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Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)

Q1 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 30, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to First Quarter 2009 Forrester Research Earnings Conference Call. My name Francine and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will conduct a question and answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Ms. Karyl Levinson, Vice President of Corporate Communications. Please proceed.

Karyl Levinson

Management

Thank you and good morning. Thank you for joining our first quarter 2009 call. With me today are George Colony, Forrester's Chairman of the Board and CEO, Charles Rutstein, Forrester's Chief Operating Officer, and Mike Doyle, Forrester's Chief Financial Officer. Mike will open the call and provide detail on our financial results for the quarter. George will follow Mike and provide a strategic update on the business and our role based strategy. After George completes his review, we'll open the call to Q&A. A replay of this call will be available until May 7, 2009 and can be accessed by dialing 888-286-8010. Please reference the pass code 98034661. This call is also available via webcast and it will be archived in the investor section at forrester.com. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as, expect, believe, anticipate, intends, plans, estimates, or similar, expressions are intended to identify these forward-looking statement. These statements are based on the company's current plans and expectations and involves risks and uncertainties that could cause future activities and results of operations to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statement. Some of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement whether as result of new information, future events or otherwise. I'll now hand the call over to Mike Doyle.

Michael A. Doyle

Management

Thanks Karyl. I will now begin my review of the financial performance for the Forrester's first quarter 2009 results, the balance sheet at March 31, our first quarter metrics and the outlook for the second quarter and full year 2009. Please note that the income statement numbers I'm reporting are pro forma and exclude the following items, amortization of intangibles, non-cash stock based compensation expense, reorganization costs associated with the previously announced reduction in force and facilities consolidation cost, professional fees related to the stock option investigation and restatement of the company's historical financials and net realized gains from securities and non-marketable investments. Also, we will book an effective tax rate at 40% for pro forma purposes. The actual effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2009 is approximately 41%. For the first quarter 2009, Forrester exceeded its quarterly guidance for revenue, pro forma operating margin and pro forma EPS. This performance came in what was a difficult quarter for the global economy, which adversely impacted many of our customers, but demonstrated our ability to effectively manage our cost to deliver strong business results. That said, our softness in some of our metrics, deferred revenue in particular, indicate they were not completely immune to the effects of a global economic downturn and remain conscious about the second quarter and full year 2009. Therefore, despite exceeding guidance in the first quarter, we're reiterating our full year 2009 guidance consistent with our call in February. Now let me turn to a more detailed review of our first quarter results. Forrester's first quarter revenue increased 3% to 56.4 million from 55 million in the first quarter last year, with growth attributable to the Jupiter acquisition being offset by the adverse impact of foreign exchange rates. First quarter research services revenue increased 9%…

George F. Colony

Management

Thanks Mike. And I'd like to welcome everyone to Forrester's Q1 investor conference call. In my remarks I will address three topics. Number one, how Forrester is managing during the recession, two a change in how Forrester packages its research and finally three an update on the company's three business imperatives. Turning first to Forrester and the recession; as evidenced by yesterday's economic data, the recession continued in full force in the first quarter. Forrester estimates that text spending will fall 6% to 10% in 2009 with the largest impact felt in computer and communications equipment. So, how is Forrester managing in these times; as Mike has highlighted the company is carefully watching and controlling expenses. Between a slowdown in hiring and the first quarter's reduction in force, Forrester is right sized for 2009's economic environment. The recession has impacted Forrester's sectors unevenly. While the business for IT and technology industry roles has decelerated, demand from our seven marketing and strategy roles be planned. And this is due to three reasons. Number one, the Jupiter acquisition has enhanced our offerings for marketing and strategy roles. Two, much less competition in that segment as compare to IT and TI; and finally three, the marketing and strategy roles are markedly challenged in these times of social computing, the collapse of advertising and the movement of media from print to digital. Our consumer data products had a good quarter as large companies shifted spending from custom surveys to Forrester's syndicated techno graphics research. As I've discussed on past calls the event's business is the most fragile product in our portfolio, being susceptible to teeny cut in terms of recession. While we did contemplate canceling events for the year, we did not do so. And this has worked out well. While the events are…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brian Murphy of Sidoti. Please proceed. Brian Murphy - Sidoti & Co.: Hi, thanks for taking my question. George could you give us some color on how the repackaging initiative might affect pricing?

Michael Doyle

Analyst

Brian, its Mike Doyle. I think I'll tackle that. It's our expectation that the impact for 2009 is going to be net neutral. As with every pricing decision, this one cuts across all three client groups. And so there is puts and takes in each of those situations. So it is included and was included in the guidance that we projected for full year in February and its our expectation this year is that there's going to be net neutral for us Brian. Brian Murphy - Sidoti & Co.: Okay, and could you talk about the timing of when I guess this initiative gets launched or rolled out, so to speak?

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Sure, Brian. This is Charles. So this packaging is now in the marketplace for all contracts in Q2. In fact, we started at with new business deals at the tail end of Q1, so it's sort of from here on forward. Brian Murphy - Sidoti & Co.: Okay, I mean I imagine that this kind of thing would certainly improve client retention and it seems like client retention held up pretty well in the first quarter. One question is how is the new business environment? Did you see any improvement there in the March quarter? And with this new repackaging initiative, have you seen any impact yet that you can talk about?

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Sure. So, lets only take those questions in sequence, it's Charles again. First with respect to new business within the quarter, I would say we were pleasantly surprised by the new business performance across much of the company. Previous downturns have made us concerned about what the new business performance might be, but in fact new business held up very well. With respect to the go forward and what we expect on the new packaging and of course the pricing that goes with it, as Mike said, its net neutral for the year. But we think it gives us some real advantages going forward. It gives us the ability, first to differentially price by customer segments. And price as the market will bear in those respective segments. It allows us, as George mentioned, to monetize any acquisitions that we might do, rather than dumping it into the mix that everybody gets at the same price. It also allows us -- also as George mentioned to specialize the sales teams and therefore to make them more effective. So, I think you're going to see a lot of downstream impact from this. Brian Murphy - Sidoti & Co.: Okay, thanks. I'll jump back in the queue.

Michael Doyle

Analyst

Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Colicchio of Noble. Please proceed.

Vincent Colicchio - Noble Financial Group

Analyst

Nice quarter guys in a tough environment. Mike, can you remind us, how much of employee compensation is variable, so we can better understand your ability to withstand shortfalls in revenue?

Michael Doyle

Analyst

Yeah, we haven't we haven't given a precise range Vince, but I want to say that it's typically if you weigh in -- because all Forrester employees are on a variable compensation of one form or another. For the sales employees it is commission based, for non-sales all of this are on what, its a matrix, which there's really two axes to that; one is, bookings activity and the other is operating profit. So, and it works out. I want to say what we've said in the past, is that that can be in the neighborhood of, I want to say 10% plus or minus is variable. And it leverages up or down. But a figure in the range of 10% to 15%, is a good range to use. And that again fluctuates as bookings and operating profit. So, but again our broad range; if you want to look at all employees, if you go sales comp you can be as low as five to 10% as high as 30%, when you start going into what I consider the need of our employees.

George Colony

Analyst

And generally speaking, the more senior the employee is the more leveraged they are.

Michael Doyle

Analyst

And that metrics is paid in a quarterly basis, Vincent.

Vincent Colicchio - Noble Financial Group

Analyst

Are there any -- regarding guidance for the rest of year. I could appreciate your interest in assuming the similar economic scenario to the 4Q period, and putting your guidance up out there, who knows what the economy holds. But it does appear to be bottoming out. It appears that it will bottom out through the rest of year if the consensus forecasts are right. Are there any reference we can take from previous recessions in terms of, during the bottoming out period your ability to see some improvement in top line?

Michael Doyle

Analyst

I would say that well there are two pieces that impact our outlook for the year, the first is fundamental to our model, which as we -- George and I have been on the road a lot. We've talked about the nature of our deferred revenue model where effectively we look better in the beginning parts of our recession. And typically, the P&L itself looks a little bit worst for us as we come out. Because if you think about our fourth quarter deferred revenue was down year-over-year, and our first quarter, it's down year-over-year. That will play out in the P&L going forward. So that factored into looking at our full year guidance. And the second piece is, it's just is -- somewhat unique economic circumstances. So, we're only through the first quarter, and we are cautious. And I think we want to see how it plays out. And I think we saw some things that were positive to the points Charles mentioned relative to new business. And that certainly is encouraging for us. But you look at our consulting revenues were off and down year-over-year, and that will have an impact. So, it's difficult to predict when that's going to comeback. So, I think we remain cautious for the balance of the year for those reasons. We'll certainly be looking at guidance and updating everyone appropriately on each of the calls. We'll have a better peek -- and I know I'm stating the obvious we'll have a better sense for 2009 as we close out the second quarter, and have a better sense of the balance of the year. Yeah, it feels like things are beginning to bottom out. But again, keep in mind, because our model that will lag for us. So if we have a good and strong third quarter and fourth quarter from a bookings perspective, we reap the benefits of that more into 2010.

George Colony

Analyst

So, we go down we go down later than everybody else, we also come up later than everyone else. And that's what happened in the last recession.

Vincent Colicchio - Noble Financial Group

Analyst

Okay, thanks. One other question, Mike, what should we be modeling for capital spending for the year?

Michael Doyle

Analyst

I'm still comfortable being in our historical ranges of around five million plus or minus. We had -- obviously, the first quarter was higher than it typically is, because of series of lease hold improvements that occurred with our facility here in Cambridge. But I think the full year five million plus or minus is reasonable Vince, I don't expect us to be outside of our norm.

Vincent Colicchio - Noble Financial Group

Analyst

Okay, again nice quarter guys. Thanks.

George Colony

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our next question comes from the line of Laura Lederman of William Blair & Company. Please proceed. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions and nice quarter considering the environment. Can you talk a little bit about acquisition prices and are they coming down or is there still sort of a disconnect between what companies think they are worth and the reality to the market?

George Colony

Analyst

The emotions in -- of sellers are so strange Laura, because now they are thinking is gee, I'm not going to sell when the price is low. So, I don't think full desperation is really has really hit these guys yet. And for some it may never hit during this recession. But I would say that when we're nearing let's say reasonable pricing at this point, I'm not saying we're going a deal next week. But I think that we are attracted to the pricing of this point. We're getting to a good place. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: Switching gears a little bit, turning to the drop and deferred year-over-year. What does the drop look like if you take out Jupiter. So, sort of the same store stand -- same store sale sorry about that?

Michael Doyle

Analyst

Yeah, what's kind of interesting Laura, -- its Mike. What's interesting is that the effect of Jupiter which was favorable was basically offset by foreign exchange which year-over-year adversely impacted us. So, what you get is pretty close to what we would consider to be a real sort of Forrester ex-Jupiter number when you look at the absolute. So the 7% decline that we gave you is pretty darn close to what it would've been if we didn't have Jupiter and foreign exchange were neutral. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: Okay so, what is the FX and -- cap (ph) what was it?

Michael Doyle

Analyst

It's about four points. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: Okay, moving along if you look at the core research versus boards which one is holding up better in terms of new -- not new customers but bookings if you will?

Michael Doyle

Analyst

For bookings activity well its obviously, we don't disclose, but, I would say overall our core research, they both were, what I would call single-digits. So, I think that the range is dramatically different than what it's been historically. I think historically we had this dramatic up we've had a consistent and very dramatic uplift, high double-digits for our board business. And that -- that slowed and I think that's just again a reflection of George's what I will say prophetic vision about what Q1 would bring in terms of projections. So, the -- I think that we're looking at the numbers that have shrunk pretty much down to what I'll call single digit movements down. And I think that's again they've stayed into pretty tight band. So, they're moving more closely in parallel than they have historically where FOB was typically growing at very aggressive rates.

Charles Rutstein

Analyst

Hi Laura, may be just couple of other comments; this is Charles. Number one, is of course the FOB business is now a much more substantial portion of the overall P&L. And so you start to see dynamics, on a percentage basis that will look more like the role view one and they (ph) ever did before, you can't continue those 14 or 15% growth rates forever as the business scales. Second bit is that obviously the boards are a very personnel product. And so you see some discount annuities in the numbers I think in times like these, because you have a lot of turn over in staff, you've lay offs and so forth across the economy. And when somebody loses job there who is in a board you'll see the impact there much more quickly than you might in a traditional research seat which can be easily transitioned to somebody else. So I think you're seeing some of those dynamics in the numbers, is what Mike said may be similar behavior in the quarter. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: Another quick question and then I'll pass it on you guys. Be it obviously revenue earnings expectations or rather dramatically and obviously you didn't raise full year guidance. So, I was wondering did we all kind of get the ratability wrong or had you just been really-really conservative for Q1. Because you knew when went into it that obviously the impact of just sort of going down would have a delayed impact as you explained are -- a few moments ago. So I was little bit wondering about not changing the year and yet Q1 with so much better?

George Colony

Analyst

Yeah little bit of conservative in there. I think what surprised us was new business as just Charles addressed. I mean the M&S did business and IT new business actually quite good in the quarter, and we had not expected that, Laura. So, let me get a little conservative here, but some surprises as well.

Michael Doyle

Analyst

Yeah, and I would reiterate what George is saying Laura. I think that yes, we were conservative going into the first quarter because of the dramatic nature of what was happening externally. And so, it was a very difficult to predict, where some very highly variable components of our business like events and consulting would fall out. Event seems to be playing out sort of as we expected, although credits and events seem its still remains profitable. Consulting, which half way through the quarter, looked really bleak picked up towards the end. So, we felt good about that. But again there's still enough uncertainty externally that it makes it difficult to predict. So I'm with George. Were we a little conservative, absolutely. Are we still a little conservative, absolutely. It's just a its a different environment right now and I think we're again this is a mixture of good news and certainly some yellow lights flashing as well. So, we get a little bit above.

George Colony

Analyst

You know the another area Laura, where it might have been a little too conservative was -- you all don't see this but the repackaging was a huge effort internally. There was re-training of sales that went on in Q1 and there was a tremendous lot of resources headed in that direction and I think we may be overestimated the impact there. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: Final question which is for your George...

George Colony

Analyst

Yup. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: You've been very accurate on the economy when it going to weaken and so I'd love to ask to you when you think it's going to improve and the same thing for the IT spending?

George Colony

Analyst

I think, it's going to be a... Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: When we look to your numbers that you've been very prophetic?

George Colony

Analyst

By the way I want the Noble prize in economics, so -- I think that -- I'll be quiet -- our major economist internally is Andy Bartels and I we spend a lot of time in the last (ph) day or so. Its going to be a tough year in tech, I mean its reached six to 10% down in tech spending worldwide. That's in dollars and that's really quite a bit below how far tech was off in the 2001 and 2003 recession. So, that's -- those are big numbers. And that all being said we had a marketing forum last year -- last week in Orlando and I mean, this is a very impressionistic Laura, but the vibrations that I'm feeling and the signals that I'm hearing is I think we're near the bottom here. It just feels like there's some stabilization out there. I was with Zales (ph) I was with a number of our clients in the consumer space last week who were feeling a little bit more hopeful. Chico's, some of the departments was Brook Spells (ph) et cetera and so they are feeling a little bit better. So, I at least just too impressionistically think that we've reached the bottom end now. I don't think its -- we're going to get roaring back here. As an economy I think its going to be a tepid recovery. May be that we get 1% growth in GDP in the fourth quarter something are like that and then may be next year 2.3% which is worldwide GDP growth is very low. But I -- the good news is I think, we've reached the bottom and now it's kind of a period of stabilization and then slow growth. Laura Lederman - William Blair & Company: Thank you.

George Colony

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Levinson.

Karyl Levinson

Management

Thank you very much for joining us today. Have a good day.