Earnings Labs

Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Tue, May 4, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the first quarter 2010 Forrester Research earnings conference call. My name is Michelle and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will be conducting a question and answer session towards the end of today’s conference. (Operator instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today’s call, Ms. Karyl Levinson, Vice President of Corporate Communications. Please proceed.

Karyl Levinson

Management

Thanks very much and good morning. Thank you for joining our first quarter call. With me today are George Colony, Forrester’s Chairman of the Board and CEO, Charles Rutstein, Forrester’s Chief Operating Officer, and Mike Doyle, Forrester's Chief Financial Officer. Mike will open the call and provide detail on our financial results for the quarter. George will follow Mike and provide a strategic update on the business and our role-based strategy. After George completes his review, we’ll open the call to Q&A. A replay of this call will be available until May 6, 2010 and can be accessed by dialing 888-286-8010. Please reference the pass code 70546377. This call is also available via webcast and will be archived in the investor section at forrester.com. Before we begin, I’d like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as expect, believe, anticipate, intend, plan, estimate, or similar, expressions are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the Company's current plans and expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause future activities and results of operations to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Some of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as result of new information, future events or otherwise. I'll now hand the call over to Mike Doyle.

Mike Doyle

Management

Thanks, Karyl. I will now begin my review Forrester’s first quarter financial performance, the balance sheet of March 31st, our first quarter metrics and the outlook for the second quarter and full year 2010. Please note that the income statement numbers I'm reporting are pro forma and exclude the following items Amortization of intangibles, stock-based compensation expense, reorganization costs in 2009, acquisition related costs and credits and net realized gains from investments. Also, we continue to utilize an effective tax rate at 40% for pro forma purposes. The actual effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2010 is approximately 38%. For the first quarter, Forrester exceeded its quarterly guidance for pro forma operating margin and EPS and met guidance for revenue. We’re pleased with the continued improvement in our operating performance which reflects healthy renewal activity and excellent operating discipline, resulting in strong bottom-line performance. We continue to see signs of an improving economy both with improved customer retention and enrichment metrics and broad-based success across all segments and geographies. In addition, the integration of Strategic Oxygen acquired on December 1st is progressing as planned and had a small but positive effect on our operating results. Now let me turn to a more detailed review of our first quarter results. Forrester's first quarter revenue increased 5% to 59.2 million from 56.4 million in the first quarter of last year. Given our deferred revenue recognition model we’re just now starting to see the revenue effects of our improving bookings performance over the last few quarters. In addition, we experience strong consulting delivery and a positive impact of foreign exchange rates. First quarter research services revenue increased 1% to 39.4 million from 39 million last year. Research services revenue was 67% of total revenue for the quarter versus 69% in the…

George Colony

Management

Thanks Mike. I'd like to welcome everyone to the call. I’ll cover three topics this morning. Number one, the economy and tax spending, two Forrester’s three business imperatives, and finally, three progress with acquisitions and the integration of Strategic Oxygen. Turning first to the economy and tax spending, as a global economy recovers I’m glad to report that Forrester’s clients are moving out of their conservative spending position into more aggressive growth. Budgets for marketing and strategy rolls, IT roles and roles with the tech vendors are all beginning to expand. Forrester projected that 2010 tax spending will increase 8.4% in the U.S. with the global IT market up 7.7% in U.S. dollars. Computer equipment and software will lead the increase in spending, IT services will lag as this sector waits for new package software projects to begin. In addition, IT outsourcing, a maturing market segment will show modest growth of 4%. Manufacturers, financial services firms, utilities and healthcare will lead the recovery in the U.S. The North America and Asia Pacific regions will show the highest growth with western and central Europe lagging due to currency and debt problems. Tax spending, as you know, is closely correlated with GDP growth and Forrester expects U.S. GDP to increase 2.5% to 4% in 2010. In addition to the short-term dynamics Forrester projected a long-term cycle of technology innovation driven by smart computing, the app internet, services-oriented architectures, social marketing and new forms of mobile computing. We believe this four technology way will last between seven years to ten years. Now, all this poised very well for Forrester’s long-term business. When technology spending increases clients in their roles use research to lower the risk of tax expenditures, they use boards to get advice from peers, they use data to benchmark consulting against…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). Your first question comes from Laura Lederman. Please proceed. Laura Lederman – William Blair & Company & LLC: Hi, guys. Congratulations on the improvement of business. Can you talk a little bit about why given the nice speed in EPS you didn’t raise the guidance for the year? Is it conservatism or just the expectation to step up spending? Thanks.

Mike Doyle

Management

Hey, Laura, it’s Mike Doyle. I think at this point it’s more conservatism than not. It’s early in the year and I think that if the second quarter plays out as we hope then we will look to adjust guidance at that point in time. But we’ve tried to historically not done anything in the first quarter just because we’re three months in. So we do expect spending to ramp up but that is factored in our guidance for the second quarter. So at this point I’d say it’s a little bit of conservatism. Laura Lederman – William Blair & Company & LLC: All right, that’s helpful. You mentioned that currency was a positive and I didn't see it in the information of the release. So can you give us how much of a benefit –

Mike Doyle

Management

It’s about one point on revenue, Laura, on the top line. The effect on bottom line performance is negligible because we have a natural hedge so to speak a little bit. So went a little bit the other way on the expense side, but we picked up about one point on the revenue side. Laura Lederman – William Blair & Company & LLC: All right. And just sort of a mathematical question which is the deferred went up yet CD isolating for the change in how you define CD was flat. So can you talk a little bit about the differences in the timing of those things?

Mike Doyle

Management

The agreement value for us was up and we didn’t give a specific but I would say it was just up, if you back up the effect of eliminating the multiyear deal aspect of it, it was up just a shade under what deferred revenue was up. So it tended to move in tandem. So we’re pretty comfortable the metric is still good, is just we made a change mid-year last year, which we think is a good change, because it’s just focuses on the one year, the first year of multiyear deal. Laura Lederman – William Blair & Company & LLC: And just one final clarification. When you talked about the renewal rate of 77% and the ACH [ph] dollar was that a rolling four quarter or was it –

Mike Doyle

Management

It is. Yes, both the client and dollar our retention rates are rolling four quarters. As you would expect it’s got some of the effects of last year is still in there, so we’re really encouraged by the way that’s moving. We’re very happy with those trends. Laura Lederman – William Blair & Company & LLC: I know historically that you provided rolling 12-months, but the language sounded like it no longer was. I got a little confused. So, thank you, I didn’t know –

Mike Doyle

Management

I apologize if I didn’t create that – Laura Lederman – William Blair & Company & LLC: I would –

Mike Doyle

Management

All of them are –I’m sorry, go ahead. Laura Lederman – William Blair & Company & LLC: No, it’s reporting season. I’m tired. So it’s not your explanation. My ability to listen. Thanks. I’ll go ahead and pass the questions on.

Mike Doyle

Management

Thanks, Laura.

George Colony

Management

Thanks, Laura.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). Your next question comes from the line of Bill Sutherland of Boenning & Scattergood. Please proceed. Kevin Ciabattoni – Boenning & Scattergood: Good morning, guys. This is actually Kevin Ciabattoni, on for Bill.

George Colony

Management

Hi, Kevin. Kevin Ciabattoni – Boenning & Scattergood: Given the increase in the sales headcount, did you guys see any change in your productivity metrics in the quarter or did they pretty much hold up as expected?

Mike Doyle

Management

We don’t release them but we did have a nice bump on productivity. So we’re pretty happy with where it’s headed, Kevin. I’d say the last couple of quarters since Greg came on board and made changes to his team we’ve been quite pleased with the progress so far. So, we’re anxious to see how 2010 plays out, but right now I’m optimistic. Kevin Ciabattoni – Boenning & Scattergood: Okay. And then I know you touched on this a little bit, but give maybe some more color on the customer facing technology development in terms of your level of investment and any customer feedback you’ve gotten?

George Colony

Management

The feedback on the blogs have been excellent. As I pointed out the advantage of it being a one platform is that the blogs are all highly interconnected and highly referenced and referential. So that’s been a big improvement in the blog platform, clients love that. On the community side, we started with FLB because I was in FLB meaning a couple of years ago it was down to Miami and FLB clients I meet I love the boards, they’re fantastic, but I want to be able to talk to my peers much more seamlessly when we’re not meeting. And so that really sparked almost two years ago, the development of the communities. And the communities rolled out I think it was in September of 2009, we began to roll communities for FLBs. And that’s been very well received. I said the numbers are increasing there, and satisfaction has been very high there, I would expect us to spend more money in communities for other set of clients in the company. So I think you’re looking at probably a year, two years of more spending from Forrester on client facing technology because there’s so much dynamism in that business right now. Kevin Ciabattoni – Boenning & Scattergood: Okay. That’s very helpful. And then, lastly, can you give us some color on the consulting growth and the events in terms, I know you talked about this current quarter, 2Q, but any plans you have for the number of events for the full year or attendance trends there?

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Hey, Kevin, it’s Charles. With respect to the number of events in the year I believe it’s flat versus last year. If you want to say the specific events and the timing of them they are up in our Web site at forrester.com/events. The other question was consulting? Kevin Ciabattoni – Boenning & Scattergood: Yes.

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

So what’s the specific question there, Kevin? Kevin Ciabattoni – Boenning & Scattergood: Just some color on the growth in the quarter, what was driving that?

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Right. I think in part what you’re saying is the economic recovery happening, one. Two, some improvements in productivity on the delivery side of consulting. And part of it I guess is driven by some of the stuff that George was talking about, the uncertainty that’s in the market right now, around some of the newer technologies and how they fit into the corporate landscape. Kevin Ciabattoni – Boenning & Scattergood: Okay, that's helpful. That's all I had. Thanks.

George Colony

Management

Thanks, Kevin.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levine of Robert W. Baird. Please proceed. Mick Dobray – Robert W. Baird: Good morning. This is actually Mick Dobray sitting in for Dan. And I’m going to follow-up on the consulting question. As we’re looking at performance in advisory services, in general, is the type of performance that we've seen this quarter pretty much factored into your guidance or has performance here been a bit stronger than what you expected initially?

Mike Doyle

Management

I think we were up slightly but what we had expected for the quarter, but for the most part we got that factored into our guidance. I think I’ll go back to the point, Laura Lederman, made in, in her first quarter though. Q2 certainly reflects what we believe to be the activity from an advisory standpoint that we expect. And then for the full year we’ll be updating that in the second quarter call. But right now, (inaudible) unchanged, probably a little bit of conservatism there. Mick Dobray – Robert W. Baird: I see. And switching to the research portion, I know that you have a syndicated goal of 70%. Can you give us an update as to when you think reaching that target would be achievable? Is there something likely to happen maybe this year or 2011? How are you thinking about that?

George Colony

Management

I think it’s two years, Mick. I think this year because the nature of coming out of the recession, right, so the research sort of build back based on our bookings activity that’s going to build on a very measured and positive pace. And the Charles point I think we’ve got a lot of activity with customers on the advisory side and that’s going to continue. I think what you’re going to see is dollars grow in both areas which is a good thing and the percentages will come together I think in probably a couple of years we will see a 70% number.

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

One other thought, Mick, it’s Charles. If you look at the year-on-year comparisons in some of the non-syndicated line items, for example, in the events business, you’re comparing against relatively soft '09 and as those lines start coming back more strongly obviously that’s going to push the percentage down (inaudible) the business.

George Colony

Management

We’ve talked this on previous calls, but event is when GDP begins to recover that’s more of the first businesses (inaudible) to grow at fast rates, in fact, we’re observing that this year. Mick Dobray – Robert W. Baird: Great. And there’s unfortunately a bit of confusion in my mind with regards to how agreement value is calculated around this change. Can you provide some sort of color around sequential progression here from Q4 to Q1 in agreement value and deferred revenue? And kind of what you’re seeing as strength there?

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Yes, I think Q4 and Q1 are from a methodology standpoint for agreement value are consistent. So we changed mid-year last year. So I think they’re consistent. And we typically by the way see declines from Q4 to Q1, okay? That'’ just sort of a natural piece. You get this spike up with our heavy activity in the fourth quarter. And that’s historical. Our AB declines from Q4 to Q1 and go back. So that’s just a typical pattern. And the same on deferred revenue. So you’re going to have that movement as a natural part of what we do. That’s why we prefer to look at it year-over-year by quarter. That to me is a cleaner metric and a better measure of how we’re doing. Mick Dobray – Robert W. Baird: And one last question for me is you’re looking at 12% extra headcount in the sales force. What sort of goal do you guys have for the new people added this year as far as, how should I say, new customer additions or new engagements generated? How should we think about that?

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Mick, it’s Charles. The ramp time for reps depends quite a bit on their position from the company and where they are in the kinds of customers that they’re going after. It’s not so much about customer count as it is about dollars. You can figure that from the time of higher until the time of full productivity is going to be probably somewhere around nine months. Sometimes as low as six months, sometimes as long as 12 months. And so the impact on the current year is totally dependent on when they land in the year. As you saw we got the target of 15% to 20% for the year, we landed 12% in Q1, that means that you’ll see a slowing pace of additions later in the year ,but we still expect to wind up in that 15% to 20% range. Mick Dobray – Robert W. Baird: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Colicchio of Noble Financial. Please proceed. Vincent Colicchio – Noble Financial: Nice quarter, guys. Mike, I think you said that new clients declined 32% sequentially?

Mike Doyle

Management

Vincent, not 32%, the decline – Vincent Colicchio – Noble Financial: Excuse me, I’m tired as well, from (inaudible).

Mike Doyle

Management

I know it’s (inaudible) Vince. Vincent Colicchio – Noble Financial: Yes, 32 number sequentially. Should we expect new clients to start increasing going forward throughout the year?

Mike Doyle

Management

I think the trend over the years going to be positive. I think clearly we have as we’ve always had in our business a lot of noise with smaller clients, right? So we have a lot of ins and outs and that coupled with what I would like to call a timing pieces that can happen we have deals that slip into another quarter it can affect it. But I think what you’re going to see is the trend over the course of the year is going to be absolutely moving up. So can I predict each of the quarters? No, it’s difficult. That’s why we’ve adopted the rolling 12-month metrics for client retention and dollar retention and enrichment because those tend to capture some of the fluctuations that can occur and gives you better trend numbers. But client count always been a point in time measure.

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

One other thought there that’s is, is if you look at the difference in some of those metrics that Mike talked about the difference between the client and dollar retention rates it’s about 11 points. You start to understand some of the underlying dynamics for renewing our biggest clients at a significantly higher rate than the smaller clients, we’re increasing our influence with the biggest most important companies in the world and the noise that you’re seeing is typically the smaller companies’ typically small technology vendors.

George Colony

Management

And one of the points, Vince, this is George, is that the power role based is that in the power of the repackaging that we did last year means we’re able now to reach more roles in those large companies and that is tending to drive the size of those contracts. Vincent Colicchio – Noble Financial: And another question on the agreement value issue, Mike?

Mike Doyle

Management

Sure. Vincent Colicchio – Noble Financial: On the same basis, you said it increased year-over-year. What kind of magnitude, was that moderate or low?

Mike Doyle

Management

We didn’t get specifics, but the shade below our deferred revenue growth which was 8%. So we back out the effects of the multiyear we’re about 6% up on AB. Vincent Colicchio – Noble Financial: Okay. And one last question do you plan on implementing a price increase this year? Any early thoughts on that?

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Hey, Vince, it’s Charles. So we typically undertake price changes in the summer time. This year would be no exception. As always same factors that we look at. Product demand, one, value we deliver, two, and competitive environment, three. I think all I’d want to say at this point is that you may recall that we made material changes to the packaging model last year, splitting roll view into three separate pieces, which has implications for pricing here in 2010. What I means is that we now have the flexibility to differentially price by client segment and extract the appropriate value by segment. And so, you’re unlikely to see and across the board of change, but rather some changes specific to the customer segments, but we would talk about those later in the year. Vincent Colicchio – Noble Financial: Okay, that’s it for me. Thanks, guys.

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Thank you.

George Colony

Management

Thank you, Vincent.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) As there are no further questions I would like to turn the call back over to Karyl Levinson for closing remarks.

Karyl Levinson

Management

Thank you very much and enjoy the rest of the day.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude the conference for today. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.