Ray Cheesman - Anfield Capital
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
Congratulations on a very nice year.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
Thanks Ray.
Ray Cheesman - Anfield Capital
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
The question is your current properties, obviously you are and you have been investing very thoughtfully into them and the returns have been very high. Once you get passed your 450 number which again terrific news that you are going to be one to two years early, what do you see going forward to be able to raise the target from the identical properties or must you go out and find ’12, ’13, ’14 had to build on to continue to kind of growth you have shown in the markets over the last couple of years?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
So Brian jump-in if I miss something. I don’t think we are done yet in the foreseeable future of extracting the value potential from the parks that exist in our portfolio. And the best example of that quite honestly is the investments we are making in the Carowinds in Charlotte. If you look at the demographic forecast Charlotte projected to be the size of Houston in the next 20 years. And that park is the modest-sized park by our typical standards. The Santa Clara property, which I referenced that we have the synergistic relationship with the 49ers is a property in a very dynamic market that we feel strongly about. And then Valleyfair Minneapolis is something that is probably undersized relative to that market. So I would say in the foreseeable three to five years those type of organic opportunities are available to us. And then some of the stuff that we put in place over the last two to three years for properties that probably are at kind of maximum sale will drive more revenue opportunities for places like Cedar Point where again we saw probably our largest growth in revenue last year. So my challenge from the Board appropriately so in 2014 is to figure out what happens after 450. It’s a fair challenge, but I am pretty optimistic about it.
Ray Cheesman - Anfield Capital
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
How does 515 sound?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
I will get back to you Ray.
Ray Cheesman - Anfield Capital
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
Alright, I wanted to circle back, you have gotten – you have said some things and people have asked you about pricing power. A year ago if we were on this call and we played it back I think we were all still thinking about customers, uncertainty about the future. How does consumer behavior now look to you, does it look like people have gained additional confidence to you – I mean obviously you are using the word record potential for 2014, is that what you are seeing for people maybe purchasing a little earlier or little higher grade or the fourth quarter spend in the park maybe surprised you, what do you see from a consumer perspective as you look into 2014?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
Yes, we take pride on trying to be consistent on these calls. So hopefully when you play the tape back this will be close. Right now this particular product, I would say the Cedar Fair product, which obviously I am most familiar with receives a great value measured by the consumer, otherwise they wouldn’t be paying the price, they aren’t coming in the record numbers they are. So I still feel like the economy is stressed and you have got the bifurcated economy, you got the benefit oriented consumers, which are taking advantage of our premium products and we will continue to expand that portfolio much like the season pass, the all-season dining program. And then you have got the lower end consumer, which we was kind of – it’s a little tougher for them to budget. And fortunately there we have got the tool available for them in terms of the installment purchase program for our season passes. So, I’m still bullish about it although, I have said in the past we will continue to push pricing until we bump our head and we haven’t yet bump our head so, as long as we could deliver a great value proposition and that’s why I’m little more tempered on the margin and perhaps you likely to be. I think we’re still in good shape for this particular product the consumer seems to have a preference for still doing there, their ritual amusement park visit.
Ray Cheesman - Anfield Capital
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
Last, probably an easier one. Your Coke alliance seems to have done very nice things for you. I know you said in the past that on a regional basis, it’s a little harder to get a big name to cover everything, but are there other alliances which present themselves which you think might be beneficial in a year or two ahead?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
There are some people we talk to that I’m not prepared to address that we do look for leveraging strategic alliances and quite honestly to give a little more disclosure, those people are starting to line up as we think about the in park TV network.
Ray Cheesman - Anfield Capital
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
Super. Thanks very much and again congrats on a great year.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Anfield Capital. Please go ahead
Thank you, Ray.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Thank you. And Matt, congratulations you, Richard, Brian and the whole team again also.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tim.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
A real easy one here, just a clarification on the $145 million of CapEx in the press release, does that include the other pieces, Matt, the catch up capital with the hotels and the growth capital also?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Yes.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Okay, great. Thank you. Regarding 2014 and looking – you said you’re going to be pushing price until you bump your head, basically, but I guess without talking percentages or anything, if you stand back, do you still anticipate admissions per caps growing faster than in-park or should we think about that more in a balanced perspective?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
I think about it well, Tim, it’s a great question, what I’ve been extremely pleased by and Richard and his team get the credit for it, even as we continue to grow modestly our percentage which is season asset attendance. We still grow in park and we still grow the front gate, which both you would expect to be a diluted a little bit, right. So, now I expect to see growth in both of those this year. The two years ago, not even two seasons ago, we hired a guy to run the food and beverage operation for us from the Levy Restaurant Group. So he got great traction last year, but again to use the phrase everybody seems to like, he’s still on the early innings. We’re introducing in Carowinds, as an example a very efficient large scale of the indoor dining facility that we think we’ll bump the per-cap at a park that has a lowest food and beverage per-cap in our system and so there is still those type of opportunities out there.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Okay, okay. And then if we look at the season passes as a percent of your attendance, just an update number on that. And then what you are rolling out in Toronto, again since you announced it, the digital interactive sounds very, very opportunistic here. That should drive additional revenues. At what point will you start making decisions to after the first year obviously in Toronto, but to roll that out potentially to other parks?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Yeah, I’ll take that and then I’ll turn the season pass over to Brian. Look, I said before that recent park industry hasn’t really been by the expansion of digital entertainment options. But we also haven’t taken advantage of it and so, I’ve got Richard sitting across the table from it. We got an update from our new Director of Entertainment yesterday and was the Guardian project is most outstanding and more importantly it looks strong. So, we will not wait a years to pull the trigger for another one. We will obviously our seasons define when we will want to deliver it. But I would say that within 30 days of instillation if it’s successful will be talking to our friends in Montreal about how to do more things with it. And I remind people on it, the interactive game component at Halloween takes – you hit a switch and it automatically converts from the dragon to the zombies. And we think that type of refracting in season and then promise to each season is going to be really valuable to us.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Okay, okay.
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
As far as season past performance as we said that channel continues to an area of meaningful growth for us. In 2013, season pass visitation represented a little north of 40% of our total attendance, which is up about 200 to 300 basis points from where it was in 2012.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Okay.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
And Tim if I could build off that one thing Brian said something in his comments that I think is important, which is but in a script, which is that we also study unique visitors. One of the concerns that I’ve had coming in was that maybe the growth in season pass program was shadowing the fact that we were losing traffic in terms of unique individuals, which would not be a good thing. And so all the work we have done this year, Kelley Semmelroth, our CMO, the Insight Group, CRM, etcetera has confirmed that the attendance growth we saw this year was primarily new individuals, which obviously is important for a healthy business. So, I just want to point that out.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
And then one last question, Matt, if I may along that line and of those new visitors are you seeing and you referenced earlier the bifurcation of your customer that we are seeing across the whole economy, but are you seeing of those unique new visitors, are they – how are they skewed versus let’s call it the folks that would be going more towards the installment plan versus those who may consider season pass?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
I will give you some sound bites, Tim. It’s not complete and please appreciate that some of that we just like to keep to ourselves.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Understood.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
We are seeing more young families, which is great as you think about building a repeat visitation base. We are seeing the average visitation at or above what we see from the people who have been in the system a while. That’s important, because they have got to get the value out of the season pass. And so you want to visit the 4.5 plus times. And we are seeing that their spending is generally what we see from everybody else. So, I am pleased by that, because I think you got to be careful in this business not to take attendance. And so I think right now Kelley’s programs as it relates to our marketing programs are making sure that we are getting an audience that is purely incremental and valuable to it.
Tim Conder - Wells Fargo Securities
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from John Hwang from Crescent Capital. Please go ahead.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Hey guys. Thanks for taking my questions.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Sure John.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Maybe I missed this and I apologize if I did, but could you just give me a little color on Q4 in terms of attendance and in part guest per capita spending? I didn’t realize it’s obviously not one of your peak quarters, but…
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
So the trends we saw generally to keep in mind in Q4, you have the Halloween programs and then you generally – and then we continue all the parks close except for Knott’s Berry Farm. So, what I would tell you about Q4 is the trends we saw for the year generally extended themselves certainly through Halloween and then Knott’s had quite honestly a remarkable attendance numbers for November and December. And you can follow up with Stacy and Lisa later if you want more detail.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Well, in terms of exact percentage year-over-year?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Yes. We generally continue the trend that we saw in the – about the rest of the year.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Right. Because your sales for the quarter were up, your EBITDA was down slightly or sales were up about 7.5% and EBITDA was down about 20%, so I am just trying to bridge how about in-park guest per capita spending?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Up as well, but go ahead Brian. There are some component parts in there we should explain.
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Yes, as we said in our prepared comments John, really the fourth quarter is a little anomalistic in – on the cost side, there were a number of initiatives that were cost oriented that we talked specifically about the compensation-related items, our performance-based compensation that came through in the fourth quarter based on the record year much higher than what it would have been in 2012 as well as a one-time bonus to our full-time and part-time park level employees for the strong year. And there was also some off-season maintenance cost in 2013 that from a timing perspective, don’t marry up with what we would have seen in 2012 as most of those costs were accelerated into the early shoulder season based on a mild winter that year. So, in 2013, those cost was maintenance type costs, painting up coasters, reworking of maybe a wood coaster track, etcetera, those things were done in a much more normalized, what I’d call, normalized basis in 2013 elevating those costs. So I think we are just seeing in the fourth quarter of ‘13 there is a little bit of a normalization as it relates to some maintenance cost, but also some incremental cost that wouldn’t necessarily repeat in the fourth quarter of 2014.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Okay. And then I think you guys touched on this a little bit, but in terms of any color that you can give on 2014 thus far in terms of advanced ticket sales. I think you had touched on sort of ‘13 versus ‘12 and if you can give any guidance as to sort of what you guys are seeing right now in terms of the season pass advance sales?
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Sure John. So, from a season pass perspective as well as I’ll throw group bookings in there, we don’t have a lot of long lead indicators unfortunately in this space. So, what visibility we have to-date is only a small portion of the full year. So take that with my – grain of salt with these comments. But the trends in both our season pass and group bookings are up from this point – at this point in time versus a year ago. As a point of reference I can tell you that deferred revenue at the end of 2013 was up 13% from where it was in 2012 reflective of that. So we have continued to see that positive in the first two months here of 2014 of really the lion’s share of activity on season pass sales, group bookings is really going happen over the next two to three months so that will be – that will really be the point of proof in how the ’14 season is going to shake out.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Okay, that’s helpful and just lastly, check the box item, but in terms of your $255 million revolver, you guys have nothing drawn on it, but have a number of LCs against that, right, issued against it?
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Yes, small number $10 million to $15 million of LCs against it, nothing new.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Okay, so the bulk of it’s still available”
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Correct.
John Hwang - Crescent Capital
Analyst · Crescent Capital. Please go ahead
Okay, that’s it. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Tom (indiscernible). Please go ahead.
Stacy Frole
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Tom, are you there? It looks like we may have lost Tom...
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Can you hear me?
Stacy Frole
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Yes.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Yes, here we go.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. I am sorry, it’s Andrew (Goss). The question I have is, given the strong performance in ‘13, I was just wondering. It was – if I remember correctly what your long-term revenue targets were, it’s nicely above that, I was just wondering how you think about the long-term revenue potential of the business, given how you did in ‘13 and how it changes your thinking, if at all?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
It’s a fair question, right. So over the last three years we generally accelerated the pace that was uncommon I would say in our history although we have a long history of being successful, which is nice to build off. Okay, this is my fourth operating season and there is a lot that we have – as a new management team haven’t been able to get to use, so I am not – I am I was going to say not concerned, I am always concerned. But what I think will happen here is we will continue to show growth above our historical pace for at least the next few years. There are so many things that we haven’t had to – had the opportunity to either get to or fully take advantage of. So if you would asked me three years ago, I would have been a little more pensive, but the more I see, the more optimistic I am.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. So I was just wondering when you look out beyond the three years, do you think the industry should only grow in the low single digits, I am just curious because Disney, which you ran, grew gross nicer than that, a lot nicer. I am just wondering how you are thinking about that?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Well, I would say they grow a lot nicer by spending billions of dollars that this industry is never going to spend in the past. So I will do return on capital with you someday versus that.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Okay.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from James Hardiman with Longbow Research. Please go ahead.
James Hardiman - Longbow Research
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Hi, guys, thanks for taking the follow-up here. Sorry, I think I hung up on myself earlier in the call. So I just wanted to circle back on the CapEx. Obviously, that’s a much higher percentage of sales than historically you have guided. Where does that number go to in ’15 and sort of beyond, do we get back closer to that 9% number? And then as I think about sort of the return on that spend, just because the CapEx is higher, talk a little bit about what type of an impact you think that might have on attendance or sales. Obviously, you had a fantastic new addition in ’13 at your most important park, and that was a really big deal. And I guess, to a degree, this is sort of like asking which of your children do you like the most, but if we could compare sort of the 2014 capital investments to ’13, anything you would call out there?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Yes, so I will break it into pieces and Brian can touch on it. The call out in summary of 145 is exactly what we talked about towards the last year plus. And so I don’t see marketable capital going over the 9% level. The – we took the money of the two water parks we sold and we are reinvesting that where we expect to get about $15 million that we are reinvesting. We expect to get a return well in excess of our hurdle rate of 15%. And then the balance of that spend in the next couple of years is dominated by the redo of the Breakers Hotel, which we also have an IRR associated with it, although lower simply, because a lot of that was required refreshment after using the property for so many years. So I think you are seeing a relatively stable level of investment for the next two to three years in that 145 range, assuming James and importantly, that the growth capital gives us the returns we want. If our experiment with some of this growth capital, pretty low-risk stuff like cabins, does not give us the return and Brian is pretty good about keeping us honest on that, then we will not continue to invest the growth capital. So as long as we see the return, we are going to grow this. We are going to spend capital to grow this business within the boundaries that I just described. Brian?
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Yes. James, just to add to what Matt said, I mean we continue to manage the capital program in those three buckets really to hold ourselves accountable to a discipline as to what projects we are willing to take on. As Matt indicated, the marketable capital is going to we are holding ourselves, right, wrong, or indifferent to that 9%. And we know there is a number of projects in the pass that we haven’t gotten to that have attractive returns on them, such as the cabins, the TV network, that the sale of those two California water parks is giving us the opportunity to take some of that – roughly 30 million in proceeds and allocate that back towards these, what we’ll call, complementary growth projects. But I will tell you within that bucket, we are holding ourselves to a discipline that any project that get fits into that bucket has to have an incremental revenue/EBITDA stream associated with it. We will not expand the marketable capital and invest in incremental roller coasters or other attractions that have that episodic attendance lift. And that’s just an internal discipline that we are holding ourselves to. As far as the infrastructure work that we are doing like the Hotel Breakers, while maybe in some of those projects have low near-term ROIs, a number of them set the stage for longer term marketable capital programs that we want to activate. Good example is the work we did on the Mountain at Canada’s Wonderland that has now made the dark ride, the interactive dark ride for ‘14 a reality. So, there will be a number of those things but we are going to continue to manage them in those three silos or three buckets, if you will, and maintain those disciplines and not move off of those disciplines.
James Hardiman - Longbow Research
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Certainly, helpful guys. And then just a nitty-gritty modeling question here, and I apologize if you answered this, I missed a couple minutes there. So Easter shift, it seems like Easter is going to move around a little bit here. How much of an impact if any do you think that has on your first quarter and second quarter business as we think about modeling that? And I guess sort of beyond that I don’t know any sort of qualitative or ideally quantitative discussion on how much weather impacted your business? I know that’s your least favorite question blaming anything on weather, but you did have some pretty bad weather in the second quarter last year, any thoughts there?
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Alright. So I will take the first part as far as the timing of the calendar. One thing I want to point out in relation to that, let’s talk operating days for a second, James. Not much of a shift in operating days on a same park basis, but keep in mind, the sale of the Palm Springs water park will take roughly 120 operating days out of our system in 2014 that we had in 2013. As far as the calendar shift is concerned with Eastern being later, no real impact between first and second quarter in the number of operating days, because the park with the most meaningful operating days for us is Knott’s Berry Farm, which is year round. I will say, on an attendance basis, we do anticipate a shift from Q1 to Q2 that could be as much as a 125,000 to 150,000 visits. So, that’s a rough estimate as to what we think the visitation shift could be Q1 and Q2.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
And James, I think the opportunity of the weather to say a couple of things. We do think it balanced itself out over the course of last year as I said before. My General Manager in Canada would disagree with me. But what happened was a lot of that weather was bad weather was early which allowed us to recapture. And the other thing that the industry has gotten better at is this advance purchase commitment helps mitigate the impact of weather. And so I think the season pass visitors still visited almost exactly the same amount they did last year. People who deferred visits in the early months, because the weather wasn’t quite what they wanted came later. So by the end of the year, we have balanced it out.
James Hardiman - Longbow Research
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Extremely helpful. Thanks guys. Good luck this year.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Thanks, James.
Brian Witherow
Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead
Thanks, James.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Steve Altebrando with Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead. Steve Altebrando - Sidoti & Company: Hi, good morning. Were there any parks in 2013 that were meaningful outperformers and specifically I am thinking of Cedar Point and Gatekeeper, whether that creates a tough comp for you guys in ’14?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
We are pretty optimistic about this sophomore year here, but clearly Cedar Point, Knott’s Berry Farm and Worlds of Fun led the pack last year. Steve Altebrando - Sidoti & Company: Okay. And then in terms of getting back to the season pass, you mentioned it’s a relatively small piece so far, could you put a rough percentage on that in terms of how much of your season pass is typically sold by now, say late February?
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
I would say Steve less than 15% of season pass would be sold now. Well, as I said the lion’s share will happen in the March through June timeframe by the end of June we should be north of 80% to 85% of season pass sale. So if you can tell there is the new few months are really critical. Steve Altebrando - Sidoti & Company: Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.
Matt Ouimet
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
Thank you, Steve.
Operator
Operator
And there are no questions in the queue at this time. Please continue with any closing statements.
Matt Ouimet - President and Chief Executive Officer
Management
Well, first and importantly, I want to thank you for your time and continued interest in Cedar Fair. We remind our employees on a regular basis that we are in a business of fun. In addition to years of experience in the industry, our teams have a passion for entertaining guests and as long as we keep the guest experience at the forefront of everything we do, I am confident Cedar Fair will continue to build on its decades of success for many years to come. And now as I am sure everyone on this call will agree we are looking forward to warmer weather and the summer season. So Stacy?
Stacy Frole - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
Operator
Thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. If you have any follow-up questions please feel free to contact me at 419-627-2227 or Lisa Broussard at 419-609-5929. We look forward to speaking with you again in about three months to discuss our first quarter results for 2014.