Earnings Labs

Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 27, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining today's call. With me today are George Colony, Forrester's Chairman of the Board and CEO; and Mike Doyle, Forrester's Chief Financial Officer. George will open the call. Mike Doyle will then follow to discuss our operations and financial review. We will then open the call to question and answer. A replay of this call will be available until May 27, 2016, and can be accessed by dialing 1 (888) 843-7419; or internationally, 1 (630) 651-3042. Please reference the passcode 6414233#. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as expects, believes, anticipates, intends, plans, estimates or similar expressions, are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current plans and expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause future activities and results of operations to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Some of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I will now turn the call over to George Colony.

George Colony

Management

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining the call. I'm going to say a few words about the company's performance in the quarter and outline how our year has kicked off. I'll then hand the call off to Mike Doyle, the company's CFO, who will give a financial review of Q1. And following Mike's remarks, we will then take questions. The company followed up a strong fourth quarter with continued good performance in Q1. We are exceeding our internal plans, and I'm happy to report that we achieved EPS and revenue guidance for the quarter. 5 of our 6 sales teams hit plan, with 4 of those teams beating their targets. We performed well internationally, with Asia and Europe producing solid results. The company started the year with good momentum, which we will look to sustain through the balance of 2016. I wanted to say a few words about how we are executing on our strategy. Now as you all know, Forrester helps companies succeed in the age of the customer, working to ensure that our clients can win, serve and retain increasingly empowered customers. Our analyst consultants and data specialists are increasingly focused on how companies should operate to be customer-obsessed. We are moving out of theory into identifying the best structure, organization, culture and technology for the new age. We are researching the companies that achieve high scores on Forrester's Customer Experience Index to diagnose exactly what they are doing to delight customers. Building customer obsession requires a new generation of operating imperatives, and we are working with our clients to move them forward on this voyage. I want to turn to products for a few moments. Several of our products that were struggling in 2015 are moving back on track. Under the leadership of John Sellazzo, who joined…

Michael Doyle

Management

Thank you, George. For the benefit of those on the call, Mike Morhardt, our Chief Sales Officer, who normally joins us for these calls, isn't going to be here today. He is actually at the marketing leadership forum that George mentioned earlier with clients, so he's not going to participate. I'll now begin my review of Forrester's financial performance for the first quarter of 2016, including a look at our financial results, the balance sheet at March 31, our first quarter metrics and the outlook for the second quarter and full year 2016. Please note that the income statement numbers and reporting are pro forma and exclude the following item: stock-based compensation expense; amortization of intangibles; reorganization costs; and net gains and losses from investments. Also, for 2016, we continue to utilize an effective tax rate of 40% for pro forma purposes. For the first quarter of 2016, Forrester met revenue and pro forma operating margin and EPS guidance. We followed a strong Q4 with solid execution and strong bookings performance across most product and client segments in the first quarter of this year. We continue to exceed expectation in Forrester Events and Forrester Connect, which had been challenges for the first 3 quarters of 2015. We experienced growth in most geographies with our European business exceeding expectations. We met our margin and EPS guidance for the quarter as we continue to maintain tight control on our expenses, while continuing to invest in making our products more digital and improving the client experience. Now let me turn to a more detailed review of our first quarter results. Forrester's first quarter revenue increased by 3% to $77.4 million from $75.2 million in the first quarter of 2015. On a constant currency basis, revenue grew at 4%. First quarter research services revenue…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Timothy McHugh from William Blair.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

George, just wanted to follow-up. The Leadership Boards at Forrester Connect. I guess, is it simply rightsizing it and being more focused than that you feel is setting that in the right trajectory? Or I guess, what -- it sounds like it's getting a little better, I guess, so just, I guess, more color on if you feel like you've really kind of -- what you've changed there in the strategy that's working behind it?

Michael Doyle

Management

Sure. I would -- Tim, it's Mike. I would say that -- a couple of things. I think the rightsizing was important. I think the fundamental value proposition for us is a combination of pure networking and the ability for people to get information and access it. And some councils became too large or where the mix wasn't appropriate. We really needed to right size to get the right experience. And then, when we got into our product base organization under Cliff Condon, his view was we had drifted from an execution standpoint. The counsels that worked well followed the core guiding principles that we had established a long time ago as it relates to Leadership Boards and the councils that struggled didn't, so it was very much about execution and I think getting the right leader in place and putting a discipline around that has had a very immediate benefit for us. So now it's a matter of -- we've got that in place, it's now getting back to sort of the basics of selling the boards and building that business back. So very happy with the last couple of quarters.

George Colony

Management

Just to amplify -- this is Tim. The boards are running at separate businesses. So you had Board A and Board B that were yielding very high value. Our sales force understood them and trusted them, but then you had Boards D, E and F that were running very different -- very differently and the sales force couldn't quite understand them, so what's happened in the last 2 years and really with Colleen taking the head position, is that we're standard -- there's a standard operating model for all the boards that are running in the same way now. And that's enabling our sales force to trust them, to understand them and also the value that's being yielded is much more standardized. There's also one other -- you want to take that issue? Okay.

Michael Doyle

Management

Okay. Yes. We did make some changes to our product too, Tim. We had products that had different upgrades and attachments to them that we cleaned up. I mean, I think we're getting back to a very good disciplined offering that is a value proposition that our clients understand and to George's point, our sales organization understands. When you have those 2 dynamics working for you, we have what we need in place now to really get this thing moving.

George Colony

Management

There was a funky upgrade pricing model that we had for certain clients and we've eliminated that over the last 1.5 year that's really helped. That helped you?

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Yes, that's helpful context. And then let me just ask, on the sales kind of comments that you made, the sales force. I get the logic on given kind of some of the changes you were making, why you slowed the headcount growth. But to the extent you're trying to drive, I guess, agreement value growth better than even the mid-single digits here, how much of an issue are -- or what's the risk late this year we're going to be hearing that that's just -- we need time now to rebuild the sales force growth rate to drive that forward here, I guess? There's just a gap here now that we're going to have to absorb.

Michael Doyle

Management

Yes -- no, it's a great question. And if Mike were here, and he's going to lecture me when he gets back, that I should have inserted this into my comments. Essentially, we're going to be -- as the year progresses, we'll begin ramping up hiring in a more aggressive way so that, in fact, we are rolling into next year with the ability to deliver double-digit bookings growth. So we're looking at that, plus productivity. The realignment and the fine-tuning that we're doing with our customers and aligning sales to that, is very much about our productivity discussion to it, Mike, so we see getting to double-digit next year is very much a product of aligning correctly this year so that we can get productivity out of the existing sales reps as well as new headcount hires and getting them ramped and ready to go before the end of the year. So that's still in the plan and I should have probably talked about that in my initial comments, Tim.

George Colony

Management

So this is very conscious, Tim. This is the plan that we're running for the year. It's not like we're -- we're not falling into this. We are -- we're executing to this plan.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Bill Sutherland from Emerging Growth Equities.

William Sutherland

Analyst

Mike, George, the follow-up on Tim's question. So not to cut it too fine, but -- so the move to significantly higher bookings growth is probably not in the cards for your year-end sales push?

Michael Doyle

Management

Actually, I would say that -- no it is, it actually is, Bill. I think the expectation is that we're going to have a steady build up. That there's not just some hockey stick the game plan for us is that bookings build over the course of the year and that by year end, we need to have momentum that is carrying in that's already at or very close to a double-digit number. So that's how we're building out our plan. That's the intent for this year. It should ramp ideally in a pretty consistent manner, Bill.

George Colony

Management

Yes, not to be too mysterious here on this question, we are doing work internally. We hadn't talked about it today on the call, but we're doing work internally to significantly drive sales productivity. So and we would like to talk about that on the Q2 and Q3 calls, but we're making moves internally to make that happen. So this is all according to our plan.

William Sutherland

Analyst

So some of this attrition -- I mean how much of it was voluntary?

Michael Doyle

Management

I would say that, as Mike looked at it, decent amount of voluntary, I would say that we always get attrition in Q1. I mean, it just -- people get their big commission checks from year-end and people depart. And with all of that, we had some that we will label regrettable. We'd like to have them back. We're under a lot of competitive pressure, particularly in the West Coast where we're seeing some big vendors who we do business with and will go unnamed who are coming after our people. So we're dealing with that issue, and it's just the, what I would call the normal level that occurs in Q1 and we see it every year for the last couple of years because of the way the compensation system has changed. They make our sales reps get a bigger commission after they clear 85% of the number for the year and that typically occurs in the fourth quarter, and then people are making a decision, they typically will leave in Q1. So some of it was expected. So some of it was expected, some was frustrating and a little unexpected. And that hurts. You don't want to lose anybody who's performing and is fully ramped, but you expect a certain amount, probably a little bit above what we had hoped for. That said, January and February were high, March settled back down to normal rates and April's at a normal rate. So I feel like we saw our spike and now we're trying to get back into a normal rhythm here.

William Sutherland

Analyst

Yes, I was just thinking towards George's point about alignment increasing product -- or just increasing productivity, part of that might have been a little bit of thinning of the herd, but...

Michael Doyle

Management

The other thing that we get was aligned, but there's 2 things that are going on and we'll get into more detail probably in the second quarter call, but it's a combination of alignment, both with clients and then internally as we align our support resources around the selling organization, so they're spending less time servicing and more time selling. And Mike will cover the details probably in the second quarter call, but he's got some interesting work that's going on that is all good for us and makes a lot of sense, and I think it's going to help us a lot.

George Colony

Management

Yes, so the glimmer of that was what I talked about today, Mike talked a little bit about it as well, the -- this ideal client profile work that we're doing, so we ensure our sales force is focused on the right clients who truly are challenged by the Age of the Customer. So -- instead of going to companies, which -- where this is less of an issue.

William Sutherland

Analyst

Right. Just one question on the full-year guidance. The -- so the midpoint growth looks pretty mid-single-digit and on that, it appears, in terms of pro forma operating margin, that you're not really looking for any leverage this year. And so it's just a matter of a level of investment right now on top of fairly modest growth rate that that's the deal this year?

Michael Doyle

Management

It is, Bill. We made -- we went very lean in areas that aren't directly revenue-generating as well as streamlining a bit in the product -- project consulting organization, with the intent to fund both the investments that George has referenced, to fund investments and additional sales headcount. So the combination of those things drive expenses up, but don't necessarily, because they come in the latter part of the year, generate revenue for us. So yes, that's pretty much the formula. But again, the intent is that we are moving very much towards double-digit by the end of the year in terms of bookings activity.

William Sutherland

Analyst

Okay. And then last for me is just on Europe. You said it's a -- it was better than expectation. Can you just give us a little color on that?

George Colony

Management

I don't think it's necessarily macroeconomics. I think it's really about our execution. Jon McNerney has been there a year now running sales in Europe and it took him a while to get his feet underneath him, and he's doing a very good job there. So I'd say, this is primarily about execution, primarily about talent acquisition we made during the last 6 months. And very happy to see Europe back us -- they actually led is in Q1...

William Sutherland

Analyst

So that was my question, too, was the growth in line or better?

Michael Doyle

Management

Growth was better than what we had anticipated. So that for us was good. I mean, when you look at it, and we look at it 2 ways, sort of in region and then also where the activity is. And if you look at actual activity, European activity, which parses out large global vendors and looks at where people are buying and using, Europe led the way to George's point, in terms of growth, so we -- we're happy. And I'm with George, I think this has been an execution story and I think Jon has been working his plan in Europe for a year now and it's finally, I think, taking hold. So it's encouraging.

George Colony

Management

A little bit of worry here about Britain getting out of the EU. It's hard for us to really calculate. Our business is not a large business in Europe, but this will be -- we believe, will be bad for Britain. Britain -- actually, we said this in our research and it would be worrisome for -- I think, for continental.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Vincent Colicchio from Barrington Research.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

Yes, I'm curious, George or Mike, the BT research business, how did that -- did that improve in the quarter?

Michael Doyle

Management

BT research, we -- the overall research numbers were good. What we see, still, is better performance in vendor versus user. So we're still working that. A lot of our focus now is as we've modified and added some new products, they get very much that end-user. The -- we piloted and are now moving more aggressively on the AoC research seat that we talked about. So that's beginning to get traction. I think more to come there, so it was good, not great. And it's still a work-in-progress.

George Colony

Management

What's happening there is the AoC seat events. So that gives exposure to the CIO and CIO's team to not only the technology management issues, but also the issues that are in the marketing space, which they have to be able to incorporate into their work, just because as you know, business technologies is for the customer, not for internal purposes. So AoC seat is helping here.

Michael Doyle

Management

I think that's the piece that the sales force is going to be leveraging as they go forward. I mean, it's still our biggest role and still gets the greatest focus and I think everybody's transitioning, to George's point, at different rates. And I think it's -- for us, it's about trying to match up what their needs are and give them the right products and it's still a work in progress. It was, like I would say, it's good, but not great, yet.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

And I realize that you're working on improving sales force productivity. I'm just curious, I know in recent quarters you've talked about the sales cycles are very long on your larger agents and customer deals. Has there been any change in that sales cycle sequentially, in the quarter?

Michael Doyle

Management

Not yet. I think a lot of the work that Mike is doing is intended to address that. So again, to George's point, it's really looking at each of our client and figuring out, where do they fit? We've done a nice job, I think, trying to segment what products and services each one is going to need and then matching that with an appropriate service model. And I think that's what's going to unleash a lot of productivity improvement. So we're not seeing it yet. But when -- as we move forward on a lot of this work, I think it's going to start accelerating in a meaningful way because we'll have a better match of our organization with what client needs are. And that's really the sort of the nub of what we're trying to -- where we're trying to go here.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

And did you buy back any stock in the quarter? And what are your thoughts on priorities for your cash going forward?

Michael Doyle

Management

We did not buyback any stock during the course of the quarter, Vince. And we -- but essentially, every quarter we have the discussion with the Board is what's the best use of the cash? And the sequence of events always starts with internal investment, what are the opportunities that we have inside the company to grow organically? And then looking at M&A activity as ways to enhance value. And then once we get beyond those strip points, then, obviously, repurchase dividends. So I think the board -- we've gone through process and we've had discussions with them as recently as yesterday, so I won't share what direction where we want to go yet, but it's the same discussion and I would say they're looking for -- and we had a healthy discussion around what's the best way for us to enhance value going forward?

Operator

Operator

And our final question comes from Allen Klee from Sidoti & Company.

Allen Klee

Analyst

Could you give me a little more color on the -- what you see yourselves doing in the consulting segment, with the new leader? And how you see that potential either growing or rightsizing?

George Colony

Management

Yes, consulting is going to stay, will not grow faster than the business in total. As you know, we're looking to achieve a 70-30 split between syndicated and non-syndicated, so this is why we really liked Mack as a candidate here because he -- I don't know if you know IHS at all, but IHS runs at 90% syndicated, 10% non-syndicated, and he was able to really well navigate -- navigate that well at IHS to keep that in balance. So we're not hiring Mack to grow consulting faster than the total business. We're hiring Mack because -- Mack because we think he'll be able to really grow consulting alongside syndicated and then find synergy between those 2 businesses.

Michael Doyle

Management

And I think, Allen, that...

George Colony

Management

And he knows that coming in.

Michael Doyle

Management

And some perspective in the short term, I think that we're going to have movement. It's going to bounce around and maybe create some headaches for us in some quarters and give us some uplift as Mack comes in and tries to determine where he wants to place his bets to. The end game is ultimately that we're going to grow this business. I think that we -- to give you some history, we got into this separate project, consulting organization towards the end of '13 and built it out in '14. And we've been working through building out and sort of trying to find our footing and establish this is a very real part of our business. And I think we've streamlined and rightsized to a point and then we sort of hit the pause button until Mack walks in the door and he's going to then determine, where does he want to go? We think there's a real market out there. It absolutely has had some very positive desired effect on our analyst community that we've created more time for them to write, research and speak at events and be with clients, while they continue to deliver some pretty fantastic analyst advisory numbers. So it's had a very positive effect on that part of our revenue stream. It's just we're finding footing, and I think Mack will take us to the next level. But in the near term, Allen, and we'll try and give more color in each of the calls, it's going to give us noise. It's a little bit why our guidance is a little cautious for Q2 for example because Mack's just going to be walking in the door and so I think, we're going to have to wait and see where he goes. But the end game is, to George's point, that it would grow, probably not at the same rate as our syndicated research, but it's going to grow at healthy numbers.

Allen Klee

Analyst

Okay. And last question, just on -- you talked about digital as being one of the themes and digital reprints. How -- is there a way to think about the opportunity there?

George Colony

Management

Yes, that's good [indiscernible], but previously reprints were PDFs that we send out to vendors, who would then offer them up on their own website. And it was difficult to control. The value was -- the value was good, but the value -- it was on an interactive experience for either the vendor or the customer of the vendor. With digital reprints, and now that's hosted on our site, we're able to see all the entire customer flow much more interactive experience for the vendor who bought the reprints. Much better able to flow those leads back to the vendors, much easier to track, much easier to promote. So again, I talk about an uplift of I think it was 34% in reprints from Q-to-Q, from year-to-year and a lot of it is being driven by the digital nature of the reprints. So it's been a good boost for us.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call to Mike Doyle for closing remarks.

Michael Doyle

Management

Okay. Thanks very much, everyone, for joining the call. We do -- George and I need to speed being out on the road and trying to see investors, and we'll be reaching out appropriately to book dates. But thanks, again, and we look forward with talking with you soon.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.