Earnings Labs

FMC Corporation (FMC)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 4, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call for FMC Corporation. This event is being recorded and all participants are in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's prepared remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] And I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Curt Brooks, Director of Investor Relations for FMC Corporation. Please go ahead.

Curt Brooks

Analyst

Thanks. Good afternoon, and welcome to FMC Corporation's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Joining me today are Pierre Brondeau, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Andrew Sandifer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Ronaldo Pereira, President. Pierre will review our fourth quarter performance, provide an outlook for first quarter and full year 2025 performance, and share our 2027 financial targets. Andrew will provide an overview of select financial results, followed by a strategy update from Ronaldo. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions. Our earnings release and today's slide presentation are available on our website and the prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call. Let me remind you that today's presentation and discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including but not limited to those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgment based on today's understanding. Actual results may vary based upon these risks and uncertainties. Today's discussion and the supporting materials will include references to adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and organic revenue growth, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please note that as used in today's discussion, earnings means adjusted earnings and EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. A reconciliation and definition of these terms as well as other non-GAAP financial terms to which we may refer during today's conference call are provided on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Pierre.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

Thank you, Curt, and good afternoon, everyone. When I returned as CEO, we started the process to improve the market visibility and deliver a more predictable performance for FMC. Equally important, we also focused the organization on defining and implementing a diamized growth strategy and accelerating the introductions of fluindapyr and Isoflex active, all while increasing our cost-cutting targets. We are making good headways here and delivered two strong quarters with earnings above our guidance. The work we have done has also led to a new way of thinking about the portfolio with products being considered as either part of our core portfolio or growth portfolio. Framing the products, as you can see on slide three, in this way, we'll shape a lot our commentary on today's call. Our efforts to improve market visibility and deliver more predictable performance have progressed. However, after eight months in a row, I have modified my view of what needs to be done for FMC to fully benefit from the market upturn when it happens and the quality of the portfolio. The company needs a stronger reset than what I thought initially. We learned a lot in the fourth quarter and it has become clear that we need to take more aggressive actions to reposition FMC. Above all, we need to significantly lower FMC inventory in the channel much beyond what we were expecting. We also need to give a higher priority to the implementation of a newly developed strategy for Rynaxypyr and Cyazypyr, including accelerating the implementation of the manufacturing cost-reduction efforts. These actions will have pronounced negative impact on 2025 performance -- financial performance beyond what we anticipated. Additionally, we will need to provide additional resources to strengthen the commercial development of new active ingredients or AIs, which is critical to 2025…

Andrew Sandifer

Analyst

Thanks, Pierre. Before I get into the normal review of key financial results, let me start this afternoon with an update on our restructuring program on slide 10. When we initially announced our restructuring program in late 2023, we targeted delivering $50 million to $75 million of net savings in the 2024 P&L with $150 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2025, both measured against the 2023 baseline. As we progress through 2024, we identified a number of areas where we could move more aggressively to reduce our cost structure, raising our targets at our second-quarter earnings call and again on our third-quarter call to $125 million to $150 million in 2024 net savings and more than $225 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2025. While there were many factors that contributed to these increased targets, the biggest factor was a major revamping of sourcing for raw materials for our diamide products. I'm pleased to report that we exceeded our increased targets, finishing 2024 with net savings delivered in the P&L of $165 million, largely in operating expenses, but with savings, and cost-of-goods-sold as well. We also now have a clear line-of-sight to run-rate savings of more than $250 million by the end of 2025 with a very significant contribution from lower-cost of goods. Our restructuring program has impacted every part of the company, resulting in fundamental changes in our operating model, including how we are organized, where we operate, and the way we work. While we do have some remaining in-flight projects to finish delivering the full savings run-rate in 2025, we've incorporated the expected year-on-year benefits of our restructuring actions in our outlook for 2025. As such, we consider our restructuring program to be essentially complete and we will ensure delivery of the remaining…

Ronaldo Pereira

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew. I want to start off by providing an update on our diamide strategy, which is supported by slides 14 through 21. As we look ahead, it's clear that our commercial strategy is evolving, driven primarily by the upcoming patent expirations, particularly for Rynaxypyr. While this presents challenges, we see it as an opportunity to transform, compete, and advance in new ways. Like other products that transition to the post-patent phase of life, when we look back at the makeup of our diamides business years from now, it will look much different than it does today. Over the past several quarters, we have spoken to the broad strategy for these products as they shift to their post-patent lifecycle. At a high level, the strategy that we've communicated, which you can see on slide 15, is that we will continue to offer the basic solo formulations under the trusted FMC brand names at lower price points to compete with generics entry in the market. At the same time, we will offer high-value versions of diamides via new often patented formulations and mixtures. This evening, I'll share in more detail how we're enacting to this strategy, and share how we see the next few years unfolding for this product class. Going forward, you will hear us start talking about the two distinct products, Rynaxypyr and Cyazypyr, rather than just simply referring to them as the lead diamides as we've done in the past. Both products are very potent tools for growers to control insects. But as you can see in slide 16, there are some key differences between the two products. Rynaxypyr has a more limited spectrum, but that spectrum is focused on controlling lepidoptera insects or caterpillars, which is the most valuable addressable market at nearly $5 billion. Cyazypyr, on…

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

Thank you, Ronaldo. Our 2027 targets are laid out on slide 23. We are focusing here on the growth of the company post-2025, which we believe will act as a correction year to reposition our portfolio. The growth rates post-2025 are more representative of the future growth of FMC. The sales of our core portfolio from '24 to '27 are expected to grow at 2% per year. Following the 2025 correction year, we expect total Rynaxypyr growth in the high-single-digit. The rest of the core portfolio is forecasted to grow at the market rate of about 3% every year. Our growth portfolio is expected to grow at an annual rate of about 24% from '24 to '27. Following the '25 correction year, Cyazypyr growth is projected to be in the low to mid-teens with growth of both branded and partner sales. The new active ingredients are expected to reach $600 million by 2027. The growth will mostly come in from fluindapyr and Isoflex with a small contribution of Dodhylex based on the launch calendar. The plant health growth rate is expected to be in the mid-20% range with a potentially high-growth pheromones product expected to meaningfully accelerate growth of plant health after 2027. From '24 to '27, the growth portfolio contribution to total company sales is expected to grow from 19% of total company to 30%. Looking beyond 2027, the ramp-up of Dodhylex and the addition of new products such as expanded biological offerings, the pheromones, and the new dual-mode of action herbicide rimisoxafen will all contribute to further growth for the company. Combining the core and growth portfolio leads to expected 2027 sales of about $5.2 billion. EBITDA is expected to be about $1.2 billion, equating to a 23% EBITDA margin, which is at the higher end of our industry. This is a revenue annual growth of 7% from '24 to '27 with EBITDA growth at 10%. From '25 to '27, revenue grows at an annual rate of 11% with EBITDA growing at 15% rate. We are highly confident in the growth path of the company. This confidence comes from the already strong performance of our growth portfolio. I believe FMC has the strongest pipeline in its history. But we are also conscious that taking full advantage of it requires a repositioning of the company in 2025. That is why we will realign our inventory level, implement the newly developed diamide strategy, and invest in our sales organization to support a growth portfolio and develop new routes to market. We can now open the line for questions.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

Vincent Andrews

Analyst

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Pierre, could you help us understand how you expect Rynaxypyr from 2026 and beyond to evolve. You're talking about high-single-digit sales growth, but could you maybe help us think about the shape of volume and price over the coming years? And within that, could you let us know your view of price gaps and how you expect to manage them as the generics proliferate? Thank you very much.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

Sure. From a pricing standpoint, we believe we are in place right now, where we can compete with generics at the price we understand at the -- at the price which are being practiced by generic companies as reported in the latest import data we have. So, there are two aspects of it. There is the aspect of the market where we will sell a solo molecule. And there, we will have to make a decision of how deep we go into this market to go further into hectares, which are lower-cost -- using lower-cost product and to decide where we go and how much of this market we decide to take versus today where we do not have any of this market. So that's what a lower manufacturing cost and new pricing will allow us to do to expand the market we will reach in term of hectares by going after different type of pesticides. Then there is the high-end, as you've seen on the slide presented by Ronaldo, we are actively working on new mixtures of products, which are increasing the efficacy of the product, fighting the resistance, and those products will allow us to differentiate ourselves from the solo molecule, which will have a way less efficacy and do that at a price premium. And finally, we're going to be developing products, which will be beneficial from a cost standpoint for us and growers, we talk about high concentration and pallets. So it's a mixture of moving products in two directions. One is to the higher-end with the high-level formulation, which are significantly increasing the efficacy of the product together with having the capability to expand to lower-end market because we will have a much lower price allowing us to go into those markets.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS. You may proceed.

Josh Spector

Analyst · UBS. You may proceed.

Yes, hi. I had a question on your volume guidance for 2025. So, a lot of the prepared remarks talk about weakness at the end of the year, more channel inventory you're dealing with in first quarter, and that's clear in your 1Q guidance. But if our math is correct, it looks like you're expecting volume growth of something like high single digits for 2025 as a year. Previously, you talked about that as 5%, something in that range. So it just seems really odd to us that you're increasing confidence in volumes when the near-term outlook looks a lot worse than you previously anticipated. So can you help us out there, please?

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst · UBS. You may proceed.

Yes, absolutely. It's a very appropriate question. We are -- one of the very key decisions we've made is to lower the inventory of FMC products in the channel. So all of the core products we have or the product part of the core portfolio, we're going to make sure that we are selling more on the ground than we are selling into the channel. Initially, when we gave some directional numbers, we talked about a volume growth in the 6% range. Today, we are at a higher number. But it is a strategy we have developed during the fourth quarter when we understood better the market we were facing. If you think about when we talked about 6%, we are thinking more out of a general growth of the demand from the market, which would have recovered. Here we are excluding that part of the growth. And if you think about the range of growth, it is something like $250 million to $350 million. That's the kind of range we talk about today in terms of volume growth, 75% of that is coming from a growth portfolio and it is coming from -- mostly from the new molecules, the new AIs and also from the biological product. The rest is coming, and the vast majority of the remaining growth is coming from the plant health portfolio. So there is very little growth in the $250 million to $350 million growth, which is coming from the core portfolio. So it's a very different profile. It's a very different approach. There is a downside to it, let's face it, it requires investment in the first quarter to develop a new sales organization to go after the growth in the new routes, which is more direct sales to large growers, but it's a very different growth profile than what we're expecting and where we intend to grow, the 250 to 350 do-not-touch places where we have high inventory level.

Andrew Sandifer

Analyst · UBS. You may proceed.

If I may add to that, Pierre, Josh, we are investing in expanding and exploring new routes to market. The combination of new products and new customers, that is really where the growth comes from. It is not from traditional products and traditional customers. As we just stated that our focus there is actually to decrease the existing inventory. So, it's new products to new customers driving the volume growth.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

Chris Parkinson

Analyst · Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

Hey guys. I was just hoping you could help me triangulate a few things. It just seems like the 1Q guide is the vast majority of the delta of what the Street was increasingly kind of factoring in for your '25 guidance. And we all understand there's a lot going on with Brazilian credit and increasing competition not only across the big six, but also generics within the Americas, wholesale-retail holding less inventory. But just can you help us just given even Latin-America is a smaller portion of the first calendar quarter, just what's your confidence 2Q onwards that you're doing everything in FMC's power to ensure that you can ultimately hit that annual guide, if not exceed it once all the dust settles? Thank you.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst · Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

I think Chris, I would say the first quarter number are showing that we are taking very significant market approach to a lower level of FMC products in the channel. So certainly our numbers for the first quarter are showing that we're going to have a very, very prudent approach to the market with a high focus on preparing the following quarters. The second-half of the year will also benefit a lot of the new products, the new route to market for the new product, because lots of the registration except the U.S. are coming from countries in Latin-America where you will have the growing season and the new routes-to-market with the new growers we are targeting are also in Latin-America. So the two actions, structuring our sales for growth in the second half plus the actions we are taking in the first half of the year should make us successful to deliver what we are planning in the second half of the year. Do you want to add something, Andrew?

Andrew Sandifer

Analyst · Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

Yes. Chris, I'd just add as well just that as Pierre commented, we do have some major timing shifts in the U.S. business happening this year as well that calls for some shift of sales we would normally expect to make in Q1 to happen later in the year. So, I think that's a part of this low Q1 and stronger Q2 through Q4 that you're pointing to in your question. It is that combination of both the back-end weighted new product growth that Pierre mentioned, the actions we're taking earlier in the year, broadly speaking to reduce channel inventories. And then finally, the bit of the change in sequence during the year of sales in the U.S. market with later replenishment by growers and retailers pulling from distribution.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

Richard Garchitorena

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

Great. Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. I just wanted to touch on the pricing outlook. And it looks like in the fourth quarter, you saw pricing decline across basically most of the segments -- most of the regions with the exception of EMEA. In terms of the outlook, you talked about cost-plus contract adjustments. Was that in any specific region? How is pricing currently in Latin-America, which has been the weakest, I guess that you had been seeing? And then when you look at the 2027 revenue guide, is expectations that these contracts are reset in '25, and then they're going to be flat to potentially higher as we move forward over the next couple of years? Thank you.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

So, to answer your last question about the contract, there is for some of the very critical contracts, an indexation of the pricing to customers to a manufacturing cost. The biggest jump in terms of lowering our manufacturing cost is taking place now from '24 to '25. After '25, we're going to have incremental evolution of our cost, which will go lower and beyond where we will be in '25, but not at all to the same extent. So there will be less of an impact of the price adjustment to the technical sales in '26 and '27 versus '25 as most of the hit will be taken in 2025. From a pricing standpoint, I think the guidance we are giving and Andrew, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the guidance we're giving for 2025 is 3% with about two-thirds of that coming from those manufacturing contract or those sales contract to our partners. Now, Q4, -- about Q4 and the 3% decline, which was slightly better than what we were expecting. And that's related to the comment I made initially, we had good line of sight in the fourth quarter to deliver the EBITDA and the EPS. We decided to walk away from sales when there was too much of a demand for price or term. We did not want to get into a situation where we would be competing at any cost to go as high as we could on the selling front, and just rather stayed below the number we gave as our expectation from a price decrease knowing that we could deliver earnings without doing it.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Arun Viswanathan with RBC. You may proceed.

Arun Viswanathan

Analyst

Great, thanks for taking my question, understanding that you guys have done a lot of work to get inside the channel a little bit more, it sounds like you will be continuing to increase your visibility there. But maybe you can just highlight, Pierre, some of the some of the learnings that you have found there. It sounds like that was an area of particular interest, but now you're also shifting your strategy as well, and further solidifying the growth versus core strategy. But what else are you doing on the inventory side to get a better handle on the channel? And will all of those issues, you know be mainly addressed through your Q1 actions? Thanks.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

Yes, thank you. I would say that most of our inventory actions are going to take place in the first half. I think that's -- that it will take more than one quarter. We're going to be very aggressive in the first quarter, we will carry that on the second quarter. I think, there are two issues I did not personally appreciate in the first couple of months I was here. I focused a lot on the overall inventory, but there is clearly some places for different reasons where we would have higher than the average inventory level, higher FMC inventory level. So we have now identified and it's a country per country set of action, and it's going to be India, it's going to be Brazil, it's Eastern Europe, it's Asian. So we have a series of six or seven countries where we went in-depth to tackle the inventory issue. And the way we truly realized that was going through studying the selling process and why things were not happening the way we were expecting. There is also the fact we spent a lot of time talking to our customers that we are dealing with a moving target. Inventory target at the end of the season, we believe is not the same today as it was in the past. I think people are -- I mean, there is some region, I'll give you an example, there is some regions where people were comfortable ending the season in the 30%, 35% range of a full-year or full-season inventory at the end of the season. Most people now are targeting the 20%, 25% range. So, it's a moving target. So we have to deal with those two issues, the moving target in terms of what our customers want plus the identified places, maybe six or seven countries, but including some large countries like India and Brazil, where there is specifically high level of FMC inventory.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ben Theurer with Barclays. You may proceed.

Ben Theurer

Analyst · Barclays. You may proceed.

Yes, good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to kind of get a little bit more of the -- like medium-term picture. And as you think about the rollout and the cadence for '25 then into '26, obviously, with the backdrop of what you've just guided for Q1. So if things move the way you suspect right now, and as you would have to anticipate maybe a little bit of that step-in between versus what is this year's outlook and the '27 path to it, how should we think about the cadence into 2026, just given the rollout of products and your ability to gain back some market-share and to gain some -- back some customers that seem to be lost for now.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst · Barclays. You may proceed.

Yes, I think the -- it is not -- if I look at the three-year plan, it's not a back -- back-end-loaded three-year plan excuse me, you will see significant improvement of the numbers starting in 2026. The new products, you've seen the numbers shown by Ronaldo going to $600 million. It's going to be a pretty evenly growth you're going to see over the three-year period. The new routes-to-market, we hope to be ready to have that in place in the second quarter to start to be very active in the third quarter and be even more implanted in 2026. So certainly there is an acceleration of the growth from '26 to '27, but you will -- there will be a significant step-up coming from a correction year. By '26, we will benefit from a market growth of the core business and the full growth of our growth business. So it is not a back-end type of three-year plan.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. You may proceed.

Steve Byrne

Analyst

Yes, thank you. For Rynaxypyr volumes in 2025, what are you expecting the percent decline to be? And what was the change in your outlook for the global market versus your prior expectations? Was this primarily due to just greater-than-expected capacity expansions in China? Is that what was the primary change? And if so, why do you think you could get back to high single digit growth in 2026?

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

Yes. I think we want to be careful in not talking about specific percentage for products. In next year, we do expect Rynaxypyr to be down both branded Rynaxypyr and Rynaxypyr sold to our partners. We do expect Cyazypyr sales, branded Cyazypyr sales to be up. Going forward, I think, first, the different thinking we have about the Rynaxypyr business is twofold. First, we believe that we can expand with a new manufacturing cost. The market we can address with Rynaxypyr as a solo molecule formulation. Like I talked about, we talked about Dodhylex or we talked about the high concentration or the mixtures -- with mixture partners. So we do believe that we can expand the number of acres where we can be competitive, and we can also improve the efficacy of this product, allowing us to go to market, which will be beneficial from a usage standpoint to growers. So, we do believe to play in a much larger market starting this year and mostly in 2026 than we've done before without moving away from staying in the high-end with specific formulation, which are giving benefits to growers. To your questions around the change in the landscape, what I believe is, like it is very often the case, when you have a patent protection, which is a composition of matter, that is very solid across the world. When you have a patent protection, which is process-based, not all jurisdiction or countries do have the same attitude towards those patents. And I believe that with India and China starting to sell products, even if we are taking legal actions, and even if there is a high probability, we will win those legal actions, there is no injunction. Competitors are not stopped by court and that gave the example and the courage to those companies to expand that behavior into other countries, and that's why we saw them coming into Argentina, for example, into Turkiye. So I think there is an expansion when you are just one year away from the end of your process patent protection where people are less worried about the legal action we could be taking and it's happening -- it's happening maybe faster than what we're expecting.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research. You may proceed.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst · Fermium Research. You may proceed.

Thank you and good afternoon. I want to come back to the price question. Pierre, you indicated that two-thirds of the price decline you're anticipating to come from the manufacturing contracts with your diamide partners. So if you could talk a little bit about the other third where you're seeing the price declines in that area. But coming back to the diamide partners, am I to understand that as you improve your manufacturing process, that you are giving that back to the diamide partners. So as you spend money to improve your manufacturing for the restructuring costs, et cetera, that is flowing through in a lower -price to the diamide partners. I mean, I certainly can understand if raw-material costs come down and so forth that, that would flow-through to your partners. But I was just struck that it sounded like it was also if you're making improvements and spending money to do so that you're giving some of that up. So any color there would be very helpful. Thank you.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst · Fermium Research. You may proceed.

Absolutely. So yes, the contract we have with those diamide partners are the fact that -- and once again, it's not all of them. There is some of our diamide partners where we have a very different cost structure. But important diamide partners to have what we call a cost-plus, which is not the exact terminology that's a fact we -- the way we called it, but the pricing is indexed on our manufacturing cost. And it is a commercial decision we have taken. You know, we knew that over time, those partners would have the choice between working with us, and working with people who potentially would come with price, which would be more competitive. So, when you say mid-term, long-term contract with those partners, they're willing to stay with you, but they also have to be sure that their source of product will remain competitive. So in some cases, there is no cost plus contract, but then what you end up doing is having a commercial negotiation every year or every other year when the contract has to be renewed with some other partners, we do have longer-term contracts. And one of the benefits they get is they give us longer-term contract and we give us a guarantee that we will optimize the price even if we are the one spending money to lower the cost. It's just a commercial practice. We have to secure some large contracts with important partners over a longer period of time. Regarding the -- regarding the remaining the one-third of the price decrease, it is actually, we believe some of the normal market competitiveness, which will still exist for the time being until the market has completely recovered. And the fact that in Asia, we still are in a very, very competitive situation where the -- and especially India, where the channel is very full. So I would say, it's not as simple as two-thirds technical -- what we call technical product sales to a partner and one-third of Asia, but it's not far from being the truth.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners. You may proceed.

Mike Harrison

Analyst · Seaport Research Partners. You may proceed.

Hi, good evening. I was hoping, Ronaldo, given your experience in Latin America, maybe you can give us a little bit more detail on the changes that you're seeing in the Latin America distribution channel, I know that your restructuring plan included some rightsizing of the organization in Brazil. And now it sounds like you're seeing a need to invest in new routes to markets or different ways to access that market. So can you help us understand what has changed in the market and also what has changed about your approach to the market in Latin America and your organization? Thank you.

Andrew Sandifer

Analyst · Seaport Research Partners. You may proceed.

Sure, Michael. A few years ago, the retail distribution system went through a consolidation, a wave of consolidation. And some of the consolidators started acquiring some retailers that were family-owned businesses, very traditional and small -- covering small territories. And these platforms became large and very diverse in terms of geographic expansion, and also the making of their, I'll call, network for the lack of better name. What we have seen is that the market-share that some of those original businesses had with our products is not the same that we are seeing with the consolidators today. Because the market is evolving, the compliance need is different, the credit requirements are different. And as a result of that, there are more and more growers going directly to companies or we could put in reverse as well more and more companies going direct to growers, and approaching them directly and establishing that direct relationship between manufacturers and large growers. You may ask well and why didn't you follow that wave before or you adjusted before? And the answer is actually pretty simple. To go -- I'm talking about soybean and corn and to go and approach growers directly, you need a technology that is specifically important to those growers. We now have it. I talked about fluindapyr and I talked about that product being a key tool in controlling Asia's soybean rust. There are new -- renewed brands and versions of our diamides. We are now approaching those growers with some new technology to show them. So the difference between where we were before optimizing and now that we're making investments is; one, when we rightsized it the organization, we rightsized it to the total size of the market. Now the type of investments that we're making, the people that are joining the company are people that are more skilled on soybean and corn, segments that we didn't serve before, and especially approaching directly growers not focusing 100% on retailers. In other words, though the skills are not the same, and the fact that we let go people before and now we are adding, it's not the same type of people, it's just different skills, different networks and different connections that are required to implement this new stage of the strategy. But I do want to stress, we can only do that now because we have the right technologies to do so.

Operator

Operator

The last question comes from Kevin McCarthy with VRP. You may proceed.

Kevin McCarthy

Analyst

Yes, thank you and good evening. Pierre, if I look at slide number eight, you're guiding to adjusted EBITDA that's either side of flat, and that is the case, notwithstanding what looks to be $175 million to $200 million of favorability on COGS. I think you have additional restructuring benefits flowing through as well? So my question would be, can you speak to some of the headwinds that would cause the flat EBITDA? I do see the foreign exchange that you quantified, or perhaps you could speak to the level of the incremental investments that you're making in SG&A to go direct in Latin America and other cost headwinds that would complete the bridge, so to speak.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

Sure. I think I would say there are multiple ways to look at it, but there are three key headwinds. One is price with what we explained around the price we have to give back to our -- to some of our partners on diamide. So, price is overall $130 million, I think in the range of $130 million of headwind. And secondly, we do have FX, which is much beyond what we would have thought a few months ago in the range of about $70 million. And we believe we're going to be investing in the first quarter about $25 million to create a new sales organization. So, you have here about $200 million to $250 million of headwind for the three main ones. Andrew, have I missed any or those are the three biggest ones?

Andrew Sandifer

Analyst

Yes, that's the biggest one. And obviously, we did forgo about $25 million in the profit we've made in the GSS business in the prior year that obviously we won't have this year finish out the…

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

That's a full thing.

Andrew Sandifer

Analyst

Smaller piece.

Pierre Brondeau

Analyst

So those together go beyond $250 million.

Operator

Operator

Yes. This concludes the FMC Corporation conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.