Eduardo Padilla
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to FEMSA's fourth quarter and full year 2017 results conference call. Juan Fonseca and Maria Dyla Castro are also with us today. As we usually do, we will focus the call on the consolidated figures for FEMSA and on FEMSA's commercial results since many of you probably had the opportunity to participate in Coca-Cola FEMSA's conference call last Thursday. So we want to use the call to try to add some color and some qualitative elements to the discussion, as well as to hear your views and answer your questions. Hopefully you will find it useful. Generally speaking, the fourth quarter looked a lot like the third quarter as we mentioned in the press release. FEMSA's commercial retail division continue to open new OXXO stores at a rapid pace. While same-store sales grew in the mid single-digit reflecting the resilient, but gradually moderating consumer environment in Mexico. Retail division grew its revenues at a low single-digit rate, but managed to expand its margins; driven by operations in South America while retail division continued its gradual recovery and profitability. For this part, Coca-Cola FEMSA realized healthy pricing in Mexico and Argentina as well as encouraging volume growth in Brazil, Central America and the Philippines. Reading down in the numbers and moving onto discuss FEMSA's consolidated quarterly results. Total revenues and income from operations to the fourth quarter increased 11.5%. On organic basis total revenues increased 3.5% and income from operations increased 6.5%. As you already know from Coke FEMSA's disclosure and conference call held last week, the accounting change for Venezuela required a reclassification from a charge in equity on the balance sheet to a non-cash, non-recurring impact on the income statement of the IFRS rules, we generated a net loss for the quarter. This impact from Coca-Cola FEMSA Venezuela was partially offset a foreign exchange gain related to higher US Dollar denominated cash position of FEMSA mainly coming from the sale of our portion of Heineken shares during the month of September has impacted by the depreciation of the Mexican Peso during the quarter. In terms of our consolidated net debt position during the fourth quarter it reached MXN 28 billion at the end of December. Moving onto discuss our operations and beginning with FEMSA commercial retail. We opened 527 net new OXXO stores during the fourth quarter, reaching 1,301 net store opening in 2017 and representing a new milestone for our expansion team. Revenues increased 10.1% OXXO same-store sales were up 4.7% driven by a 2.7% increase in average customer ticket and increased of 1.9% in-store traffic. This increase came on top of a very good tough comparison base of 8.6% growth a year ago. On the subject of ticket, as was the case in the previous quarter we continued to see a change in mix coming from the fast growth of our service category that tends to have a low ticket. And therefore boost our average ticket a little bit down. One important component of that continues to be financial services, which keeps delivering double-digit growth. Moving down to P&L for the fourth quarter gross margin expanded 20 basis points due to expansion mainly reflect healthy trends in our commercial income activity and the sustained growth of the service category including income from financial services as I just described. In terms of operating margin this quarter the retail division posted a contraction of 30 basis points reflecting first a sustained increased in electricity charges year-over-year second high secured car transportation cost driven by the increased volume and higher fuel prices for the year. And third, our continue initiative to reduce turnover of our key in-store personnel. Moving onto FEMSA's commercial health, during the quarter we added 47 drugstores to reach 2,225 units across the territories at the end of 2017. Revenues increased 2.3% with low single-digit growth in same-store sales driven by South America. Gross margin expanded 120 basis points reflecting positive sales mix of as well as more effective collaboration and execution with key suppliers. Operating margin expanded by 10 basis points in the fourth quarter. Finally, FEMSA's commercial fuel added 55 gas stations during the fourth quarter to reach 453 units at the end of December representing 70 net new service stations in 2017. 10 station sales grew 16.7% in the fourth quarter as average price per liter increased by 19.9%. Reflecting national price increases instituted at the beginning of the year 2017, while average volume decreased by 2.7% attracting some demand elasticity while still better than the industry. Because I think industry went down around 4.5%. Gross margin expanded by 10 basis points and operating margin expanded by 20 points year-over-year the effecting expense on payment and operation efficiencies. Talking briefly in Coca-Cola FEMSA reported top line increased 11.6% during the fourth quarter including the result of Vonpar and the impact from the consolidated of Philippines. Real pricing in most markets help us offset currency pressure and volume trends were encouraging in the Philippines, Argentina and increasingly in Brazil. However, profitability was in some stress reflecting hired labor, trade and fuel cost in certain markets. Certainly and as we mentioned at the top of the call, a big add in Coke FEMSA's quarterly results was a non-cash reclassification related to Venezuela operation. For more detail on that and the rest of the number you can access a replay of the conference call, webcast from last Thursday. Finally, let me talk a little bit about broad expectations for the year end that begins. In our key Mexican market there are numbers of elements that make us forecast in 2018 a bit tricky? On the positive side, we'll begin with inflation which after little price, into levels not seen in years is beginning to abate and divert to more normalized levels. Whether it continues to come down and how fast it will impact consumer sentiment which has been softening in recent quarters. Another factor that will be speed of interest rate increases in the United States to response of the Mexican Central Bank and ultimately the FX on the Peso-Dollar exchange rate. We must also keep an eye on employment trend and how these in turn affect the consumer. I think the employment terms came out yesterday and few are very high for them as well for the Mexican market. Normally, a year with General Elections and FIFA World Cup will bode well for consumption particularly for OXXO. However the uncertainty regarding this year's presidential race and the FIFA many of the World Cup matches will take place at odd hours in Mexico, make us less bullish about the positive contribution of this event in 2017 compared with the results in 2014. Finally there is a question of [indiscernible] negotiation hanging over us and the possibility that the process may drag out much later in the year or even in 2019. We continued to deliver better decisions and dampen confidence. So this is our long way to say that, we're more cautious about the consumer environment in Mexico, in the coming months and quarters that we would normally be. Having said all that let me give you some directional expectations for our business unit. For FEMSA Comercio retail we expect openings to be in line with 2017 around 1,300 units with some offsite potential as we always try to improve on the previous year's numbers. In terms of OXXO same-store sales growth, we should remain within our long-term expected range of middle single-digit growth with stable operating margin with a caveat that our margins are very sensitive to sales and therefore the uncertainty I mentioned around consumer sentiment may affect our margins in new direction. In the meantime, we have already put in a place a number of revenue and profitability related initiatives across FEMSA Comercio to maximize our ability, to meet or exceed our plans for the year. Finally, there is also timing component that we need to be aware of. Given that the Holy Week will shift from April last year to March this year and we can improve offer prospects for the first quarter and soften the expectations for the second quarter. For FEMSA Comercio health in Mexico we tend to recover in profitability over accelerated unit growth throughout the year. While our Chilean operation should see a somewhat challenging start to the year but improved towards the second half, we expect same-store sales for the year to grow in the mid single-digit and after adjusting for currencies in terms of margins, we should see stable to slightly expanding operating margins for the division. We start the Fuel Divisions enters in 2019 [ph] with an improved outlook relative to where we were at this time of the year, given that the industry is now behaving more like a functional retail market where scale and retail expertise begin to make a difference. Therefore, we should accelerate our rate of station adding, expecting to increase our base by 20% to 25%. Operationally, we will have an initial comparison base during the first half of the year and particularly in the second quarter, but for the full year we expect double-digit revenue growth and stable to slightly expanding operating margin. For Coca-Cola FEMSA I failed to mention [indiscernible] week in Mexico we should see a slower start of the year based on tough comparable base with second half improving as we see easier comps on the context of more muted consumer environment as we have discussed. In Brazil, we're optimistic that the recovery will continue and we're also beat about the outlook in Argentina and Central America. Colombia continues to be a work in progress and of course Venezuela will no longer will longer distort our consolidated result. It will also be interesting to see, how volumes have grown in the Philippines post price increase because of the tax things in Philippines and while adjustments we'll be able to make there going forward. In terms of capital expenditures we expect the consolidated amount for this year to be in line with 2017 in dollar terms. This incorporates a flat number of Coca-Cola FEMSA and a sliding number retail in local currency. With delta related mainly for faster growth in our distribution center network and accelerated expansion in the fuel business. Summing up, we're cautious of the consumer environment in Mexico, but we're confident our ability to execute and in our strategy and to impact the variables that are in our control. We also have the high quality program, we're having to better allocate consumer [ph] level capital, over horizontal growth strategy exercising discipline as we grow our platform across market with a view on value creation. So plenty of changes ahead, but we love challenges and we can often turn them into opportunities. And will try to do that again this year and beyond. And with that, we can open to the call for your questions. Operator?