Earnings Labs

Frontline Ltd. (FRO)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Sat, Jun 12, 2010

$36.14

+0.08%

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Transcript

Jens Jensen

Management

Morning, afternoon and welcome to our Q1 2010 presentation. I think we had a pretty good result in the first quarter of the year, especially when we compare to what our benchmark competitors has reported. We will follow our usual program for this presentation with our CFO, Inger Klemp, going through the Q1 highlights and transactions, financial review of the quarter and the update of our newbuilding program and finance of the same. Thereafter, I will go through some market slides and sectors and outlook on how we see ourselves. And after that, there should be time for some questions. Inger, please?

Inger Klemp

CFO

Thanks, Jens and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I will guide you through the highlights and the financial review in the first quarter 2010 together with a run-through of the newbuilding program. Moving to Slide 4, in March 2010, the Frontline announced the successful completion of its $225 million convertible bond offering. The proceeds from these bonds will be used for general corporate purposes, financing on the remaining equity investments in the company's newbuilding program and will improve the company's ability to react to attractive market opportunities. In January, March and May 2010, we took delivery of three out of total four Suezmax newbuildings from Rongsheng, and a compensation payment for delayed delivery when negotiated with the yard for all these three vessels. In April 2010, Frontline announced the acquisition of two 2009-built double hull VLCC tankers. And the first vessel was renamed Front Eminence was delivered on May 18, 2010, and the second vessel is expected to be delivered in June 2010 and will be renamed Front Endurance. In May, we secured long-term bank financing for these vessels, representing 70% of the purchase price. In February 2010, Frontline agreed with Ship Finance to reduce the restricted cash deposits relating to 31 double hull crude oil tankers and OBOs by approximately $112 million. Further, the parties agreed a net upfront payment of charterhire less operating expenses of approximately $74 million, covering 80% of the payments due over the next six months. This change of structure took effect from April 1, 2010. These solutions will reduce Frontline's cash break-even level for these vessels and improve Frontline's free cash balance by approximately $112 million during the next two quarters. From April 1, 2010, restricted cash is thereby reduced to $62 million. In March 2010, Frontline agreed with Ship Finance…

Jens Jensen

Management

Thank you, Inger. We are now on Slide 17 which is about the market. Historically, it was a pretty decent quarter with VLCC earnings of about $50,000 a day and Suezmaxes around $30,000 a day. Positive factors being limited fleet growth due to fewer deliveries than estimated cost acceleration of the single hull phase out. Storage remained, again, a positive factor with estimated 50 VLCCs being used for storage with majority obviously being the hull whole in ITC fleet being tied up for storage. OPEC production was up compared to a year ago and so was the global oil demand. China's crude oil import remains strong and it has a very positive ton-mile effect with large volumes being imported from the Caribbean and West Africa. 21 single hull VLCCs have, so far being removed from the trading fleet and nine Suezmaxes has followed the same route. Now we're on Slide 18, VLCC Fleet. As mentioned, we have had a very limited fleet growth in the first quarter. And if the single hull phase out will continue throughout the year, you'll see a very minimal VLCC fleet growth this year. On paper, the order book in 2011 looks a bit alarming, but remember, the VLCC is being delivered next year on average order at prices of more than USD $135 million and some owners may find this hard to get. On Slide 19, Suezmax Fleet. As we have seen during the last 18 months, net newbuildings was delivered than was appeared on the official newbuilding list, and we see this continuing for the rest of the year. With a limited single hull Suezmax fleet remaining, we will, however, have quite a fleet growth which is not really what we need. If we go to Slide 20, newbuilding prices and time charter…

Operator

Operator

We take our first question from Jon Chappell of JPMorgan. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: I have a couple of questions for you on your Slide 16, with your fleet and time charter coverage. First, it's been reported in some brokerage reports that you put three VLCCs on short-term floating storage at rates that are very strong relative to spotter or even time charter rates you can achieve right now. Are any short-term floating storage charters reflected in your time charter coverage that you put in Slide 16?

Jens Jensen

Management

No, anything below six months is not on the time charter coverage. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Could you give us an update on how many ships maybe on charters under six months?

Jens Jensen

Management

I would say the last 24 hours have been quite busy obviously with the oil streaming away in the heavy contango. So I think we are working maybe between five and 10 VLCCs now on storage projects. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: And are the rates, newbuilder rates, it's on the brokerage reports around 65,000 for three to six months. Are those accurate or is maybe little bit lower than that?

Jens Jensen

Management

Some rates are lower than that. It depends a bit on the delivery area and timing, but I would say, what we had seen in the market now, we see rates between 50,000 and 65,000. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Another question is on Slide 7 really quickly in the first quarter rate results. You mentioned $54,000 a day for VLCCs excluding floating charter. What does floating charter refer to? Is that short-term floating storage? Is that time charter? Is that guarantee utilization but around like a TD3-based rate?

Jens Jensen

Management

I think you're pretty much correct. These time charters, obviously, longer than six months, typically, between one and two years with a rate -- it's a time charter and the rate is determined by some of the TD3, some are mixture of TD3 and other market-related indexes. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Inger, you said three dry-dockings for the second quarter. Is there a preliminary estimate as to what the dry-dockings might be in the third and fourth quarters of this year?

Inger Klemp

CFO

No, I'm sorry. We have not. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Should we look for similar number to 2009, or is there a lot more, a lot less?

Jens Jensen

Management

It will be less, it will be less.

Inger Klemp

CFO

That will be less, yes. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Inger, you mentioned in your comments that you don't need operating cash flow now to finance your capital commitments for your newbuildings and obviously, the $0.75 dividend declared this quarter was much larger than we've seen in the last two years. Does this market returned to Frontline paying a floating dividend based on the operating earnings generated in each quarter?

Inger Klemp

CFO

Well, I don't think it marks any return to anything. I think we have had that stuff [ph] all the way. We always pay what we have in excess cash to our shareholders. Jonathan Chappell - JP Morgan Chase & Co: But it's consistently $0.25 throughout 2009 and this is a pretty big jump. So we should look for...

Inger Klemp

CFO

Yes, it was less in 2009, so the excess cash flow was less at that time.

Operator

Operator

We'll move on to our next question which comes from Gregory Lewis of Crédit Suisse. Gregory Lewis - Crédit Suisse AG: It looks like there's been some variability in the rates that the OBOs are able to earn. What's that contributed to? Because it looks on a quarterly basis that 92% of the OBO fleet has been fixed, but the rate tends to sort of bounce around and I'm just trying to get a handle on why that's happening.

Jens Jensen

Management

We have one ship which was prematurely delivered last year. The Front Driver, the charter who headed on went bankrupt in beginning of 2009. And that ship we have fixed out anything between three to five months time charter. So the reason I come in effectively [ph] in the quarter is whatever that ship has resulted, that's the main difference why the fluctuations in the quarter. Gregory Lewis - Crédit Suisse AG: When I look at the two VLCCs that are scheduled to be delivered in, I guess, late 2011 and early 2012, when are the next scheduled deposit payments to the yard due for those two vessels?

Jens Jensen

Management

Only the end of this year. Later, by the end of this year. Gregory Lewis - Crédit Suisse AG: Second half of this year?

Jens Jensen

Management

Yes. Gregory Lewis - Crédit Suisse AG: I guess you're going to do the prepayment to Ship Finance. Once that prepayment is made to Ship Finance, in terms of percentage, what type of drop you expect in your average break-even cost?

Inger Klemp

CFO

We made the prepayment at the end of the first quarter, in March. And it was the consequence of the release of the restricted cash deposits. And it covers 80% of the gross charter hires for approximately six months, and the amount is $110 million in total. The exact reduction integrates the different segments, but it will be 80% reduction in the charter rates for these 31 vessels, which we're talking about. Gregory Lewis - Crédit Suisse AG: When I'm looking at Slide 10, that already includes the prepayment to Ship Finance and the lower cash break-even rates?

Inger Klemp

CFO

The Slide 10. It does not, no. Because that's the cash break-even rates that we have without taking into account the reductions.

Operator

Operator

We move on to our next question which comes from Urs Dür from Lazard Capital Markets. Urs Dür - Lazard Capital Markets LLC: Right now, we're seeing stock market that is reacting very heavily to a lot of commodity-related names, and this is really just a macro question to get your management feeling of where we're going as a side comment compared to 2008, when trade finance stopped and ship stopped, this current pullback you're seeing overall ship traffic across-the-board be quite firm. Have you seen any impact on the near-term inquiry for chartering of crude tankers going long or short distances from any of the current fears that are impacting the stock market?

Jens Jensen

Management

No, I think even many people think that 2009 was a very bad year for the crude oil tankers. It actually wasn't. We saw VLCC rates around $37,000, $38,000 a day. And of course, we have seen beginning this year be around $50,000. Right now, that seems to be a lot of demand in the market for storage, so I think some of the oil companies and the oil trader expect the oil to rebound and they are trying to position themselves now with various storage place or contango movements. I guess to answer your question, they're not seeing the financial crisis too much on the tanker side.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] On to our next question from David Neuhauser with Livermore Partners.

David Neuhauser - Livermore Partners

Analyst · Livermore Partners

My question actually is very similar to the last caller which is more of a macro question, which had to do with China, obviously, makes up a third of your market here in oil and wanted to see if we're seeing any further issues with that if we do see demand slow down here in the next several months?

Jens Jensen

Management

I had the same question when we did our presentation this morning in Norway and of course, this is purely my comment, but it's probably a good sign for the Chinese state now to buy some more oil when it's going down $10. So that was my hope that we'll see more oil going into China and some long-term mileage, but that's my view.

David Neuhauser - Livermore Partners

Analyst · Livermore Partners

And then also looking at positioning yourself moving forward, I see you're lowering your break even on the cash side. Are you viewing that as -- or are you gaining any market share as you see the shakeout take hold from last year, are you seeing further market share gains for Frontline?

Jens Jensen

Management

Well, there's been very little consolidation or cheap assets to be found. I think, we're not the only tanker company who's been looking or isn't preparing themselves but that's actually being very little. And so far, we are not seeing any distressed companies or anything like that. It could, of course, happen when you come in to the more expensive newbuilding program and if there's more tightness of financing from the banks, but so far, we have not seen this.

David Neuhauser - Livermore Partners

Analyst · Livermore Partners

If you don't see those stresses even in this pullback in the market that would maybe the outlook becoming a little more to fit, do you still see maybe further consolidation with even some of the companies that are stronger but looking to gain market share? Do you see there could be a tie up between Frontline and one of your other peers potentially?

Jens Jensen

Management

Well, we have done it with TK, of course, we have come together in a Gemini pool and we're quite happy with that tie up, so we will not mind if any other tanker out there would give us their whole fleet and we could operate it, that would be very nice.

Operator

Operator

We'll now take a question from Doug Garber of FBR Capital Markets.

Doug Garber - Fbr Asset Investment Corp.

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

My question was on asset prices and I was hoping you could shed some light on the prices for newbuilds from yards versus new resale prices, and your preference for buying or building.

Jens Jensen

Management

Of course, it will be nice to buy a ship on the water which we did one month ago, and the first ship will be delivered will go straight into our sort of busted cash flow and you make money out of it. But of course, prices have moved up the last one or two months. Of course, the alternative is to build a newbuildings. But the problem with the newbuildings, if you order right now, you'll luggage will get in 2012 delivery. And that's, of course, a bit forward. So I would say the preference would be to buy something on the water either buy or charter in right now.

Doug Garber - Fbr Asset Investment Corp.

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

What is the prices for the newbuilds for VLCC from the yard for 2012 delivery?

Jens Jensen

Management

Of course, it depends on the quality of the yard and what payment terms you're getting. But I would say in Korea, it's probably around $105 million, maybe a little bit more in China, maybe high 90s, close to 100. But that depends on the yard payment specification. So it's difficult to pinpoint exactly, but that's in that range.

Doug Garber - Fbr Asset Investment Corp.

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

So it seems like it's the same price for a newbuild versus a resale except they were two-year delay, so...

Jens Jensen

Management

Not really. If you wanted to buy a ship on the water right now, I think, you'll probably have to pay closer to $115 million actually.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] At the moment, there is no further questions in the queue, sir.

Jens Jensen

Management

Okay. Well, then I would like to say thank you for dialing in and listening in, and I would like to thank everybody in Frontline also for a very good performance in the first quarter. And we're looking forward to our second quarter. Thank you.