Martin Felipe Arias Yaniz
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you, Juan Carlos. Good morning, everyone. Let me begin by discussing our consolidated results for the second quarter of 2025. During the quarter, we delivered total revenue growth of 6.3% despite a challenging environment in Mexico, impacting both Proximity and Coca-Cola FEMSA, which was offset by solid top line trends outside Mexico, currency tailwinds and the consolidation of the OXXO USA operation. Operating income increased by only 1.2% year-over-year as the more challenging consumer environment in Mexico did not allow us to absorb the inflationary effects on our cost and expenses as effectively. In addition, our operations were geared to a stronger consumer environment than the one that materialized, plus our cost and expenses ran a bit ahead of actual volume and traffic. While this impacted profitability, we remained confident in our ability to navigate short-term headwinds by maintaining strong operational discipline and leveraging the solid fundamentals of our business. Net consolidated income decreased by 64.3% to MXN 5.6 billion, driven mainly by: one, a noncash foreign exchange loss of MXN 4.1 billion compared to a gain of MXN 6.1 billion last year, a swing of more than MXN 10 billion related to FEMSA's U.S. dollar-denominated cash position, which was negatively impacted by the sequential appreciation of the Mexican peso during the period, and #2, a lower interest income of MXN 2.1 billion compared to MXN 4.1 billion the previous year, reflecting lower interest rates. Turning to our operating results and beginning with the Proximity Americas division, overall, the division delivered mixed results this quarter, improving sequentially at the top line level, but still reflecting a challenging consumer environment in Mexico that was partially mitigated by a robust performance in our other markets in Latam. Same-store sales declined modestly by 0.4%, once again reflecting a combination of a solid average ticket growing 6.6%, offset by weaker traffic, which contracted 6.6% as well. It is worth noting that while same-store sales remained lackluster in Mexico, they grew nicely in OXXO Latam, increasing in the high teens even after accounting for foreign currency tailwinds. While these operations are small in relative terms, these are promising results. While we are encouraged by the team's ability to drive average ticket above inflation, leveraging our targeted promotional activities and the positive seasonal effect of larger baskets around Holy Week, the sustained weakness in traffic in Mexico is a clear focal point for our commercial initiatives as we start the second half of the year. As has been the case for several quarters now, the decline in average traffic was mainly attributable to a persistently weak consumer environment in Mexico, combined with atypically adverse weather conditions across the country. This hit some core convenience categories such as soft drinks, beer and tobacco particularly hard. On this point, our data suggests these convenience categories may have lost competitiveness relative to others across channels during the quarter. We believe this effect is not driven by SKU level pricing, but rather by the mix of presentations, such as multi-serve returnable beverages, smaller snack presentations and low-cost cigarette alternatives, which are clearly available in other channels such as the traditional trade but not at OXXO. Total revenues for Proximity Americas grew 6.9% or 2% on an organic and currency-neutral basis, mainly driven by the continued expansion of our network by 1,500 stores year-on-year, a strong performance in our Latam markets, the consolidation of OXXO USA as well as a favorable exchange rate. Gross margin remained stable at 44.1% and expanded by 120 basis points if we exclude the options outside Mexico. Operating income decreased by 2.8%, while operating margin decreased by 90 basis points to 9%. Operating expenses grew faster than revenues. However, it is worth noting that selling expenses, the biggest component of our OpEx grew in line with our expansion of 6.3%, thus reflecting our continued efforts to offset labor cost increases with greater FTE efficiency in the stores through the use of data analytics and new more flexible shift policies. On the expansion front, Proximity Americas added 334 net new stores in the quarter, in line with our plan. In the U.S., we continue to make progress in the conversion of DK stores into OXXOs, focusing currently on the Midland-Odessa and Lubbock Metro areas in West Texas, where we have converted 40 stores as of the end of the second quarter. Later in the year, we will begin the process in El Paso, applying the learnings from the earlier conversions. These include -- involve not just rebranding, but also the addition of several hundred SKUs, including our andatti coffee value proposition and early results in terms of incremental sales are promising. We will continue to test food concepts and to tweak the overall value proposition, and we will keep you updated on developments. At Bara, during the quarter, we continued our accelerated store expansion, opening 23 new stores, and we remain on track to achieve a 30% to 40% growth rate in 2025. We continue optimizing our discount value proposition while scaling our private label strategy. Bara same-store sales grew 8.9%, but they grew in the low teens if we exclude the convenience categories, reflecting the current consumer trends and consistent with the dynamics seen at OXXO. In Europe, Valora delivered solid results as total revenues increased by 31.4% in pesos or 5.9% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by a strong performance in our retail business in Switzerland, partially offset by lower sales in our B2B and B2C food service. We continue to focus on converting stores into the successful avec banner, which has proven to offer a compelling value proposition tailored to the evolving needs of consumers in the region. Originally launched in Switzerland, our avec format travels well across borders and presents an attractive opportunity for organic growth. Gross profits grew 25.6% in pesos or 1.2% currency neutral, representing a dilution of 190 basis points compared to last year due to the slowdown in our higher-margin B2C business as well as the impact of changes to the operating model with our retail operations. Valora reported a 54.4% increase in operating income, 24% on a currency-neutral basis, accompanied by a 70 basis point improvement in operating margin. This result reflects continued progress in cost discipline and operational efficiency across the business. Now let me walk you through the performance of our health division. Total revenues increased 15.6% in pesos with the same-store sales growing 13.1%, mostly explained by strong top line performance in Colombia and Ecuador, supported by favorable FX dynamics. On a currency-neutral basis, total revenues grew 6.7%. The growth in revenues occurred despite the continued challenging environment in Mexico, which saw same-store sales declines and the closure of 432 underperforming stores versus the same quarter in 2024. Operating income rose 5.7%, but declined 5.2% on a currency-neutral basis, resulting in an operating margin dilution of 30 basis points to 3.8%. This performance of operating income reflects onetime restructuring charges in Mexico and in Chile. The new management team has been in place for over 100 days and is well advanced in its diagnostic process, and they are taking some decisive actions to improve profitability. In addition to the closure of 432 underperforming stores in Mexico in the last 12 months, the team has executed a significant overhead reduction, which is reflected in the operating expenses. For its part, Colombia retail continued to show solid momentum driven by robust same-store sales growth, new store openings and improved mix towards retail versus institutional. While Ecuador delivered a strong set of results as it focused on expense control and revitalizing existing formats. Finally, Chile sales remained positive, but profits were flat due to overhead restructuring charges, which put pressure on margins. At OXXO Gas, same-station sales increased by 4.9% and total revenues grew by 0.6%, reflecting growth in retail volume, offset by a decline in the wholesale business. Gross margin stood at 12.6% and operating margin at 4.7% as we continue to look for further efficiencies and savings to support profitability in areas like labor and other selling expenses. Now moving to Coca-Cola FEMSA. During the quarter, revenues increased 5% in the face of adverse weather conditions and a tougher demand environment, particularly in Mexico and Central America, where volumes declined by nearly 10%, while lower operating leverage put pressure on profitability. Despite these temporary headwinds, Coca-Cola FEMSA remains well positioned to execute its strategy, leveraging recent investments to increase production and distribution capacity, along with a diverse brand portfolio to meet evolving consumer demands. For a detailed analysis of the results, you can access the webcast of the earnings call held last Wednesday. Before we close, let me give you a brief recap on capital allocation and our outlook for the second half of the year. As part of the FEMSA Forward plan, we successfully completed the divestiture of the bulk of our remaining logistics business on July 1. In terms of capital deployment, our top priority remains in investing and growing our core operations, which includes an ongoing multiyear investment plan across all business units to support long-term growth. Regarding shareholder remuneration, we remain on track with our commitment to deploy MXN 66 billion, approximately $3.2 billion between March 2025 and March 2026 through a combination of ordinary and extraordinary dividends as well as share repurchases. As of the end of July 2025, we have executed approximately $374 million in share buybacks, including repurchases in the local market and a $250 million accelerated share repurchase program, or ASR, which concluded last week. Additionally, we have paid out of the four installments of ordinary -- we have paid out two out of the four installments of ordinary and extraordinary dividends for the year, totaling nearly $1.2 billion. As of the second quarter, we reached a leverage ratio of 0.93x, excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA and have deployed $1.6 billion in extraordinary returns, representing half of the $3.2 billion commitment announced earlier this year. As we look ahead, we remain confident in the strength and resilience of our diversified portfolio, and we are maintaining our expectations for stable full year operating margins at Proximity Americas. Last Wednesday, Coca-Cola FEMSA shared a similar message maintaining their long-term perspectives unchanged, so we are directionally in sync. As we look at the next couple of quarters, we remain cautiously optimistic for the second half of the year, acknowledging potential volatility amid the soft macroeconomic environment. Beyond that, we believe our continued focus on operational discipline, strategic investments and rigorous capital allocation position us well to navigate the evolving consumer environment and deliver sustainable growth ahead. Finally, regarding our management succession, and as Jose Antonio mentioned during the February call, FEMSA's Board of Directors appointed a special committee for this purpose. The committee is currently working on this process, and we expect to have more news for you later in the year. And with that, we are ready to open the call for questions.