Paul Pittman
Analyst · Baird. Please go ahead
Thank you, Luca. Today I want address five separate topics, two of which are general about the farm economy and land value trends in general and three of which are specific to our company. So starting with number one, land value trends. What we’re basically beginning to see is that the press reports in the popular and the agriculture press are finally starting to kind of catch up with the reality of what’s going on in the market place. As I’ve said many times before, farmland values have declined slightly in the Corn Belt and have been stable to increasing in most other regions of the country. This is despite the fact that the popular press has been a steady drumbeat of negativity about agriculture and land values. If you look back at the things that we’ve said in these conference calls and in our other communications now for several years, we have taken a position that a decline in commodity price would lead to stability or slight declines in the Corn Belt and that most of the rest of the country will be stable to increasing, because there are fundamentally different factors in those regions driving land values besides commodity price. We’ve also if you recall talked many times about how commodity price doesn’t drive land value directly, but it does effect farmer income, which can gradually show up in rents and ultimately in land values. But the effect here has been frankly very muted and I’m happy as I said that the press is starting to report it. So for example, on April 9 there was an article on agweb.com quoting the Realtors Land Institute of Iowa, which basically says that after four years of declines in farmland value in Iowa the last 12 months have shown a five 5% increase in Iowa farmland values. On April 11 again in agweb.com, quoting the Rural Appraiser and Farm Manager Society of Illinois, it’s basically saying and concluding that high quality land values of Illinois have been essentially flat in the prior 12 months. On May 2, we reported that total farmland return for the year ending March 31, 2018 was 7.07%. That is survey of pension owned farmland across the country, a pretty broad survey, again indicative of what we are seeing is in fact that farmland is starting to move back up in value. We as a company are clearly of that opinion. As I’m sure you observed in our press release, we acquired quite a bit of stock during the fourth quarter and the company. I of course personally continue to acquire stock. Our stock continues to be seriously undervalued compared to the asset values that are out there. Now everyone should keep this in fundamental context though, that you can’t look at any single report or single point of view of farmland, whether these positive ones I quote or the negative ones you need that you happen to read, you have to look at that data of – that set of information about farmland values as a sort of broad cloud and incorporate what all of those facts real mean from the market. We of course view the USDA data as the most comprehensive. Unfortunately that data only comes out once a year in August and so between each August you are left without a nation-wide sort of point of view and you have to piece together what your perspective is of actual land value trends based on snippets of information about different locations. But generally speaking, our view is that we’ve seen the bottom we put in, in land values and the Corn Belt, starting to see it come back up, starting to see it be reflected in the popular press and that is clearly a positive trend for the underlying asset values. The second point I want to address is grain prices versus farmland stock and then a brief side about the potential trade war and our point of view regarding that; so starting with the grain prices issue. If you looked in the last approximately four months, of what has happened to Farmland Partners stock, what’s going on in the primary commodities, there was a real and substantial disconnect. As I’ve said many times, we do not believe commodity price drives farmland values in the direct sense. But the flipside is, it’s shocking to think that grain prices are going up and our stock is going down. So measuring since December, 18, 2017 FPI stock has fallen 18.1%. Measuring from the same day, corn has gone up 10.4%, soybeans have gone up 4.2% and wheat has gone up 14.3%. This fundamentally does not make any sense. We have traded down with the commodities, the stock was $9.33 on December 18, that is already an incredibly depressed level compared to our underlying asset values, and it has only fallen further while grain prices has started to recover. The most powerful and important takeaway about grain price recovery is that in many regions of the country today you can sell corn and soybeans at clearly profitable levels and at levels not seen in terms of cash price paid to farmers in several years. Typical of a commodity industry, the fundamental cure for the low prices is low prices. We’ve continued to build national and worldwide demand during the low price environment in the last few years and now you are seeing the markets recover. Obvious question is, does it last? Does it continue? But fundamentally what drives long term price trends in the Ag commodities is what’s called carry out, meaning the amount of crop left over at the end of one season to rollover into next season. That’s fundamentally going on and driving commercial buyers as opposed to speculators, is that carry out projections in 2019, 2020 and beyond where most of the major commodities nationally and internationally are trending downward. Therefore what’s happening is we’ve worked our way through in excess supply situation and gradually seeing the effects of demand drive prices back up. Again, not a direct driver of farmland, but it is a driver of farmer profitability, which over time is obviously beneficial to our business. It is important from our perspective that this turnaround is finally coming. Our view about our sort of tenant healthy generally is that we have each year since about 2014 gradually seen a few more tenants. Today we have roughly 110 separate tenants and each year we’ve seen a few more tenants in a little bit more financial difficulty. So if in 2015 I had one lease that where a tenant was in some sort of challenged financial circumstance, by 2016 that was two guys and 2017 would have been three guys and this year its four or five. Clearly these farmers have burnt through their working capital gradually during the last few years, but you haven’t and you’ve seen it reflected to some degree in farmer incomes and ultimately our release rates that you haven’t really seen it show up in land values. That is in fact the way it’s supposed to work. The land value should stay stable through most downturns. Hopefully we are climbing out from an Ag productivity perspective, and you are going to see performance at the farmer income level start to improve. Interest rates and their effect on us and their effect on farmers are obviously going the other way, but the interest rate moves certainly don’t explain that 18% decline in our stock. We are today roughly 12% of our capital structure overall is adjustable rate debt, we have not – just the math behind the modest moves and our interest rates on 12% of our cap structure does not justify the significant declines we are seeing in the stock compared to what’s going on in terms of commodity prices and the rest. Of course the entire REIT sector has been pulled down with fear of interest rate moves and we have to some degree gone down in sympathy. But remember, farmland is fundamentally an inflation hedge. In my opinion, probably the best inflation hedge there is, even better than gold and our view is that modest interest rate increases, as long as they are being driven by expansion in the economy and ultimately inflation, the inflation benefits, the inflation hedge benefits of farmland will outweigh the interest rate increases on terms of total return. Now turning to the issue of the trade war and the potential of a trade war. This is clearly not a good thing for agriculture. Generally in the United States, if you get a trade war started, its important though to think deeply about what really happens in a trade war and to be frank I haven’t in my professional career went through one of these before. The last time we had a significant trade war for agriculture commodities was in Jimmy Carter days, when I was frankly in high school. The effect of a trade war in our view is not going to be an instant and significant decline in demand for our primary commodity products. The reason for that of course is that the world is largely consuming all the production that is out there. So if the Chinese were buying our soybeans, you will shift the trade routes around the world in a way where our soybeans fundamentally get sold to somebody else. Just in the recent weeks we’ve started exporting soybeans from the United States to Brazil. That seldom happens, but what’s happening is the Brazilians are selling more beans to China, so we are having to backfill the Brazilian internal demand for their own crushing facilities to make soybean meal and soy oil. This sort of shifts around the country, around the world is likely to be the near term impact of a trade war if it in fact happens. It will of course have an immediate negative physiological effect, but it’s not really an instant problem. That being said, a trade war is not good for U.S. agriculture. Again going back to the Jimmy Carter and Richard Nixon era, the trade wars that we had at that point in time and the embargos we had to Japan and Russia in that era actually led to the creation of Brazil as a long term competitor for U.S. agriculture. Brazil prior to the time we embargoed products into Japan had very, very little soybean production and grain production and now 40 years, 50 years later they are a substantial and major competitor. This trade war will have an impact of causing the Chinese to invest substantially more in the infrastructure in South America that over the course of five or maybe even 10 years will make Brazil in particular a better supplier of the worldwide markets. That’s certainly not good for American agriculture, but the immediate and near term impact of the trade war is frankly over overblown, because as I said, the world needs the crops, but the long term effects of the trade war are certainly not good for farmer profitability and commodity prices in the United States. Turning to the third point I want to make this morning, which is scale and balance in our portfolio. We have worked every hard in the last couple of years to create a portfolio that really reflects that worldwide global food demand growth and the fundamental fact of land scarcity in the United States and round the world. So at 12/31/216 our portfolio was largely, a commercial real crop portfolio based entirely in the Midwest, the Delta, the Plains and the Southeast. We had a few blueberry crops at that point in time grown in Michigan, a few vegetable crops grown in other locations, but broadly speaking virtually 100% of our assets and our revenues were coming from the primary commercial world crops, corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, and cotton and the like. Today around 3/31/2018 we are now about 70% to 30% balance of asset value, between primary real crops and the specialty crops and that’s on asset value. On revenues we are about 62% from real crop and 38% from specialty and permanent crops; that’s based of course on 2018 estimated revenues. That is a reasonability significant shift. That improved diversification of assets and income is really fitting into our portfolio a situation where no negative event in any given state or any given crop really hurts our fundamental performance very much. We think this is incredibility important and probably not fully recognized in the marketplace. Again, our goal is to tie our investors to global food demand on a global basis and the fundamental fact that high quality land scarcity in the best Ag performing nation in the world and which is why we largely invest, entirely invest here in the U.S. The fourth point in want to point to is valuation of our stock on an NAV basis, looking at the underlying value of the assets. As I have always said, we think that our stock is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $12 a share, with a range of about 11.50 to 12.50 and that is based largely on what we paid for these assets and adjusting through time for modest declines on the assets we bought in the Midwest, in the high plains, flat in the southeast and the delta to slightly increasing and then of course the California assets gradually increasing as well. So we think if we went to liquidate this portfolio, you would achieve something line $12 a share. Now we are not going to liquidate the portfolio anytime soon. I haven’t given up by any means as a public company. But we are clearly frustrated by the disconnect between stock price and underlying private market asset values. For those of you who have spent some time looking at our supplemental, we provide a great deal of information that would allow an analyst or anyone else to calculate the value of our stock on a cap rate basis and you can do it based on gross cap rates or whatever your preferred methodology is. If you want to do it on an NOI basis, you have to use a slightly lower cap rate of course because properties trade on lower cap rate on NOI than they do on a gross basis. But that being said, if you got to page 13 of our supplemental and you work your way through the facts on that page and I encourage you all to do this, and you use the cap rates we provided based on the regional, based on our regional cap rate variations that we’ve seen in the nation, you end up using that methodology with a stock price of $14.17. Now I just said I think the stock is worth 12. As you all know, valuation is an art not a science. It’s a matter of balancing a variety of methods of looking at the value of a given asset. The only way to know what anything is worth is to actually sell it, but the bottom line here is that as we have significantly increased the revenue potential of the company and we’re building that on an LTM basis, you have seen a significant enhanced valuation on a cap rate basis of what the stock should be trading at. So I do encourage you to look at those numbers. You can run sensitivities. We sort of laid everything out there for everyone, but the bottom line is that you can quibble about what the exact value of the stock should be. Whatever that analysis leads you to, it’s going to lead you to a number substantially higher than the recent trading history of the company. And the final and fifth point that I want to make is to talk just a little bit about cost control in the light of the scale increases that we’ve achieved in the company. We own $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion farmland assets around the country today. We have seen a very large increase in our revenues and a holding of our cost structure essentially flat. That’s why you see in the quarterly numbers a 57% year-over-year increase in revenues, a 581% increase in operating income and a 90% increase in EBITDA. This is the company that has run incredibly efficiently from the standpoint of overheads and personnel costs. We of course do everything we can to limit property operating expenses, although as many of you know that’s largely property taxes which is out of our control, but we will continue to be disciplined in that cost control effort and we would expect to continue to see those efforts create greater and greater value on cash flow out of our properties. With that, I am going to pause. You’ll have a chance later for questions and turn it back over to Luca.