James M. DeCosmo
Analyst · Buckingham Research Group
Thanks, Chris. And as always, welcome to everybody who's joined us on the call and the webcast this morning. I'm encouraged by our results and also believe the momentum we've generated will help fuel Forestar's performance going forward. Let's review just a few of the highlights for the first quarter, as compared to Q1 of '12. First, 446 lots sold is a nice step-up, with a healthy backlog of 1,800 lots on a contract at the end of the quarter. Second, the sale of Promesa contributed $10.9 million in earnings. Third, oil and gas production is up 113%, and that's reflective of our acquisition of Credo Petroleum. As planned, drilling activity is up and is expected to drive reserve additions and production in coming quarters. And last, fiber sales were up over 162,000 tons. We're off to a solid start in 2013, and I believe we're on track to deliver our Triple in FOR strategic initiatives. So let's take a closer look at our real estate segment and the current market conditions. The housing market is in recovery. Single-family starts were up 29% in March from year-ago levels, but that's still well below the historic average of about 1.1 million. Including multifamily starts, we exceeded 1 million -- did 1 million start level for the first time since mid-2008. I think it's also important that you keep in mind that the U.S. has averaged 1.5 million total housing starts a year for the past 50 years. As I've said on a number of occasions, demand is ultimately driven by job growth and household formation. To the extent our markets continue to generate positive job growth and maintain healthy levels of inventory, I don't see any reason why we shouldn't continue to benefit from the housing recovery. So let's take a look at a few of the housing supply-and-demand metrics for Texas. First, Texas new home supply, which is presented on the left. Despite the relatively low sales rate for new homes, the months of supply in Texas currently stands at 2 months. That's the low end of equilibrium. A primary driver here is a very low absolute inventory of new homes. Second, housing demand is ultimately driven by jobs. Texas continues to be a leader in job growth. In the last year, private employment is up 3.5% versus 1.9% for the U.S. Texas added 310,000 jobs in the private sector last year. That accounts for 15% of the total private jobs created in all 50 states. Actual unemployment stands at 6.3% in Texas versus the national average of 7.6%. As you would expect, a majority of the jobs are created in the 4 major metros of Texas where we have over 1,000 lots in development, 1,331 finished lots and almost 11,000 to be developed. Our strategy is simply to generate the greatest value from every acre. Recognizing where to invest, i.e. location, and at the right time is core to our strategy. The location of our communities and the mix of the housing products enable us to capitalize on the housing recovery. Now let's review the real estate segment results for the first quarter. In Q1 2013, real estate segment results were $19.4 million. That's up $7.8 million compared to the first quarter of last year. Residential lot sales accounted for the majority of the improvement, with additional contribution from undeveloped land sales and lower operating expenses. Also contributing to the quarter was the sale of our multifamily project, Promesa. Now let's take a quick look at our lot sales trends. Residential lot sales in the first quarter increased to 446 lots. That's up 56% from the first quarter of last year. In addition, our backlog of lots under contract has increased to almost 1,800 lots. That's a level we haven't seen since the downturn began. As you can see on the chart, quarters can be a little lumpy and that a few of the contracts call for fairly large take-downs and are often scheduled around the beginning or at the end of the quarter. Based on what we see today, we'd expect lot closings in the second quarter to be in the 300 range and in the 1,900 to 2,000 range for the year, which would be up over 40% year-over-year. We're often asked about same-store sales, in this case, comparing communities where we had lot sales in the first quarter of 2012 and this year. In these communities, lot sales were up 18%, with gross margins moving up from 39% to 41% quarter-over-quarter. That's a very healthy gross margin. Given our average lot sales, price and margin held up well throughout the downturn. Our focus has been on delivering lots and increasing the velocity of sales. In today's new home market, having quality communities in good locations, with the ability to deliver lots, continues to be a distinct competitive advantage. During the first quarter, we sold Promesa. That's our wholly-owned multifamily community in Austin which was located on the last site in one of our development projects that we call Ribelin Ranch. The time from the start of construction to sale was only about 24 months. That's about 12 months faster than a normal time to construct and stabilize a property. Total sales consideration was about $41 million, generating $10.9 million in earnings and returns well above our cost of capital. Based on our estimates and projected NOI, we believe the property traded for a subpar cap rate. Once we stated marketing, Promesa produced a strong response from the buyer universe. I think there were 2 fundamental drivers: number one, a good location with barriers to entry; but more important, and number two, the quality of the property and the project, from design all the way through to completion. The multifamily team did a very nice job from the start to finish, and I'm very pleased with the outcome. We recently approved another investment for a multifamily project. The next start will be a project in the Dallas metro and will be named Midtown Cedar Hill. We acquired the 13.5 acre site late in 2011 for about $3 million. The site is located about 15 miles southwest of Dallas' central business district, with a direct commute to the major employment centers. It's within walking distance to Cedar Hills municipal center, offices, retail, entertainment, and a real bonus is there's a nearby greenbelt and a state park. Occupancy levels in Dallas-Fort Worth and the Cedar Hill area are near 94%, still experiencing good rent growth, and there's very little product in the Cedar Hill pipeline. Like Promesa, we plan to develop this 354-unit Class A project on balance sheet. With an additional $7 million in equity, we expect to generate about a 2x cash multiple. Given the location of Cedar Hill and the capability of our team, this is expected to be a solid investment and return. Like all Forestar properties, Midtown Cedar Hill will be of high quality and it will provide a lifestyle specifically designed for the region. In addition to Cedar Hill, we have 2 other projects currently under construction: Eleven, located in Austin; and 360, located in Denver. Eleven is now over 40% complete and began pre-leasing at the beginning of April. I had the opportunity to tour the property recently, and it's a fabulous product that's been thoughtfully integrated into the fabric and the culture of Austin, much like the plan for Cedar Hill. The urban location and the elevation provide a spectacular view of downtown Austin. We've also received good initial response to our pre-leasing and marketing campaign. Plans are for the first tenant to move in, in the third quarter, with stabilization and sale in 2014. Our 360 project, located in Denver, should begin pre-leasing in June, with stabilization and sale in 2015. Pro forma Forestar cash flows for these 2 properties and from Cedar Hill are estimated at approximately $43 million. In addition, we currently have 2 development sites in the pipeline: one in Nashville and one in Charlotte. We anticipate both these projects to be included in ventures and start construction later this year. Let me sum up our real estate business for you. The greatest value from every acre is realized when we deliver the right product in the right location at the right time with the right level of investment. The execution from our strategy and initiatives is illustrated in the chart. Across the board, every dimension in real estate contributes to the acceleration of value realization. We're on the right track and committed to delivering our Triple in FOR initiatives. Let's shift to oil and gas. First quarter 2013 oil and gas segment earnings were $5.1 million, about $2 million below the first quarter of last year. The decline is partly due to lower oil production from royalty interest, lower delay rental payments and an increase in DD&A and exploration expenses associated with our increased investments. Below segment earnings is an EBITDAX reconciliation. EBITDAX is a common metric that's used by the oil and gas companies to provide additional transparency in an ongoing operating profitability. And as Anna said, there's an EBITDAX reconciliation in the appendix. You can see in the chart that, year-over-year, EBITDAX is up about $2.6 million. Oil production was up over 113% compared with the same quarter last year. 67% of the oil production came from working interest investments. That's a fundamental shift from a year ago when production was driven primarily by own royalty interest. We expect our 2013 oil and gas capital investments to drive production and reserves higher as we go forward. For the quarter, 22 wells were completed. In the Bakken, 13 wells were in the process of being drilled and/or completed. And 20 wells will be drilled or completed in the Lansing-Kansas City. Let's take a closer look at the activities in the Bakken. Drilling in the Bakken continues to accelerate as many operators are moving from drilling one-off wells to whole leases. Their pad drilling were up to 10 wells may be drilled from one location. Pad drilling enables the operators to reduce well costs and enhance EURs while also extending the play into the lower benches of Three Forks formation. Many operators expect to reduce well costs from an average of about $10 million to $9 million per well while ramping up EURs from 500,000 to 600,000. And some operators are targeting as high as 700,000 BOEs per well. And the end of the first quarter, 12 wells had been added to production, with 13 wells either drilling or awaiting on completion. At quarter end, a total of 46 wells were producing, and we expect to have 78 in production by yearend. That's over double the number compared to yearend 2012. Our 2013 plan continues to call for 54 wells to be drilled, with a potential of up to 400 over time. Based on the rate of drilling, we expect to see production pick up in the back half of 2013 and into 2014. Using our underwriting assumptions, 54 Bakken/Three Forks wells should yield over 2 million BOEs in future production and over $120 million net cash flow. Now let's moves south to another important region, Kansas and Nebraska. Given our success in the central uplift, we leased an additional 28,000 acres in the first quarter, which brings the total to 152,000 net leased total acres in the region. Our 2013 plan remains to participate in about 82 wells, a majority of which we'll operate. In first quarter, we added 7 wells and realized over a 50% success rate, even better than the historic 40% rate. On a risk-adjusted basis, we're generating returns in the 100% range. One of the benefits of our Kansas/Nebraska operations is that we've got a good, solid pipeline of drilling sites in front of us. In fact, at its current pace, we have several years of sites identified for drilling. Shifting gears to an update on our 2013 drilling and CapEx program. During the first quarter, we invested $7.1 million in the Bakken/Three Forks, $3.7 million in Lansing-Kansas City and $1.2 million in various plays in Texas and Louisiana. In total, we invested $12 million in 32 wells and expect the pace of drilling investment to pick up throughout this year. Even though the drilling completion plan is weighted toward the back end of this year, we still expect to see a pickup in production in the latter half. After 6 months of operations, the transformation from a minerals management strategy to a low-cost power terminal and gas business is meeting our expectations. As the chart illustrates, on a BOE basis, we expect a significant step-up in 2013 production. This is a tribute of our investments but even more so to our team's ability to recognize good prospects and locations and deliver the greatest value from every acre. Shifting gears to other natural resources. In the first quarter, fiber sales were up $2.1 million from the first quarter of last year. During the quarter, we sold over 190,000 tons of fiber. That's up over 162,000 tons from the previous year, with the variance primarily due to the timing of harvest. For the year, we expect volume to be in the 500,000- to 600,000-ton range. Our average stumpage price in the quarter was up over 35% from a year ago, and that's driven primarily by a higher mix of sawlog prices and then, to a lesser extent, higher stumpage prices. In addition, our timberlands were recently recertified under the Sustainable Forestry Initiatives. Kudos goes out to the team for stewarding our timber resources and for making a significant contribution in the first quarter. In the last section of the call, I want to update you on the execution of our Triple in FOR strategic initiatives. We're absolutely committed to proving-up and growing our net asset value. Top priority: deliver our Triple in FOR strategic initiatives. Number One, accelerating value realization. Our first quarter 2013 earnings are up 45% from the first quarter of '12, driven by a step-up in both lots sales and oil production. In addition, we sold Promesa well ahead of time, which enhanced return and without sacrificing value. Number two, optimize transparency and disclosure. Our new reporting segments better reflect the operating strategy of our business and provide greater transparency into the performance of our oil and gas business. And number three, raising our net asset value. In the first quarter, we invested about $29 million of capital in real estate and in oil and gas. A majority of the real estate investments were for the development of lots, which generated gross margins in excess of 37% in 2012. Less than half the capital invested was in oil and gas, primarily for drilling completion of oil and gas wells which are expected to return well above our 20% rate-of-return hurdle. Despite lackluster GDP growth and an anemic new norm in the U.S. economy, I'm proud to be a part of Forestar. We're focused on those parts of our business that we can affect, and I'm looking forward to the days ahead. We've made good progress toward delivering our Triple in FOR segment EBITDA targets. In the first quarter, we generated about $31 million in total segment EBITDA, that's almost equivalent to our yearly average from 2008 through 2011. In closing, I'm encouraged by our progress and the momentum we've generated in Forestar. Our management team and employees have done a nice job and get all the credit of our success to date. But I'd also say that I believe we're still early in the game. We're headed in the right direction, but I know our team, I know what they're capable of, and we can always do better. Once again, I want to thank you for joining us on the call and the webcast this morning, as well as your interest in Forestar. So I'd now like to open up the call for questions.