Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Frontline Q4 2009 results presentation conference call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jens Martin Jensen. Please go ahead, sir.
Frontline Ltd. (FRO)
Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Sat, Feb 27, 2010
$36.14
+0.08%
Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Frontline Q4 2009 results presentation conference call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jens Martin Jensen. Please go ahead, sir.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to our Q4 presentation. As I said at our Q3 presentation, there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel, and there is. The programs for this presentation will be that our Chief Financial Officer, Inger Klemp, as usual will go through the major transactions and highlights in the quarter, and thereafter, a financial review. After that, I will give a quick rundown on what happened marketwise in Q4, and otherwise on how we see things going forward, which I think is looking quite interesting. After that, there should be time for some questions. Let’s hope that we can answer. So Inger, if you could start the presentation. Thank you.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks Jens and good afternoon and good morning to you, ladies and gentlemen. Unfortunately, I have come down with the stomach flu today, but I will do my best to guide you through the highlights and the financial review in the fourth quarter of 2009, together with a run-through of the new building program. Moving to slide four; during the fourth quarter 2009, Frontline redelivered four out of the five Suezmax tankers chartered in from Eiger. The last vessel will be redelivered end February 2010. In February 2010, Frontline purchased VLCC Front Vista and sold it to a buyer who has secured a 10-year time charter with a state-owned oil company at a gross rate of $43,500 per day during the entire charter period. The purchase price will be settled through installments over a 10-year period. Frontline has in February 2010 agreed to make certain amendments to the charter agreements with Ship Finance relating to 31 double hull crude oil tankers and OBOs. Frontline has until now not guaranteed the payments under the charters, and the two chartering subsidiaries have instead been required to keep a restricted cash deposit per vessel to support the charter obligations to Ship Finance. Over the last six years, these deposits have never been touched and in view of the low interest environment this is an inefficient financial structure. We have therefore agreed with Ship Finance to reduce the restricted cash deposits by approximately $112 million in exchange for a full corporate guarantee from Frontline for the payment of charter hire. Further, the parties have agreed a net upfront payment of charter hire less operating expenses of approximately $74 million, covering 80% of the payments due over the next six months. The change of structure is expected to take effect from April 1, 2010. This…
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you, Inger. We are now at slide 17; market and earnings. Q4 was pretty dull and difficult until basically early December, when we finally saw some extra demand from mainly China, and I guess the start of the cold winter also made the sentiment change. Average earnings for VLCC were about $29,700 and for Suezmax is $23,300 in the quarter. Again, we outperformed our benchmark competitors with our well-mixed earnings profile West and East. We lost money on our chartered and Suezmax of about $7.8 million, but we managed to redeliver four of the ships during the quarter, and today we'll actually be redelivering the last ship, so that's pretty positive. Otherwise, positive market contributors in the quarter were less newbuildings was delivered compared to the perceived order. I will go into that in more detail later. Around 40 to 45 VLCCs will still remain on storage. As I mentioned, China had a very strong demand – extra strong demand in Q4; and of course, China's diverse sourcing of crude made that very positive from the ton-mile situation. Negatively for the earnings was again high and fluctuating bunker prices and very little port and weather delays in the quarter, despite being the winter season. If you look at the fleet single hull, at the end of 2009, it stands at 84 VLCCs, 15 ships were removed from trading, scrapping or conversion; 33 Suezmaxes with three ships being removed away from the list. Now we are at slide 18, the VLCC fleet. We had a fleet growth of around 8% last year. No VLCCs were ordered in the fourth quarter. If we look at the VLCC order book and the single hull fleet going forward, on paper 67 ships will delivered, and we estimate around 60 ships will be phased…
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions) We will now take our first question from Scott Burk from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead, sir. Scott Burk – Oppenheimer & Co.: Hi, good morning.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Good morning.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Good morning Scott Burk – Oppenheimer & Co.: I've got a couple of questions. First of all, you talked about how chartering is – or last quarter, you talked about chartering vessels being more attractive than buying. And you've done several of those deals right now. Does the spike in day rates that we've seen over the last month and a half or last two months change your opinion on that at all? Or do you still think chartering is more attractive than acquiring new vessels at this point?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
I think as you mentioned, the ships we have chartered in at just below $30,000 a day, if you have to pay $90 million per ship or you can charter at those levels, then it's of course more attractive to charter. The charter rate has improved or increased with the improved spot market, but I still think you can charter in VLCCs for around $34,000, $35,000 a day. So it’s still an attractive opportunity versus buying ships, yes. Scott Burk – Oppenheimer & Co.: And does the charter rate have any bearing on whether or not you actually decide to go forward with those two VLCC newbuilds for 2011 and 2012? Or is that completely independent consideration?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
I think if the market is $200,000 a day in there and $20,000 in '10 [ph], we'll probably think about it again and keep the ships, but it’s a nice option to have going forward with. Of course it’s too early now to say how this story will end. Scott Burk – Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay, but at this point, they're purely options, really no plans to actually take delivery of those vessels?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Well, it’s an option we have had, and I think that’s where we leave it right now. We have not made further comment on that. Scott Burk – Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay. Just wondering about the – let's see, I wanted to ask about the Northia delivery. It was delayed from the fourth quarter that came at the beginning of January. I assume it's fairly small but will the compensation payment – first of all, how big is that and would it just count as a reduction in capital expenditures? Or would that actually show up in the income statement?
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
It's still a reduction in the cost of vessel. Scott Burk – Oppenheimer & Co.:
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Of course, I think there's two things – many of the early generation double hulls, especially on the Suezmaxes, is allowed a center line bulkhead; and then the Gemini pool, they don’t have any ships in the pool without centerline bulkhead. But of course, we all the pool partners in the Gemini pool are contributing newbuildings into that. So we know that we have to improve the chance profile going forward. And I think we all the pool partners in the pool are committed to that factor. Scott Burk - Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay. And so the pool partners – does that mean the pool partners plan to maintain the size of the pool by renewing that fleet? Or maybe the pool gets smaller?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
We know we can expect more partners to the pool. I think we had around 45 to 50 in the pool now. And I think if you compare it to the few competitors we can benchmark against them. The pool has outperformed those. So I see no reason why we should not be able to get some more ships into the pool, maybe one or two of them in still, and that what we will work on this year. Scott Burk - Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay. And let's see, I guess I just had one more question about the dividend. You talked about the amount of contract coverage that you had that's significant – it's enough to cover all of your newbuilding commitments, etcetera. Just wondering, does that mean that your dividend will mostly be based on what your spot ships can earn above your fixed cash costs, beyond what your capital needs are?
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
As I said, when we went through that graph, I said that we had $96 million overfunding in a way for our CapEx program. That's included in that we have covered $80 million that we had in net equity investment in the CapEx program. So the overall funding there of $96 million [ph] is of course available. And then apart from that – or as you're saying, in excess of your breakeven rates on the spot levels. Scott Burk – Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay. All right, thank you.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Justin Yagerman from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Mike Weber – Deutsche Bank: This is Mike Weber [ph] on for Justin. How are you?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Good morning. Fine, thank you.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Good morning. Mike Weber – Deutsche Bank: A handful of quick questions. You noted in your release you signed in a storage contract. I just wanted to dig in a little bit on where you think single hull utilization is right now? In other words, for two months into 2010, how do you see the phase-out actually playing out, and whether or not single hulls are still involved in the bidding process for business? And whether they're still actually having a bit of an impact on the current market?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
I had the same question this morning. It's quite a relevant one. I think the utilization for (inaudible) is about 30%. Of course, if the market goes up and becomes more firm, probably the utilization will go up. But I think the majority of the owners, including ourselves, are looking, of course, at docking positions of these ships. And of course, there is some phase out when we hit the anniversary date of the ships. So I think depending on where the market is those ships will be phased out; and of course, it will be good for the market. It will be pure double hull market when we can get these ships out. We have seen whenever the market spikes a little, the first ship that actually taken is the good single hulls. So if these ships are eliminated from trading, it will be positive for the market. Mike Weber – Deutsche Bank: I mean, when you guys are out in the marketplace, are you running into these – a lot of these vessels? Are they still kind of acting as a headwind to day rates? I mean, they might not be utilized but they're still active?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
They are always being used when you have an argument with a charter. Of course, there are not many charterers that actually take single hull, but the few that does they always use them as an argument why only want to pay a certain weight. So the purpose of the single hull puts some kind of damper of your earning. Mike Weber – Deutsche Bank: All right. That makes a lot of sense. I guess changing gears real quickly, this is more of a, I guess, conceptual question. You guys talked a bit about increasing global ton-mile growth, particularly into China. I was hoping you could maybe give a little bit of color about sourcing; China sourcing grew from Venezuela and Brazil. How sustainable do think that trade is and how do you think it trends going forward?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Well, judging from Mr. Hugo Chavez’s latest speech, I think he's very I think he's very pro-China. So I think that will probably stay there. And of course the appetite for crude in China has been enormous. Today, I think, they are sourcing crude wherever they can get it from at competitive levels. And they are, of course, trying to diversify their import sources. So I think you will see quite a diverse sourcing from the Chinese market. I don't think that is going down. Mike Weber – Deutsche Bank: Okay, thanks. That makes sense. And I guess, finally, looking through, I guess, the supply phase in your deck, you mentioned the slippage estimates for 2009 and 2010 for both VLCCs and Suezmaxes, and it looks like VLCCs estimates remained flat and your Suezmaxes estimates were slipping actually come off in 2010. Is that because there are more Suezmaxes being built at Greenfield yards? How do you think that plays out?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
It is the Suezmaxes order book – one-third of the order book have been built at Greenfield yards. And of course, that's more than we have been on the VLCC side. So we saw quite a big slippage in 2009. We don’t think that many ships have been canceled at these new Greenfield yards. But we think the slippage for Suezmaxes will be less than the 37 – we are not sure, but this is just an estimate which we are using to show that if we have the slippage and with the single hull factor in book, the fleet growth will be much less than what is being perceived. Mike Weber – Deutsche Bank: Yes. I definitely agree. All right, guys. That's all I have. Thanks a lot.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Justine Fisher from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: Good morning.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Good morning. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: So I just have one question about what your motivations are for the change in the contract with Ship Finance. Because it seems as though, Inger, you guys have more than you need on the financing side for your CapEx. So why – what is the motivation for that change? Is it because you want to have that additional cash available for dividends or $112 million – what is that going to be used for from the Frontline perspective?
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Well, as we put in our press release, for six years when this structure has been in place. This cash deposits have been touched. And they were in a way set up to secure that you have the possibility to dig into the cash deposit if you have that tons in a way. But that has never occurred; and the possibility to dig into them because we have contract coverage on many of these vessels. And that we have not been able to use these deposits. So and in addition to that a very low interest environment, we think it's very inefficient to lock up this enormous amount of capital in this deposit structure. So we found that it was more efficient use to do this amendment to the contract. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: But so if there – I think you had mentioned that you actually did lose the money on the Suezmax contracts because the rates have been below what the charters are to Ship Finance. So where has the difference been made up for? Has it just come from Frontline's cash as opposed to cash storages? Because it seems as though now is the time where there's a risk that the rates actually are below what the charters are.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: Okay. And then just one more question on the single hulls. I'm trying to think through the economics for an owner of one of those older ships. I mean, I know that it's still a question as to whether or not they actually scrap them. Does it make sense for the owner of an older single hull – if it's already fully paid for, etcetera, and – would it make sense for them to keep the ship around in order to take advantage of market opportunities for storage or just for periods where demand is higher for tonnage as opposed to scrapping it? I mean, does it make sense for them to kind of lay it up for however many months of the year and then just offer it up when there may be demand from oil companies?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
The trouble is with crude tankers, you cannot lay them up. If you lay them off, you lose your approvals on the ships. So that's not a factor. Of course, as you mentioned, many of the owners of the single hull ships are owners that probably have no debt on the ship, so they will wait for maybe one spike in the market and hope they can make some money. But otherwise I agree with you, it's not profitable really to operate these old ships any longer. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: Great. Thanks so much. I appreciate it.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Jon Chappell from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Thank you. Good afternoon.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Good afternoon.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Good afternoon. Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: I just have a couple of questions on some of the fleet developments you've announced over the last couple of weeks. First on the Front Vista, can you disclose how much you're getting paid for the sale and how you are going to account for this over the next 10 years?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
I cannot disclose how much we are getting. But what we were mentioning, we have sold the ship to an unrelated third party who has obtained a 10-year charter to a state-owned oil company, and that's the reason why we're putting that time generate they have obtained this. Of course, then you probably have to deduct some commission on the rate, and then of course, the operating costs. And thereafter, you're coming down to a better [ph] element which will probably mix with what they are paying to us over the years. Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Okay. But I would think from like a time value of money, you're probably getting more over the 10 years than the $58 million that you bought the ship from?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
I would hope so if I'm going to keep my job, yes. Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Okay. Then also another question on this new Ship Finance structure, are you only lessening the charter hire in for that six month period? And then starting in the fourth quarter this year, it goes back to the original contracts?
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, it’s only for a six-month period. Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Okay. And how do we account for that? Should we just take that $74 million and spread it over the six-month period? Or should we change the way that we're accounting for the normal contracts with Ship Finance?
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
No. You shouldn't change it; it will be, as I said, proportionate over the six months. Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Okay. On the last two VLCCs, you mentioned before there's somewhat of an option – just the way that I read the press release and your tone on the call, it sounds like you're probably not going to exercise these ships. But when does the decision need to be made by? When is the drop dead date when you either have to walk away from it or declare the options?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Well, the delivery of those two ships is only in the second quarter of 2012. The construction has not started at any of these ships yet. So I would say end of this year, maybe, around that. Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Okay. And then finally, just two more quick ones on the market; that slippage versus cancellations, is there any way to tell how much of the slippage, especially in the Suezmax market, is pure cancellations? Or are those ships eventually going to hit the market in 2011 and 2012 or even 2013?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Okay. And then my last thing is on scrapping. You mentioned the 84 single hulls and a lot of people are expecting 84 VLCCs to be removed from the fleet this year. We've only seen four or five through the first two months of the year. Is it realistic? And is there the scrap yard capacity to really do 80 more VLCCs scrappings over 10 months?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Jon Chappell – JPMorgan: Okay. All right. Thank you, Inger and Jens.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions) We will now take our next question from David Neuhauser from Livermore Partners. Please go ahead. David Neuhauser – Livermore Partners: Hi, good morning ladies and gentlemen.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Good morning.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Good morning. David Neuhauser – Livermore Partners: I have a question regarding the current state of the world dynamics. We're seeing slowness out of Greece and issues from Greece and some pullback from credit out of China. Are you forecasting any issues going on with that current environment?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Of course, all of these things going on always have a bearing on people's sentiments. So I think I'm personally quite optimistic for the tanker market in 2010 [ph]. But of course, we are going to have another financial storm; it could maybe take some the chop out of that storm. But I think in terms of oil demand, Greece is not the biggest oil consumer in the world. But of course if you see a meltdown in that particular country, there could be some drop in the financial markets which normally is not positive for shipping. David Neuhauser – Livermore Partners: And then on the other end of the spectrum, if opportunities arise and given the current state of the market still, are you guys at all looking at seeing potential consolidation maybe coming forward here in the next 12 to 18 months?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
There could be. I think you're not the only one looking at the (inaudible) other companies. I think that it would probably – something will probably happen here during this year, some consolidation, mergers and acquisitions. So I think you could see something on that going forward. David Neuhauser – Livermore Partners: Are you guys actively searching? Is that something that's – that you guys are looking at potentially being opportunistic on?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
No, we are looking at everything. We are looking at buying ships, chartering in. I think it's always a continuous hunt for new ideas, new deals. So I think we are like everyone else out there. David Neuhauser – Livermore Partners: All right. That’s sounds good. That’s all I have. Thank you.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Justine Fisher from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: Hi, sorry, just one more question. So you guys are not planning on scrapping any of your single hull or double-sided vessels because you have those out on charters, right?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Not all of them out on charters – all our ships right now are actually employed, but as their time charter expires, which is around the phase-out date, if there is no buyers out there who wants to buy it from us for trading or conversion, then we will have to consider scrapping them ourselves, yes. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: Okay. But you haven't made the decision about scrapping them yet?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
We are, of course, thinking about it. And I think we are leaning more towards that decision, yes. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: And how many – do you classify the OBOs in your fleet as single – I mean, are those – would those be single hulls? I mean, would those be some of the type of tankers that would be scrapped if –?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
No, they are double hull but these ships have been trading in dry cargo for a long time and I don’t think they would ever come back into the oil trade again. The age of the ships will not make that possible, really. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: Okay. I mean, have you guys done – in your fleet deletion numbers, have you done any work on how many other owners – of the fleet that we know as single hull, double bottom, double-sided, how many of those ships are also on charters that may make the owner less incentivized to scrap them as well? This is just going back to Jon's question about the potential for all of those older ships to be deleted this year.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
That's why we estimate around 60 ships will disappear out of the 84. So there's some ships tied up like some of ours on the various storage projects. Justine Fisher – Goldman Sachs: Okay. Thank you.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Andy Rosenlund from ABG SC. Please go ahead. Your line is open Mr. Rosenlund. Andy Rosenlund – ABG SC: Okay, thank you. Sorry, I had missed my phone. You still have some restricted cash against Ship Finance or Ship Finance has some restricted cash against you. Is there a discussion on whether to release the remainder of the restricted cash or –? And why did you decide on $112 million? Why did that end up to be the figure?
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
There is no discussion on releasing more restricted cash. And the number that we in a way agreed upon was a kind of decision between Ship Finance, the banks for Ship Finance and Frontline, because obviously the banks have some saying here. They need some security for getting their bank loans to Ship Finance. And that’s a part of it. Andy Rosenlund – ABG SC: Okay. Thank you very much.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Yes, thanks.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Rob McKenzie from SBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Rob McKenzie – SBR Capital Markets: Yes, good afternoon.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Hello. Rob McKenzie – SBR Capital Markets: I wanted to come back to the acquisition or S&P question a little bit. Can you give us a feel for how you see the availability of vessels? And notwithstanding the market values you put out there right now, do you think you can get vessels at $95 million a V, and likewise for the Suezmax? Or do you think you might have to pay up to acquire vessels at this point?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
The last two ships of transactions done on two VLCCs resales was $96.5 million. I think there's quite – many people out there probably willing to buy ships at the same level. So I think actually you could see prices going closer to $100 million. I don’t see prices going down right now. And the same thing for Suezmaxes – there seems to be quite a few buyers out there for modern ships. So maybe you have to pay around $70 million for Suezmaxes on the water right now. Rob McKenzie – SBR Capital Markets: How would you characterize the volume of offers you see for Vs and Suezs at this point in time? Is it pretty sparse right now?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Pretty sparse – not many. There's not many ships available. Rob McKenzie – SBR Capital Markets: And how does that outlook look? I mean, clearly – probably most of the available ships might come out of shipyards from folks that cannot afford to take delivery. How do you guys view that availability of ships from that supply chain?
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
So far we haven’t seen any ships like you have seen on the container side, where owners have abandoned orders on the shipyards themselves. So we haven't seen that on the VLCCs yet. And as I mentioned before, I think when you come into end part of 2009 there’s where you'll see the really expensive ships being ordered coming out. So I think that’s probably more likely you'll see this scenario. Rob McKenzie – SBR Capital Markets: Okay. Thank you very much.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
Thank you.
Inger Klemp
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
As there are no further questions, I would like to turn the call back over to your host for any additional or closing remarks.
Jens Martin Jensen
Management
I would just like to say thank you for everybody for dialing in and listening to us, and I would like to say thank you for everybody in Frontline for keeping up the spirit in 2009. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
That will conclude today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.