Earnings Labs

Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 10, 2016

$6.18

+2.83%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+5.06%

1 Week

+4.63%

1 Month

+5.03%

vs S&P

-4.27%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining today’s call. With me today are George Colony, Forrester’s Chairman of the Board and CEO; Michael Morhardt, Forrester’s Chief Sales Officer; and Michael Doyle, Forrester’s Chief Financial Officer. George will open the call. Michael Morhardt will follow George to discuss sales. Michael Doyle will then follow Michael Morhardt to discuss our financials. We’ll then open the call to Q&A. A replay of this call will be available until March 11, 2016 and can be accessed by dialing 1-888-843-7419, or internationally 1-630-652-3042. Please reference the pass code 9533828#. Before we begin, I’d like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as expects, believes, anticipates, intend, plans, estimates, or similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements. Those statements are based on the company’s current plans and expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause future activities and results of operations to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Some of these important factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I’ll now hand the call over to George Colony.

George Colony

Management

Good afternoon and thanks for joining Forrester’s Q4 and full year 2015 conference call. I will comment on the Company’s Q4 performance full-year 2015 and look ahead to 2016. Mike Morhardt, our Chief Sales officer, will then give a briefing on his organization followed by Mike Doyle, Forrester’s CFO, who will give a financial review of the year and layout 2016 guidance. And following our remarks, we will take questions. As of year-end, the Company completed the second year in its new strategy, working with business and technology leaders to build customer-obsessed strategies that drive growth. We engaged with large corporations on three levels. Number one, helping them stay aligned with their increasingly powerful customers; two, advising marketing and strategy executives on how to win those customers; and three, guiding technology management executives as they construct their business technology agendas. In very simple terms, we are retained by our clients to ensure that they are positioned to win in the age of the customer. For our clients, the stakes are high. The dynamism of customers poses an existential threat to large corporations, eroding market share, posing new competitive dynamics, destroying brands, and disrupting product development. Whether you sell tires, banking services, plane tickets or energy, your customers will change the rules of your business over the next 10 to 20 years and we could see early examples of this. Throughout the 35 years of my business career, one company has been the paragon of unglamorous but steady growth, and that’s been Walmart. And a month ago, the company announced that it was closing 250 stores. Now, why is that happening? Customers are inexorably shifting away from retail toward a blended retail online approach, and Walmart is not evolving quickly enough to stay on pace. I gave a speech to 200…

Michael Morhardt

Management

Thanks, George. Sales ended the year with solid momentum going into 2016. Our age of the customer market strategy continues to resonate with our clients and the overall opportunity continues to grow. We saw a strong over plan Q4 performance from our North American new business, Asia-Pac, premier global account, international partners and East teams. We also saw improved performance in our Western European teams, although not at plan levels for the quarter. For the quarter and the year, we saw all seven teams achieve year-over-year growth, currency adjusted. As I’ve outlined in the last couple of calls, the age of the customer opportunity is significant and our offer is strongly differentiated. Our clients are struggling to keep up with their rapidly changing buyers and want to work with Forrester in a broader, more comprehensive way. Some of the adjustments we made to capitalize on this opportunity include refining and optimizing our buying process. Through training, technology enhancement and new processes, we have made it easier for clients to buy from us and easier for salespeople to sell. Although we are just starting on this work, we saw some immediate dividends. In Q4, we saw a significant two point improvement in pipeline conversion rates, reduced times for deals to book once they are received and overall improved deal flow across the quarter. George mentioned our ongoing effort to identify through market segmentation, our ideal client profile. Through buying behavior analysis, we have identified current clients and prospects that are more likely to engage with Forrester across our entire product portfolio. Segmenting our clients and prospects based on buying behaviors will lead to improved customer experience, continued improvement in client retention, and improved enrichment rates. George also mentioned, we saw an acceleration in the adoption of the age of the customer…

Michael Doyle

Management

Thanks Mike. I’ll now begin my review of Forrester’s financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2015, including a look at our financial results, the balance sheet at December 31, our fourth quarter metrics and the outlook for the first quarter and full-year 2016. Please note that the income statement numbers I’m reporting are pro forma and exclude the following items: stock-based compensation expense, amortization of intangibles, reorganization costs and net losses from investments. Also for 2015, we continue to utilize an effective tax rate of 38% for pro forma purposes. The actual effective tax rate for the full year 2015 was 37.9%. For the fourth quarter of 2015, Forrester’s revenue net guidance and pro forma operating margin and EPS exceeded guidance. Our revenue performance was near the upper end of our range despite continuing headwind due to ongoing volatility in the global currency market. As Mike mentioned, our sales bookings performance was up year-over-year across all his sales regions on a constant currency basis. In addition, five of our seven products achieved their targeted bookings plan for the quarter and the two that missed targeted levels still grew at double-digit rates. We continue to manage operating expense in a rigorous manner, which helped drive EPS above guidance levels. For the full year of 2015, we achieve the upper end of the revenue guidance we set back in July and exceeded our EPS guidance. In addition, our EPS is at the upper end of the original guidance we set in February, despite lower revenues. Now let me turn to a more detailed review of our fourth quarter results. Forrester’s fourth quarter revenue of $81 million was essentially flat compared to $80.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, and grew at 3% on a constant currency basis. Forrester fourth quarter…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Timothy McHugh from William Blair. Timothy, please go ahead.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Thanks. You alluded to strong bookings, I guess, even better than kind of the agreement value share. So, I guess can you just tell us kind of the growth rate booking [indiscernible] what the full year number looks like based on that?

George Colony

Management

Tim, you broke up a bit there. Is it possible you repeat the question?

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

You alluded to strong bookings [indiscernible]

George Colony

Management

Tim, you have completely cut out.

Michael Morhardt

Management

I think the question is about bookings in Q4.

Michael Morhardt

Management

Right. And I think – so I will just give some color commentary on that. I mean, we don’t release bookings, but one of the reasons why I tried to break AV down a little bit was to give you some sense as to where – how we might think about it. And I think that the full – what I would call fully adjusted AV, which reflects FX and the January 1 deals, is probably a closer approximation of where our actual bookings came out. I am not sure if there was more to the question, Tim, because, again, you fell off a little bit at the tail end.

George Colony

Management

Just give a little color here, and maybe, Mike, you could give some color as well – Mike Morhardt. But it just strengthened and through November and December just very – two very strong months. And so, it was not a mad rush at the end of the year. It was just a very good, steady stream of business right through the fourth quarter.

Mike Morhardt

Analyst

Yes, which is – Q4 is our biggest quarter, a lot to transact on from a renewal perspective. But we were very pleased with not only renewal rates, the enrichment rates, the conversion rates from a pipeline perspective, the new business numbers across the board. And, as I mentioned in my comments, the ability for us to execute and get all the deals through was one of our better quarters

George Colony

Management

And some of the technology helped there, too, Apttus with the sales force.

Mike Morhardt

Analyst

Absolutely, yes.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. That was my question. And then, I guess, from a kind of global or a macro perspective, can you just – given everything happening in the stock market and the things people are worried about, what are you seeing from energy customers? What are you seeing in Asia, I guess? European banks [indiscernible] worried about right now. Is there any sign in your kind of proposal activity or core booking kind of indicators of anything related to that environment?

Michael Doyle

Management

Sure. Tim, it’s Mike. Yes, we – so from an oil and gas perspective, we definitely saw some softness there, both in Canada and in North America and some of our international markets. Energy companies in general and/or if you look at utility companies, actually we did very well on the utility front, but the oil and gas industry definitely affected us. From an Asia-Pac perspective, we did very well in Asia-Pac, in fact extremely well. And so, I know there was a slowdown in China, but China was one of our stronger performances for the quarter. And a lot of it had to do with types of offerings we were talking to our clients about, customer experience that type of thing. And I haven’t seen anything yet from a European bank perspective. I know there were some concerns around that. We seem to be going through our renewals, but Q4 – it was not impacted by the European financial issues.

George Colony

Management

I was with a bunch of banks in Paris and also in London in December, Tim. And there is unsteadiness there, but this age of the customer discussions that – where Forrester is entering those banks and where we’re – our discussion. It’s in a very different place than there is straight capital investment and capital expenditure. And it is really about their customers. So – and I’m not going to name the banks, but there is not a panic, but there’s certainly – they feel the pressure from the age of the customer, from those dynamic customers. So I am not saying it is insulating us from this, but I think that it is certainly elevating us in those discussions, which is a good help.

Michael Doyle

Management

One other comments, Tim, it’s Mike Doyle. My comment about – in Canada, Canada is affected two ways. One is their direct exposure to the industry. And then, they also had it when we have a big piece of government business up there. And I think, when oil and gas declined, it is such a big percentage of the government revenues that put a squeeze on government spending and it has really hurt us in the near term up there. I think that is ultimately going to settle out, but we have got to – we got hit both directly and indirectly in Canada. And, I would say, of the sales regions that’s probably the one that felt it the worst.

George Colony

Management

That was in North America West weakness, that was reflected there, but we felt that all year.

Michael Doyle

Management

Yes, we did.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay. And maybe last one. If bookings got better, I think the agreement value, even adjusted, is not quite what you would have talked about targeting a year or two ago. What is the bogie that you would shoot for or kind of hope for maybe by the end of 2016 as we are going into 2017 at this point?

Michael Doyle

Management

We talked about that, Tim. And I would – this is Mike Doyle. I think when I gave out a perspective on 2016 in – back in the middle part of the year, I think the piece that I probably underestimated, which actually, I think, to George’s point, I think is completely flushed out this year was this is going to be a two year conversion. And I assumed a decent amount was behind us, but we actually saw more of it in the third quarter and fourth quarter as we see clients who are transitioning to AOC. And for some of that, that means that they maybe trim some of the spend with us in the short-term. Our retention rates held up, but we saw some trimming of spending. Now, I think that, for the most part, has transitioned out, but I think I misjudged what that impact was going to be in 2016, so what – or in 2015 I’m sorry, Tim. What we would be looking for, though, in the back half of 2016 is that we should be pushing double-digit bookings numbers in the back half. And so, we roll into 2017 with double-digit revenue numbers. So that’s the game plan. And I think we have got a lot of that, what I call the AOC flush behind us in terms of people transitioning to AOC.

George Colony

Management

Just to say it another way, Tim, we thought that we would work through the client transition in 2014. But it took two cycles of renewals for that to really happen and that surprised us. That is a little bit of the story – I mean, a lot of the story of the early part of 2015. But we are now through those two cycles, so we feel like we have – I guess, pretty much behind us.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Michael Doyle

Management

Thanks, Tim.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Vincent Colicchio from Barrington Research. Vincent, please go ahead.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

Mike Morhardt, you mentioned that you’re refining the buying process, [indiscernible] training, new processes, et cetera. Can you give us more color on exactly what you are doing there?

Michael Morhardt

Management

Yes. So, one of the things that is a little bit unique to Forrester is that we haven’t - taken customer experience as serious as other companies have in the previous years, but this year, that has changed pretty dramatically. And so we use some of our own methodologies around journey mapping to examine how our clients actually buy from us, and the experience inside, too, of the internal resources and how we work together. And it was eye-opening. We found out that we could change some simple processes, some terms that we work with clients, certain contracts, and how we handle them. How a salesperson books a deal and the process that they have to go through. And this cross functional team came together over about four months and started to make these changes in September and October. And it was a pretty dramatic effect on the business. Normally, Q4 is crazy, it was, but it was manageably crazy. Usually the last day of the year, the team is here until midnight. We had booked most of our deals by 6 o’clock. And so it was a very thoughtful approach to approaching our clients that are dealing with very, very sophisticated buying processes themselves. So it was a combination of some changes we made in technology around our booking systems, some process changes we made about how the workflow actually looked. And, then, some policy changes as well where we were able to be a little bit more flexible with certain clients working with the finance team to just make sure that certain paper were on certain contracts. We didn’t have to go back to the client as frequently because we were able to get it the first time. And so, all those things added up to a very smooth close and a very smooth quarter.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

Thanks for that. And I don’t know who this one will be for, but I know you have got new leadership with the – in the board business and the event businesses. And they still continue to decline, if I heard, 20% decline on revenue on the event side. And the Leadership Boards, I guess the members are down 8%. Any early signs for to be positive there? And sort of when do you see this thing turning around in upcoming periods here?

Michael Doyle

Management

Vince, this is Mike. I am going to first comment on the financial performance and I think, then, George can probably give a better comment on overall leadership. But, interestingly enough, both our event and our board business beat their plan numbers in the fourth quarter from a booking standpoint. And I think we had projected that our board business was going to decline because we closed and consolidated some underperforming councils at the beginning of the year, so we expected this impact. So we actually – we rebounded nicely in the fourth quarter. I was actually quite happy with the performance there. And I think, as George mentioned, we have a new leader for the events business, a very experienced guy, and we have got a good team there now. And I think that is very much in the mode of building it back to growth in a very effective way. And the leadership – on the leadership boards, we are close to making a decision on a leader there. In the interim, our head of products and research, Cliff Condon, has had an active hand on the wheel there, but I will let George give more color on that.

George Colony

Management

Yes. I would just say a few things here, Vince, about Cliff Condon. He took over in August. And he has had a palpable effect on the entire business as a leader for our product portfolio. And I don’t want to say one person can make that much difference, but he has really, really changed the dialogue here around products and the collaboration of the executive team. He hired a great person, of course, to run events, and we are on the cusp of hiring a really good person runs FLB. So I think you’re going to see – we already saw in Q4 both of those products begin to really make a turn. So I think they are going to have a good 2016.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

Okay, thanks for the color there. Thanks guys.

Michael Doyle

Management

Thanks, Vince.

George Colony

Management

Thanks Vince.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Bill Sutherland from Emerging Growth Equities. Bill please go ahead.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

Yes, that’s interesting. The quota-bearing reps, just a number question, Mike. I didn’t quite figure out what – you talked about the change, and I am not – it didn’t make sense on my spreadsheet.

Michael Doyle

Management

Yes. Let me give you some – Bill, that was my mistake. Okay. I misread. So we are – rep headcount – sales quota count rep increased 4% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. It increased 3% compared to prior quarters. So our actual quota carrying count, I think, ended at 340, and that was up from 329 in the third quarter.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

Right.

Michael Doyle

Management

Okay. And that comparable number fourth quarter last year was 326.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

Got it.

Michael Doyle

Management

So I created confusion not intentionally, Bill, but I slipped…

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

That’s all right.

Michael Doyle

Management

I wanted to make Morhardt swim a little bit on some of these.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

And so I’m thinking the quarterly cadence based on the fact that the transition away from the age of the customer – or into the age of the customer product line just is – I would think it is gradually worked through. And then – because the revenue obviously in the first quarter is below that of the full year, and I am not sure how much of that is FX. But is that the right way to think about the year?

Michael Doyle

Management

Yes, you know, the first quarter, Bill, is interesting because we also – we had one event last year and we don’t have any events scheduled for the first quarter of this year. So that takes us down about $1 million. And then you do have some FX impact in there. And I think coming out of the gate, we’re always a little cautious, it’s beginning the year and we have got a lot that is always going on. So obviously, our intent, as it is every quarter, is to try and beat that number. But we do have a structural change with the one event moving out of the first quarter into subsequent quarters.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

Okay. And then, actually, if you guys wouldn’t mind spending another minute on this transition, the product transition. And it has been an issue of ARPU declining before it goes up? Is that kind of – because you – a couple – some products didn’t get renewed and they didn’t pick up at AOC immediately?

Michael Doyle

Management

Well, I would say that – and we knew – to George’s point, we knew when we were making this transition, Bill, we expected that some people – in some instances, literally, we dropped coverage in certain areas, right. So you had people who were no longer buying seats in those areas because it didn’t exist anymore. So we had – we added some of that. And so, as you move out of that and you move out of what we consider older traditional board councils and moved into the new, some people were not ready to move into the new. They didn’t believe us entirely, they just took down their spending, which pull down our enrichment numbers a little bit. And I think when my expectation was that most of that would cycle through in 2014 and then 2015 would have a nominal effect, that wasn’t the case. In actuality, it came close to our original forecast of erosion that we made three years ago and just happened to occur in 2015 as well.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

Okay.

George Colony

Management

And so, I think clients didn’t believe us.

Michael Doyle

Management

Yes, I think you’re right, George.

George Colony

Management

In the first 12 months, it took two cycles before they would really wake up and say, okay, these guys are seriously moving their business.

Michael Doyle

Management

And I think as content moved that way and our research and a lot of our actions moved that way, what we’re seeing now is what I would call the healthy side of the transition. Yes, I think a lot of the noise is behind us. There may still be some noise ahead, but now it is a much more aggressive – and, to Mike’s point, enthusiasm around it in Q4, around people really embracing what is going on. So now it is a matter of how do we get that going at a faster rate.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

Okay. Last question is on cash plans. As you look into the year, are you going to – where’s the authorization at this point?

Michael Doyle

Management

We have got about $37 million left on our share repurchase authorization. And so, the typical reset at the beginning of every year is George and the Board determining, okay, what do we think is the best use. We have got some internal investments that we’re going to make, M&A, and then share repurchase. So that cycle has started, and I think that we are still kicking around our plans to think about how we want to do that. We got feedback from the Board, and I think George is digesting and we will determine where we go from there.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

I mean, it strikes me that you’re kind of at an interesting cusp as far as an opportunity to bring in your shares at attractive levels and benefit shareholders that way. Just to get more aggressive here before your numbers really demonstrate kind of what you guys are suggesting is around the corner here fundamentally.

George Colony

Management

I would agree that it is certainly a big opportunity, Bill, and I think the other piece of it is, as the debate that occurs is that our AOC strategy takes hold, are there things that are interesting out there that would be good add-ons to help us accelerate the AOC growth from an M&A standpoint. And you weigh the two of those things in terms of which is going to enhance shareholder value more, and I think that is a little bit of the discussion that goes on now as well as the internal investment.

Michael Morhardt

Management

We are in consideration mode at this point, I would say.

Bill Sutherland

Analyst

All ready, thanks guys.

George Colony

Management

Thank you, Bill.

Michael Doyle

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And it appears we have no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it over to Mike.

Michael Doyle

Management

Okay, great. Thanks everyone for joining the call. We expect to be out and hopefully see as many shareholders and potential shareholders as possible in the upcoming quarters. So, we’re looking forward to doing that and continue to talk more about where we are headed and the power of the AOC strategy. So, thanks very much.

George Colony

Management

Thank you.

Michael Morhardt

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.